Wilson vs. Kaep straight up.... who do you take?

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Wilson or Kaepernick?

Wilson
181
92%
Kaepernick
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Total votes : 197

  • Disp wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:If he had 2 sacks on 2 plays and wasn't the only QB on the field, I'd be willing to discount them. Despite what Disp thinks about me, I'm being reasonable about it. Call sack average on the year a wash, then. We'll focus on the fumbles, which are more important, anyways.


    I agree about the fumbles; they're a problem that needs to be fixed, and Wilson definitely fumbles less. Kaepernick is doing what every single QB in history, including Wilson does in their first few games, and that's either fumbling or throwing picks. You're straight up bending statistics to fit your agenda and being dishonest about it though. My point from the beginning is they're both great qb's with bright futures, and Wilson is not on a whole different tier that Kaepernick might never get to like you've been saying.


    Couldn't have said it better. Its like they think Wilson is Montana and Kaep is just a fad. Another poster talkes about Wilsons intangibles (which I agree he has) as if Kaep has none. The dude doesn't get nervous. Ever. He destroyed the mighty Chicago Bear D in his first career start. He played very well in his very first road game in the freakin Superdome. He went to Foxborough and calmly threw 4 TDs in December where no visiting team had won since 2002 and where no QB not named Brady or Manning has ever thrown 4 TDs.

    He has a QB rating over 100 through his first 5 starts.

    Its like people on here give it up for his physical talents and assume he doesn't have the rest. The kid scored in the high 30 on the Wonderlick. He is a model citizen. He is deeply religious (and I am not, but I respect his beliefs). People rip him for his Tats (nobody I have seen on this board), but they are all verses from the bible. The guy works his a$$ off non-stop. He went to college at 175 lbs and is now pushing 235 lbs. After practice, he straps weights to his chest and back and does windsprints. He 's incredibly respectful of the game and other players and just tries to soak up everything he can.

    I read one national writer call him Cam Newton without the attitude.

    I'm not saying all this because I expect everyone to become Kaepernick fans or because I expect you to think he's the second coming. I say it because your assumptions are way off-base (and I know it ain't all of you).

    For years, the NFC West has been ridiculed as the NFC Least. That ain't the deal anymore. Sam Bradford is now probably the 3rde best QB in the division....and it ain't close. (We as a division) for the most part completely obliterated the AFC East including going 3-1 vs the Pats.

    Our 2 teams in particular are in for some titanic struggles in the future (starting Sunday Night) and I think some of you need to realize that the 49ers achilles heal (QB) isn't a weakness anymore.

    Russell Wilson is having one hell of a rookie year. There is no question, but ya'll need to start realizing that he ain't the only young QB who is making a huge statement in the division.
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  • I think both QBs look good and both fan bases are extremely happy with the guy they have.
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  • hedgehawk wrote:I think both QBs look good and both fan bases are extremely happy with the guy they have.


    Thats totally fair. :D
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  • This threads shark was jumped pages ago
    Hey Cardinals..........The FUN is OVER !!!
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  • Do 49er fans realize they aren't being forced to post here?

    edit: couldn't have picked a better 6000th post :D
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  • AbsolutNET wrote:Do 49er fans realize they aren't being forced to post here?

    edit: couldn't have picked a better 6000th post :D


    Of Course!!

    The OP asked for 49ers fans, so I obliged.
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  • Let's see...I'd take Wilson because of his leadership ability, work ethic, poise under pressure, intelligence and decision making skills. I'll leave all the stats and numbers to the rest of you. What I've seen from RW, his ability to forget a bad play and progress from one game to the next is unbelievable. It seems like when PC has him focus on one part of his game, it is fixed within a game or two (not bailing out so much, throwing in the pocket, read-option). I see him as the type of player where you can throw anything at him and he'll adapt, respond, and challenge himself to rise above it.

    I'm pretty sure you guys (Niners fans) are perfectly happy with Kap, as you should be. He's a damn good QB and like RW, he's going to continue to get better. But I'm happy with RW and wouldn't change it for ANYTHING.

    and one more thing...I don't understand why anybody would want to go to a rival's forum and argue about your respective QB's. That's like trying to discuss politics or religion to me. That ish is just going to go in circles.
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  • Dangit it's impossible to separate out homerism from these posts.
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  • AbsolutNET wrote:Do 49er fans realize they aren't being forced to post here?

    edit: couldn't have picked a better 6000th post :D


    I think most of the 49ers fans' posting would've been avoided if you guys would copy/paste stats instead of copy/paste and adding 2. A little bit of honesty goes a long way :).
    Last edited by Disp on Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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  • I say this as someone who liked both QBs coming out of college.

    Wilson's feel for the game is miles ahead of Kaepernick's. He progresses through reads with more frequency and without any discomfort. Kaepernick is pretty much a pure 1 read QB- he has shown the ability to switch reads on deep throws- when he has all day to throw it. Wilson runs a much more sophisticated offense than Kaepernick does and has a larger number of long drives (at least based on my viewing sample- I've seen three of Kaepernick's games now as a 49er). Wilson is also a more clutch QB in the end of games.

    I think the big strength for Kaepernick is that he is a great athlete (though Wilson ran a better forty) with a great arm (Wilson's arm is also very good, but Kaepernick probably has one of the strongest arms in the NFL). He's a very nice fit for Harbaugh's system.

    Remember that Harbaugh and Carroll are extremely similar coaches with extremely similar philosophies and the GM that built most of the 49ers current team had connections to Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, just like Seattle's GM John Schneider does. According to an inside source we have, we heard that Kaepernick was higher on Seattle's board in 2011 than Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder. So this isn't about ripping Kaepernick. My heart sank when I saw the 49ers move up and nab him.

    That said, statistics only tell you part of the story. In terms of results, the two are very close, but in terms of process, Wilson is way ahead. Kaepernick is still improving and I made the Josh Freeman comparison for a reason, because when Freeman has his act together he's a scary QB. Kaepernick isn't erratic like Freeman is, although I do think he needs to continue his growth or NFL defenses will expose him next season. He's a night and day performer when under pressure / not under pressure. Give him fits and he'll make mistakes- and that's not something you can say about Wilson. If anything he almost gets better when protection breaks down.
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  • -The Glove- wrote:Let's see...I'd take Wilson because of his leadership ability, work ethic, poise under pressure, intelligence and decision making skills. I'll leave all the stats and numbers to the rest of you. What I've seen from RW, his ability to forget a bad play and progress from one game to the next is unbelievable. It seems like when PC has him focus on one part of his game, it is fixed within a game or two (not bailing out so much, throwing in the pocket, read-option). I see him as the type of player where you can throw anything at him and he'll adapt, respond, and challenge himself to rise above it.

    I'm pretty sure you guys (Niners fans) are perfectly happy with Kap, as you should be. He's a damn good QB and like RW, he's going to continue to get better. But I'm happy with RW and wouldn't change it for ANYTHING.

    and one more thing...I don't understand why anybody would want to go to a rival's forum and argue about your respective QB's. That's like trying to discuss politics or religion to me. That ish is just going to go in circles.


    Its kinda funny....almost that entire first paragraph...I could use that to explain why I like Kaep...just Put Kaeps name in there and us JH instead of PC.

    I respect that opinion tho.

    As for why I would argue it...well, the question was asked and the OP asked for input. I have no hope of convicing anyone here that Kaep is better....my only jpe is provide perspective.

    That, and I'm really bored at work. LOL! :D
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  • Kearly shutdown this thread with a shotgun. Nice work, broseph.
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  • kearly wrote:I say this as someone who liked both QBs coming out of college.

    Wilson's feel for the game is miles ahead of Kaepernick's. He progresses through reads with more frequency and without any discomfort. Kaepernick is pretty much a pure 1 read QB- he has shown the ability to switch reads on deep throws- when he has all day to throw it. Wilson runs a much more sophisticated offense than Kaepernick does and has a larger number of long drives (at least based on my viewing sample- I've seen three of Kaepernick's games now as a 49er). Wilson is also a more clutch QB in the end of games.

    I think the big strength for Kaepernick is that he is a great athlete (though Wilson ran a better forty) with a great arm (Wilson's arm is also very good, but Kaepernick probably has one of the strongest arms in the NFL). He's a very nice fit for Harbaugh's system.

    Remember that Harbaugh and Carroll are extremely similar coaches with extremely similar philosophies and the GM that built most of the 49ers current team had connections to Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, just like Seattle's GM John Schneider does. According to an inside source we have, we heard that Kaepernick was higher on Seattle's board in 2011 than Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder. So this isn't about ripping Kaepernick. My heart sank when I saw the 49ers move up and nab him.

    That said, statistics only tell you part of the story. In terms of results, the two are very close, but in terms of process, Wilson is way ahead. Kaepernick is still improving and I made the Josh Freeman comparison for a reason, because when Freeman has his act together he's a scary QB. Kaepernick isn't erratic like Freeman is, although I do think he needs to continue his growth or NFL defenses will expose him next season. He's a night and day performer when under pressure / not under pressure. Give him fits and he'll make mistakes- and that's not something you can say about Wilson. If anything he almost gets better when protection breaks down.


    OK...gonna have to stop you there right at your first comment. Kaepernick WAS a 1 read QB. He is NOT that any longer. In his first game as a starter vs Chicago, he hit Crabtree for a TD as his THIRD option on the play. Against the Pats the long TD to Walker was ALSO his THIRD option. He is moving through his progressions very quickly and that is one of the reasons 49er fans are so excited. The National perspective seems to think this is all about his legs. Its not. Thats just a bonus. The reason Kaep is playing so will is what he's doing between his ears and his accuracy on the deep ball. Don't dismiss him as a 1 read QB...you will be missing the boat.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:Kearly shutdown this thread with a shotgun. Nice work, broseph.


    Uh...he might have if he weren't WAY, WAY offbase with his very first comment.
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  • How about somebody finds us the numbers on how many completed passes have gone to 2nd/3rd/4th reads over the past 5 games for both of them, and how many seconds they took after the snap? (Within the pocket only.) That'd be the real telling set of stats in regards to this.
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  • How about we all just admit that no one is here to have their mind's changed, and will vote for the QB of their team no matter what?
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  • AbsolutNET wrote:How about we all just admit that no one is here to have their mind's changed, and will vote for the QB of their team no matter what?


    That's way too obvious. Besides, the OP is a closet 49ers fan that loves Kaepernick. :D
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  • AbsolutNET wrote:How about we all just admit that no one is here to have their mind's changed, and will vote for the QB of their team no matter what?


    How about no. killjoy.
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  • AbsolutNET wrote:How about we all just admit that no one is here to have their mind's changed, and will vote for the QB of their team no matter what?


    LOL....probably true.....

    :D
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:How about somebody finds us the numbers on how many completed passes have gone to 2nd/3rd/4th reads over the past 5 games for both of them, and how many seconds they took after the snap? (Within the pocket only.) That'd be the real telling set of stats in regards to this.


    If that's available, I'd love to see it. No idea where we'd even find it tho.

    To be honest tho, not sure it would really even tell us anything. If the #1 option is open, there is no need to move on to the second option. All those stats might tell you is that 1 QB is better and moving through progressions OR it could tell you that the QBs #1 option doesn't get open that much.
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  • I meant to include 1st in that list, Marvin. However, if one QB averages moving to his 3rd read say, 0.7 seconds faster than the other over the course of 5 games...That does tell something, in my opinion. I'm guessing that stat is available somewhere for a fee for signing up for stats, but I don't exactly feel like paying money to 5 different sites just to see if they have it, lol.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:I meant to include 1st in that list, Marvin. However, if one QB averages moving to his 3rd read say, 0.7 seconds faster than the other over the course of 5 games...That does tell something, in my opinion. I'm guessing that stat is available somewhere for a fee for signing up for stats, but I don't exactly feel like paying money to 5 different sites just to see if they have it, lol.


    LOL...me either.

    That still wouldn't tell you everything.

    If the first read is a slant 50% of the time with one guy and it's a deep comeback for another...it would obviously take longer for the guy to move off his first read.

    I do get your point tho. :D I don't particularly want to pay for it either.
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  • Nothing tells you everything, "everything" is a money-crapping unicorn when it comes to stats. The best you can hope to do is get most of the way there, which Football Outsiders does brilliantly.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:Nothing tells you everything, "everything" is a money-crapping unicorn when it comes to stats. The best you can hope to do is get most of the way there, which Football Outsiders does brilliantly.


    LOL. Nice visual.
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  • Marvin49 wrote:
    Scottemojo wrote:Niner fans have a distinct handicap in using numbers to say whether Kaepernick is better than Wilson; all the numbers say that Alex Smith should be the starter in San Fran.


    Uh...no they don't.

    Kaeps average yard per COMPLETION is FAR, FAR higher than Alex and his overall numbers are comparable...which is really saying something considering Kaep has only started 5 games. Alex has also NEVER thrown 4 TDs in a game. Thier rushing statistics aren't even close.

    Bullshit. Alex has a higher completion percentage, a higher rating, a higher percentage of his passes are for touchdowns, and the one stat you quote, YPA, Alex trails him by .4, 8.4 to 8. anything over 8 is very good.

    Oh, and with a lot more attempts, Alex has 4 fumbles, Kaep has 9. Like it or not, his greenness is going to show.

    Is Kaep the future of the Niners? Hell yes. Is jumping to him as the starter this late in the year going to bite Harbie in the ass? I'm counting on it.
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  • Try READING.

    I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.

    Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

    Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

    Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

    As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.

    Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs.

    First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002). Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already?

    Thats what this move is about.

    Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has febneded him Alex since the day he was drafted.
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  • Marvin49 wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:Kearly shutdown this thread with a shotgun. Nice work, broseph.


    Uh...he might have if he weren't WAY, WAY offbase with his very first comment.


    woah there. Kearly is one of the smartest guys on this whole board, (along with Scottemojo, who you are arguing with). He is one of the few on here who actually breaks down tape. You might want to take some notes while watching some all-22 on Kaep if you are gonna successfully cross swords with him.

    And BTW, you want to see a QB go through his reads extremely fast? Wilson is a natural at this, even in his very first start against the Cardinals, where he was insanely green as compared to now.

    (Highlight starts at 1:10)

    You'll see him pumpfake first to the receiver on the right, not open so he goes to his 2nd read. His 2nd read is his receiver running an out, hoping Sidney would draw both defenders coverage. He wouldn't make it, so he goes to his 3rd read. He pumpfakes to Rice once, and then lets it loose a little high so it doesn't get tipped by the defender in front of him, TD hawks.

    And also, you might notice a lot of his TD passes are on 3rd and goal. He is very clutch, massive improvement from T-jack, even though that guy was a warrior, he is no Russell Wilson.
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  • I was shocked to see Wilson winning this poll, 10-1. Shocked (I jest).
    I'm elated with Wilson's play thus far and can only think of a few QBs I'd trade for. Kaep is not (currently) on the list. But I am seeing a lot of upside in Kaep. That has me bothered in big fashion.

    I am surrounded by Niner fans here and the one argument I had this past off-season, as to why I felt we were about to take over the division for the forseeable future, is the fact we addressed the QB issue (with Flynn, actually) while SF did not. Despite Smiths good year last year, I didn't feel he'd get the Niners over the hump. Then, we got Wilson, but Smith continued to play well.

    FF to now, and while we, IMO, are still better at the position, I fear that the promise Kaep (and Smith) has shown keeps the Niners from having to draft a QB. Obviously I was hopeful Smith would revert and the Niners would waste pick after pick trying to find a QB. All said, I no longer believe the Niners are on the verge of ruin. Instead, like us, they likely have 2 QBs they can count on. It will make for a great rivalry but we will be needing our A game everytime we face them. I hate the 49ers, I really do.
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  • Marvin49 wrote:Try READING.

    I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.Gotcha.

    Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

    Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

    Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

    As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.Didn't they get within a Kyle Smith fumble of the SB last year? harbaugh is a good coach, but he didn't predict the future.

    Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs. Bullshit. Alex got hurt while on a pretty good tear, and Harbie knows it was his cahnce to install his playmaker. And kaep is a playmaking gambler so far. Don't take offense, he is you future.

    First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.Dead last D in the NFL, right? Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002)Still not a great pass D, and I notice you left out his road trip to St Louis, where a highly ranked pass D kicked his ass. Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already? A playoff loss. That Smith would have probably won.

    Thats what this move is about.

    Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has febneded him Alex since the day he was drafted.
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  • I don't think you can compare the 2 at this point like this anyway. Kaepernick is 3 games in and he's not faced the same quality of defenses Wilson has. NE is a powerhouse offense, but their D leaves something to be desired.
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  • Marvin49 wrote:Try READING.

    I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.

    Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

    Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

    Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

    As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.

    Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs.

    First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002). Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already?

    Thats what this move is about.

    Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has febneded him Alex since the day he was drafted.


    Average yard per completion is a stupid stat to judge someone on.
    Kaepernick's yards per completion is 12.8
    Tim Tebow's career average per completion is 14 yards

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  • kearly wrote:I say this as someone who liked both QBs coming out of college.

    Wilson's feel for the game is miles ahead of Kaepernick's. He progresses through reads with more frequency and without any discomfort. Kaepernick is pretty much a pure 1 read QB- he has shown the ability to switch reads on deep throws- when he has all day to throw it. Wilson runs a much more sophisticated offense than Kaepernick does and has a larger number of long drives (at least based on my viewing sample- I've seen three of Kaepernick's games now as a 49er). Wilson is also a more clutch QB in the end of games.

    I think the big strength for Kaepernick is that he is a great athlete (though Wilson ran a better forty) with a great arm (Wilson's arm is also very good, but Kaepernick probably has one of the strongest arms in the NFL). He's a very nice fit for Harbaugh's system.

    Remember that Harbaugh and Carroll are extremely similar coaches with extremely similar philosophies and the GM that built most of the 49ers current team had connections to Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, just like Seattle's GM John Schneider does. According to an inside source we have, we heard that Kaepernick was higher on Seattle's board in 2011 than Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder. So this isn't about ripping Kaepernick. My heart sank when I saw the 49ers move up and nab him.

    That said, statistics only tell you part of the story. In terms of results, the two are very close, but in terms of process, Wilson is way ahead. Kaepernick is still improving and I made the Josh Freeman comparison for a reason, because when Freeman has his act together he's a scary QB. Kaepernick isn't erratic like Freeman is, although I do think he needs to continue his growth or NFL defenses will expose him next season. He's a night and day performer when under pressure / not under pressure. Give him fits and he'll make mistakes- and that's not something you can say about Wilson. If anything he almost gets better when protection breaks down.


    When do you think Kap will get exposed, if at all? Against the Hawks?
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  • Scottemojo wrote:
    Marvin49 wrote:Try READING.

    I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.Gotcha.

    Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

    Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

    Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

    As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.Didn't they get within a Kyle Smith fumble of the SB last year? harbaugh is a good coach, but he didn't predict the future. Yes, but they can't count on not needing a dynamic passer every year. It was pretty clear that the 49ers had one weakness, and he wants to remove it.

    Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs. Bullshit. Alex got hurt while on a pretty good tear, and Harbie knows it was his cahnce to install his playmaker. And kaep is a playmaking gambler so far. Don't take offense, he is you future. Not really clear here what's bullshit. I think we said the same thing.

    First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.Dead last D in the NFL, right?Still a very loud stadiumand hard place to play. Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002)Still not a great pass D, and I notice you left out his road trip to St Louis, where a highly ranked pass D kicked his assStill the hardest place in the NFL to play, and I left out St. Louis because there wasn't anything specific in that game that I thought was pertinent to the situation. Ya, he struggled there, but he still had a QB rating of 83 and threw the game-winning pass that Delanie Walker promptly dropped.. Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already? A playoff loss. That Smith would have probably won.Ya...not buying that. SF may very well lose a playoff game, but I highly doubt that Kaep will be the reason why. He's simply better. It may not all show in the numbers, but Kaep is better.

    Thats what this move is about.

    Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has defended Alex since the day he was drafted.
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  • themunn wrote:
    Marvin49 wrote:Try READING.

    I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.

    Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

    Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

    Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

    As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.

    Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs.

    First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002). Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already?

    Thats what this move is about.

    Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has febneded him Alex since the day he was drafted.


    Average yard per completion is a stupid stat to judge someone on.
    Kaepernick's yards per completion is 12.8
    Tim Tebow's career average per completion is 14 yards

    All you need to know


    Not basing EVERYTHING on that stat...just the difference between Kaep and Alex. Kaep is a FAR, FAR better downfield passer than Alex. The Niners were missing those dynamic "chuck" plays in their offense last year and early this year. It was the one thing missing. THAT's the point. Kaep gives them that.

    Example...the 49ers scored 5 TDs in NE. 4 of them were from outside the redzone and 2 of them were 30+ yards. There was a stat that came out ofter Kaeps 2nd start. In Alexs 9 starts, he has 20 plays go for more than 20 yards. In 2 starts, Kaep had 10.
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  • You measure a Quarterback by super bowl wins.

    Wilson will win it, Kaep won't.

    /trollon
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  • hawksfan515 wrote:
    kearly wrote:I say this as someone who liked both QBs coming out of college.

    Wilson's feel for the game is miles ahead of Kaepernick's. He progresses through reads with more frequency and without any discomfort. Kaepernick is pretty much a pure 1 read QB- he has shown the ability to switch reads on deep throws- when he has all day to throw it. Wilson runs a much more sophisticated offense than Kaepernick does and has a larger number of long drives (at least based on my viewing sample- I've seen three of Kaepernick's games now as a 49er). Wilson is also a more clutch QB in the end of games.

    I think the big strength for Kaepernick is that he is a great athlete (though Wilson ran a better forty) with a great arm (Wilson's arm is also very good, but Kaepernick probably has one of the strongest arms in the NFL). He's a very nice fit for Harbaugh's system.

    Remember that Harbaugh and Carroll are extremely similar coaches with extremely similar philosophies and the GM that built most of the 49ers current team had connections to Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, just like Seattle's GM John Schneider does. According to an inside source we have, we heard that Kaepernick was higher on Seattle's board in 2011 than Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder. So this isn't about ripping Kaepernick. My heart sank when I saw the 49ers move up and nab him.

    That said, statistics only tell you part of the story. In terms of results, the two are very close, but in terms of process, Wilson is way ahead. Kaepernick is still improving and I made the Josh Freeman comparison for a reason, because when Freeman has his act together he's a scary QB. Kaepernick isn't erratic like Freeman is, although I do think he needs to continue his growth or NFL defenses will expose him next season. He's a night and day performer when under pressure / not under pressure. Give him fits and he'll make mistakes- and that's not something you can say about Wilson. If anything he almost gets better when protection breaks down.


    When do you think Kap will get exposed, if at all? Against the Hawks?


    Exposed as what?

    DO you mean what game will he have thats "bad"?

    Well, obviously my hope is not till next year or never.
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  • NFSeahawks628 wrote:You measure a Quarterback by super bowl wins.

    Wilson will win it, Kaep won't.

    /trollon


    LOL. OK. I'm sold.

    SMDH.
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  • I'll put money on Wilson out performing Kaep this Sunday.
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  • NFSeahawks628 wrote:I'll put money on Wilson out performing Kaep this Sunday.


    Could be. We'll see. I don't like to bet.
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  • This is Wilson's song...

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  • jkitsune wrote:There's no way to tell which one's better. Neither has played very many games. Wilson has had a great season. Kaep's had a great few games. Wilson was not 'total crap' the first few games, and Kaepernick hasn't been a 'point guard.' Who knows who will be better? Anyone trying to tell you they know for sure one's superior to the other is blowing smoke.

    Given that, I'll take my boy Wilson.

    No smoke, just enough sense to recall what Chuck Gruden had to say about Wilsons uncanny ability to adapt to different QB systems with ease, + what he has going on inside his thinker.
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  • NFSeahawks628 wrote:This is Wilson's song.


    Damn, I've never heard that before. I like it quite a bit.
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  • Marvin49 wrote:OK...gonna have to stop you there right at your first comment. Kaepernick WAS a 1 read QB. He is NOT that any longer. In his first game as a starter vs Chicago, he hit Crabtree for a TD as his THIRD option on the play. Against the Pats the long TD to Walker was ALSO his THIRD option. He is moving through his progressions very quickly and that is one of the reasons 49er fans are so excited. The National perspective seems to think this is all about his legs. Its not. Thats just a bonus. The reason Kaep is playing so will is what he's doing between his ears and his accuracy on the deep ball. Don't dismiss him as a 1 read QB...you will be missing the boat.


    If you read carefully you would have seen that I cited Kaepernick's ability to make a second read. It's just that he rarely does, and he needs ideal circumstances to do it. I didn't chart, but I would guess that 90% of his throws have been on the first read. Every QB makes most of his throws on the first read (pre-snap reads are very important), but Kaepernick relies on his arm over his brain and that leads to a very low percentage of plays where he surveys the field.

    There have been pro-bowl QBs in the past with similar tendencies. However if Kaepernick wants to reach his high potential he'll need to grow and check through reads much more often. QBs that are 1 read heavy tend to wilt against elite defenses too. If Seattle's secondary was 100%, I'd say this is the ultimate test for Kaepernick. Hell, if Sherman plays and Gore isn't getting 10 yards per carry, maybe it still could be a bellweather game.

    I have nothing against Kaepernick. I scouted him before the 2011 draft and was a big fan. Our GM was also a big fan of Kaepernick's. I think he's going to be a valuable QB, the question is how valuable.
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  • sc85sis wrote:
    49fansince70 wrote:Had to go with CK here. He's taller, smarter (37 vs. 28 on the wonderlic). Both are fast, both have great arms. RW has a better touch on his passes IMO. One thing I noticed with CK (and RW, for that matter) right off the bat is, unlike Alex Smith, he can throw his receivers open.

    I suspect CK's 'fumbling the snap' problem was more due to weather in NE and was corrected in the second half, so I'd be skeptical of statistical analysis that points to the number of fumbles.

    Right now RW runs the offense better than CK does, and that could make all the difference in the upcoming game.

    CK has a slight edge in quality of receiving targets, both teams have decent WR's, but the 49ers have Vernon Davis (see how I didn't go with initials there?).

    Hopefully this argument will go back and forth for years to come.

    I don't put much stock in the Wonderlic unless a guy has a really terrible score. Marino scored in the teens and that didn't exactly hurt him.

    Russell has shown he's more than capable of football smarts. He learned Wisconsin's offense in a matter of weeks because he's a ridiculously hard worker.


    Yeah, there was a study done showing the wonderlic really doesn't predict success for quarterbacks. Clearly athletic intelligence is a different phenomenon than book smarts. For what it's worth, the season CK was drafted, the 49ers more or less shunned him because they had a new coaching staff and a short offseason; this season he only got 2nd team practice reps (and some wildcat-type plays, mostly to mess with the minds of opposing DC's) until he was thrust into the starting lineup due to Smith's concussion. According to the 49ers coaching staff he executed the same gameplan they would have run with Smith (other than a few plays tailored to his strengths).
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  • You 9er fans stuck your ass out for Kaepernick making reads all the time, and it seems like Dilfer does not agree with you...... And by hearing Dilfer talk, he clearly has more football knowledge than anyone on this board.
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