Wilson vs. Kaep straight up.... who do you take?

Niner fans have a distinct handicap in using numbers to say whether Kaepernick is better than Wilson; all the numbers say that Alex Smith should be the starter in San Fran.

RolandDeschain":l4f5apic said:

Kaepernick is taking twice as many sacks and is fumbling the football FIVE TIMES MORE than Wilson. Those are the two really telling ones. Even if you completely remove his 4 fumbles @ Foxboro, he's fumbling quite a bit more per game than Wilson, and I'm including every game for Wilson in that average.

If Kaepernick keeps fumbling and taking sacks (the latter one points to better athleticism/pocket presence by Wilson, IMO) the way he has been, he's never going to be a great QB.

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Where exactly are you getting your stats from anyway? Wilson has been sacked 11 times in his last 5 games and Kaepernick has been sacked 10 times. This is the second thread I've seen on this board in the last day where Wilson has make believe numbers out of thin air to make him look better than he is and to make Kaepernick look worse.

This is silly that I actually have to fact check the stats you guys throw out because some of you are so dishonest with numbers and facts.

Disp":1v7vo54l said:

Where exactly are you getting your stats from anyway? Wilson has been sacked 11 times in his last 5 games and Kaepernick has been sacked 10 times. This is the second thread I've seen on this board in the last day where Wilson has make believe numbers out of thin air to make him look better than he is and to make Kaepernick look worse.

This is silly that I actually have to fact check the stats you guys throw out because some of you are so dishonest with numbers and facts.

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NFL.com. Where are you getting yours from?

http://www.nfl.com/player/russellwilson/2532975/profile
http://www.nfl.com/player/colinkaeperni ... 86/profile

Wilson has 26 in 14 games, which is 1.85 sacks per game. Kaepernick has 14 in 5 games, which is 2.80 sacks per game. That's a pretty big sack-per-game differential, don't you think? 33% more sacks for Kaepernick, to be precise.

Looks like you're the one with the make-believe numbers on this board; or you're using some selective metric somewhere, perhaps.

Here's a hint: Add up the sacks from Kaepernick's last 5 games.

I'll help:
Kaepernick
NE = 2
Mia= 4
STL=3
NO=0
CHI=1
Total=10


Wilson:
Buffalo=2
Ari=1
Chi=2
Mia=2
NY=4
Total=11

Actually, scratch that, 2 of his sacks were in a game where he wasn't the starter; so the math is 14 in 6 games, technically, though he didn't play a full game. We'll give him the benefit of lowering his sack rate and assuming 6 full games, though. 2.33 sacks per game, differential of 21%.

Disp":gdv4ij90 said:

Here's a hint: Add up the sacks from Kaepernick's last 5 games.

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Here's a hint: When you're playing an NFL game, sacks still count even if you weren't the named starter for that game.

Another hint: Don't try to use perceived technicalities to avoid the other issue in this discussion regarding Kaepernick, which is fumbles.

Ok let's compare their last 6 games:

Wilson = 12
Kaepernick = 13

You're right. Looking at the stats, Kaepernick is indeed taking double the sacks Wilson is.

RolandDeschain":2sykt6qs said:

Another hint: Don't try to use perceived technicalities to avoid the other issue in this discussion regarding Kaepernick, which is fumbles.

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Perceived technicalities? Your entire argument was founded on you doing first grade addition wrong to suit your point.

Wilson's taking more sacks as of late, which I want to see stop. No doubt about that. You're using it to pump up Kaepernick's stats, though. Whatever, ignore the sack thing if you want, you can cherry-pick sets of games all you want but for QBs that actually earned their starting spots, you use their year-to-date stats for an overall accurate representation. The good and the bad.

RolandDeschain":2htqtcac said:

Wilson's taking more sacks as of late, which I want to see stop. No doubt about that. You're using it to pump up Kaepernick's stats, though. Whatever, ignore the sack thing if you want, you can cherry-pick sets of games all you want but for QBs that actually earned their starting spots, you use their year-to-date stats for an overall accurate representation. The good and the bad.

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I'm using your criteria that you guys cherry picked; Wilson's last 6 games. If you want to use Wilson's season-long sack rate then why won't you use his season long completion % or yards per attempt? Or are those irrelevant to you because they don't look as good?

RolandDeschain":3sjqiwkm said:

It surprises me that so many 49ers fans claim Kaepernick's sack & fumble numbers don't matter...

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Well, unfortunately, your stats are incorrect. You are claiming 1.8 fumbles per game based upon dividing his entire season's fumbles by his 5 games started. Kaepernick had 9 fumbles throughout the entire season, but 3 of those were in games he was not the starter.

If we are throwing out the NE game with 4 bad QB-Center exchanges, as you said, Kaep would have 2 fumbles in 4 starts, or 5 in 13 games.

Kaeprenick has fewer INT's per game during those first 5 starts than Wilson (over Wilson's first five or the entire season, either way).

So, essentially, Kaepernick has fumbled more per game (but fewer of those fumbles have been lost) and Wilson has thrown more picks.

Let's just add up the quarters each one played, then; since Wilson was pulled halfway through one game, and 3/4ths of the way through another, and Kaepernick had two partial games as well.

RolandDeschain":1tz347vo said:

Let's just add up the quarters each one played, then; since Wilson was pulled halfway through one game, and 3/4ths of the way through another, and Kaepernick had two partial games as well.

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It's still a bit misleading, as Kaepernick was used for wildcat/option plays earlier in the season. So, you can look at the NYG game, and say "Wow, Kaepernick was sacked twice", but the reality is that he was only called in for a couple of running plays that weren't successful.

These are all averages, not totals.

Russell Averages (full season):

16 pass completions
25 pass attempts
62.4% completion rate
193 yards
7.86 per pass
1.5 passing TDs
0.64 interceptions
1.9 sacks
11.5 sack yards
96.6 rating
5.6 rush attempts
29 rush yards
5.23 yards average
0 rush TDs
0.36 fumbles
0.2 lost fumbles


Russell Averages (last 5 games):

15 pass completions
24 pass attempts
63.6% completion rate
212 yards
9.28 per pass
1.6 passing TDs
0.2 interceptions
2.2 sacks
0 sack yards
110.8 rating
6.6 rush attempts
49 rush yards
6.92 yards average
1 rush TDs
0.4 fumbles
0.2 lost fumbles

Kaep Averages (5 games started):

17 pass completions
26 pass attempts
66.7% completion rate
217 yards
8.58 per pass
1.4 passing TDs
0.4 interceptions
1.8 sacks
11.2 sack yards
103.1 rating
6.4 rush attempts
40 rush yards
5.82 yards average
0 rush TDs
2 fumbles
0.3 lost fumbles

manders2600":xe9101fc said:

It's still a bit misleading, as Kaepernick was used for wildcat/option plays earlier in the season. So, you can look at the NYG game, and say "Wow, Kaepernick was sacked twice", but the reality is that he was only called in for a couple of running plays that weren't successful.

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If he had 2 sacks on 2 plays and wasn't the only QB on the field, I'd be willing to discount them. Despite what Disp thinks about me, I'm being reasonable about it. Call sack average on the year a wash, then. We'll focus on the fumbles, which are more important, anyways.

this is soo easy, Wilson plays for the Hawks, Kapp plays for?????

no brainer

sc85sis":2hokzcvk said:

These are all averages, not totals.

Russell Averages (full season):

16 pass completions
25 pass attempts
62.4% completion rate
193 yards
7.86 per pass
1.5 passing TDs
0.64 interceptions
1.9 sacks
11.5 sack yards
96.6 rating
5.6 rush attempts
29 rush yards
5.23 yards average
0 rush TDs
0.36 fumbles
0.2 lost fumbles


Russell Averages (last 5 games):

15 pass completions
24 pass attempts
63.6% completion rate
212 yards
9.28 per pass
1.6 passing TDs
0.2 interceptions
2.2 sacks
0 sack yards
110.8 rating
6.6 rush attempts
49 rush yards
6.92 yards average
1 rush TDs
0.4 fumbles
0.2 lost fumbles

Kaep Averages (5 games started):

17 pass completions
26 pass attempts
66.7% completion rate
217 yards
8.58 per pass
1.4 passing TDs
0.4 interceptions
1.8 sacks
11.2 sack yards
103.1 rating
6.4 rush attempts
40 rush yards
5.82 yards average
0 rush TDs
2 fumbles
0.3 lost fumbles

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aw nevermind

RolandDeschain":2nhct1to said:

manders2600":2nhct1to said:

It's still a bit misleading, as Kaepernick was used for wildcat/option plays earlier in the season. So, you can look at the NYG game, and say "Wow, Kaepernick was sacked twice", but the reality is that he was only called in for a couple of running plays that weren't successful.

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If he had 2 sacks on 2 plays and wasn't the only QB on the field, I'd be willing to discount them. Despite what Disp thinks about me, I'm being reasonable about it. Call sack average on the year a wash, then. We'll focus on the fumbles, which are more important, anyways.

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And, in that case, whether you look at season totals or just the first five starts of each QB, Kaepernick has fumbled more per game (but lost fewer of those fumbles) and Wilson throws more picks.

Now, the sample size on this is incredibly small, so I'm not really sure you can tell anything definitively, but Wilson turns the ball over (fumbles lost and picks thrown) more than Kaepernick.

Scottemojo":313i6c3p said:

Niner fans have a distinct handicap in using numbers to say whether Kaepernick is better than Wilson; all the numbers say that Alex Smith should be the starter in San Fran.

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Uh...no they don't.

Kaeps average yard per COMPLETION is FAR, FAR higher than Alex and his overall numbers are comparable...which is really saying something considering Kaep has only started 5 games. Alex has also NEVER thrown 4 TDs in a game. Thier rushing statistics aren't even close.

RolandDeschain":ef4tevtg said:

If he had 2 sacks on 2 plays and wasn't the only QB on the field, I'd be willing to discount them. Despite what Disp thinks about me, I'm being reasonable about it. Call sack average on the year a wash, then. We'll focus on the fumbles, which are more important, anyways.

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I agree about the fumbles; they're a problem that needs to be fixed, and Wilson definitely fumbles less. Kaepernick is doing what every single QB in history, including Wilson does in their first few games, and that's either fumbling or throwing picks. You're straight up bending statistics to fit your agenda and being dishonest about it though. My point from the beginning is they're both great qb's with bright futures, and Wilson is not on a whole different tier that Kaepernick might never get to like you've been saying.

OK...I think we're getting everything twisted here about what should "count" and what should not.

To me, it's only fair to count starts. Kaep was primarily in a run package for most of the season so it wasn't a conventional offense. There were even times that both Smith and Kaep were on the field. There were times he was sacked that were simply trick plays that didn't work and he had to eat the ball.

He came in and played for the very first time on a real non-mop-up situation in the first Rams game. He did tho come into that game having not prepped as the starter and the team was already 10 points behind halfway through the second quarter.

Given all that, I think it's only really fair to look at Kaeps last 5 games. All starts. We can debate all day which 5 of Wilsons starts to compare to so that's why I used both his first 5 and last 5 in my initial comparison. I think that's fair.

As far as the sacks and INT numbers go, Kaep does take some sacks, but he actually has excaped quite a few...sacks that Alex could not escape. One of the reasons tho that he does take some sacks is that he is looking to hit the home run on every play. He takes ALOT more deep drops than Alex did and counts on his protection to hold up...and it doesn't always do so. As far as the fumbles, He has only fumbled in the last 5 games ONCE as a result of getting hit. One was the horrible pitch play that never should have been called and the rest are fumbled snaps. He needs to clean that up, no question, but that is a result of never taking a snap from center in 4 years of college football and a cold, wet ball in Foxborough. He will improve.

COmparing Wilsons first 5 games to his last 5 show HUGE improvement. He looks like he is on his way to being a very good QB. I simply don't understand why SOME of you don't see that Kaep will imrove as well.