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skater18000
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Post subject: If I told you that going into week 15...  Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:17 pm |
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| NET Rookie |
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Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:14 pm
Posts: 296
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We would have a...
5% chance of being the 1st seed
20% chance at the 2nd seed
About a 60% chance of winning the division. (Meaning we we would take any seed from 2 to 4 and get a first round home game)
And about an 85% chance of making the playoffs as a whole.
And the best thing about it, is we're most likely finishing at 10 - 6 and possibly 11 - 5 which is f***ing incredible
With a rookie QB, Its crazy. I love Tjack and everything but their is a huge difference between him and Russ... (obviously but more in the teams overall play) Just shows THE QUARTERBACK IS EVERYTHING IN THE NFL
_________________
Week 1 of the preseason vs. The Tennessee Titans, I said the Seahawks were winning the superbowl...
"Oh and by the way, Go Hawks!!!" Russel Wilson
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onanygivensunday
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:29 pm |
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| NET Veteran |
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Joined: Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:59 am
Posts: 2083
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It's been a great year... and I'm enjoying the hell out of it.
And yes, the QB is EVERYTHING... and we finally have out QBOTF... FINALLY.
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"Wilson will come in there pissing lightning and crapping thunder! Watch out!" ... Tech Worlds, 5/9/2012
Endzorn, 3 min. later... "Football aside, I would pay money to see that. I'm serious."
Moved to Seattle in 1980. Hawks fan for 33 years and counting.
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therealjohncarlson
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:31 pm |
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Joined: Sun May 10, 2009 2:09 pm
Posts: 2715
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60% chance of winning the division? Make that 35% and you have a more accurate reading
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skater18000
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:46 pm |
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| NET Rookie |
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Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:14 pm
Posts: 296
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onanygivensunday wrote: It's been a great year... and I'm enjoying the hell out of it.
And yes, the QB is EVERYTHING... and we finally have out QBOTF... FINALLY. Uh amen... Go Hawks  
_________________
Week 1 of the preseason vs. The Tennessee Titans, I said the Seahawks were winning the superbowl...
"Oh and by the way, Go Hawks!!!" Russel Wilson
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skater18000
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:11 pm |
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| NET Rookie |
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Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:14 pm
Posts: 296
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therealjohncarlson wrote: 60% chance of winning the division? Make that 35% and you have a more accurate reading So we're going to lose @ bills or home vs 49ers and rams... please the bills are bad and we suck if we can't beat them anyway and we ain't losing at home... The 49ers are lined up 2 get killed by the patriots next week, their is no way in hell the 49ers are within 10 points of the patriots. The way I see it we will play the 49ers @ the CLINK for the nfc west championship... Still have 2 finish business @ home vs rams. I'm so yes the real john carlson, I'm banking on statistics saying the patriots are going to win (95%) And the Seahawks have a 70% chance against the 49ers And of course their is a chance we lose to the bills about 20% and the rams are about 20% how do you come up with 35%? Seahawks @bills, Seahawks vs 49ers and rams... and the rams have @ patriots Seahawks and home vs cards (can't count on Them for s**t)
_________________
Week 1 of the preseason vs. The Tennessee Titans, I said the Seahawks were winning the superbowl...
"Oh and by the way, Go Hawks!!!" Russel Wilson
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MeenReen
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:13 pm |
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| NET Veteran |
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Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:46 am
Posts: 508
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Yeah, man, 60% is chance is a homer prediction. Best case scenario, we are probably at like a 2/3 chance to beat Buffalo this week(on the road against a potentially explosive offense), and 50/50 to beat SF. SF has probably like 1/4 chance to beat NE on the road, and a 50/50 chance against us. Best case scenario, we are at like .333 to be in position for week 17 to matter.
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skater18000
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:18 pm |
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| NET Rookie |
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Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:14 pm
Posts: 296
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MeenReen wrote: Yeah, man, 60% is chance is a homer prediction. Best case scenario, we are probably at like a 2/3 chance to beat Buffalo this week(on the road against a potentially explosive offense), and 50/50 to beat SF. SF has probably like 1/4 chance to beat NE on the road, and a 50/50 chance against us. Best case scenario, we are at like .333 to be in position for week 17 to matter. Week 16?
_________________
Week 1 of the preseason vs. The Tennessee Titans, I said the Seahawks were winning the superbowl...
"Oh and by the way, Go Hawks!!!" Russel Wilson
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MeenReen
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:23 pm |
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| NET Veteran |
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Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:46 am
Posts: 508
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I responded too soon.. If you are going by your predictions (95% for the Pats to win, are you serious? - You couldn't even say that for the best team in the league vs. the worst team in the league), then you are right in predicting over 60% for us to win, but c'mon man. Look up how probability is calculated. Things are compounded because both probabilities have to come true for the end goal to happen.
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MeenReen
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:27 pm |
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| NET Veteran |
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Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:46 am
Posts: 508
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skater18000 wrote: MeenReen wrote: Yeah, man, 60% is chance is a homer prediction. Best case scenario, we are probably at like a 2/3 chance to beat Buffalo this week(on the road against a potentially explosive offense), and 50/50 to beat SF. SF has probably like 1/4 chance to beat NE on the road, and a 50/50 chance against us. Best case scenario, we are at like .333 to be in position for week 17 to matter. Week 16? No, I meant week 17. Week 16 will obviously matter if we win against the Bills and SF loses to NE, which is entirely possible. That would put us .5 games in the lead, correct (if we beat SF)?
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skater18000
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:36 pm |
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| NET Rookie |
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Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:14 pm
Posts: 296
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MeenReen wrote: I responded too soon.. If you are going by your predictions (95% for the Pats to win, are you serious? - You couldn't even say that for the best team in the league vs. the worst team in the league), then you are right in predicting over 60% for us to win, but c'mon man. Look up how probability is calculated. Things are compounded because both probabilities have to come true for the end goal to happen. Call me crazy I said the patriots were going to blow out the Texans with that same 95% probability and sure enough... but the Seahawks vs 49ers is clearly upwards of at least 55% Seahawks so...
_________________
Week 1 of the preseason vs. The Tennessee Titans, I said the Seahawks were winning the superbowl...
"Oh and by the way, Go Hawks!!!" Russel Wilson
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skater18000
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:40 pm |
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| NET Rookie |
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Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:14 pm
Posts: 296
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MeenReen wrote: skater18000 wrote: MeenReen wrote: Yeah, man, 60% is chance is a homer prediction. Best case scenario, we are probably at like a 2/3 chance to beat Buffalo this week(on the road against a potentially explosive offense), and 50/50 to beat SF. SF has probably like 1/4 chance to beat NE on the road, and a 50/50 chance against us. Best case scenario, we are at like .333 to be in position for week 17 to matter. Week 16? No, I meant week 17. Week 16 will obviously matter if we win against the Bills and SF loses to NE, which is entirely possible. That would put us .5 games in the lead, correct (if we beat SF)? Missing the point Week 15: @ bills Week 16 vs 49ers Week 17 vs rams We play the rams in week 17
_________________
Week 1 of the preseason vs. The Tennessee Titans, I said the Seahawks were winning the superbowl...
"Oh and by the way, Go Hawks!!!" Russel Wilson
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MeenReen
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:00 am |
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| NET Veteran |
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Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:46 am
Posts: 508
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Buddy, I get that. You were the one that started the thread based on probability. So don't state that the STL game is a gimme (there is no such thing). Even if we beat Buffalo AND SF, and SF loses to both of us, that puts SF at 9-5-1 and us at 10-5. That puts week 17 in to play. If they were to win in week 17, and us to lose, they go to 10-5-1 and we go to 10-6.
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harmonized1
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:29 am |
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| NET Bench Warmer |
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 10:27 am
Posts: 34
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100% chance of making the playoffs and 100% chance of beating some ass!
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rideaducati
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:15 am |
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| NET Veteran |
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Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2012 3:18 pm
Posts: 548
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You had me right up to the point that you told me you love T Jack. Personally, I love that he is GONE.
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dunceface
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:59 am |
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| NET Veteran |
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Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2011 10:29 am
Posts: 1913
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Math is stupid GO HAWKS!
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The Radish
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:02 am |
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| * NET Radish * |
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Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:18 pm
Posts: 14174
Location: Spokane, Wa.
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I'm not sure about SF being so much better than the Pats. The Patriots hate being bullied on the field. That's why they wound up losing to us and losing a past SB. San Francisco is as capable of knocking the snot out of a team as we are and very capable of beating New England at New England. I'm thinkin they have slid a bit recently and want to show the rest of the league they are still at least in the top 10 of the NFL.  _________________  Still missing you everyday pal.
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hidn
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:38 am |
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| NET Starter |
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Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2010 3:18 pm
Posts: 437
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
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So I did some quick number crunching for the people who actually care.
Chance of winning division:
Niners (9-3-1) (4-2 on road) @ Patriots (10-3) (5-1 at home):
Winning differential: 6.8% Patriots
Road vs Home differential: 17% Patriots
Adjusted Winning Differential: 10.2%
Odds: 60.2% chance of Patriots win
Seahawks @ Bills:
Seahawks (8-5) (2-5 on road) @ Bills (5-8) (3-3 at home):
Winning differential: 22.6% Seattle
Road vs Home differential: 22% Bills
Adjusted Winning Differential: .3% Seattle
Odds: 50.3% chance of Seahawks win
Niners (9-3-1) (4-2 on road) @ Seahawks (8-5) (6-0 at home):
Winning differential: 8.2% diff Niners
Road vs Home differential: 34% diff Sseahawks
Adjusted Winning differential: 8.8% Seahawks
Odds: 58.8% chance of Seahawks win
Rams (6-6-1) (2-3-1) @ Seahawks (8-5) (6-0 at home):
Winning differential: 14.9% Seahawks
Road vs Home differential: 67% Seahawks
Adjusted Winning differential: 40.9% Seahawks
Odds: 90.9% chance of Seahawks win
If you multiply all of these odds you end up with a 16.18% chance of winning the division.
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hidn
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:51 am |
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| NET Starter |
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Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2010 3:18 pm
Posts: 437
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
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I do admit that that odd might be a little low since the 49ers do play Arizona at home, I just think that the chance of arizona winning is around 0% so I didn't spend the time to calculate it.
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formido
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Post subject: Re: If I told you that going into week 15... Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:11 am |
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| NET Practice Squad |
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Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:41 pm
Posts: 97
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Football Outsiders has the odds of Seattle getting various playoff seeds based on the rest of the schedule and their DVOA rating system (best in the biz in my mind). Before last week's game they had our odds of winning the division at 32%. It hasn't been updated yet, but Seattle's and NE's DVOAs will be higher after their decisive wins this last weekend, so Seattle's odds may have improved a little. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
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