Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game

HawkAroundTheClock":3bvxpmkt said:

kearly":3bvxpmkt said:

So yeah, this game was very emotional. It was probably the most emotional game I've experienced in the regular season since the Giants game in 2005. What a great win.

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Totally agree. The funny thing is, I was all centered and serene just before kickoff. I was convinced I would handle this game calmly. Then the Lynch fumble on the 1st drive... and all calmness was out the window.

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And then Wilson catches it.

Great post kearly, as per usual. ;-)

Your usual great post we all wait for. I agree I think RW is a saviour for us, I have said so in a back handed post, but god I love that he puts this team on his sholders and carry's us.

You forgot to mention on the terrible officiating, the refs premature whistle on the Bears punt returners fumble where Seattle recovered the football. Such bull****.

therealjohncarlson":c6msjirs said:

There was a front angle view that pretty clearly showed the front nose of the ball on the ground between his hands.

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I know the view and what they were saying but I just wasn't seeing it. I wasn't trying to be biased either, just as a football fan I did not see anything but a catch.

I hope you don't mind me tacking on a random thought here Kearly, but to me... when Lovie went for it on 4th down on what would have been an easy FG and make it a two score game I said out loud, "THIS TEAM HAS NO RESPECT FOR YOU HAWKS!". I hope like heck that Pete was yelling at the guys at halftime that the Bears didn't respect them enough to kick a field goal, and the Hawks had the pride, fortitude, strength to stop that drive and win the ball on downs. To me that was a massive turning point because I think the Hawks felt disrespected, disgusted, etc. but also proud that they knocked Bush right back down on his butt and said "Hell no!". It was a really big blunder by Lovie no matter how much Tim Ryan liked the call. You take the points, and you absolutely do NOT give a team "in game bulletin board material" like that. I loved the response and could see when the offense came back out that they were pissed seeing that Chicago disrespected them so badly that they thought nothing of leaving points on the field and giving the ball up. That will fire you up. I saw it in Golden, RW, Sid, Marshawn, M-Rob, the whole line, Zach (who was busting his butt to get open), and of course Baldwin who outleaped everybody for a spectacular catch. It was sweet to see the team just get fed up and not take that crap lightly, because to me, that was a horsecrap call that really did show no respect, and I believe they paid for it, because the game completely turned on that one play.

SharkHawk":vujygsoy said:

I hope you don't mind me tacking on a random thought here Kearly, but to me... when Lovie went for it on 4th down on what would have been an easy FG and make it a two score game I said out loud, "THIS TEAM HAS NO RESPECT FOR YOU HAWKS!". I hope like heck that Pete was yelling at the guys at halftime that the Bears didn't respect them enough to kick a field goal, and the Hawks had the pride, fortitude, strength to stop that drive and win the ball on downs. To me that was a massive turning point because I think the Hawks felt disrespected, disgusted, etc. but also proud that they knocked Bush right back down on his butt and said "Hell no!". It was a really big blunder by Lovie no matter how much Tim Ryan liked the call. You take the points, and you absolutely do NOT give a team "in game bulletin board material" like that. I loved the response and could see when the offense came back out that they were pissed seeing that Chicago disrespected them so badly that they thought nothing of leaving points on the field and giving the ball up. That will fire you up. I saw it in Golden, RW, Sid, Marshawn, M-Rob, the whole line, Zach (who was busting his butt to get open), and of course Baldwin who outleaped everybody for a spectacular catch. It was sweet to see the team just get fed up and not take that crap lightly, because to me, that was a horsecrap call that really did show no respect, and I believe they paid for it, because the game completely turned on that one play.

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Great post Shark. Guessing Kearly ain't gonna mind one bit.

Another great post Kip

I still feel our tight ends need to be involved more. This game was no exception, although there was a HUGE conversion on the last drive caught by a TE IIRC.

SharkHawk":1rf3dkdl said:

I hope you don't mind me tacking on a random thought here Kearly, but to me... when Lovie went for it on 4th down on what would have been an easy FG and make it a two score game I said out loud, "THIS TEAM HAS NO RESPECT FOR YOU HAWKS!". I hope like heck that Pete was yelling at the guys at halftime that the Bears didn't respect them enough to kick a field goal, and the Hawks had the pride, fortitude, strength to stop that drive and win the ball on downs. To me that was a massive turning point because I think the Hawks felt disrespected, disgusted, etc. but also proud that they knocked Bush right back down on his butt and said "Hell no!". It was a really big blunder by Lovie no matter how much Tim Ryan liked the call. You take the points, and you absolutely do NOT give a team "in game bulletin board material" like that. I loved the response and could see when the offense came back out that they were pissed seeing that Chicago disrespected them so badly that they thought nothing of leaving points on the field and giving the ball up. That will fire you up. I saw it in Golden, RW, Sid, Marshawn, M-Rob, the whole line, Zach (who was busting his butt to get open), and of course Baldwin who outleaped everybody for a spectacular catch. It was sweet to see the team just get fed up and not take that crap lightly, because to me, that was a horsecrap call that really did show no respect, and I believe they paid for it, because the game completely turned on that one play.

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Bonehead call by Lovie, I agree. They have a beat up O-Line with a banged up RB and a great defense. Take the points. However, there are some teams (like SF) where I think you have to go for it purely based on the size and athleticism of their O-Line.

Great write up.One thing I disagree with is the Oline.In my opinion they just maybe the week link of the team.Wilson and Lynch have masked the problems we have had for most of the season.
Wilson is too valuable to us to have him scrambling so much.His health is definitly worth investing more picks in this Oline

I lost faith in NBA officiating when Phoenix beat the Sonics in the 7th game of the Western Conference Finals so that Charles Barkley could play Jordan. The Suns went to the line four times as often as Seattle. A referee from that game is now in Federal prison.

When I see officiating in a game like this, I just have to wonder.

Loved the read option. Told my buddy they could run that all day and it would work, and it did for 70+ yards! Wish they would have done more of that last week when Miami was keying in on Lynch for limited gains. Certainly does add that extra dimension

On the broadcast I loved how Ryan did not notice Red Bryant was starting and called him out until I believe the 3rd possesion.The starting LB core-A rookie and 2 second year guys.I noticed Malcom Smith all night.Thought he was very good,I also like him as a blitzer.WT3 I noticed a few times but not really in a bad way.He seemed OK.I would go with him over Tru next week even if Tru is healthy.

Holy wall of text batman! :shock: Excellent post, but I think it may be in competition for the longest you've done yet. :mrgreen:

SharkHawk":3b6ay5xr said:

I hope you don't mind me tacking on a random thought here Kearly, but to me... when Lovie went for it on 4th down on what would have been an easy FG and make it a two score game I said out loud, "THIS TEAM HAS NO RESPECT FOR YOU HAWKS!". I hope like heck that Pete was yelling at the guys at halftime that the Bears didn't respect them enough to kick a field goal, and the Hawks had the pride, fortitude, strength to stop that drive and win the ball on downs. To me that was a massive turning point because I think the Hawks felt disrespected, disgusted, etc. but also proud that they knocked Bush right back down on his butt and said "Hell no!". It was a really big blunder by Lovie no matter how much Tim Ryan liked the call. You take the points, and you absolutely do NOT give a team "in game bulletin board material" like that. I loved the response and could see when the offense came back out that they were pissed seeing that Chicago disrespected them so badly that they thought nothing of leaving points on the field and giving the ball up. That will fire you up. I saw it in Golden, RW, Sid, Marshawn, M-Rob, the whole line, Zach (who was busting his butt to get open), and of course Baldwin who outleaped everybody for a spectacular catch. It was sweet to see the team just get fed up and not take that crap lightly, because to me, that was a horsecrap call that really did show no respect, and I believe they paid for it, because the game completely turned on that one play.

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It doesn't have anything to do with disrespect. Going for it on 4th-and-1 in the opponents' territory is almost always the correct call. Here is a great article on Chip Kelly and aggressive playcalling. It was a great call by Lovie even though it didn't work. The momentum shift theory doesn't hold here either considering the Seahawks didn't even reach midfield on the ensuing possession.

jewhawk":1khmqswb said:

It doesn't have anything to do with disrespect. Going for it on 4th-and-1 in the opponents' territory is almost always the correct call. Here is a great article on Chip Kelly and aggressive playcalling. It was a great call by Lovie even though it didn't work. The momentum shift theory doesn't hold here either considering the Seahawks didn't even reach midfield on the ensuing possession.

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Don't misunderstand me, I agree with you in spirit- I think teams are generally too conservative and should go for 4th down more often in certain situations.

That said, Chicago on the season is around 40% on 4th down tries. They had not been running the ball well at that point in the game either and Seattle's run defense is very good. If we accept the 40% number as meaningful, then that means they were risking 3 points for a 40% chance to *maybe* get 7. Except that the odds are actually lower than even that- because even after they convert they'd still need to finish the drive and score. Maybe they have a turnover or maybe they end up kicking a fieldgoal later in the drive and the risk was for naught.

The further you are from the end zone, the harder it is to justify going for it (unless you are in a 4 down game situation, obviously). That's because the further you are from the endzone, the lower your odds are that you'll actually get that TD. So going for it on 4th and 1 at the 5 yard line is a lot better than going for 4th and 1 at the 25 yard line. The exception to that is if a field goal is not realistic, so going for it at the 40 could be a smart move as a punt doesn't get you much and the reward of a first down easily outweighs the reward of a 20-39 yard punt.

The 4th down play in question was at the Seattle 15. That's iffy if you ask me. If they do convert, Chicago's red zone TD rate is 51% for the season. For simplicity lets assume that if Chicago makes the 1st but doesn't score a TD that they get the FG attempt. A 40% of conversion x a 51% chance of finishing the deal is just 20%. So there is a 20% chance the gamble pays off, a roughly 20% chance of breaking even (they convert but kick the FG anyway), and a 60% chance of the gamble backfiring.

I do think that the gamble is worth it in certain situations. If it's 4th and goal at the 1 yard line then the risk is worth it because you're basically talking a 40% chance of a TD in that situation and even if you lose, the Seahawks will likely 3 and out at their own one and give you good field position back. I think it's also worth it at the 35-40 range because FGs that long are about about as unlikely as a 4th down conversion would be. And if it's just outside FG range it's definitely worth it unless you have an amazing special teams group that can reliably pin punts inside the 10.

But at the 15 yard line, I think the 60% chance of not getting the 10 point lead outweighs the 20% chance of getting a 14 point lead.

kearly":2875z9bq said:

If we accept the 40% number as meaningful,

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This is where I disagree with your analysis. If the Bears true conversion rate on 4th and 1 is 40%, you're right that kicking would have been right, but their being 40% (4 of 10) on 4th downs this year potentially includes situations like 4th and 10 late in games they were trailing or other situations where conversions would be more difficult than 4th and 1. ANS wrote a detailed 4-part article a few years ago studying 4th down decisions. On part 3 of that article, there is a graph with league-wide 4th down conversion percentage based on distance to go and field position. Between the 10 and 20, the conversion percentage on 4th and 1 is approximately 75%. Maybe you can adjust that down a bit in this situation because of Seattle's strong defense, but it is still much closer to 75% than 40%.

Awesome post and observations, as usual!

He's back! I LOVE your writeups kearly, but the last few or maybe two, have been kinda short, dissapointing like the games you are writing about. This one was great tho, best Kearly write up of the best Hawks game so far this year!
Much respect.

That was an awesome game. Its possible to represent the 12th at home? I was yellin and aw...

Officiating was bad but I also believe the Bears have some real play makers.

For us to be better I think we need upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines; also Tight Ends. Nothing wrong with some free agent additions.

Playmaking can be contagious. McCoy threw himself in a Tatesc kind of way. It has taken some time to establish a routine with Tate and Rice.

Maybe next year camp will emphasize more the routine and less recycled players.

Good show.