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 Post subject: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 7:56 am 
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Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?

If yes, what is going to be the key for the Seahawks making a playoff run this season?
If no, what will be our downfall?

On a percentage scale, what would you give the Hawks likeliness of making the wildcard round? IMO, it's 60%. Although we have two relatively weak teams (actually the Bears haven't been playing well lately), so three soft teams in our remaining road games. The Seahawks just aren't the same team when they're on the road. We should have beaten the Cards and Rams earlier this season. But, at least we were still in every one of those games until the very end. We will destroy both the Rams and Cardinals at home. The only home game I'm worried about is against the 49ers.

So.. If we win at least two of our three road games. Then beat St. Louis and Arizona at home, we will be 10-6. Which should be good for a Wildcard game. Am I right? I would really like to win every game, but six straight wins (actually 8 in a row) just isn't realistic. I could handle 5-1 :D .. What do you think our record for the last six games will be?

If the Hawks make it, we're looking at a wildcard game. I haven't figured out the chances of getting a bye. Even if we win every game from here on out..? I know there are some teams with really good records. Falcons top the NFC at 9-1, last time I checked, SF was in second place. Correct me if i'm wrong.

[Side Note: Aaron Curry was waived by the Raiders. Anyone think his NFL career is over? Or will someone grab him? I know we won't. He is a definite bust. However, I wish the guy the best.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:46 am 
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I'm gonna go with a firm maybe.

I'm gonna say there is about a 75% chance we end up at 10-6. I kinda feel like 11-5 is gonna happen but 10-6 is more realistic.

With that said, I don't know if we make the playoffs. Not only is our division competitive against each other but the whole NFC is stacked. A 10-6 team will likely miss the playoffs this year. There are a couple red hot teams putting pressure on the Hawks.

This team is on the rise and I'm expecting big things next season. I have a feeling our losses this year will come back to haunt us.


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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:51 am 
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Being 100% honest, I am a little worried about the next 2 road games, but YES, I think we will make the playoffs, but if we want to do something in the playoffs, we must be able to win in the road.


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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:51 am 
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I think we are a favorite to get in. Looking at the schedule we should finish strong and make the playoffs. I am looking forward to payback against SF


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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:58 am 
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I'm 100% convinced we're going to make the playoffs this year. Last year this team was far better in the second half of the season than the first half, and that was with T Jack at the helm. I think this team is gelling and getting hot at the right time, and we're going to win 5 of the next 6.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:19 am 
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Football Outsiders playoff odds based on DVOA and remaining schedules.

The Seahawks are 75% to make the playoffs, 24.8% to win the division, 13.1% to reach the Super Bowl, and 7% to win the Super Bowl, the 6th most likely team to win the Super Bowl behind NE, Den, SF, Hou, and GB.


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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:20 am 
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There are no "gimme" wins in this league, as some teams did find out this weekend, or almost found out. That said, I think the only game that isn't a gimme at home for us is SF. If we win out at home, that puts us at 9 wins, which probably needs some help to win the 6th seed in the NFC this year. If we win out at home, and win one road game, we're at 10 wins and solidy in the wildcard, with some help probably needed to get the 5th seed.

I'd give us a 75% chance of making the playoffs at this point (not accounting for injuries). If we lose the home game to SF, we'd need to win 2 of the road games, likely MIA and BUF. If we win out at home, we'd only need to win one road game.

It's going to be interesting. SF is playing better lately, but they have a lot of road games in a row before they get to us. Their QB situation is all of the sudden in a flux, and if Harbitch gets cute with the QBs, it could screw up their season. They are in a position like us; if they win out, they're golden, if they lose 1 game, it opens the door for us to win the division if we take care of business. Both teams are in must win game situations, every week.

Miami isn't a great home team, but they have a very good defense. Our defense should have it's way, but our offense has to step up, and Wilson has to show continued growth on the road this week. Very winnable game.

Buffalo isn't a gimme win, unlike Miami, they play tough at home. We have much more talent than they do, and should win this game, but this is a statement game for us, that we can win on the road.

Many of us are conceding the CHI game, but I'm hoping Pete has his boys ready to go. If we get to Cutler, we can win going away. Browner or Sherman can probably neutralize Marshall, once again a statement game for our defense. Chi now looks like they can run on, which is good news for us.


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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:31 am 
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Yes we'll make the playoffs coming off an 8 game winning streak. We will end the season 12-4 winners of the division and possesors of the #2 seed in the playoffs giving us a WC bye week. Heck if I'm going to dream than I'm going to dream big.

And why not. There is NO ONE on the schedule that scares me. Miami and Buffalo should be wins going away if this team plays like it has the last few weeks. The Bears are good, but they aren't great. They built their resume off of weak teams, it was always talked about that they thrive off turnovers. We'll what happens when the turnovers don't come? Answer- they are just a so-so defense. The Packers and 49ers beat them down. There offense is shaky with an hot/cold Jay Cutler and who still has issues with playcalling not taking into account a weak OL. Why shouldn't we win this game, I ask myself? Answer we have good chance at being 2-0 the next 2 weeks.

Then you've got the ailing Cards at Home and followed by a road game (for both teams) to Toronto. I fully expect us to be 10-4 going into the 49ers game, which will be the biggest game of the year and will decide the division. Then the Rams to close things out. If the teams plays like I know they can we can pull it off. As for the #2 seed, if SF loses to NE or NO, or anyone else and we run the table we win the division, If the Packers lose 1 more game we get the #2 seed - again assuming we go 6-0 as we'll hold tiebreakers over GB and Chicago.


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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:43 am 
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I think we will make the playoffs. The team is playing very well right now. I would love to win the division. We have 3 home games left against Division opponents, all revenge games. Oh yeah, we are freakin' beastly at home too. SF has 2/3 of their games left on the road including games @NE, @NO, and @SEA. These next two games for the seahawks should tell us a lot. I see this weekend's game as a must win. Sure it is on the other corner of the country, but it is after the bye week. Beating Chicago in Soldier will be pretty tough. If we don't at least split the games of Miami/Buffalo, then that will be our downfall. I think our record down the stretch will probably be 4-2. I think 10 wins will get us in. We beat Minnesota. We beat Green Bay. We beat the Cowboys. Tampa Bay has a pretty tough schedule left. If New Orleans puts together some wins they might be a team to watch out for.


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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:43 am 
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I like our chances at the division and I'm not being a naive homer.

I believe we will beat SF at home which would only put us 1/2 back.

Let's say we played the 9ers next week and we won...we would be 7-4 and they would be 7-3-1...If they lose to the Saints and Patriots (or Cards, rams, Dolphins), and we only lose one other game this year (probably Chicago). Then we will be 11-5 while that would make them 10-5-1..

I believe.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:03 am 
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HawkEye wrote:
Being 100% honest, I am a little worried about the next 2 road games, but YES, I think we will make the playoffs, but if we want to do something in the playoffs, we must be able to win in the road.


This is pretty much how I feel.

With that said:

We win both: 90%
We lose both: 35%
We win one: 65%

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:23 am 
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I think we get in at 10-6 by winning some type of tie-breaker. 1-2 on the road, and winning the final 3 at home. Yes, I think we beat the precious, media humping Forty Niners.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:29 am 
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I like our chances winning the division not just making playoffs

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:34 am 
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I think we are making the playoffs. I'd give us about an 80% chance. The key is improving on the road. If we do a little extra work on the road, then it will take the pressure off of the Niner game (although I feel like we can beat them).

I feel like the key is the Offense continuing to improve and getting pressure on the QB on Defense.

It would be too easy to say the key is 3rd down on Offense and Defense, but that is what it boils down to. I have never seen a team give up so many third and longs. I was telling my wife, I would rather see our Defense face a 3rd and 2 than a 3rd and 8.


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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:10 am 
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I think the Chicago game factors heavily for us. If they can beat the bears on the road and then return to the clink on a high no one would want to walk through that tunnel against them! That being said I still think 10 wins gets us in the playoffs and 11 wins the division.

Go Hawks.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:26 am 
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I think the Chicago game factors heavily for us. If they can beat the bears on the road and then return to the clink on a high no one would want to walk through that tunnel against them! That being said I still think 10 wins gets us in the playoffs and 11 wins the division.

Go Hawks.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:22 pm 
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Get back to me after Sunday .. if they beat Miami I feel a lot better about it.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:52 pm 
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Hasselbeck wrote:
Get back to me after Sunday .. if they beat Miami I feel a lot better about it.

I'm with Hasselbeck, except I won't be certain about how I feel for 6 more weeks. 10 games just isn't enough for me to know how I feel so far.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:10 pm 
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I like our chances quite a bit. We have some what of a chance to control our own fate. I think we'll finish 11-5. We'll beat the Phins, lose to the Bears and then win against the Rams, Cards, and Niners in seattle and beat the Bills in Canadia.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:23 pm 
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Tampa and New Orleans have me concerned. As well as having 3 must win against division opponents. Hopefully Lindley and Bradford continue to flounder as well as putting a whole game together against the division leader.

Will know much better after the Chicago game on what I think about the chances of making the playoffs.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:27 pm 
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This chart shows we have a 53% probability of making the playoffs. Interesting how the Vikings actually control their own destiny yet still have only 24% shot at the playoffs. Weird.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:45 pm 
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nevermind

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:19 pm 
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Yes we'll make the playoffs coming off an 8 game winning streak. We will end the season 12-4 winners of the division and possesors of the #2 seed in the playoffs giving us a WC bye week. Heck if I'm going to dream than I'm going to dream big.

And why not. There is NO ONE on the schedule that scares me. Miami and Buffalo should be wins going away if this team plays like it has the last few weeks. The Bears are good, but they aren't great. They built their resume off of weak teams, it was always talked about that they thrive off turnovers. We'll what happens when the turnovers don't come? Answer- they are just a so-so defense. The Packers and 49ers beat them down. There offense is shaky with an hot/cold Jay Cutler and who still has issues with playcalling not taking into account a weak OL. Why shouldn't we win this game, I ask myself? Answer we have good chance at being 2-0 the next 2 weeks.

Then you've got the ailing Cards at Home and followed by a road game (for both teams) to Toronto. I fully expect us to be 10-4 going into the 49ers game, which will be the biggest game of the year and will decide the division. Then the Rams to close things out. If the teams plays like I know they can we can pull it off. As for the #2 seed, if SF loses to NE or NO, or anyone else and we run the table we win the division, If the Packers lose 1 more game we get the #2 seed - again assuming we go 6-0 as we'll hold tiebreakers over GB and Chicago.



This is exactly how I feel, and I'm going to add to it a bit. There's no reason why we can't win out, and taking the #2 seed is certainly possible. Taking the #1 seed would require a lot of help, so I have my sights set on the #2 seed. We can and should beat anyone at home, even SF. If you believe in Football Outsiders' DVOA stats, and I do, we're better than everyone on our remaining schedule except SF, but we can still beat them at home.

I'm pretty much smoking RW's pole right now, but I believe that with his continued growth week to week, he's going to rise up to every remaining challenge this year. Don't bet against this kid.

**Premature Speculation Alert** Part of our problem on the road against SF and DET was the middle of the defense. Pro Football Focus said Mebane started the year as one of the best DTs in the league, and slipped recently. Maybe thats due to a nagging injury or fatigue, and maybe all he needed was a bye week. With how physical this defense is, perhaps the entire defense needed a bye week. I think the bye will reinvigorate the defense. **End premature speculation**

We can beat Chicago. We have a very similar style of team to SF, and they destroyed Chicago. Sherman can take Marshall out of the game. Without him, they don't have much of an offense. They can't pass protect, and if Mebane does actually get better after the bye, we can shut down Forte too. This is a game where our defense should dominate. Hester isn't much of a threat to return kicks or punts for TDs this year. If Cutler is out for any extended period of time with his concussion and misses this game, I would guarantee a victory. All we have to do is not turn the ball over.

I think the biggest hurdle to getting the #2 seed is relying on Green Bay to lose another game. They have some tough games left, but certainly no games you would expect them to lose. They are just as capable as us at winning out.

With all that said, its possible SF beats NO and NE and leaves us with the wild card. That's out of our control. Assuming an NFC North team takes one wild card, our competition for the other wild card is Tampa Bay and Dallas.

Due to beating Dallas earlier this year, they have to finish a game better than us, which means they have to win out (11-5) and we finish 10-6. No way in hell that happens, especially with games against Pittsburgh and New Orleans on their schedule (doesn't matter that those are home games...they have no HFA).

Tampa Bay has a very tough schedule remaining. They play Atlanta twice, at Denver, and at New Orleans. They'd be lucky to finish 10-6, and we'd be unlucky to finish 10-6. So I'd put our chances of making the playoffs at 95% (not 100% because random stuff does happen) and our chances of winning the division at 60%.


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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:43 pm 
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Hate to say it (phrase has a history) but I like our chances. The 75% number works for me.

The NFC puts a 9-7 team in the playoffs almost every season. I expect us to go 11-5 (just like in my pre-season prediction :)) but 10-6 would not be a huge disappointment, either. Sot the record shouldn't be a problem.

The division losses were bad, but we have won some other games that will weigh heavy in the tie-breakers, against GB, Dallas, and Minn.

With 3 home games remaining, I think the odds are in our favor to make the playoffs, and the Div title is still within reach.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 6:50 pm 
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I hope and trust the team can focus on each game and not be distracted knowing they are in a position to make the playoffs. As cliche as this is... they really cannot afford to look past any teams and ahead to the playoffs yet. That will take care of itself. Having said all that... I sure HOPE this team makes the playoffs (I don't care if they're not supposed to yet or not ready yet or not as good as they're going to be yet). This team will be a DANGERUSS (sorry, I couldn't resist) team no one wants to face in the playoffs. I think if they can continue improving and get hot / peak going into the playoffs... anything can happen. The thing about the playoffs is that you don't have to beat every one of the other 5 teams. Good teams will knock off other good teams. I'm not saying we're Super Bowl bound, but... you never know. Stranger things have happened. So, I would be disappointed to have a dangerous team just miss the playoffs. (What was that year again?)

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 7:05 pm 
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All we have to hope for as far as last weekend's bye is concerned is that RW is not the type of QB that needs to play every week to maintain his quarterbacking production.

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 5:40 am 
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If this team can win some road games there is no doubt they will make the playoffs. The key will be to stay perfect at home and snag a couple away. I have confidence they can do it. :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: Do you like our chances of making the playoffs?
 Post Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 1:28 pm 
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Umm go Saints.


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