We just need to win the games we are expected to win. Jets, Cardinals and Rams at home. That's eight wins there. Of the remaining games - Dolphins, Bears, Bills and Niners, it's not unfair to expect to split those to get to ten. Even if you win one of those four - nine wins might get you in.
The only games I'm worried about are Chicago and the Niners. The Bills are bad, the Dolphins haven't played anybody (neither have the Bears for that matter) the Jets are medicore and the Cards and Rams are fading. 10-6 is realistic with 11-5 a real possibility.