Expectations & Perspective (long one-enter at your own risk)

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  • Now that the dust has settled from the Lions game and emotions have cooled...I got to thinking. Should we really be upset with a 4-4 record at this point? As many have pointed out in here, a lot of us looked at the first half schedule and "hoped" we could get out of it at .500.

    We've played a very tough schedule - not just the opponents but the circumstance (like having to play the 49ers on the road on a Thursday Night, teams having extra time to prepare for us because of scheduling, etc.), 5 of the first 8 on the road including only one in the last month. The Cardinals are now arriving in the hard part of their schedule and look what is happening -- four straight losses with road games looming in Green Bay and Atlanta. We've faced a particularly offensive heavy opponent slate so far (Dallas, Green Bay, New England and Detroit were all considered very good to elite offenses and you have to account for any Cam Newton offense).

    We have started two rookie QBs -- Russell Wilson, obviously, but also Bobby Wagner at the "Mike" - the 'QB of the defense'. There are growing pains with rookies.

    We labored under the three-headed QB circus well into camp which had an impact on the cohesion of the offense. We also have missed an extremely vital piece of our offensive identity, Doug Baldwin, for most of the reps since camp started and into the season.

    10 QBs passed for 4000 yards in 2011...and we've already played 5 of them (Brady, Stafford, Rodgers, Romo, Newton). The fact that our defense still ranks high in both yards and points allowed speaks volumes, although obviously we have seen them struggle a bit the last few weeks.

    We rolled the dice on the WR position, even looking at guys like T.O. and Antonio Bryant, and hoped we would have enough to make a difference. That's open to interpretation so far (and you all know how I feel about the position outside of Rice and Baldwin). I hold Pete and John accountable for this - not saying there were obvious moves we could have made especially in the draft, but at some point they need to permanently fix the position. I suspect Year 4 of the plan is where they are going to take care of it.

    I think the early back-to-back wins over Dallas and Green Bay may have created a false sense of the true status of the franchise, especially after the "miracle" way we won the Packers game that might have created the illusion of "this is a special season". I'm not saying it's NOT a special season, I just wonder if we got suckered into the hype a little.

    I won't argue with those that are frustrated with the WAY we have lost close games. I share your frustrations, because a few plays here and there and we might be 6-2 or even 7-1 right now. There are glaring things we need to fix - 3rd down defense and creating more turnovers primarily, IMO. Watching Detroit burn the last 5 mins of the clock and march 80 yards to win in the last :20 of that game was a kick in the junk - but I really hope it gets the attention of Pete, Gus Bradley and the defense and it's something we look back on as a learning point and not a trend setter.

    But we are also seeing Wilson getting better and better, and while he may never be a top-5 QB in the league he fixes his mistakes and shows improvement and the offense is showing tantalizing signs of its potential with a few tweaks here and there. Look at it this way -- remember all the threads in the first few weeks about Wilson being indecisive, not staying in the pocket and missing open receivers? You don't see those now, and for a good reason.

    Of our four losses, only one really makes me shake my head after further inspection - St. Louis. But even then, we were playing on a short week coming off a very emotional and controversial win over Green Bay, and there's no doubt the Rams are much more competitive. The first loss against Arizona? Week 1...on the road...a rookie QB's first start -- all bets were off, and yet we had a chance to win it. There's certainly no shame in losing in San Francisco on a very short week, against a 49ers team coming off an embarassing home loss to the G Men. There is also no shame in losing to a cornered/desperate Detroit team that came out trying to salvage their season, in their house.

    Losses suck - but they are not the Jim Mora Jr. era losses where we were losing by 15-20 points. We've been in EVERY game. It doesn't help the blood pressure and in some ways it seems tougher to lose the close ones, when we can see the "W" in the grasp. But at the very least, we have the team we have longed for -- tough and combative and not a finesse team that nobody was afraid of.

    But here we are...looking at 10-6/11-5 if some things go REALLY well but certainly 9-7 at the least, I would suspect. Considering all of the above factors, is that a travesty? A lot of people want to contrast us with the 49ers, but we are not on the same point of the rebuild arc as San Francisco is. The 49ers are loaded with upper-level talent because they were bad for a long time and collected a lot of top draft picks that enabled them to draft the cornerstones of their team. The Seahawks, however, are usually in that middle-of-the-road status and have not had the same ability to ascend as quickly (IMO). This by know means is meant to take a shot at the 49ers - I give them credit for building that team, but let's be fair - they have had a LOT of ammunition to do it. The decade of poor performance before Harbaugh arrived was fertile ground for them to acquire the likes of Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith.

    Just wondering aloud, boys and girls...fire away.
    Last edited by FlyingGreg on Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Expectations & Perspective
Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:12 pm
  • Great post and I have nothing to add at the moment but will try adding something of value as it develops. These guys just need to not kick the home-cooking and see if they can do something with the last 3 road games.

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  • Im very happy with this team. We have a chance every single week no matter who we play.

    what else could we ask for?
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  • EastCoastHawksFan wrote:Im very happy with this team. We have a chance every single week no matter who we play.

    what else could we ask for?



    .....a win?? :roll:
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  • Great post. I agree. It is really frustrating losing, especially when the cornerstone of your team folds like a tent. I think the offenses production in 2 of the last 3 weeks has been very encouraging and I would hope to see a very good game against the Vikings. they are ripe for the taking, yet they are very good. If we can get to the bye week with a 6-4 record-- Jet's is also very winnable I think we'll be very happy with where we are.

    The encouraging part is our 3 road games are very winable. I hope we can kick the road bug and win 2 of those 3.

    10 wins this year, regardless if we make the playoffs will be a success IMO. 9 wins is what I expect, anything below that I'll be extremely dissapointed. I too beleive they will restock our WR/TE through the draft or by other means.
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  • Good stuff Greg...I agree with your points. I do think that the Packers/Cowboys wins set us up for perhaps unrealistic expectations on how "special" this season could be. What a spectacular finish to the franchise it could be, what, with the Mayans coming back to blow us all to Hell.

    ;)

    From a blood pressure perspective, I HATE these close games that come down to the final second. Yuck. It may be good entertainment for some, but for me it's a one-way ticket to Palpitation City. If we are going to win, let it be decisive so I can sit back and enjoy the game without the aortic flippy flops (that's the medical term I'm sure). Or if we are going to lose, don't keep my hopes up through much of the game only to crush my hopes and dreams with a gloriously disgusting display of soft zone garbage.

    4-4 is a microcosm of our history, no? Sure we've lost more than 8 games, and won more, but I bet if you go back and look at our complete history, it would probably balance out to around 8-8. So at 4-4, history seems to suggest that we are most likely looking at an 8-8 season when all is said and done. That's making the mostly large assumption that we will win most of the rest of our home games, and lose most if not the rest of our away games. Sure we could easily go 9-7 and with some luck 10-6 even. As we know, the games are almost always decided by one play or one series in a game.

    I think I am disappointed most in the defense. We all had them pegged and primed to be Top 5, and while certainly they could still end up Top 5, I've just seen some real disturbing trends the past few weeks that elite defenses don't seem to go through in the course of a dominating season. We're young, yes. But please, for the love of Brian Blades, PLEASE Mr. Bradley, call the right schemes and play MAN COVERAGE on 3rd and longs!!
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  • You might add that Detroit has been like San Fran, too. They've been drafting high for forever and have a few top talent guys on their roster, too.
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  • Is it too late for a 'TL;DR' to still be funny?
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  • Pete and John want to build this team like San Francisco, Atlanta, and and Houston. You'll notice it took a while for them to climb to the top of the pile, but now that they have, they're going to be around for a while.
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  • Aros wrote:4-4 is a microcosm of our history, no? Sure we've lost more than 8 games, and won more, but I bet if you go back and look at our complete history, it would probably balance out to around 8-8. So at 4-4, history seems to suggest that we are most likely looking at an 8-8 season when all is said and done. That's making the mostly large assumption that we will win most of the rest of our home games, and lose most if not the rest of our away games. Sure we could easily go 9-7 and with some luck 10-6 even. As we know, the games are almost always decided by one play or one series in a game.


    I was thinking the same thing. I did a quick calculation, and you are basically right on. Making a few adjustments for the strike shortened seasons, and the two seasons the Seahawks existed prior to the 16 game schedule (only 14 games their first two years), the Seahawks have averaged 7.62 victories per season.
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  • Great post.. I do disagree about Wilson. I think he will be top 5.. i have no proof just a gut feeling.. Great post thou..
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  • redeye81 wrote:Great post.. I do disagree about Wilson. I think he will be top 5.. i have no proof just a gut feeling.. Great post thou..


    Thanks. I think he will too.
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  • I'm content at the moment with 4-4, frustrated with the losses because they were all winable games, optimistic though because all 4 losses were so close. I think the next 2 games will be crucial in setting up an end of season run.
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  • Good post and good perspective.
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  • Great post, Greg. Perspective is key in keeping one's sanity! :)
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  • Good post Greg. JR/GR. (Just right, great read).
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  • Thanks Greg.... like many, I think I got my expectations too high when we were at 4-2 and had beaten some pretty good teams. That being said, I think I was most disappointed that the defense seems to have regressed the last two games. I would still have preferred a winning record at this point, and will be bitterly disappointed if we don't finish at 9-7 or better... I'm not unhappy, per se, with 4-4. But we can still be better, and that is where I expect this team to go in the second half of the season, especially with 5 home games out of the 8 remaining.

    Anyway, good, level-headed post.
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  • In comparison with 49ers, I agree, losing for so long they were able to draft early, but just to look from another point of view, how is GB doing so well, Denver, New England all of these teams that never fell below to draft early. I think our draft picks before Pete and John needs to be a factor, as we see draft picks early may not always mean you get top talent.
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  • I think we can all agree that the 49ers offense is at best mediocre, the core of the team is the defense. The players on defense were obtained as follows:

    SS Donte Whitner: FA
    FS Dashon Goldson: 4th round 2007
    CB Carlos Rogers: FA
    CB Tarrell Brown: 5th round 2007
    ILB Patrick Willis 1st round 2007
    ILB NaVorro Bowman: 3rd round 2010
    OLB Ahmad Brooks: FA
    OLB Aldon Smith 1st round 2011
    DT Ray McDonald: 3rd round 2007
    DT Sopoaga: 4th round 2004
    DT Justin Smith: FA

    Noteworthy subs:
    CB Chris Culliver: 3rd round 2011
    OLB Larry Grant: 7'th round 2008
    DT Rickey Jean Francoi 7'th round 2009 (backup DT/DE)

    So it's mostly 3'rd and 4'th rounders, Free Agents, and two rather exceptional 1st round picks. Most of the 1st round picks were used on offense, which really hasn't worked out. So I'm not sure I'm buying into this whole 'decade of suckage resulted in top-5 team' thing (technically, it's more like 6 years of suckage, as far as players on the current roster). And from the Seahawks point of view, I can't condone using past success as a reason for current failure. Lots of teams, like the Pats, Steelers, NYG seem to keep it going year after year.
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  • Why do we have so many 49ers fans posting on here in the middle of the night, feeling the need to respond to every mention of their team? Really weird how close so many of them pay attention to this site.
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  • Hawkadeus wrote:Why do we have so many 49ers fans posting on here in the middle of the night, feeling the need to respond to every mention of their team? Really weird how close so many of them pay attention to this site.


    Interesting approach. Don't attack the argument, which is clearly irrefutable, attack the poster with hyperbole. Well played, Sir, well played!
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  • 49er, I understand your point, my honest question is what number in the draft were a lot of those 3 and 4 th rounders taken? Picking 3rd in the 4th round for years on end will tend to let a team hit on there picks with higher frequency, not to take anything away from the 9ers defensive drafting, it has been impeccable, which is a lot easier when you are at the top of each round.
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  • 49fansince70 wrote:
    Hawkadeus wrote:Why do we have so many 49ers fans posting on here in the middle of the night, feeling the need to respond to every mention of their team? Really weird how close so many of them pay attention to this site.


    Interesting approach. Don't attack the argument, which is clearly irrefutable, attack the poster with hyperbole. Well played, Sir, well played!


    I could care less about your point. Sorry, Charlie. I was commenting on the fact that I read 3 different 49er fan posts in a course of 5 minutes all made by different posters in the middle olf the night on a week when we dont play your team. It's just strange how many of you monitor our site. And comical how you guys make your presence known in weeks after wins, but very less so after losses. ;)
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  • FlyingGreg wrote:But here we are...looking at 10-6/11-5 if some things go REALLY well but certainly 9-7 at the least, I would suspect. Considering all of the above factors, is that a travesty? A lot of people want to contrast us with the 49ers, but we are not on the same point of the rebuild arc as San Francisco is. The 49ers are loaded with upper-level talent because they were bad for a long time and collected a lot of top draft picks that enabled them to draft the cornerstones of their team. The Seahawks, however, are usually in that middle-of-the-road status and have not had the same ability to ascend as quickly (IMO). This by know means is meant to take a shot at the 49ers - I give them credit for building that team, but let's be fair - they have had a LOT of ammunition to do it. The decade of poor performance before Harbaugh arrived was fertile ground for them to acquire the likes of Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith.

    Just wondering aloud, boys and girls...fire away.


    Great post, Greg. And one other thing should be noted. We haven't had the same access to top draft picks as the 49ers have over the years, but even absent that fact, we have to recognize that we had a stretch where the drafts just turned out terribly. Sure, they might have looked okay on first glance, but there was a lot of drop-off. Holmgren's drafts continually left our defense struggling. Ruskell landed us Tatupu and Hill early on, and that seemed to buy him a lot of rope from fans (myself included). But after that first draft, there were a TON of picks that never really panned out (especially in the 1st round). So when Carroll and company took over, that was one bare cupboard they inherited.

    And that seems to be a wrinkle that gets glossed over by people who are flabbergasted by how long the rebuild is taking. They'll point to quick turnarounds by this or that team, but fail to consider that those quick turnarounds often had to do with adding a couple of key players and/or adding new leadership. Those quick turnarounds NEVER involved the level of roster turnover and culture change that have occurred and are occurring in Seattle. Considering how young our roster is, and how Carroll and Schneider have really torn this thing down and started from scratch, the Seahawks could almost be considered an expansion club in some ways. We had some veteran leadership in 2010 help us transition into the new regime, but nearly all of it departed over the course of the next two years. Now, out of the guys on the team, only 8 pre-date Carroll/Schneider (Obomanu, Unger, Morrah, Bryant, Mebane, Hill, Tru, Ryan). It's like we've gone from a tricycle to a bike with training wheels, and now we've finally taken the training wheels off and we're starting to learn how to really ride. Racing comes next (yeah, I know, weird metaphor, but it's early).
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  • 49fansince70 wrote:I think we can all agree that the 49ers offense is at best mediocre, the core of the team is the defense. The players on defense were obtained as follows:

    SS Donte Whitner: FA
    FS Dashon Goldson: 4th round 2007
    CB Carlos Rogers: FA
    CB Tarrell Brown: 5th round 2007
    ILB Patrick Willis 1st round 2007
    ILB NaVorro Bowman: 3rd round 2010
    OLB Ahmad Brooks: FA
    OLB Aldon Smith 1st round 2011
    DT Ray McDonald: 3rd round 2007
    DT Sopoaga: 4th round 2004
    DT Justin Smith: FA

    Noteworthy subs:
    CB Chris Culliver: 3rd round 2011
    OLB Larry Grant: 7'th round 2008
    DT Rickey Jean Francoi 7'th round 2009 (backup DT/DE)

    So it's mostly 3'rd and 4'th rounders, Free Agents, and two rather exceptional 1st round picks. Most of the 1st round picks were used on offense, which really hasn't worked out. So I'm not sure I'm buying into this whole 'decade of suckage resulted in top-5 team' thing (technically, it's more like 6 years of suckage, as far as players on the current roster). And from the Seahawks point of view, I can't condone using past success as a reason for current failure. Lots of teams, like the Pats, Steelers, NYG seem to keep it going year after year.


    No, you don't get to leave out Alex Smith (1st overall pick), Vernon Davis (6th overall pick) and Michael Crabtree (10th overall pick) just because it waters down your argument. That's exactly the point - the Seahawks rarely draft in the top-10 overall, and we have NEVER had a #1 overall pick.

    And this is why I said "this by know means is meant to take a shot at the 49ers - I give them credit for building that team". But the facts are the facts, twist them as you will - the 49ers have been much worse overall since 2002 (including a 2-14 record, a 4-12 record, and a 5-11 record) than the Seahawks and the result was it put themselves in the position to draft the cornerstones. It's funny that 49ers fans want to jump up and down with how good your team is now but you ignore how you were able to build it -- by being bad.

    FYI, this is a thread about the Seahawks and not the 49ers.
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  • Great post, Greg! That kind of perspective DOES help. Sunday's loss really ached for a little while.

    I can see the light at the end of the tunnel of this rebuild, and it's approaching fast.

    --I love seeing RW improve each week, and I feel GOOD with him at the helm.

    --I love having a tough, physical team that can actually intimidate opponents. In particular, when our DBs get a lick on the opponent's WR's or TE's early in a game, it actually sets up the 'hearing footsteps' incompletions in the following quarters.

    --Penalties have gone way down lately...especially the STUPID ones. These guys can be taught.

    --RW learns from his mistakes. Hopefully the coaching staff can too and continue to tighten up weak areas and explore other approaches to problematical situations (3rd and long on defense, and 3rd and anything on offense).


    I don't feel there is 'wait till next year'. I feel like good things are happening this year, with some good progress and a legit shot at playoff contention. I also feel that next year it's safe to expect playoff contention with a legit shot at the Super Bowl, based on how this team is tracking and how well drafts are going with JS/PC.
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  • Great post Greg.

    Though I'm getting a weird sense of a deja vu. It's almost like I've seen all these points made before...
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  • Great post Greg (x2 including response to whiner trolls).

    Only think I would add is I do not think the defense has regressed, as someone else mentioned, as much as opposing O coordinators have identified a "chink in the armour" so to speak. The last couple weeks teams have found that soft underbelly of ours to work and we seem to be having trouble plugging the hole. I hope the coaches figure it out soon and/or the players improve in that area soon. Worst case I guess would be get it fixed in offseason via draft/fa but I pray they can shore it up much sooner or could be a really long season.

    I think the issue lies in the youth/inexperience of our LBers but the coaches may need to figure some other way/scheme to help them for awhile. I also think we could use more help/depth in our pass rush (esp the middle) but that will probably have to wait for the offseason.

    I agree 100% with your assessment regarding the WR's. I think they have done all they could to "bandaid" the position while building the rest of the team and that this year we will be snagging playmakers via draft.
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  • 49fansince70 wrote:
    Hawkadeus wrote:Why do we have so many 49ers fans posting on here in the middle of the night, feeling the need to respond to every mention of their team? Really weird how close so many of them pay attention to this site.


    Interesting approach. Don't attack the argument, which is clearly irrefutable, attack the poster with hyperbole. Well played, Sir, well played!


    He's right. This is a Seahawks forum and that's who we are here to talk about. Go somewhere else to talk about your team instead of bringing them up in threads that have nothing to do with them.
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  • Some things to remember: This team was built to compete at the Clink.

    Winning on the road in the NFL is hard no matter what and we still have a young team that doesn't seem to know how to bring the same energy on the road, especially on D.

    The magic number is 10-6. I doubt we're going to catch San Fran, so honestly, we want them to keep beating NFC teams to help with our Wild Card chances.

    Let's hope the learning curve accelerates and we can get on a roll heading into the playoffs. I think we could be a very tough team to beat, especially if we play outdoor playoff games.
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