Stacking Up-Comparing Russell Wilson to the Other Rookie QBs

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  • I was just thumbing through some of the statistics and just found it interesting to look at Wilson vs. the other rookie QB's of this year's class (Sorted by how they rank in terms of QB Rating) ...

    (7th in NFL) Robert Griffin III ... 149 comp ... 223 att (66.8 Comp%) ... 1,778 yds ... 8 TD ... 3 INT ... 97.3 QB Rating

    (20th in NFL) Russell Wilson ... 129 comp ... 210 att (61.4 Comp%) ... 1,466 yds ... 10 TD ... 8 INT ... 82.4 QB Rating

    (27th in NFL) Ryan Tannehill ... 120 comp ... 203 att (59.1 Comp%) ... 1,472 yds ... 4 TD ... 6 INT ... 75.8 QB Rating

    (29th in NFL) Andrew Luck ... 160 comp ... 288 att (55.6 Comp%) ... 1,971 yds ... 8 TD ... 8 INT ... 74.6 QB Rating

    (31st in NFL) Brandon Weeden ... 165 comp ... 299 att (55.2 Comp%) ... 1,912 yds ... 9 TD ...10 INT ...70.8 QB Rating

    So Russell Wilson is having a statistically better year than any of the other rookie QB's outside of RGIII. Now I realize that's a bit of an Apples to Oranges comparison given the very different situations that each of these QB's has. I just found it interesting to note that Wilson is basically on par with those guys (and of course, getting better).
    Last edited by Hawkscanner on Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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  • I'm very impressed with RGIII and have been since his college days (even more so than with Luck). That said, Shanahan has given that dude a lot more latitude to make things happen when compared with the watered-down situation Russ has been in...and none of our WRs is as sure-handed as Santana Moss. Considering the above, what Russ has managed to do is actually quite impressive for a rook. None of the rooks are actually looking 'bad' at this stage in their development. Something looks goofy about how they figure the QB Rating if Tannehill is anything but last (4 TD...6 INT). Looks like completion percentage is more heavily weighted than TD/INT ratio.
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  • HawKnPeppa wrote:I'm very impressed with RGIII and have been since his college days (even more so than with Luck). That said, Shanahan has given that dude a lot more latitude to make things happen when compared with the watered-down situation Russ has been in...and none of our WRs is as sure-handed as Santana Moss. Considering the above, what Russ has managed to do is actually quite impressive for a rook. None of the rooks are actually looking 'bad' at this stage in their development. Something looks goofy about how they figure the QB Rating if Tannehill is anything but last (4 TD...6 INT). Looks like completion percentage is more heavily weighted than TD/INT ratio.



    Yeah QB rating is bullshit.

    And Santana Moss, sure handed? :lol: Yeah whatever.
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  • WOW...nice work.
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  • Hey, look at all those guys with double-digit touchdown passes!

    Seriously, RGIII with 8/3 is damn impressive. That simply does not happen with rookie quarterbacks. Hell, positive turnover ratios don't happen often with rookie quarterbacks. Looks like we got ourselves a keeper, alright!
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  • Seahawk Sailor wrote:Hey, look at all those guys with double-digit touchdown passes!

    Seriously, RGIII with 8/3 is damn impressive. That simply does not happen with rookie quarterbacks. Hell, positive turnover ratios don't happen often with rookie quarterbacks. Looks like we got ourselves a keeper, alright!



    He is leading rookie QB's in TD passes as well. Is he still a ROY possibility?
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  • Their QB Rating can be a headscratcher sometimes IMO. Look at these two:

    (27th in NFL) Ryan Tannehill ... 120 comp ... 203 att (59.1 Comp%) ... 1,472 yds ... 4 TD ... 6 INT ... 75.8 QB Rating

    (29th in NFL) Andrew Luck ... 160 comp ... 288 att (55.6 Comp%) ... 1,971 yds ... 8 TD ... 8 INT ... 74.6 QB Rating

    Tennehill avg's an INT every 34 att's and a TD every 51 att's. and 7.3 ypa

    Luck avg's an INT every 36 att's and a TD every 36 att's. and 6.8 ypa

    Yet that 3.5 better completion % gives Tannehil a better rating? Prorated out to Luck's att's Tannehill completes 10 more passesc and he'd have passed for 117 more yards. So the ypa is obviously carrying more weight than the TD's per att. because prorated out completely Tannehill looks like this:

    prorated Tannehil: 170 comp...288 att (59.1 comp%)...2088 yds...5 TD...8 INT

    Three extra TD's should be worth more than 10 more completions and 117 more yards.
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  • SalishHawkFan wrote:Their QB Rating can be a headscratcher sometimes IMO. Look at these two:

    (27th in NFL) Ryan Tannehill ... 120 comp ... 203 att (59.1 Comp%) ... 1,472 yds ... 4 TD ... 6 INT ... 75.8 QB Rating

    (29th in NFL) Andrew Luck ... 160 comp ... 288 att (55.6 Comp%) ... 1,971 yds ... 8 TD ... 8 INT ... 74.6 QB Rating

    Tennehill avg's an INT every 34 att's and a TD every 51 att's. and 7.3 ypa

    Luck avg's an INT every 36 att's and a TD every 36 att's. and 6.8 ypa

    Yet that 3.5 better completion % gives Tannehil a better rating? Prorated out to Luck's att's Tannehill completes 10 more passesc and he'd have passed for 117 more yards. So the ypa is obviously carrying more weight than the TD's per att. because prorated out completely Tannehill looks like this:

    prorated Tannehil: 170 comp...288 att (59.1 comp%)...2088 yds...5 TD...8 INT

    Three extra TD's should be worth more than 10 more completions and 117 more yards.


    You would think that, but historically YPA does have a lot to do with a QB's success. YPA=first downs. A YPA over 7 is historically a very good thing.

    The way the rating system over values completion percentage is misleading though. ESPN's QBR is much better because it has a "clutch" factor, but it isn't gaining much use yet.
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  • Thought that was ESPN's QBR, but I see now that it's not. It's not getting much traction because they don't display it on the players main stat line. You've got to dig it up individually for each QB. What a pain!!! Here's their QBR, it's a LOT different:

    Luck: 72.2
    RG3: 70.9
    Tannehill: 53.4
    Wilson: 53.0
    Weeden: 19.5

    Now decipher that.
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  • SalishHawkFan wrote:Thought that was ESPN's QBR, but I see now that it's not. It's not getting much traction because they don't display it on the players main stat line. You've got to dig it up individually for each QB. What a pain!!! Here's their QBR, it's a LOT different:

    Luck: 72.2
    RG3: 70.9
    Tannehill: 53.4
    Wilson: 53.0
    Weeden: 19.5

    Now decipher that.

    The third down conversion numbers are dragging Wilson down in that set. As they should.
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  • Football Outsiders QB Rankings through Week 8: Rookies

    R.Griffin (WAS): 199 DYAR, ranked 13th
    A.Luck (IND): 148 DYAR, ranked 14th
    R.Wilson (SEA): 110 DYAR, ranked 17th
    R.Tannehill (MIA): 85 DYAR, ranked 18th
    B.Weeden (CLE): -257 DYAR, ranked 33rd
    Last edited by volsunghawk on Tue Oct 30, 2012 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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  • SalishHawkFan wrote:Thought that was ESPN's QBR, but I see now that it's not. It's not getting much traction because they don't display it on the players main stat line. You've got to dig it up individually for each QB. What a pain!!! Here's their QBR, it's a LOT different:

    Luck: 72.2
    RG3: 70.9
    Tannehill: 53.4
    Wilson: 53.0
    Weeden: 19.5

    Now decipher that.


    That's probably fair. Although I'd wager if you look at the last four games, even at 2-2 W/L record, Wilson's numbers would look a lot better. And that shows he's improving as the year goes on.
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  • hawksfan515 wrote:He is leading rookie QB's in TD passes as well. Is he still a ROY possibility?


    If he continues to improve at the rate he is improving, I'd say so.

    Of the 8 games we've played, 3 have been road games at divisional rivals with stout defenses (historically the toughest games) - Wilson has put up a 47.6 average QB rating.
    In the remaining 5 games he's averaged a QBR of 104.3.

    He could be able to pull his QBR up to 90+ before season's end if he kept that up (with the three divisional games at home), which, if done would be 3rd all time behind Ben Roethlisberger and Dan Marino for rookie QBs. For the record, their ratings were 98.1 and 96.0
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  • I am still wondering about the guy who was basically dishing out death threats for any of us who questioned Weeden pre and post draft. Who was that? Did he disappear? I remember him saying Weeden's age didn't matter, because he'd be playing like an all pro from game 1. I sort of laughed the whole thing off and just stopped participating in the conversation, but now I'd like to hear his reasoning for why Weeden has struggled so much and what he foresees for the rest of his career. For all I know, he could turn out to be half-decent. I just was saying that at his age he'd have to be really good from day 1 to justify drafting him, and that I didn't think Cleveland was the place to do it. I also stated and still do state that I am an OSU fan. My mentee (a college student that I mentored via an online teaching program) attended OSU and I've followed them pretty closely since we met back in 2001. She was a trainer for the football team and an education student. Her husband is from Colorado and is a big Buffaloes fan, so we all still have good talks about football in the western states. I get tons of info on the Colorado and Oklahoma schools from them. It's good to share, as they are both really knowledgeable about football and she was a DI athlete. She loved Weeden, but didn't feel that he'd come in and play well unless he was drafted by a team like the Patriots or Giants and was inserted into the starting lineup from day 1 due to an injury to Brady or Manning in preseason. I'm starting to agree.

    Wilson and RG3 are both on pretty good teams, and they are showing that they can play well and can do so in good situations. Tannehill is my surprise.
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  • hawksfan515 wrote:
    Seahawk Sailor wrote:Hey, look at all those guys with double-digit touchdown passes!

    Seriously, RGIII with 8/3 is damn impressive. That simply does not happen with rookie quarterbacks. Hell, positive turnover ratios don't happen often with rookie quarterbacks. Looks like we got ourselves a keeper, alright!



    He is leading rookie QB's in TD passes as well. Is he still a ROY possibility?


    I'm sure it would be if he played for the Giants or Cowboys. ;)

    We'll see how things end up. If we end up in the playoffs and his numbers only get better, he's got a shot at OROY.
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  • Andrew Luck would get ROY if the voting was today, simply because the Colts are 4-3 and would currently make the playoffs. Voters think that he has much less talent surrounding him and that a successful season is mainly due to him alone, while the perception of Seattle is that we are a defensive team first and Wilson is a contributor.

    If the Colts slide in the second half of the season and RGIII continues his statistical dominance, then he will probably get the offensive ROY instead.

    Chandler Jones seems to have defensive ROY locked up; if such a thing is possible halfway through the season.
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  • Scottemojo wrote:ESPN's QBR is much better because it has a "clutch" factor, but it isn't gaining much use yet.

    I actually dislike the QBR system because it overvalues those "clutch" situations. It gives too much weight to the 4th quarter when the sample size is smaller and game plans are more situational. The DYAR numbers that Volsung listed a few posts above are better for accounting for down and distance, but not being so biased by late-game situations.

    A few other numbers comparing Wilson to the other rookies:

    ANY/A:
    5. Griffin 7.1
    22. Wilson 5.4
    23. Tannehill 5.4
    25. Luck 5.4
    30. Weeden 5.0

    Y/A:
    3. Griffin 8.0
    16. Tannehill 7.3
    21. Wilson 7.0
    23. Luck 6.8
    31. Weeden 6.4

    And to anyone who denies that the WRs are hurting Wilson, take a look at ANS's Air Yards page:

    AirYPA:
    4. Luck 4.9
    5. Wilson 4.9
    18. Griffin 4.1
    19. Tannehill 4.1
    32. Weeden 3.0

    YAC% (% of QB's yards after catch, sorted by smallest)
    2. Luck 28.9%
    3. Wilson 29.7%
    21. Tannehill 43.1%
    28. Griffin 48.9%
    31. Weeden 53.0%
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  • Low yardage after the catch doesn't mean that the WR's are hurting Wilson. YAC are a result of many things including scheming and the throw by the qb. I love what RW is doing but I think this is a flawed way of using this stat for him.

    If we had more slants across the middle the YAC would go up. If he threw it to players in the stride YAC goes up. If you complete it across the middle to a guy that gets slammed the second he catches the ball the YAC goes down but the WR is not at fault. QB / Scheme / situation could lead to that decision......

    Also if you throw every long ball to the 2 yard line there isn't much YAC to get after that :)
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  • mikeak wrote:YAC are a result of many things including scheming and the throw by the qb.

    That's true, but it also has a lot to do with the WRs. Not just the WR catching the ball, but also the ones blocking downfield. RG3 gets a lot of yards on WR screens that inflate his Y/A numbers. It seems that every WR screen the Seahawks run is stuffed immediately, and that's on the WRs more than Wilson.

    Also, receivers who get more separation generally gain more YAC. QBs can negate that by underthrowing the WR and giving the defense more time to catch up, but underthrows haven't been a problem at all for Wilson.
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  • Hawkscanner wrote:I was just thumbing through some of the statistics and just found it interesting to look at Wilson vs. the other rookie QB's of this year's class (Sorted by how they rank in terms of QB Rating) ...

    (7th in NFL) Robert Griffin III ... 149 comp ... 223 att (66.8 Comp%) ... 1,778 yds ... 8 TD ... 3 INT ... 97.3 QB Rating

    (20th in NFL) Russell Wilson ... 129 comp ... 210 att (61.4 Comp%) ... 1,466 yds ... 10 TD ... 8 INT ... 82.4 QB Rating

    (27th in NFL) Ryan Tannehill ... 120 comp ... 203 att (59.1 Comp%) ... 1,472 yds ... 4 TD ... 6 INT ... 75.8 QB Rating

    (29th in NFL) Andrew Luck ... 160 comp ... 288 att (55.6 Comp%) ... 1,971 yds ... 8 TD ... 8 INT ... 74.6 QB Rating

    (31st in NFL) Brandon Weeden ... 165 comp ... 299 att (55.2 Comp%) ... 1,912 yds ... 9 TD ...10 INT ...70.8 QB Rating

    So Russell Wilson is having a statistically better year than any of the other rookie QB's outside of RGIII. Now I realize that's a bit of an Apples to Oranges comparison given the very different situations that each of these QB's has. I just found it interesting to note that Wilson is basically on par with those guys (and of course, getting better).


    Nice, I said earlier Wilson will need to be at least top 20 this year, for us to have any chance at the playoffs. Looks like he just hit that bar and should only go up from here.
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  • All this stat talk. Stats and $4 will get you a cup of coffee anywhere but Seattle!

    all this stat talk is most certainly helping us get wins. I'd wager if we didn't have all these stats to help us we'd be 0-8.

    :sarcasm_off:
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