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 Post subject: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:56 pm 
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I really don't want to be writing this, so it's probably going to be less long this time.

-Russell Wilson has now played three good games in a row, based on the eyeball test anyway. He now looks just like Wisconsin Badger Russell Wilson, which is great news. The only bad part is that his overthrow problem from his Wisconsin days has returned as well, and it was probably the difference in the game.

-The Lions looked an awful lot like the 2011 version today. Matt Stafford had a GREAT game, maybe the best game of any QB we've faced this year. He carried the team on his back. I'd feel bad about losing to the 2012 Lions, but today felt like losing to a playoff team on the road. It still hurt, but it was a game we expected to lose before the year when we expected the Lions to play at this level.

-The Seahawks defense failed to force even one field goal attempt, although they did get a nice interception from Earl Thomas.

-Our defense looked Holmgren-era like today. Soft coverage, middling pass rush, so-so run defense. And on third down? Has there ever been a better defense in history that's been worse on 3rd and long?

-What's most infuriating about the 3rd down problem this year is that so many of these conversions are caught shy of the first down marker and they pick it up anyway. When our team completes a pass 3 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, we're punting 80% of the time. But not the bad guys. Sheesh. It's gone on too long now to think "small sample size" or "fluke". There is a fatal flaw in this defense. I hope Pete figures it out this offseason if not sooner.

-Detroit was 12/16 (75%) on 3rd down. Three of their four touchdowns were on 3rd downs.

-Sadly, I have a hunch this game probably keeps us out of the playoffs. Gut feeling. Seattle would need to go 6-2 the rest of the way to hit 10-6. That's really tough to do, and even if they did it, 10-6 could easily miss the playoffs in the NFC this year.


Last edited by kearly on Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:58 pm 
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kearly wrote:

-What's most infuriating about the 3rd down problem this year is that so many of these conversions are caught shy of the first down marker and they pick it up anyway. When our team completes a pass 3 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, we're punting 80% of the time.


I havnt noticed that as a season long theme but i most definatly noticed it today. Very frustrating to watch.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:00 pm 
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It happened a lot in the Patriots and Green Bay games as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:03 pm 
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JSeahawks wrote:
kearly wrote:
-What's most infuriating about the 3rd down problem this year is that so many of these conversions are caught shy of the first down marker and they pick it up anyway. When our team completes a pass 3 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, we're punting 80% of the time.

I havnt noticed that as a season long theme but i most definatly noticed it today. Very frustrating to watch.

I have noticed it quite a bit throughout the season. :evil:

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:04 pm 
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kearly wrote:
-What's most infuriating about the 3rd down problem this year is that so many of these conversions are caught shy of the first down marker and they pick it up anyway. When our team completes a pass 3 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, we're punting 80% of the time. But not the bad guys. Sheesh. It's gone on too long now to think "small sample size" or "fluke". There is a fatal flaw in this defense. I hope Pete figures it out this offseason if not sooner.



This is not long enough to qualify for an official Random thoughts post Kearly.....perhaps a Few Random Thoughts, or Random Thoughts-Mini edition. Looking forward to some additional commentary as I always look forward to RT's.

Great point though. I too have noticed a lot of first downs after the catch, not just in this game but in many. I agree that we have a trend on third down, not just an anomaly. It needs to be addressed. Statistically speaking, the standard deviation is crazy. It's not like teams who convert 35% of third downs convert 40-45% against us. They go up 50-100% when they play us.


Last edited by rjdriver on Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:05 pm 
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JSeahawks wrote:
kearly wrote:

-What's most infuriating about the 3rd down problem this year is that so many of these conversions are caught shy of the first down marker and they pick it up anyway. When our team completes a pass 3 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, we're punting 80% of the time.


I havnt noticed that as a season long theme but i most definatly noticed it today. Very frustrating to watch.


I have - kearly is spot on.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:07 pm 
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Weak weak weak effort.............You had the opportunity to retake the longest thread title and you just gave up and let it slip away. Pathetic effort............JK

I really like the continual progression/improvement of RW and our O. I feel like opposing OC's have figured a little something something out about our tough D and are exploiting it. I hope we can fix it this year but could be we need a few more pieces here and there as well as more experience to get there.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:08 pm 
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FlyingGreg wrote:
JSeahawks wrote:
kearly wrote:

-What's most infuriating about the 3rd down problem this year is that so many of these conversions are caught shy of the first down marker and they pick it up anyway. When our team completes a pass 3 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, we're punting 80% of the time.


I havnt noticed that as a season long theme but i most definatly noticed it today. Very frustrating to watch.


I have - kearly is spot on.


Yea, he usually is. I wasnt arguiing with him, just saying i didnt notice it as much as i did today. So, the question is, whats the answer? If we're giving up completions short of the first down marker and then allowing yards after the catch that seems like a linebacker problem to me. Is it a result of having a rookie middle linebacker?

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:08 pm 
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JSeahawks wrote:
kearly wrote:

-What's most infuriating about the 3rd down problem this year is that so many of these conversions are caught shy of the first down marker and they pick it up anyway. When our team completes a pass 3 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, we're punting 80% of the time.


I havnt noticed that as a season long theme but i most definatly noticed it today. Very frustrating to watch.

It's happened enough for Pete to address it in his press conference after the Rams loss.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:11 pm 
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Tampa 2 is useful, but we do it far too much and teams are attacking what they're expecting, which is the Tampa 2. The difference between a standard cover 2 and a Tampa 2 is the depth of the zone drop of the MLB. Other than that they're the same. Safeties have deep half and the corners have the flat while also covering back to the 10 yard area on the sideline. OLBs are stressed more in the short zones in the Tampa 2 and teams have been eating away at that making our OLBs choose between the various out and in patterns by TEs, slot, and backs. They're crossing it up a lot. TE will run an out and they'll run a HB or FB angle underneath or have the TE cross the face of a LB in a cross or in pattern and sneak the HB outside. Slot WRs are obviously getting into the action too. Teams have been sending a guy in the deep seam and running Wagner off deep and beating us up underneath. Classic way to attack the TAMPA 2. They're also getting into that area between the safety and CB along the sideline. Again, stressing the CB to make a choice to come up shallow or get deeper. A good example of this would be some of our red zone D. On the one touchdown Browner wasn't going to let Megatron get behind him and left the other WR in the flat. He was too late and it was a TD. FF a couple quarters and you have Sherman in that scenario on the other side of the field. Sherman let Megatron get behind him because he also has to worry about the receiver in the flat. Sherman took the shallow part of the zone and the safety didn't get over. Classic way to attack the cover 2 AND tampa 2. Luckly Megatron dropped the TD.

These things aren't that complicated and we're not adjusting. We're not mixing up our coverages near enough and teams are figuring out what they can attack. No one is attacking a particular player on our D. They're attacking our predictable design.

Either Gus or Pete REALLY needs to step it up. Not sure who, be need better diversity and better mixture.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:11 pm 
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We are not a "playoff" team. But neither was the 2010 team at 7-9.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:31 pm 
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Troy Aikman just stated, "The coverage I'm talking about is a two safeties deep and man coverage underneath. It's a hard coverage to complete passes against."

You can call it 2 man under or cover 2 man and probably a couple other things. Just happens to be my personal favorite, but even still....you've got to mix your coverages on a regular basis.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:32 pm 
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BlueTalon wrote:
JSeahawks wrote:
kearly wrote:
-What's most infuriating about the 3rd down problem this year is that so many of these conversions are caught shy of the first down marker and they pick it up anyway. When our team completes a pass 3 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, we're punting 80% of the time.

I havnt noticed that as a season long theme but i most definatly noticed it today. Very frustrating to watch.

I have noticed it quite a bit throughout the season. :evil:

I don't think our receivers have broken a tackle all year.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:33 pm 
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Yea, he usually is. I wasnt arguiing with him, just saying i didnt notice it as much as i did today. So, the question is, whats the answer? If we're giving up completions short of the first down marker and then allowing yards after the catch that seems like a linebacker problem to me. Is it a result of having a rookie middle linebacker?


Coordinators are taking advantage of us...instead of trying to beat us deep, they are taking the plays that are just enough to move the chains.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:42 pm 
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It seems we have a "soft underbelly" over the middle. Has Bradley ever been able to adjust to it so far?....negatory.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:43 pm 
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I don't think our receivers have broken a tackle all year.


No joke...where is the YAC???

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:04 pm 
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Tate's probably our best guy in that regards. He's broken a few.

I just hate watching teams complete 5 yard passes on us, then their WRs go the extra 8-10 yards for the first down.

Agreed Kearly......I can't remember a good defense ever giving up this poor of a 3rd down conversion percentage.

I also agree that this is probably the loss that costs us a playoff trip. We're going to have to win every game at home, and win on the road agasint Miami, Chicago, and Buffalo. Buffalo is the most winnable game, but I have doubts about us winning any road games until I can see a complete game on the road, from all the squads.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:14 pm 
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The Rice overthrow/interception was due to a mis-communication. Rice raised his hand to say "I'm open". Wilson thought he was signaling that he was going long. The first Rice overthrown/missed TD, not sure who was at fault. Sydney has to catch that.

In the end, it is a team loss. No one can point fingers. Just not the elite level all want us to be. Still have 8-games to go to see if the playoffs are possible or at least a winning season. If I was a neutral observer, the game was very entertaining and the Lions won a game they were desperate to win. They could not be denied. That is the problem with looking at records without a bigger picture.

What a lost opportunity. Congrats to Lions and on to the next one for me.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:15 pm 
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Why is this the loss that costs us the playoffs?? We have had 3 other losses that were within victory's grasp. They were all met mostly with passivity and excuses by our fanbase-why should this one be any different?

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:36 pm 
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There's a hard bottom line here. This team is what standing is; 4-4/.500/average. We've had chances to surpass that and have not.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:51 pm 
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bestfightstory wrote:
Why is this the loss that costs us the playoffs?? We have had 3 other losses that were within victory's grasp. They were all met mostly with passivity and excuses by our fanbase-why should this one be any different?



Not sure leif but my thoughts would be that in any season there are more than one games that could/would cost a team making the playoffs.

I imagine we have used up several of those types of games. But if the team caught fire next week and won out we'd make the playoffs for sure rendering anything that has happened up to this point superflous.

I know this will surprise you but there are some here that frequently see only the down side.

:roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:57 pm 
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That's true. Teams do get hot at the right time and even win the SB. No reason to think we can't make the playoffs.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 4:03 pm 
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I saw two things today: Russell Wilson has improved dramatically as the season progressed and is definitely our QBOTF. The Seahawks defense has been exposed. Every OC in the NFL knows how to beat us now.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 4:11 pm 
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Today sucked. Wish I didn't watch. I would rather go to McDonalds, eat a double quarter pounder with 20 McNuggets, throw it all up, and the eat it again.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 4:15 pm 
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kearly wrote:
I really don't want to be writing this, so it's probably going to be less long this time.

-Russell Wilson has now played three good games in a row, based on the eyeball test anyway. He now looks just like Wisconsin Badger Russell Wilson, which is great news. The only bad part is that his overthrow problem from his Wisconsin days has returned as well, and it was probably the difference in the game.

-The Lions looked an awful lot like the 2011 version today. Matt Stafford had a GREAT game, maybe the best game of any QB we've faced this year. He carried the team on his back. I'd feel bad about losing to the 2012 Lions, but today felt like losing to a playoff team on the road. It still hurt, but it was a game we expected to lose before the year when we expected the Lions to play at this level.

-The Seahawks defense failed to force even one field goal attempt, although they did get a nice interception from Earl Thomas.

-Our defense looked Holmgren-era like today. Soft coverage, middling pass rush, so-so run defense. And on third down? Has there ever been a better defense in history that's been worse on 3rd and long?

-What's most infuriating about the 3rd down problem this year is that so many of these conversions are caught shy of the first down marker and they pick it up anyway. When our team completes a pass 3 yards short of the sticks on 3rd down, we're punting 80% of the time. But not the bad guys. Sheesh. It's gone on too long now to think "small sample size" or "fluke". There is a fatal flaw in this defense. I hope Pete figures it out this offseason if not sooner.

-Detroit was 12/16 (75%) on 3rd down. Three of their four touchdowns were on 3rd downs.

-Sadly, I have a hunch this game probably keeps us out of the playoffs. Gut feeling. Seattle would need to go 6-2 the rest of the way to hit 10-6. That's really tough to do, and even if they did it, 10-6 could easily miss the playoffs in the NFC this year.

Thanks Kearly, this three and outs by us, and not our opponents is something that I have gripeing about to my wife (like she can fix it),,hell, come to think of it, she couldn't do any worse.
I don't doubt that that is why we lost this and some of the other games this Season.
I think the worse thing about all those misfires, is that there doesn't seem to be an answer by the Coaching staff to rectify the problem, and that sux, because I keep hopeing to see a big turnaround, each week that I tune into the games.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:46 pm 
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SalishHawkFan wrote:
I saw two things today: Russell Wilson has improved dramatically as the season progressed and is definitely our QBOTF. The Seahawks defense has been exposed. Every OC in the NFL knows how to beat us now.

I also saw a offensive line give RW3 a lot of time to throw the ball. He is getting better each week. They'll get better and the D will figure it out. 6-2 second half book it


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Lions game
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2012 7:17 pm 
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I felt the real problem was that our OC didn't come prepared to attack and exploit the injury weaknesses on the Detroit defense, especially in the secondary.
We knew:
- Detroit was hurting in the secondary
- Detroit has a good offense that can put up some points
We didn't know:
- Detroit would mostly stuff our running game, aside from the long Lynch TD. We couldn't consistently run on the Lions.

So we were unprepared, on the coaching side, for that eventuality, and to truly take off the training wheels for Russell Wilson and LET THE KID PLAY, and beat the Lions with the passing game. If we had COMMITTED to the passing game, and essentially said, "Detroit, we're going to score on you and beat you with the pass", then the Seahawks score 30+ on that banged-up defense.

We have a QB that can play, unlike last year. The coaches need to let him do his thing and be willing to put the game in his hands when the situation requires it. Stop the game management bullshit on offense and GO SCORE. Game plan against this Lions defense = score early and often, using the pass. I say that if the offense came in prepared to pass on the Lions, and committed to scoring, and not the field-position BS, against that pass D, our O scores on 2 more drives, with RW3 working his way down the field, and we wear out their D, and then in the 4th quarter we ARE able to run on their tired defense to put away the game. This loss is a failure of the coaching staff to be ready to take advantage of the opponent's weaknesses.


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