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 Post subject: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:51 am 
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Why does everyone think we need to go out and basically abandon the run (like the rest of the league) and air it out? I have no problem being 55% Run plays and 45% Pass plays. If Wilson doesn't throw those picks in the Rams game and we don't have all those WR drops in the 49ers game we easily could have won one if not both of those games. I really don't have much of a problem with the playcalling, it's the execution. Throwing more times just increases the chances of turnovers.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:58 am 
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Who wants to abandon the run?

This is about predictability. When the Hawks lead the league by a mile in running the ball on 1st AND 2nd down, that's too predictable..........which means the defense can game plan for that and make it hard for Wilson and the offense to do anything.

All we're saying is let's mix it up and throw on 1st down once in a while so that Wilson isn't bum rushed on 3rd and five 90% of the time.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:00 am 
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I don't think "everyone " thinks we need to go out and abandon the run.

I know I think we definitely need to score more points than we have been this year.

By whatever means to that end.

I LOVE Marshawn in every conceivable way. That's right!

And it pains me to see his efforts lead to field goal attempts and narrow victories or close defeats.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:03 am 
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SuperBowlXLChamps wrote:
Why does everyone think we need to go out and basically abandon the run (like the rest of the league) and air it out? I have no problem being 55% Run plays and 45% Pass plays. If Wilson doesn't throw those picks in the Rams game and we don't have all those WR drops in the 49ers game we easily could have won one if not both of those games. I really don't have much of a problem with the playcalling, it's the execution. Throwing more times just increases the chances of turnovers.


Nobody, and I mean nobody wants to abandon the run, but when the other team puts 8 or more men in the box to stop the run, you HAVE to be able to pass the ball consistently to get them out of that scenario or else you will end up kicking lots of field goals, and getting fewer opportunities for big plays out of the running game.

What you seem to be doing, is confusing the call for a better passing attack to help the running game for people calling for more passing taking away from the running game. I'm pretty sure it's safe to say that in this forum, the huge majority of the fans believe that Lynch is a huge factor in our offense

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:08 am 
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kidhawk wrote:
SuperBowlXLChamps wrote:
Why does everyone think we need to go out and basically abandon the run (like the rest of the league) and air it out? I have no problem being 55% Run plays and 45% Pass plays. If Wilson doesn't throw those picks in the Rams game and we don't have all those WR drops in the 49ers game we easily could have won one if not both of those games. I really don't have much of a problem with the playcalling, it's the execution. Throwing more times just increases the chances of turnovers.


Nobody, and I mean nobody wants to abandon the run, but when the other team puts 8 or more men in the box to stop the run, you HAVE to be able to pass the ball consistently to get them out of that scenario or else you will end up kicking lots of field goals, and getting fewer opportunities for big plays out of the running game.

What you seem to be doing, is confusing the call for a better passing attack to help the running game for people calling for more passing taking away from the running game. I'm pretty sure it's safe to say that in this forum, the huge majority of the fans believe that Lynch is a huge factor in our offense

And I agree we have to have a better, more efficient passing attack (with less INTs, especially on the road). But I don't see the need to be pass happy like the rest of the league like some on here are calling for. 55 run/45 pass even 60 run/40 pass would be fine by me.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:17 am 
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I think they could increase Wilson's attempts by 5-8 per game and still be a balanced team (which, for the record, seems to be the idea... Carroll has never said he wants an offense that favors the run OVER the pass). And even if they did so, that would put us around middle-of-the-pack in attempts per game.

But I don't think just more attempts is the way to solve the passing game problems. I think the coaching staff needs to do a better job about the timing of the pass plays they currently run. Part of the reason that our passing game has suffered is that it's been far, far too predictable - particularly in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. When it's been scripted (in the 1st quarter) or is part of a comeback effort (in the 4th quarter), it has actually functioned relatively well. The team has to find a way to address the lull they seem to get mired in during the middle part of the game, and I think that falls on the coaching staff.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:24 am 
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SuperBowlXLChamps wrote:
But I don't see the need to be pass happy like the rest of the league like some on here are calling for. 55 run/45 pass even 60 run/40 pass would be fine by me.


I've never read anyone on here say to go "pass happy." I'm just tired of seeing run, run, incomplete pass, punt.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:24 am 
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http://seattletimes.com/html/dannyoneil ... eil24.html

97% think we need to pass more.

"If Lynch keeps getting this volume of carries, it would point to the probability that Seattle isn't throwing the ball any more often than it has these first seven games, and that would be a problem'

Why would that be a problem? If we keep winning this way will it be a problem? His explanation is terrible. What we need is a MORE EFFICIENT passing game... with say 2-3 INTs on the road instead of 7 thus far.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:29 am 
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Not sure where you are seeing people saying we need to become "pass happy". And people seem to be getting confused with the phrase "open it up".

It doesn't mean we change anything other than perhaps getting rid of the stuipid bubble screens that we try with no success every week, the tendency to run-run-pass way too often, or not ensuring our top dogs stay involved throughout the game. How in the world does Sidney Rice, who catches everything and is finally healthy, get TWO PASSES thrown his way against the 49ers???

I think most of us agree we want to convert 3rd downs, get Rice and Miller more targets, and take advantage of the quick hitters instead of always relying on the deeper stuff.

Bottom line...despite having one of the top RBs in the league, we have scored 16, 13, 16 and and 6 points in our 4 road games. That's BLECH.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:33 am 
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SuperBowlXLChamps wrote:
http://seattletimes.com/html/dannyoneil/2019505475_oneil24.html

97% think we need to pass more.

"If Lynch keeps getting this volume of carries, it would point to the probability that Seattle isn't throwing the ball any more often than it has these first seven games, and that would be a problem'

Why would that be a problem? If we keep winning this way will it be a problem? His explanation is terrible. What we need is a MORE EFFICIENT passing game... with say 2-3 INTs on the road instead of 7 thus far.


You do realize that we can pass more and still run more than we pass right? We are currently averaging more than 32 rushes per game, vs. only 25 passes per game. Two things happen when you increase passing...one, you complete drives a little faster, giving you opportunities for more drives in a game, and second it opens up the running game for bigger plays. You could easily add 15-20% more passes and still have a very balanced attack.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:38 am 
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FlyingGreg wrote:
the tendency to run-run-pass way too often,


With 13 3rd downs last week against the 49ers we did run-run-pass a total of TWO times. Is 2 out of 13 times way too often?


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:41 am 
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Passing is just more fun to watch.

It should be pass-pass-run. That would blow their minds!


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:42 am 
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Pass Happy teams win Championships.

Going back 13 Super Bowls to the 2000 Super Bowl, one balanced team has won a Super Bowl. All the rest have been "pass happy". Are you content with scraping and clawing to try to get to 10-6, only to lose to some "pass happy" team in the playoffs, or do you want to win a Super Bowl someday?

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:44 am 
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Passing wins games. Unless of course you are Blaine Gabbert.

I'm tired of playing from behind because we don't score enough points through the air and we leave the game in the hands of our defense.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:45 am 
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Tical21 wrote:
Pass Happy teams win Championships.

Going back 13 Super Bowls to the 2000 Super Bowl, one balanced team has won a Super Bowl. All the rest have been "pass happy". Are you content with scraping and clawing to try to get to 10-6, only to lose to some "pass happy" team in the playoffs, or do you want to win a Super Bowl someday?

Our team that made it to (really should have won) Super Bowl XL was very balanced... I'm fine with that.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:48 am 
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SuperBowlXLChamps wrote:
FlyingGreg wrote:
the tendency to run-run-pass way too often,


With 13 3rd downs last week against the 49ers we did run-run-pass a total of TWO times. Is 2 out of 13 times way too often?


One game ... now go back and chart through all 7 games.

So you are happy scoring no more than 16 points on the road every game?

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:52 am 
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FlyingGreg wrote:
SuperBowlXLChamps wrote:
FlyingGreg wrote:
the tendency to run-run-pass way too often,


With 13 3rd downs last week against the 49ers we did run-run-pass a total of TWO times. Is 2 out of 13 times way too often?


One game ... now go back and chart through all 7 games.

So you are happy scoring no more than 16 points on the road every game?

That has more to do with turning the ball over on the road. Take away those INTs by Wilson and we score 20+ points in the Arizona and STL games easily. More efficient is what we need.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:54 am 
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SuperBowlXLChamps wrote:
FlyingGreg wrote:
the tendency to run-run-pass way too often,


With 13 3rd downs last week against the 49ers we did run-run-pass a total of TWO times. Is 2 out of 13 times way too often?


That was just one game. Not sure where Hugh Millen gets his stats, but he said this morning on KJR that the Hawks have almost double the number of run, run, pass drives this year then the next closest team.

NFL defensive coordinators are too good to be this predictable. btw, if we were scoring 20-30 points a game, I'd be fine with any of this......but we're not, so why does Carroll and Bevell continue to do it?

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:59 am 
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That has more to do with turning the ball over on the road. Take away those INTs by Wilson and we score 20+ points in the Arizona and STL games easily. More efficient is what we need


Partly...but it also has to do with scoring TDs instead of FGs in the red zone. We've scored 3 TDs in 4 road games. That's not going to cut it.

Back to your point of "abandoning the run", that's not accurate at all - I haven't seen a single person say that.

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Last edited by FlyingGreg on Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:59 am 
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Sgt. Largent wrote:
NFL defensive coordinators are too good to be this predictable. btw, if we were scoring 20-30 points a game, I'd be fine with any of this......but we're not, so why does Carroll and Bevell continue to do it?


They do it because they are bringing along a 3rd round draft choice rookie at a pace they have designed for long term success. They are betting that we can stay competitive with our defense while getting Wilson built into the long term answer we've been waiting for. Whether that bet pays off is yet to be determined

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:59 am 
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MrCarey wrote:
Passing wins games. Unless of course you are Blaine Gabbert.

I'm tired of playing from behind because we don't score enough points through the air and we leave the game in the hands of our defense.

Just like Passing won the Rams game right?


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:05 am 
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kidhawk wrote:
Sgt. Largent wrote:
NFL defensive coordinators are too good to be this predictable. btw, if we were scoring 20-30 points a game, I'd be fine with any of this......but we're not, so why does Carroll and Bevell continue to do it?


They do it because they are bringing along a 3rd round draft choice rookie at a pace they have designed for long term success. They are betting that we can stay competitive with our defense while getting Wilson built into the long term answer we've been waiting for. Whether that bet pays off is yet to be determined


I'm not saying let's run the Patriots complicated no huddle offense with five wideouts. All I'm saying is lets be less predictable so that Wilson isn't running for his life seemingly every third down cause everyone and their mom knows we have to pass.

You can bring along a rookie QB and still pass the ball with short safe passes on 1st and/or 2nd down.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:08 am 
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Sgt. Largent wrote:
You can bring along a rookie QB and still pass the ball with short safe passes on 1st and/or 2nd down.


Agreed.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:14 am 
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Yep, and Seattle has actually looked pretty good when doing so.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:33 am 
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I'm torn on whether we should stick to the style we're playing now or to throw the ball more often early.

It seems most of our passing success on early downs has resulted because of the predictable run, run offense we run.

I don't have the time to check, but I think almost all of our big plays have come off the play action on 1st or 2nd down when the defense is predicting a run. Would throwing more often early decrease the chance to catch the defense off-guard with the play action?

On the other hand, passing early creates more first downs instead of predictable third down pass plays in a run, run, pass offense.

The overall problem with our pass game continues to be 3rd down conversions, though. Each QB has to deal with a pass-rush defense on 3rd downs, so the excuse that Wilson is put into a predictable situation is a poor one, IMO.

The problem with passing early, is that, in addition to more first downs, it also creates longer 3rd down conversions and so far, Wilson, and this offense, has not done great on 3rd downs.

Once Wilson and this offense shows he can convert 3rd and mid-distance downs, I'd be much more comfortable allowing him to throw early, with faith they can convert the 3rd and long distance that will happen more often.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:42 am 
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SuperBowlXLChamps wrote:
Why does everyone think we need to go out and basically abandon the run (like the rest of the league) and air it out? I have no problem being 55% Run plays and 45% Pass plays. If Wilson doesn't throw those picks in the Rams game and we don't have all those WR drops in the 49ers game we easily could have won one if not both of those games. I really don't have much of a problem with the playcalling, it's the execution. Throwing more times just increases the chances of turnovers.


I dunno? The run sets up the pass?--The pass sets up the run?-- You lose when you get one demensional? --You take what the Defenses give you?, Maybe all of the above :16:


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:10 pm 
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I think that when Wilson gets the green light to change out plays at the line, then we will be in a much better place,....right now there are too many missed oportunities to take advantage of what the defenses are lined up in,...may not happen this year though,...PC has his QB development plan, and I doubt he changes it,...


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:15 pm 
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Tate jump ball every down. He catches those

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:18 pm 
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Who's calling for MORE passes? Well Me.

Our running game is averaging just 4.1 yards per run. Our passing game is averaging a decent 7.0 yards per pass and 60% completion BUT we are dead last in pass attempts per game.
Let's put it in perspective: Detroit Lions are averaging a similar 7.0 yards per pass at 62% completion while Patriots are averaging 7.4 yards per pass at 65% rate. Arizona Cardinals are averaging 6.3 yards per pass and a 58% completion rate. And yet we are dead last in passing attempts per game. Without those 4th quarter pass-happy come-from-behind drives our passing attempts likely wouldn't even be averaging 20 per game.

We rank near last in the league in total offensive yards per game, points per game, as well as first downs per game.
So despite what we think is such a potent running game we are near last in the league in gaining first downs. If we get more first downs we get more attempts which means we are able to pass more while also having our usual number of running plays.

First downs do not have to come as a result of 3rd down plays which is why so many offenses have gone pass-oriented. Averaging 7 or more yards on first immediately increases your chances to convert for first downs and keep drives alive. Mix up the pass and run to keep our the defense guessing and we also improve our chances to convert first downs and touchdowns as opposed to stalling and kicking FGs.

Most of us assume that our good running game will be there for us all season long. What gets lost in this conversation is that our running game may take a hit if Lynch gets injured from our heavy reliance on straight up run plays. Sure we have Turbo but our depth and experience at half-back will be tenuous at best if we lose Lynch. Luckily Lynch has been up to task and remained healthy--hopefully til the very end.
IMO, continuing to feed and develop our passing game will only extend our running game and make the offense less predictable.

Between now and the playoffs we'll have to find our passing game and a good balance in playcalling. Hopefully we won't have to be so pass-happy at the end of games when we're behind.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:20 pm 
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Because maybe we need to score more?

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:30 pm 
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Time for Mythbusters:

Myth 1: We Run, Run, Pass.

Not true. Going back and checking out the Play by Plays for this season, we don't even run on first down as often as we pass. We Pass, Pass, Run or Pass, Run, Pass or even Run, Pass, Run far more often than we Run, Run, Pass.

Myth 2: We are a run oriented offense. Fact is, we pass more often than we run and if we opened up the passing game even more, then yes, we basically would be abandoning the run. Holmgren's offenses were more balanced than this years Hawks.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:30 pm 
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Can't score more if we can't extend drives. We've had 2 rushing TD's all season. How's that for a power running game.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:39 pm 
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SalishHawkFan wrote:
Time for Mythbusters:

Myth 1: We Run, Run, Pass.

Not true. Going back and checking out the Play by Plays for this season, we don't even run on first down as often as we pass. We Pass, Pass, Run or Pass, Run, Pass or even Run, Pass, Run far more often than we Run, Run, Pass.

Myth 2: We are a run oriented offense. Fact is, we pass more often than we run and if we opened up the passing game even more, then yes, we basically would be abandoning the run. Holmgren's offenses were more balanced than this years Hawks.


I get that we don't always Run, Run, Pass. Your claim that we Pass, Pass, Run or Pass, Run, Pass (both 66% passing playcalling) is unfounded. We currently pass at a 40% rate not 60%. We do Run, Pass, Run but rarely do I see us run on 3rd and >4.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:08 pm 
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Marshawn Lynch had the 4th most carries in the league last year (285) and has the second most this year (147, on pace for 336 for the season). He also has the most yards-after-contact of any back in the NFL.

If Seattle continues to run him as they do, he will most likely either:

a) Suffer an injury this year

-or-

b) Be ineffective next year



Seattle needs to find a passing offense, or a 2nd RB who can run as effectively as Lynch, and lighten the load.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:17 pm 
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Or have a very short career.

Doub Farrar did some study on this subject years ago and found running backs with more than 250 or so carrys a year tended to have very short NFL careers. Can't think of the kid from Texas with the huge legs that was a monster but lasted a very short time.

And the guy from KC, Christian Okouya? Another killer runner with a very short career.

We need to not run him to death, that's why I'm glad to see we have a good "second option" and/or change of pace back.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:18 pm 
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People find it easier to say all we do is run run pass than to look at the play by play in the boxscore to see whether its true or not,easier to say the playcalling sucks than to admit our players aren't executing.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:33 pm 
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Salish,

We are a run-oriented offense and No we don't pass more than we run. What you said might have held true for preseason but I wonder where you've been the last seven games.
If it helps for you to go back and review the play-by-play for all seven games for your 'mythbusters' posts then have at it. Just make sure your abacus isn't missing beads while you do so. LOL.
There are simpler ways of checking team stats.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 3:42 pm 
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Sgt. Largent wrote:
kidhawk wrote:
Sgt. Largent wrote:
NFL defensive coordinators are too good to be this predictable. btw, if we were scoring 20-30 points a game, I'd be fine with any of this......but we're not, so why does Carroll and Bevell continue to do it?


They do it because they are bringing along a 3rd round draft choice rookie at a pace they have designed for long term success. They are betting that we can stay competitive with our defense while getting Wilson built into the long term answer we've been waiting for. Whether that bet pays off is yet to be determined


I'm not saying let's run the Patriots complicated no huddle offense with five wideouts. All I'm saying is lets be less predictable so that Wilson isn't running for his life seemingly every third down cause everyone and their mom knows we have to pass.

You can bring along a rookie QB and still pass the ball with short safe passes on 1st and/or 2nd down.



I think most people can agree we need to do a better job of mixing up the play calling...similar to how we have such success doing just that in our opening drives (that set of scripted plays that most teams start games with). I wasn't really saying we should continue on this path or necessarily saying I like it, only explaining why it is that we are doing it. Personally, I think a 55% throwing to 45% passing would be a perfect balance for our offense. If our running game wasn't so good, I could see going to 60/40, but that's really as far as the separation needs to go to have a good offense IMO

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:41 pm 
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The Radish wrote:
Or have a very short career.

Doub Farrar did some study on this subject years ago and found running backs with more than 250 or so carrys a year tended to have very short NFL careers. Can't think of the kid from Texas with the huge legs that was a monster but lasted a very short time.

And the guy from KC, Christian Okouya? Another killer runner with a very short career.

We need to not run him to death, that's why I'm glad to see we have a good "second option" and/or change of pace back.


It ws 370 carries in a single season that Farrar claimed to be the magic number of when running backs fall off the cliff.

There have been several backs in the NFL that have defied this magic number though so I dont think it is a fact. Eric Dickerson, and LT are two backs that carried over 400 times during seasons and still performed the next years.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:21 pm 
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Tech Worlds wrote:
The Radish wrote:
Or have a very short career.

Doub Farrar did some study on this subject years ago and found running backs with more than 250 or so carrys a year tended to have very short NFL careers. Can't think of the kid from Texas with the huge legs that was a monster but lasted a very short time.

And the guy from KC, Christian Okouya? Another killer runner with a very short career.

We need to not run him to death, that's why I'm glad to see we have a good "second option" and/or change of pace back.


It ws 370 carries in a single season that Farrar claimed to be the magic number of when running backs fall off the cliff.

There have been several backs in the NFL that have defied this magic number though so I dont think it is a fact. Eric Dickerson, and LT are two backs that carried over 400 times during seasons and still performed the next years.


Ladanian Tomlinson never carried 400 times in a season, and only carried over 350 time once, in 2002, his second season in the league.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/i ... -tomlinson

http://www.nfl.com/player/ladainiantoml ... 78/profile


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:25 pm 
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SalishHawkFan wrote:
Time for Mythbusters:


Myth 2: We are a run oriented offense. Fact is, we pass more often than we run and if we opened up the passing game even more, then yes, we basically would be abandoning the run. Holmgren's offenses were more balanced than this years Hawks.


Time for more Mythbusters, but this time, with actual facts instead of bullcrap:

We ARE a run-oriented offense. This season, we have passed the ball 175 times and run it 227 times. That's a ratio of 43.5 pass/56.5 run.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... a/2012.htm

Last season, we had 509 passing attempts to 444 rushing attempts, resulting in a 53.4/46.6 pass/run ratio.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... a/2011.htm

Holmgren only had 2 seasons where he ran the ball more than passing it, with the most run-heavy team being the 2005 squad, when the ratio was 47.7 pass/52.3 run.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... a/2005.htm

In other words, Holmgren NEVER had a Seahawks team that ran as much as the 2012 Seahawks. Overall, his team ran the ball 4481 times versus 5184 passes over the 10 seasons he was coach. That's a ratio of 53.6/46.4 pass/run - or almost EXACTLY what we had last season.

So, no, we do not pass more often than we run, and we would not even be close to abandoning the run if we passed more. And Holmgren's offenses fluctuated quite a bit, but in the end they averaged out about the same as what we saw from Pete Carroll's team last year - and if we passed more, this team would have a chance to be just as balanced (if not more) than any Holmgren-coached Seahawks team.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:26 pm 
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manders2600 wrote:
Tech Worlds wrote:
The Radish wrote:
Or have a very short career.

Doub Farrar did some study on this subject years ago and found running backs with more than 250 or so carrys a year tended to have very short NFL careers. Can't think of the kid from Texas with the huge legs that was a monster but lasted a very short time.

And the guy from KC, Christian Okouya? Another killer runner with a very short career.

We need to not run him to death, that's why I'm glad to see we have a good "second option" and/or change of pace back.


It ws 370 carries in a single season that Farrar claimed to be the magic number of when running backs fall off the cliff.

There have been several backs in the NFL that have defied this magic number though so I dont think it is a fact. Eric Dickerson, and LT are two backs that carried over 400 times during seasons and still performed the next years.


Ladanian Tomlinson never carried 400 times in a season, and only carried over 350 time once, in 2002, his second season in the league.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/i ... -tomlinson

http://www.nfl.com/player/ladainiantoml ... 78/profile



ok my mistake. It was a long time ago that I did the research. 2007 or so, so the names are a bit hazy. But the bottom line is that all running backs dont fall off the cliff when running the ball a ton.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:31 pm 
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kidhawk wrote:
Sgt. Largent wrote:
kidhawk wrote:

They do it because they are bringing along a 3rd round draft choice rookie at a pace they have designed for long term success. They are betting that we can stay competitive with our defense while getting Wilson built into the long term answer we've been waiting for. Whether that bet pays off is yet to be determined


I'm not saying let's run the Patriots complicated no huddle offense with five wideouts. All I'm saying is lets be less predictable so that Wilson isn't running for his life seemingly every third down cause everyone and their mom knows we have to pass.

You can bring along a rookie QB and still pass the ball with short safe passes on 1st and/or 2nd down.



I think most people can agree we need to do a better job of mixing up the play calling...similar to how we have such success doing just that in our opening drives (that set of scripted plays that most teams start games with). I wasn't really saying we should continue on this path or necessarily saying I like it, only explaining why it is that we are doing it. Personally, I think a 55% throwing to 45% passing would be a perfect balance for our offense. If our running game wasn't so good, I could see going to 60/40, but that's really as far as the separation needs to go to have a good offense IMO


So a perfect balance in your estimation is to abandon the run altogether? JK. I get what you were trying to say.

I'm sure Bevell likes stats and aims for a balanced offensive attack that leans slightly toward the run game. We are pretty close to his ideal run to pass ratio (We are at approximately 56% run/44% pass). However, we can't say that with our run/pass ratio we are unpredictable on offense. Besides the early play scripting and the late pass-happy heroics we have been in run-first playcalling mode. What makes it problematic is our power run game isn't getting us into the endzone as often as we'd like (we have 2 rushing TDs in 7 games).
In contrast our unpopular passing offense has produced 8 TDs. So as much as people put down our passing offense the completion percentage (60%) and per pass yardage (7 ypp) is better than average even while we are last in the league in passing attempts (25 attempts/game). It is a very viable option to open up the passing more so we can get the running game going as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:08 pm 
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Tech Worlds wrote:
manders2600 wrote:
Tech Worlds wrote:
It ws 370 carries in a single season that Farrar claimed to be the magic number of when running backs fall off the cliff.

There have been several backs in the NFL that have defied this magic number though so I dont think it is a fact. Eric Dickerson, and LT are two backs that carried over 400 times during seasons and still performed the next years.


Ladanian Tomlinson never carried 400 times in a season, and only carried over 350 time once, in 2002, his second season in the league.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/i ... -tomlinson

http://www.nfl.com/player/ladainiantoml ... 78/profile



ok my mistake. It was a long time ago that I did the research. 2007 or so, so the names are a bit hazy. But the bottom line is that all running backs dont fall off the cliff when running the ball a ton.


Certainly, it is possible for Lynch to continue at the pace he is and not fall off a cliff next year, but it is highly unlikely.

Given that he will be entering his seventh season, and having the number of attempts he will have had both last year and this year, along with his punishing yards-after-contact, it would be a pretty safe bet to assume less production the following season.

Again, it's not out of the realm of possibility that he would have a decent year in 2013, but the odds would be stacked against it. The odds would be a bit better if he were younger, and if he were not getting so may yards-after-contact.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:39 am 
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It was never said that the backs would fall off a cliff. It said that backs carrying this many times consistently didn't have long careers.

Dickerson did really well from 83-89 but injuries slowed him a lot after that. I was never a Dickerson fan but agree he was a great running back.

I still hate the fact he is credited with being the player with the most yards per season outright. OJ Simpson broke 2,000 yards during the time of 14 game seasons. Dickerson did NOT go over 2,000 until his 15th game and tho he had more total yards it took him more games.

I am impressed with his breaking OJ's record of most games in a season with 100 yards or more rushing. Jim Brown had 7, OJ broke that with 8, and Dickerson had either 9 or 10 as I recall.

But he did hit the end rather quickly like our own #37 did. He started having injury problems after his 4 season but managed to play his way through them. The point was that most backs that were used as much as him had pretty short careers because they just plain used their bodys up. I think Dickerson got longer cause he too was one of those guys that didn't go looking for contact at the end of plays like Lynch does.

Plus his break away speed got him out of many tackling zones. With the steller front line he had at Rams he frequently was in the open field with little or no contact and heading downfield and then out of bounds.

Lots of this was memory tho I have to admit I did check some of his career stats online.

:les:

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:19 am 
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Flyingreg (spelling) pretty much nailed it. You can't only use the backfield and deep passes and expect to throw 50% of the time. Right now we can effectively execute every running play in Bevell's play book but we are not even close on offense.

This is something that worries me going forward. The Niners changed their scheme in the second half to press more outside and deep and pretty much ignoring the short middle of the field. They figured out Wilson has good vision down field and is very effective throwing deep but struggles to see the short middle of the field.

For this offense to take the next big step we will have to use the whole field. That actually opens everything up. It draws safeties in creating opportunities deep and backs the LB's off the LOS because the ball lands behind them when they cheat up. It also opens the edges and sets up the screen play. Right now we can't even execute a screen because teams are playing us more outside than in.

This next game we are going up against a good defense who is #1 in the red zone and #1 in not giving up passes over twenty yards. It is a team who is primed to be torn up by a QB that can dink and dunk and mostly get the ball out fast. If we can't take advantage of that it will make foe a long game.

Essentially though our passing woes are due to not being able to execute a big part of the passing playbook. The big question is will we figure out how to abuse the middle before teams figure out how to shut us down like the Niners did in the second half.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:23 am 
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Russ Willstrong wrote:
Salish,

We are a run-oriented offense and No we don't pass more than we run. What you said might have held true for preseason but I wonder where you've been the last seven games.
If it helps for you to go back and review the play-by-play for all seven games for your 'mythbusters' posts then have at it. Just make sure your abacus isn't missing beads while you do so. LOL.
There are simpler ways of checking team stats.

You know what I did? I looked it up on ESPN and accidently read the opponents pass attempts instead of our own. Usually I use Yahoo and it's not set up that way. My bad. For the season we have 175 pass attempts (not 256 as I mistakenly read) and 227 rushing attempts. So about 60-40 run/pass.

Yet, reading the play by plays, it is hardly run, run, pass. Which is a consistent bitch fest around here that gets tiring to hear when it isn't true. We pass quite a bit on first down, second down etc. The only real pattern that's emerged is that on the first play of a drive we almost always hand off to Lynch. After that, it's anybody's guess.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:24 pm 
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SalishHawkFan wrote:
Russ Willstrong wrote:
Salish,

We are a run-oriented offense and No we don't pass more than we run. What you said might have held true for preseason but I wonder where you've been the last seven games.
If it helps for you to go back and review the play-by-play for all seven games for your 'mythbusters' posts then have at it. Just make sure your abacus isn't missing beads while you do so. LOL.
There are simpler ways of checking team stats.

You know what I did? I looked it up on ESPN and accidently read the opponents pass attempts instead of our own. Usually I use Yahoo and it's not set up that way. My bad. For the season we have 175 pass attempts (not 256 as I mistakenly read) and 227 rushing attempts. So about 60-40 run/pass.

Yet, reading the play by plays, it is hardly run, run, pass. Which is a consistent bitch fest around here that gets tiring to hear when it isn't true. We pass quite a bit on first down, second down etc. The only real pattern that's emerged is that on the first play of a drive we almost always hand off to Lynch. After that, it's anybody's guess.


I heard Hugh Millan say on the radio that we go run, run, pass more then any team in the league.

I think he said 25 percent of the time or something like that. Either way he said we led the league in doing it.

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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:58 pm 
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Tech Worlds wrote:
SalishHawkFan wrote:
You know what I did? I looked it up on ESPN and accidently read the opponents pass attempts instead of our own. Usually I use Yahoo and it's not set up that way. My bad. For the season we have 175 pass attempts (not 256 as I mistakenly read) and 227 rushing attempts. So about 60-40 run/pass.

Yet, reading the play by plays, it is hardly run, run, pass. Which is a consistent bitch fest around here that gets tiring to hear when it isn't true. We pass quite a bit on first down, second down etc. The only real pattern that's emerged is that on the first play of a drive we almost always hand off to Lynch. After that, it's anybody's guess.


I heard Hugh Millan say on the radio that we go run, run, pass more then any team in the league
.

I think he said 25 percent of the time or something like that. Either way he said we led the league in doing it.


The frequency of which we call run, run, pass isn't that big a deal as much as the type of runs we call. I understand that Lynch was built for our straight-up-the-gut running game but the Niners reminded us that traps, counters, delayed draws can take advantage of fast defenses and beat blitzes. Throw in play-action and we might just surprise ourselves. Like some of you have been saying an injury to Lynch is a real possibility if we don't lighten his load--it only takes one bad play. As much as we argue about the QB situation it would be more problematic to enter the playoffs without Lynch in the backfield.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the obsession with passing?
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:56 pm 
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manders2600 wrote:

Certainly, it is possible for Lynch to continue at the pace he is and not fall off a cliff next year, but it is highly unlikely.

Given that he will be entering his seventh season, and having the number of attempts he will have had both last year and this year, along with his punishing yards-after-contact, it would be a pretty safe bet to assume less production the following season.

Again, it's not out of the realm of possibility that he would have a decent year in 2013, but the odds would be stacked against it. The odds would be a bit better if he were younger, and if he were not getting so may yards-after-contact.



Marshawn is only 26 years old. I'd say that he has 3-4 more good years.


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