Marshawn Lynch - some interesting stats

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Marshawn Lynch - some interesting stats
Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:35 pm
  • Lynch is having a good season. He is #3 in the NFL in rushing yards, only 7 yds off the lead. But I have noticed some interesting stats:

    -- His longest run in the last 5 games is only 18 yards (at St Louis). For the season, his longest run is 36 yards (vs Dallas).

    -- In our last two losses, he has eclipsed 100 yards in both (at St Louis and at SF). Kind of strange.

    -- He has only scored twice this season...although for as anemic as our offense has been, I guess that's to be expected.

    I sense the Beast might break out soon...perhaps a nice long TD run this Sunday is in order!
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  • He's definitely been a work horse this year. If we could just get that passing game together we would dominate.
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  • Zebulon Dak wrote:He's definitely been a work horse this year. If we could just get that passing game together we would dominate.


    Yeah that's the scary thing - once we get a passing attack that people have to respect, Lynch is going to go off.
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  • Yup, I think that all we need is for the passing attack to generate a little consistency for Lynch to have some game breakers. Right now teams are lining up to stop the run and daring Wilson to beat them with his arm. This is why (at least IMO) we've seen quite a few long passes. They are trying to get the defenses on their heels a bit, but defenses aren't falling for it because we can't make it click consistently. We need to see a few drives back to back where Wilson's arm takes us down the field to get a defense to start to think twice about putting 8 or more in the box
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  • FlyingGreg wrote:
    -- He has only scored twice this season...


    I was just thinking about that part of it last night. Kind of like Adrian Peterson having a similiar year, being one of the rushing leaders but without the td's. Especially when so many rb's that have a lot less yards have 4 and 5 td's on the year. Guess it all comes back to how many times we are actually not just in the redzome but short and goal situations. Doesn't seem like alot, idk.
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  • kidhawk wrote:Yup, I think that all we need is for the passing attack to generate a little consistency for Lynch to have some game breakers. Right now teams are lining up to stop the run and daring Wilson to beat them with his arm. This is why (at least IMO) we've seen quite a few long passes. They are trying to get the defenses on their heels a bit, but defenses aren't falling for it because we can't make it click consistently. We need to see a few drives back to back where Wilson's arm takes us down the field to get a defense to start to think twice about putting 8 or more in the box


    And yet our best passing day this season was also Lynch's worst running day. Man I wish this offense could get it together.
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  • Zebulon Dak wrote:
    kidhawk wrote:Yup, I think that all we need is for the passing attack to generate a little consistency for Lynch to have some game breakers. Right now teams are lining up to stop the run and daring Wilson to beat them with his arm. This is why (at least IMO) we've seen quite a few long passes. They are trying to get the defenses on their heels a bit, but defenses aren't falling for it because we can't make it click consistently. We need to see a few drives back to back where Wilson's arm takes us down the field to get a defense to start to think twice about putting 8 or more in the box


    And yet our best passing day this season was also Lynch's worst running day. Man I wish this offense could get it together.


    True, but a lot of that passing came in the final half of the 4th quarter where we needed to score 2 TD's and do it rather quickly.

    What we need to get Lynch the room for the BIG game breaker type of a run, is to have a few drives that rely on Wilson's arm, and get them early in the game.

    Lynch is so BEAST though, that even though teams are really zoning in to stop him, he's still the #3 back in the league. That says a lot right there.
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  • What amazes me is his yards after contact. I heard the analyst on the SF game say he had more than 300 yards after contact! That's insane!!
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  • I got curious and checked out his red zone numbers. Lynch got the ball 22 out of 59 plays in the red zone this year. He scored 2 Touchdowns. That means he's getting the ball 37% of the time in the red zone. Outside the red zone he gets the ball 29% of the time. He gets the ball 30% of the time overall. So they definitely try to get the ball to Lynch more often in the red zone.
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  • It is true that Lynch has the 3rd most rushing yards in the league, although this statistic can be a little misleading, as Seattle has the highest run/pass ratio in the league, and Lynch has the 2nd highest number of attempts on the season.

    Among players listed as running backs with at least 20 carries on the season, Lynch ranks 23rd in yards-per-carry average.

    Rk Player Team Pos Att Att/G Yds Avg
    1 C.J. Spiller BUF RB 72 10.3 523 7.3
    2 Frank Gore SF RB 103 14.7 601 5.8
    3 Lamar Miller MIA RB 23 4.6 126 5.5
    4 Brandon Bolden NE RB 43 7.2 234 5.4
    5 Darren Sproles NO RB 22 3.7 118 5.4
    6 Bernard Pierce BAL RB 23 3.3 122 5.3
    7 Kendall Hunter SF RB 50 7.1 258 5.2
    8 Justin Forsett HOU RB 23 3.3 120 5.2
    9 Jamaal Charles KC RB 115 19.2 591 5.1
    10 Daryl RichardsonSTL RB 55 7.9 282 5.1
    11 Andre Brown NYG RB 43 7.2 215 5.0
    12 Ray Rice BAL RB 106 15.1 524 4.9
    13 Alfred Morris WAS RB 138 19.7 658 4.8
    14 Adrian Peterson MIN RB 136 19.4 652 4.8
    15 Maurice Jones-DrewJACRB 86 14.3 414 4.8
    16 Ahmad BradshawNYG RB 104 17.3 492 4.7
    17 Jonathan Dwyer PIT RB 41 10.2 192 4.7
    18 Matt Forte CHI RB 80 16 366 4.6
    19 Jackie Battle SD RB 38 6.3 176 4.6
    20 William Powell ARI RB 20 5 92 4.6
    21 Chris Johnson TEN RB 110 15.7 496 4.5
    22 Ryan Mathews SD RB 58 14.5 259 4.5
    23 Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 147 21 652 4.4
    24 Stevan Ridley NE RB 135 19.3 589 4.4
    25 Reggie Bush MIA RB 98 16.3 434 4.4
    26 DeMarco Murray DAL RB 75 15 330 4.4
    27 Peyton Hillis KC RB 21 7 93 4.4
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  • manders2600 wrote:It is true that Lynch has the 3rd most rushing yards in the league, although this statistic can be a little misleading, as Seattle has the highest run/pass ratio in the league, and Lynch has the 2nd highest number of attempts on the season.

    Among players listed as running backs with at least 20 carries on the season, Lynch ranks 23rd in yards-per-carry average.

    Rk Player Team Pos Att Att/G Yds Avg
    1 C.J. Spiller BUF RB 72 10.3 523 7.3
    2 Frank Gore SF RB 103 14.7 601 5.8
    3 Kendall Hunter SF RB 50 7.1 258 5.2
    4 Jamaal Charles KC RB 115 19.2 591 5.1
    5 Daryl RichardsonSTL RB 55 7.9 282 5.1
    6 Ray Rice BAL RB 106 15.1 524 4.9
    7 Alfred Morris WAS RB 138 19.7 658 4.8
    8 Adrian Peterson MIN RB 136 19.4 652 4.8
    9 Maurice Jones-DrewJACRB 86 14.3 414 4.8
    10 Ahmad BradshawNYG RB 104 17.3 492 4.7
    11 Chris Johnson TEN RB 110 15.7 496 4.5
    12 Ryan Mathews SD RB 58 14.5 259 4.5
    13 Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 147 21 652 4.4
    14 Stevan Ridley NE RB 135 19.3 589 4.4
    15 Reggie Bush MIA RB 98 16.3 434 4.4
    16 DeMarco Murray DAL RB 75 15 330 4.4



    20 carries minimum skews your whole point as 20 carries is wayyyyy too small a sample size to compare. So I fixed your post to only include 50 or more carries. Puts Lynch at 13th.
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  • What I like is that Lynch can beast even if our passing game isn't that great. He has still impressed even after getting that huge contract! If he is anything like last year, he will get even better towards the end of the year
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  • If Lynch was running behind the 2005 line, he would shatter every rushing record in the book

    Unfortunately he plays behind mediocrity
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  • SalishHawkFan wrote:I got curious and checked out his red zone numbers. Lynch got the ball 22 out of 59 plays in the red zone this year. He scored 2 Touchdowns. That means he's getting the ball 37% of the time in the red zone. Outside the red zone he gets the ball 29% of the time. He gets the ball 30% of the time overall. So they definitely try to get the ball to Lynch more often in the red zone.


    Interesting. That blows the perception I had right out of the water. It would be interesting to be able to break that down even further though, like for inside the 10 or something.
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  • SalishHawkFan wrote:
    manders2600 wrote:It is true that Lynch has the 3rd most rushing yards in the league, although this statistic can be a little misleading, as Seattle has the highest run/pass ratio in the league, and Lynch has the 2nd highest number of attempts on the season.

    Among players listed as running backs with at least 20 carries on the season, Lynch ranks 23rd in yards-per-carry average.

    Rk Player Team Pos Att Att/G Yds Avg
    1 C.J. Spiller BUF RB 72 10.3 523 7.3
    2 Frank Gore SF RB 103 14.7 601 5.8
    3 Kendall Hunter SF RB 50 7.1 258 5.2
    4 Jamaal Charles KC RB 115 19.2 591 5.1
    5 Daryl RichardsonSTL RB 55 7.9 282 5.1
    6 Ray Rice BAL RB 106 15.1 524 4.9
    7 Alfred Morris WAS RB 138 19.7 658 4.8
    8 Adrian Peterson MIN RB 136 19.4 652 4.8
    9 Maurice Jones-DrewJACRB 86 14.3 414 4.8
    10 Ahmad BradshawNYG RB 104 17.3 492 4.7
    11 Chris Johnson TEN RB 110 15.7 496 4.5
    12 Ryan Mathews SD RB 58 14.5 259 4.5
    13 Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 147 21 652 4.4
    14 Stevan Ridley NE RB 135 19.3 589 4.4
    15 Reggie Bush MIA RB 98 16.3 434 4.4
    16 DeMarco Murray DAL RB 75 15 330 4.4



    20 carries minimum skews your whole point as 20 carries is wayyyyy too small a sample size to compare. So I fixed your post to only include 50 or more carries. Puts Lynch at 13th.


    Fair enough. Although, I think you left off Matt Forte, who ranks 11th, making Lynch 14th of 17 RBs in the league with 50 or more carries.

    Rk Player Team Pos Att Att/G Yds Avg
    1 C.J. Spiller BUF RB 72 10.3 523 7.3
    2 Frank Gore SF RB 103 14.7 601 5.8
    3 Kendall Hunter SFRB 50 7.1 258 5.2
    4 Jamaal Charles KCRB 115 19.2 591 5.1
    5 Daryl RichardsonSTLRB55 7.9 282 5.1
    6 Ray Rice BAL RB 106 15.1 524 4.9
    7 Alfred MorrisWASRB 138 19.7 658 4.8
    8 Adrian Peterson MINRB136 19.4 652 4.8
    9 Maurice Jones-DrewJACRB 86 14.3 414 4.8
    10 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG RB 104 17.3 492 4.7
    11 Matt Forte CHI RB 80 16 366 4.6
    12 Chris Johnson TEN RB 110 15.7 496 4.5
    13 Ryan Mathews SD RB 58 14.5 259 4.5
    14 Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 147 21 652 4.4
    15 Stevan Ridley NE RB 135 19.3 589 4.4
    16 Reggie Bush MIA RB 98 16.3 434 4.4
    17 DeMarco Murray DAL RB 75 15 330 4.4
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  • His YPC don't concern me. He gets tough yards. If we had a passing game to compliment it he'd break off more big gains and be higher on that list. At the end of the season, most of the leading rushers in yards are also going to be toward the top in carries. That's the way it goes.
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  • YPC isn't as good a stat to go by as one would think. Justin Forsett consistently had a high YPC average, but couldn't keep it up when given the majority of carries in any game. The fact of the matter is that teams are stacking against the run and Lynch is still averaging near nearly four and a half yards per carry. He's (I believe) the league leader in yards after contact...THIS is a real stat to consider, because where a RB is first hit will vary, but how he runs after that is where the ability lies
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  • I have also noticed that Lynch gets better later in the games when the opposing D is tired. This why I get so mad when they back off the run late in the games.
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  • kidhawk wrote:YPC isn't as good a stat to go by as one would think. Justin Forsett consistently had a high YPC average, but couldn't keep it up when given the majority of carries in any game. The fact of the matter is that teams are stacking against the run and Lynch is still averaging near nearly four and a half yards per carry. He's (I believe) the league leader in yards after contact...THIS is a real stat to consider, because where a RB is first hit will vary, but how he runs after that is where the ability lies


    Unfortunately, it also speaks to the strength of the offensive line, and can be detrimental to a RBs long-term health.

    Ideally, you don't want any RB to get most of their yards after contact AND have 300+ carries on the season (Lynch has 147 so far, or 21 per game, putting him on pace for 336 carries).

    The Forsett point is a solid one, although this would seem to be negated by only looking at RBs with 50+ carries so far. I suppose you could further whittle it down by looking at only RBs who have 75+ or 100+.
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  • manders2600 wrote:
    kidhawk wrote:YPC isn't as good a stat to go by as one would think. Justin Forsett consistently had a high YPC average, but couldn't keep it up when given the majority of carries in any game. The fact of the matter is that teams are stacking against the run and Lynch is still averaging near nearly four and a half yards per carry. He's (I believe) the league leader in yards after contact...THIS is a real stat to consider, because where a RB is first hit will vary, but how he runs after that is where the ability lies


    Unfortunately, it also speaks to the strength of the offensive line, and can be detrimental to a RBs long-term health.

    Ideally, you don't want any RB to get most of their yards after contact AND have 300+ carries on the season (Lynch has 147 so far, or 21 per game, putting him on pace for 336 carries).

    The Forsett point is a solid one, although this would seem to be negated by only looking at RBs with 50+ carries so far. I suppose you could further whittle it down by looking at only RBs who have 75+ or 100+.


    I don't think 300+ carries is a huge number for a RB. 400+ Is, but if a RB runs the ball 20 times per game, that's 320 carries over the course of a season.

    Also, you can't always blame a RB getting hit sooner on the offensive line. When a defense puts 8 men in the box, it's rare for them not to put a hit on the rB within the first yard or 2. Lynch is that special type of back who can still churn out those runs and make them 4+ yards. This is the skill you want in a RB. RB's aren't meant to last 10 years. They take lots of hits and they get that one really fat contract and then they start to decline by the end of it. We have Lynch in his prime and I have no problem with using him to carry a load.

    What we need to do, is get the short - intermediate passing game going, so those linebackers and safeties don't cheat up to stop the run. This will give Lynch the chance to get some momentum going before that first contact, and when that happens, watch out
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  • Lynch's lower YPC validates him further for me. It means he's gaining consistent yardage on plays and not padding his stats with any long runs (which are usually created by a breakdown in the defense). Defenses are keeping him in front of them and he's still bursting through.

    I'd like to see more touchdowns, but his 100-yard games aren't "useless" as I've seen others imply. Every drive that he spearpoints helps keep an opposing offense (and our own defense) off the field. He's key to keeping our D top-notch.
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  • The fact Lynch is running so well, ESPECIALLY in game's it's necessary to win, like Stl and SF, and the Hawks offense STILL struggles speaks to Bevell's performance thus far. IMO, of course.
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  • If there wasnt so many dropped passes in crucial moments of the game on Thursday we would have seen that this offense could be crazy good.........it is so damn close.
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  • manders2600 wrote:The Forsett point is a solid one, although this would seem to be negated by only looking at RBs with 50+ carries so far. I suppose you could further whittle it down by looking at only RBs who have 75+ or 100+.

    I think if you are trying to compare the relative effectiveness of RBs, I think it is reasonable to have a minimum average carries per game of 10 or 12 (arbitrarily chosen numbers), which would put it close to what you mentioned.
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  • kidhawk wrote:
    manders2600 wrote:
    kidhawk wrote:YPC isn't as good a stat to go by as one would think. Justin Forsett consistently had a high YPC average, but couldn't keep it up when given the majority of carries in any game. The fact of the matter is that teams are stacking against the run and Lynch is still averaging near nearly four and a half yards per carry. He's (I believe) the league leader in yards after contact...THIS is a real stat to consider, because where a RB is first hit will vary, but how he runs after that is where the ability lies


    Unfortunately, it also speaks to the strength of the offensive line, and can be detrimental to a RBs long-term health.

    Ideally, you don't want any RB to get most of their yards after contact AND have 300+ carries on the season (Lynch has 147 so far, or 21 per game, putting him on pace for 336 carries).

    The Forsett point is a solid one, although this would seem to be negated by only looking at RBs with 50+ carries so far. I suppose you could further whittle it down by looking at only RBs who have 75+ or 100+.


    I don't think 300+ carries is a huge number for a RB. 400+ Is, but if a RB runs the ball 20 times per game, that's 320 carries over the course of a season.

    Also, you can't always blame a RB getting hit sooner on the offensive line. When a defense puts 8 men in the box, it's rare for them not to put a hit on the rB within the first yard or 2. Lynch is that special type of back who can still churn out those runs and make them 4+ yards. This is the skill you want in a RB. RB's aren't meant to last 10 years. They take lots of hits and they get that one really fat contract and then they start to decline by the end of it. We have Lynch in his prime and I have no problem with using him to carry a load.

    What we need to do, is get the short - intermediate passing game going, so those linebackers and safeties don't cheat up to stop the run. This will give Lynch the chance to get some momentum going before that first contact, and when that happens, watch out


    Well, only 3 players have had more than 350 carries in the last 5 seasons (2007-2011): Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner in 2008, and Chris Johnson in 2009. No one has had 400 carries in those seasons.

    Last year, Lynch had 285 carries on the season, giving him the 4th most carries that year.

    Good running teams routinely face 8 men in the box, and Seattle is certainly one of them. However, given the 4.4 ypc for Lynch (and for Turbin) and the fact that Lynch has the highest yards-after-contact of RBs, it seems that he is being contacted sooner rather than later. Whether this is a factor of poor line play, poor blocking by FBs and TEs, or the lack of a passing game is more difficult to say (probably a combination of the three).

    This is not taking anything away from Lynch, who is amazing, but rather the long-term efficacy of Seattle's approach to him.

    My point being that Seattle cannot continue to have a single RB with the 2nd highest number of carries while running the 18th most offensive plays, and getting the most yards-after-contact, with any level of sustainability. In essense, Lynch needs other players on Seattle's offense to step up, because at the moment, he IS Seattle's offense, and is being subjected to greater risk of injury.
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  • kidhawk wrote:I don't think 300+ carries is a huge number for a RB. 400+ Is, but if a RB runs the ball 20 times per game, that's 320 carries over the course of a season.
    Also, you can't always blame a RB getting hit sooner on the offensive line. When a defense puts 8 men in the box, it's rare for them not to put a hit on the rB within the first yard or 2. Lynch is that special type of back who can still churn out those runs and make them 4+ yards. This is the skill you want in a RB. RB's aren't meant to last 10 years. They take lots of hits and they get that one really fat contract and then they start to decline by the end of it. We have Lynch in his prime and I have no problem with using him to carry a load.
    What we need to do, is get the short - intermediate passing game going, so those linebackers and safeties don't cheat up to stop the run. This will give Lynch the chance to get some momentum going before that first contact, and when that happens, watch out


    Only 5 players in history have ever carried the ball 400 times in a season, only one (James Wilder) didn't have a significant drop in production and carries the following season (with 3 of them missing several games through injury)

    So whilst I'll agree that it's a HUGE number, it's far above huge, it's simply too much.
    350 is pushing the limit of the punishment a RB can take, but the way Lynch runs, he takes a pounding equivalent to someone who carries the ball significantly more times than him.
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  • There have been times he could have scored (third and 2 on like the 6) when for some illogical reason they called a passing play. Think we did something similar more than once. It is time for the beast to arise.
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