Why the huge discrepancy? Well..they use something called DVOA to determine their odds. So what is DVOA?
THE SHORT VERSION:
DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.
It's pretty comprehensive, but if you care to read the full version- here it is: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA
Here's where it gets good. We all knew we had a brutal schedule for the first 8 games, but here are our remaining opponents according to their DVOA: DET 15, MIN 11, NYJ 17, MIA 10, CHI 4, ARZ 21, BUF 26, SFO 1, STL 14 (SEA is .
If you were to take this a set further, I would say that it would be reasonable to deduct 5 points for away games and add 5 for home games. Of course this method is HIGHLY subjective. However, if that were the case, here would be our future record:
@DET -5= 13 vs 15 WIN (CLOSE GAME)
vMIN +5= 3 vs 11 WIN
vNYJ +5= 3 vs 17 WIN
@Mia -5= 13 vs 10 Loss (close game)
@Chi -5= 13 vs 4 Loss
vAz +5= 3 vs 21 Win
@Buff+5= 13 vs 26 Win
vSF +5= 3 vs 1 Loss (Close game)
v STL +5= 3 vs 14 Win
This would put us at 10-6, and most likely in the play-offs but i would say that any game within 10 points of one another would mean a lock which would mean our Lock wins would be vs NYJ, AZ, Buff, STL which I would tend to agree with.
6 Teams make the playoffs and I would venture to say that the following teams are locks to make it barring a major injury:
Of this group, I am least confident in Chicago making the playoffs but they most likely will. In my opinion that leaves about 6 teams vying for that last spot: Minnesota, Arizona, Seattle and (WSH,DAL,PHI). While STL and DET may have a shot they would have to play incredible football down the stretch against incredibly difficult schedules- I think they're both out.
Let's look at Arizona's schedule: vs SF, @GB, @ATL...wow that's almost surely 4-6 and then you add away games at SF and Seattle. THat's already 8 losses. OUT.
Minnesota's schedule includes GB twice, CHI twice, @Seattle , @Houston, @STL. I'm guessing 4 for sure losses, 2 against GB, @Chi, @Houston- then they would only need to lose one other game to have 7 losses. Obviously the importance of this game cannot be understated.
NFC East- Due to the parity in that division, and the fact that each teams knows each other so well. It's very difficult to win 10 games...Especially if the NYG win 10 or 11.
In summary, I think we're in a great spot to make the playoffs provided that we continue to progress rather than digress.