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 Post subject: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:31 am 
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Generally NFL AM is pretty good but it was bad this morning...

First they said the Niners are the number 1 defense. Alright, we can let this one slide. Niners are really good and who knows exactly what stat they are basing this off of.

Second they were bashing the Chiefs and were talking about Cassel. I got no idea who the guy is but he goes on to say this "Cassel has as many interceptions as Russel Wilson and the original gracious pigskin donor, Carson Palmer".

WTF is that? Why just randomly choose to throw Russel Wilson in there? Wilson has 6 and Palmer has 3. I don't really get the angle there. I can say Cassel has as many INTs as the Manning brothers combined. It just seemed to me as a stab at Wilson.


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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:38 am 
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The niners have the #1 defense if you go by the yards/game stat. We're currently #4, we were #1 before the Pats put up 475 yards on us.

So technically they are correct if you go off that one stat.

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:55 am 
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I hate how they go off yards to determine defense rankings. It should be points allowed (by the defense only). I think it is pretty clear the Seahawks and Niners Defenses are 1-2 in some order.


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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:10 am 
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NorCal wrote:
I hate how they go off yards to determine defense rankings. It should be points allowed (by the defense only). I think it is pretty clear the Seahawks and Niners Defenses are 1-2 in some order.


I agree - yards is a pointless metric to base a defensive ranking on. Way too many caveats to why a team might allow a lot of yards (being way up on a team, bend but don't break philosophy, etc.).

In fact, the only stat that "matters" in the NFL at all is points scored vs points allowed - obviously. All the fancy stats and window dressing mean squat.

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:12 am 
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NorCal wrote:
I hate how they go off yards to determine defense rankings. It should be points allowed (by the defense only). I think it is pretty clear the Seahawks and Niners Defenses are 1-2 in some order.


yuck, I agree with a 9'er but yeah, you're right. Since the game is won on the scoreboard and not the stat sheet, it's really points that should truly matter when talking about who the best is. If you can hold a team to FG's, you're more than likely going to win (unless you're playing St. Louis with their space mutant kicker).

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:14 am 
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Timely defensive plays aren't measured (in stats), are they?


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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:34 am 
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Points allowed (by defense only) can be misleading too. For example, if a punt returner returns it deep into the opponent's territory, obviously, they have a better chance to score than if the team on offense was deep into their own territory. Is there some kind of situational statistic that combines yards allowed and points allowed?


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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:48 am 
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Haha, this board was loving it and jumping on the "We're the #1 Defense train" last week, but now that the Hawks have dropped to #4, all I hear is "the yardage stat is a poor determiner of defensive ranking".

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:54 am 
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HawkFan72 wrote:
Haha, this board was loving it and jumping on the "We're the #1 Defense train" last week, but now that the Hawks have dropped to #4, all I hear is "the yardage stat is a poor determiner of defensive ranking".


I've never been a fan of yards allowed, can't speak for others but I never felt like we had the #1 defense. I view defenses off points allowed.

Like I said in my original post, the Niner's defense ranking doesn't bother me. They are good. They've earned that status if based off nothing but reputation.

The reason I bought it up is the context of their conversations. It was kinda like "Hey the Niners are the best defense around" but they failed to mention that the Hawks are just as good while playing better offenses.

What bothered me more was the little shot at Wilson. There was no reason to throw Wilson's name out there when you are trashing another QB.


Last edited by amill87 on Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:56 am 
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HawkFan72 wrote:
Haha, this board was loving it and jumping on the "We're the #1 Defense train" last week, but now that the Hawks have dropped to #4, all I hear is "the yardage stat is a poor determiner of defensive ranking".


Just be careful over generalizing - "this board" is pretty broad.

I've never been a fan of the yardage metric. I also could care less if we are the #1 defense or the #10 defense or whatever, as long as we win games.

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:04 am 
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FlyingGreg wrote:
HawkFan72 wrote:
Haha, this board was loving it and jumping on the "We're the #1 Defense train" last week, but now that the Hawks have dropped to #4, all I hear is "the yardage stat is a poor determiner of defensive ranking".


Just be careful over generalizing - "this board" is pretty broad.

I've never been a fan of the yardage metric. I also could care less if we are the #1 defense or the #10 defense or whatever, as long as we win games.


It is pretty broad, but I read a lot of posts about our "#1 Defense" last week and read absolutely zero posts about how "defensive rankings based on yardage are garbage".

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:05 am 
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FlyingGreg wrote:
HawkFan72 wrote:
Haha, this board was loving it and jumping on the "We're the #1 Defense train" last week, but now that the Hawks have dropped to #4, all I hear is "the yardage stat is a poor determiner of defensive ranking".


Just be careful over generalizing - "this board" is pretty broad.

I've never been a fan of the yardage metric. I also could care less if we are the #1 defense or the #10 defense or whatever, as long as we win games.


It does have the benefitof being a confidence builder going into any particular game if you need to rely on your defense to contain an opponent while trying to come from behind.
It has value, but you're right. Positive stats don't matter if it doesn't help W vs. L.

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:08 am 
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NorCal wrote:
I hate how they go off yards to determine defense rankings. It should be points allowed (by the defense only). I think it is pretty clear the Seahawks and Niners Defenses are 1-2 in some order.


I agree, it makes no sense to assign the points to the defense when a pick 6 or a special teams return is the real culprit.

Both teams have tremendous defenses, it will be intersting to see how the offense perform.


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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:17 am 
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Basis4day wrote:
FlyingGreg wrote:
HawkFan72 wrote:
Haha, this board was loving it and jumping on the "We're the #1 Defense train" last week, but now that the Hawks have dropped to #4, all I hear is "the yardage stat is a poor determiner of defensive ranking".


Just be careful over generalizing - "this board" is pretty broad.

I've never been a fan of the yardage metric. I also could care less if we are the #1 defense or the #10 defense or whatever, as long as we win games.


It does have the benefitof being a confidence builder going into any particular game if you need to rely on your defense to contain an opponent while trying to come from behind.

It has value, but you're right. Positive stats don't matter if it doesn't help W vs. L.


I doubt the team bases its confidence on where the defense is ranked. I think they feel like they are the best in the NFL, and that's all that matters. They have confidence regardless.

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:58 am 
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amill87 wrote:
What bothered me more was the little shot at Wilson. There was no reason to throw Wilson's name out there when you are trashing another QB.


I don't think that was a jab at Wilson. Wilson is a rookie, Cassel isn't. I think that was the comparison.


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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:39 am 
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I've never been a fan of yards allowed, can't speak for others but I never felt like we had the #1 defense. I view defenses off points allowed.


I used to think that way too, until St Louis kicker were making 60 yard field goals. If that is the case, yards allowed does make a difference if they convert to points every time the opponent has the ball.


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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:00 pm 
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Our defense, overall, hasn't failed us all year long. I can't think Thursday will be any different.

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:10 pm 
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.....let's see how many yards Brady & Co. put up on the San Fran D ???
THEN we'll see where both our defenses rank ??

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:13 pm 
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taz291819 wrote:
amill87 wrote:
What bothered me more was the little shot at Wilson. There was no reason to throw Wilson's name out there when you are trashing another QB.


I don't think that was a jab at Wilson. Wilson is a rookie, Cassel isn't. I think that was the comparison.


Why throw Palmer into it? It was the most random thing I've heard in awhile. There are a ton of other combinations of QBs that combine for 9 INTs.


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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:16 pm 
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NorCal wrote:
I hate how they go off yards to determine defense rankings. It should be points allowed (by the defense only). I think it is pretty clear the Seahawks and Niners Defenses are 1-2 in some order.


Well said NorCal.

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:27 pm 
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I just look at DVOA rankings. They seem to be the most scientific. After 6 weeks the top 3 defenses are:

1: Chicago
2: Seattle
3: San Francisco

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:31 pm 
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^ Yep, and we've had a tougher slate than the Bears and 49ers as far as offenses faced.

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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:38 pm 
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Our defense was #1 in points allowed last week, so I don't really understand the whole disconnect of "people were on the #1 defense bandwagon last week".

I would've thought we were going to be #1 this week, and the Niners would be #2, since the Giants hung significantly more points on the Niners than the Patriots hung on us, but guess it didn't average out that way. I also am not real fond of yardage statistics being used for total defense. I do think stuff like Yards per Rush allowed is pertinent, but a lot of passing stats are inflated by the pass friendly rules in the NFL today, so I don't think all of them are always valid.


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 Post subject: Re: Really NFL AM?
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:47 pm 
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Hawks46 wrote:
I would've thought we were going to be #1 this week, and the Niners would be #2, since the Giants hung significantly more points on the Niners than the Patriots hung on us, but guess it didn't average out that way. I also am not real fond of yardage statistics being used for total defense. I do think stuff like Yards per Rush allowed is pertinent, but a lot of passing stats are inflated by the pass friendly rules in the NFL today, so I don't think all of them are always valid.


Giants only scored 3 more points on the Niners than the Pats scored on us. The Niners gave up a lot less yardage too.

Also, Chicago only has the best DVOA because they had a bye this week (I think).

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