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 Post subject: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:16 pm 
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So I was in Las Vegas the other day and saw that our odds to win the division have doubled from 4-1 at the beginning of the season to 8-1 currently. This can be attributed in large part to the Intradivisional competition. The unanticipated solid quality of play from both the Rams and the Cards has currently recalibrated expectations for all teams in the NFC West.

8-1 are pretty steep odds considering that we are only one game behind division leading San Francisco and 2 games (tiebreaker) behind Az. Rightly or INCORRECTLY, I think most of us are assuming an Icarus like fall from grace after the Phoenix like rise of the AZ Cards. But what of San Francisco?

If we are to compete and win the NFC West, I am thinking we will need to finish 11-5 possibly even 12-4. I wouldnt expect us to go 8-3 from this point forward unless everything clicks and our defense is truly better than even we understand (which is conceivable with Wagner and Irvin's play of late) A tall order, but not inconceivable.

The question becomes: Where do the Niners accumulate their losses?

The season is still young and alot WILL happen.

But 8-1 looks pretty good to me.

What do you guys think? Is the Division honestly out of reach in your mind?

Have you resigned yourself to a fight for a Wild Card??

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Last edited by bestfightstory on Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:19 pm 
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I won't believe the division is out of reach until we're mathematically eliminated.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:21 pm 
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Not out of the question by any means. A lot happens between now and the end of the season.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:21 pm 
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San Francisco 49ers Schedule
10/14

Giants
vs
49ers


Seahawks
vs
49ers

49ers
vs
Cardinals


Rams
vs
49ers


Bears
vs
49ers


49ers
vs
Saints


49ers
vs
Rams

Dolphins
vs
49ers


49ers
vs
Patriots


49ers
vs
Seahawks


Cardinals
vs
49ers

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:22 pm 
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Right now, there are just too many scenarios to contemplate winning the division. (I spent 5 minutes typing various ones out before this got way too long and far too uninteresting.) Mostly, if we win at the 49ers on Thursday, we'll have a puncher's chance. If we don't, we're going to need a lot of chips to fall our way. (A complete 49ers collapse being one of those options.)

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Last edited by Sarlacc83 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:22 pm 
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volsunghawk wrote:
I won't believe the division is out of reach until we're mathematically eliminated.


This

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:24 pm 
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The division leader has 1 more win than we do.
This isn't even a question.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:26 pm 
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Nope...but San Fran is a more complete team than us right now.
But lots can happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:27 pm 
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49ers remaining schedule:

11 games left

Vs Giants
Vs Seahawks
@ Arizona
Vs St Louis
Vs Chicago
@ Saints
@ St Louis
Vs Miami
@ Patriots
@ Seahawks
Vs Arizona

Current record 4-1

Loss to Vikings
Wins against Green Bay, Detroit, Jets and Buffalo

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:27 pm 
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Sarlacc83 wrote:
Right now, there are just too many scenarios to contemplate winning the division. (I spent 5 minutes typing various ones out before this got way too long and far too uninteresting.) Mostly, if we win at the 49ers on Thursday, we'll have a puncher's chance. If we don't, we're going to need a lot of chips to fall our way. (A complete 49ers collapse being one of those options.)



Yeah. My brain swims (and drowns) in the possibilities. The most obvious is us beating them twice. I enjoy looking at their schedule and wondering where they lose games, though. The Giants Saints Bears Pats could knock them off. AZ plays them tough every year. But San Fran just looks damn good right now.

One spot I like is late in the year, San Fran travels to New England and then to Seattle in back to back games. Which feels like justice given our Pats at home-short week to San Fran in our next two games

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:28 pm 
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Crap, wasted time creating remaining schedule. Sorry BFS, thought I was helping.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:28 pm 
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Is being division champ out of reach? No
Is being division champ likely? No

Both San Francisco and Seattle have elite defenses, and I do mean elite. Both have above average special teams plays. However, as much as I hate to say it, I think San Francisco's offense is better than Seattle's. And to be honest I don't think it's that close. The 49ers have scored 79 points the last two weeks. I think if you take Seattle and put them into those two games we don't score more than 30 points in either one. I have no doubt that Seattle will be the best team in this division for the next 2-5 years AFTER this year, but I don't think we're that close yet.

One other thing, and it's going to make me nauseous to type this, I also think that despite being a 100% ass clown Jim Harbaugh is a better coach than Pete Carroll. Ugh.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:30 pm 
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Put me down for $100 on the hawks to win the division :mrgreen:

In a week the odds are going to drop dramatically :th2thumbs: :49ersmall:

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:31 pm 
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drdiags wrote:
49ers remaining schedule:

11 games left

Vs Giants
Vs Seahawks
@ Arizona
Vs St Louis
Vs Chicago
@ Saints
@ St Louis
Vs Miami
@ Patriots
@ Seahawks
Vs Arizona

Current record 4-1

Loss to Vikings
Wins against Green Bay, Detroit, Jets and Buffalo


Looks like 11-5 to me. Would predict losses @ Arizona, @ New Orleans, @ New England and @ Seattle. May lose to Chicago or Seattle at home, but I think they're equally as likely to beat Arizona and New Orleans on the road.

Coming down to tiebreakers, that loss in St. Louis could hurt a lot.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:32 pm 
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IBleedBlueAndGreen wrote:
Is being division champ out of reach? No
Is being division champ likely? No

Both San Francisco and Seattle have elite defenses, and I do mean elite. Both have above average special teams plays. However, as much as I hate to say it, I think San Francisco's offense is better than Seattle's. And to be honest I don't think it's that close. The 49ers have scored 79 points the last two weeks. I think if you take Seattle and put them into those two games we don't score more than 30 points in either one. I have no doubt that Seattle will be the best team in this division for the next 2-5 years AFTER this year, but I don't think we're that close yet.



You touched on the heart of the argument AGAINST us having a realistic shot at the Division Title, imo. 8-1 is longer odds than our record would expect and what you wrote above explains why.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:33 pm 
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drdiags wrote:
Crap, wasted time creating remaining schedule. Sorry BFS, thought I was helping.



Yours was better than mine. You showed me up in my own thread. But the honor was all mine.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:34 pm 
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bestfightstory wrote:
IBleedBlueAndGreen wrote:
Is being division champ out of reach? No
Is being division champ likely? No

Both San Francisco and Seattle have elite defenses, and I do mean elite. Both have above average special teams plays. However, as much as I hate to say it, I think San Francisco's offense is better than Seattle's. And to be honest I don't think it's that close. The 49ers have scored 79 points the last two weeks. I think if you take Seattle and put them into those two games we don't score more than 30 points in either one. I have no doubt that Seattle will be the best team in this division for the next 2-5 years AFTER this year, but I don't think we're that close yet.



You touched on the heart of the argument AGAINST us having a realistic shot at the Division Title, imo. 8-1 is longer odds than our record would expect and what you wrote above explains why.


That's what I meant to do. I don't think it's impossible to win the division, but I don't think it's very likely either.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:40 pm 
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The change in Vegas odds have to do with two things;

1. The Hawks being 0-2 in the division already
2. St. Louis and Arizona being better than originally thought

It's only game six, of course we still have a shot at the division. But IMO our chance of making the playoffs is as a wildcard team. I don't see the 49'ers losing more than 3-4 games this year, and we're not quite up to their level just yet...........but it's coming.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:41 pm 
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8-1 are pretty nice odds. It's so early right now, anything really is possible, but if you want to put a positive spin on things, here's one way to look at it:

Right now, no team in the NFC West has lost a home game, including Seattle...so if this carries through and every NFC West team loses at the others field, the division splits out at 3-3. Only us and Arizona have played at least 2 division games, and only Seattle has played both of their divisional games on the road already. Soooo, if this continues, Seattle gains 2 games on the Niners and 1 on Arizona. This would put Seattle and Arizona tied for first, IF we both win the same number of non-divisional games. I think we have the easier second half schudule compared to the Cardinals, so I'd say they are more likely to lose more games than we are.

Of course with that said, it's an awful lot of pressure to put on our rookie qb and I don't know if he can handle it all without making a few mistakes that cost us games. I'd say the 8-1 odds are pretty fair at this point, but the fan in me sees just how possible it really is.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:44 pm 
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Unless something unexpected happens, I see 12-4 as their low watermark. I am not expecting more than 10 wins for the Seahawks with 12 being my own high watermark. Division losses make it a tough odd.

So put money on it because I am never right.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:52 pm 
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We'll know A LOT more one week from today...

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 1:01 pm 
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The Harbag 9'ers have been EXTREMELY fortunate on the injury front. I don't and won't wish injury upon anyone, but they are definately a big part of the game. It only takes a couple of poorly timed injuries to key people to unwravel the whole works, so no... nothing is out of hand until all the games are played.

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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 1:18 pm 
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If the Hawks get stomped down in San Fran next Thursday, then yes I would be thinking that they cannot win the division this year. They would be 0-3 in the division at that point. That game will tell us a lot I think.


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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:00 pm 
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Out of curiosity, how have the odds for AZ changed?

The fact that the Cards started off so well probably has influenced the larger seahawks odds as much as anything else. Phoenix's proximity to Vegas and the all-in or all-off bandwagon nature of Arizona fans (I used to live there, I know it well) means that a lot of money has been poured onto the Cardinals over the past couple of weeks. Increased money on one side means Vegas has to increase the odds somewhere else to encourage even wagering.


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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:29 pm 
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The 49ers have all of their divisional games remaining. The way the Cardinals and Rams are playing, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they split game with both of them. Division games are always tough, and it's not like the 49ers are invincible this season after losing to the Vikings. The 49ers are the toughest team on our schedule after this week. If we play the way we can play, I don't see any reason why we can't match them step for step.

If we lose this week and the 49ers win, it starts looking ugly. But if we win and they lose, we're in control of our own fate in terms of beating them out. I think the season will hinge more on our ability to play on the road than it will on the 49ers opponents.


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 Post subject: Re: Is The Division Out Of Reach?
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:55 pm 
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It's simple really. Win out our last four divisional games (3 home) (1 away) and we're in the catbirds seat.


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