The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.

RolandDeschain

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It's true. I calculated it out. Let me preface this by saying that this is not a downer post and that I am not being pessimistic, or anything like that. This could be an amazing divisional race to watch for NFL fans in general, not just those that reside in the NFC West.

If the 49ers win out, they finish 14-2. If the Seahawks win out except for dropping the @ 49ers game, we finish 14-2 as well. Both teams in this scenario will have lost to the Colts, and to each other. NFL tie-breaking procedures to determine division winner go by the following:

1) Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3) Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5) Strength of victory.

Let's break it down. The first criteria would obviously be the same; both teams 14-2. The second piece of criteria would also be the same, we'd both be 5-1 in the division with each losing to each other once, so that's a wash. The third piece of criteria would also be a wash. Every team plays 16 games, and this year, the Seahawks and 49ers share 11 common opponents. (Covering 14 games because 3 are division foe duplicates.)

Seahawks 2013 Schedule:
@ Panthers
vs 49ers
vs Jaguars
@ Texans
@ Colts
vs Titans
@ Cardinals
@ Rams
vs Buccaneers
@ Falcons
vs Vikings
vs Saints
@ 49ers
@ Giants
vs Cardinals
vs Rams

49ers 2013 Schedule:
vs Packers
@ Seahawks
vs Colts
@ Rams
vs Texans
vs Cardinals
@ Titans
@ Jaguars
vs Panthers
@ Saints
@ Redskins
vs Rams
vs Seahawks
@ Buccaneers
vs Falcons
@ Cardinals

We play all the same opponents except for two, the Seahawks play the Vikings and Giants, and the 49ers play the Packers and Redskins. So, since in this scenario both teams would beat the two different opponents, we would be left with identical numbers of wins against common opponents. Another wash.

On to the 4th tie-breaking criteria. Best record against teams in the conference; the NFC in our case. Since each team would have one AFC loss (to the same team, no less; the Colts) and one NFC loss, (to each other) then this is also a wash, because both teams would have 11 wins, 1 loss in the NFC, and 3 wins, 1 loss in the AFC. Both teams would finish with 11 NFC wins.

The 5th piece of criteria is what would determine the tie-breaker if the 49ers won out the rest of the year. Right now per ESPN, the Seahawks have a strength of victory of 0.390, and the 49ers have a strength of victory of 0.441. They beat us in this category; that is, the opponents they've beaten have more wins than the opponents we have beaten, which is how strength of victory is decided. If we look at the remaining opponents of both the Seahawks and the 49ers, the 49ers face fewer losing teams if current trends continue than the Seahawks do, which means they would almost certainly finish the year with a better strength of victory number.

That would make them the NFC West winners, and the Seahawks would be a 14-2 wild card.

Even though the 49ers are a game behind us, if they win out, they win the NFC West. Incredible. Now, this is not likely to happen, but the 49ers are on a streak and it's definitely possible that we may lose to them when we go there. If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed to win the division at 15-1; but if we win all of the rest of our games except @ San Francisco, and the 49ers win out, period...We lose the division unless there are drastic changes in the right way for us with some of our future opponents.

I didn't create this thread to start a panic, and I'm certainly not panicking myself, or whining; but if anyone was under the impression that we "should still be alright" if we drop another game somewhere, it's time to think again. The best wild card the NFL has ever seen was when the 1999 Titans finished 2nd place in what was then the AFC Central division with a 13-3 record. There has never been a 14-2 wild card team. It's possible that the NFC West may produce a 14-2 wild card this year. That would be absolutely crazy.

If the 49ers and Seahawks both keep winning until we face each other in San Francisco in week 14, that game will have huge divisional implications of historic proportions. The NFC West may have been won by a team with 11 wins last year, but at this point, it's hard to see the winner of it this year not having 14 wins, possibly more.

Go Hawks!
 

RiverDog

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There's a lot of crazy scenarios this time of year. How about a team from the NFC East winning the division at 6-10 and getting to host a 14-2 wild card team?
 

rightbench

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it'd be ironic that the team that won the NFC West a couple years ago as the first team to win a division at 7-9 could also potentially be the first team to ever win a wildcard with a 14-2 record.

You could call us book ends of the NFL postseason at that point.
 

scakfan

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Win or lose SF still has to play the following week coming off the Seattle effect. Let's see right now teams 0-7 the following week after playing the Hawks.
 

Hawknballs

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if that happens the only fair way to settle it would be to play it on a neutral field. so that there is no noise to disrupt the 49ers, that would be unfair.
 

Hasselbeck

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Not going to happen. The Niners will drop a game or two along the way.
 

seanoob

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Thanks for the breakdown. I have pondered this scenario as well.
 

mikeak

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There is a logical flaw in all that information.

It is a known fact that we will beat the 49ers when we play them. So the best the 9ers can get to is 13-3 which means that we can lose 2 more games and have the tie-breaker by having beaten them twice.

All the rest goes to the wayside
 

chrispy

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The strength of opponents change on a weekly basis. It's really not meaningful until the end of the season where the entire 16 game schedule is used to base the strength of each opponent. A lot of teams have streaks where they have 2-3 "easy" or "hard" games in a row.

I think the real message here is - Win in SF and win the Division.
 

FDNYHAWK

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I have gone through this scenario already an you know what? I don't care. First of all I don't see us losing to the niners because we match up so well with them. Crushed them the last 2 times we played them, yes I know they were at home but even at San Fran last year when we were still hand cuffing Wilson we should've beat them and would've if we didn't drop so many big first down passes.
Now Of course I want home field advantage, but if we don't get it, we go on the road and kick ass. Defense and running game gets us through jan. and nobody does that better then us. I'm tired of hearing we can't win on the road
 

volsunghawk

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RolandDeschain":19x1gcaw said:
Even though the 49ers are a game behind us, if they win out, they win the NFC West. Incredible. Now, this is not likely to happen, but the 49ers are on a streak and it's definitely possible that we may lose to them when we go there. If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed to win the division at 15-1; but if we win all of the rest of our games except @ San Francisco, and the 49ers win out, period...We lose the division unless there are drastic changes in the right way for us with some of our future opponents.

Another way to phrase this is "If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed HFA throughout the playoffs." :mrgreen:

And in a nice change of pace, the Niners get to soften the Saints up for us, as they play them a couple of weeks earlier than we do (on the road, no less).

I'll go ahead and say it right now. I don't think our division will come down to tiebreakers. I think the thought of both of our teams winning out until our matchup in SF tends to overlook history and underestimate other NFL franchises. That road game against the Falcons could still be dangerous, and while I love that we get the Saints at home, I'm a touch worried about it happening after a bye. And on the 49ers side, they've got to travel to face New Orleans, and they're getting a Panthers squad that is starting to hit its stride.
 

cacksman

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Definitely rooting for the Saints in that game vs. SF. While I don't think we lose in SF, I'll be able to stomach the #2 seed much more than the #5.
 
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RolandDeschain

RolandDeschain

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chrispy":hkxklvg0 said:
The strength of opponents change on a weekly basis. It's really not meaningful until the end of the season where the entire 16 game schedule is used to base the strength of each opponent. A lot of teams have streaks where they have 2-3 "easy" or "hard" games in a row.
This is true, but the 49ers already have the SoV advantage, and since they only play two different opponents than we do the rest of the year, the Packers & Redskins compared to our Vikings and Giants, which group of two do you think will have a LOT more wins at the end of the year than the other? It's pretty likely that the 49ers would win SoV over us if they went 14-2. Not guaranteed, but pretty likely.

volsunghawk":hkxklvg0 said:
Another way to phrase this is "If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed HFA throughout the playoffs." :mrgreen:
Very true. :)

volsunghawk":hkxklvg0 said:
I'll go ahead and say it right now. I don't think our division will come down to tiebreakers.
Oh, I don't think it will, either. I'm just saying, there is a realistic chance that the scenario I described could happen. Not a one-in-a-thousand kind of thing, but as in, it really could happen.

volsunghawk":hkxklvg0 said:
I think the thought of both of our teams winning out until our matchup in SF tends to overlook history and underestimate other NFL franchises.
I also agree.
 

seahawks08

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I think 1 and 0 every week should make us not worry about anything else we cannot control. I think there are so many scenarios which will play out as we get there, but I think seahawks is peaking again, I just hope we continue to do so and win every game from hear on out.
 

cacksman

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Largent80":6vt74xh7 said:
9ers also play @Wash. who may be getting things rolling.

Thank goodness we don't have to play on that sorry excuse for a field this year!
 
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RolandDeschain

RolandDeschain

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cacksman":1jkogn05 said:
Largent80":1jkogn05 said:
9ers also play @Wash. who may be getting things rolling.

Thank goodness we don't have to play on that sorry excuse for a field this year!
No kidding. Let's call Vegas and see what the over/under would be on a 49er tearing an ACL or MCL in that game.
 

Missing_Clink

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Very interesting post. It is not unrealistic at all that both teams could wind up 14-2. That would be pretty unbelievable to be a 14-2 wild card, for either team. Hopefully the Hawks can double up and beat up on the 49ers down in SF somehow
 
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