Cano is a star, Seager is a superstar, Felix is a supernova

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  • I was just taking a peak at the advanced stats for several prominent mariners at the halfway point of the season, and one thing that really stands out is just how big of a star Seager has become, and how Felix's season so far is much better than people thought, which is saying something as he's a Cy Young frontrunner.

    Robinson Cano, despite the drop in HRs, is still on pace for 5.2 WAR. It would be his lowest WAR output in years (his average over the previous several seasons is over six.) Still, 5+ WAR is a legit all-star level player. I think I've heard that 1 WAR = roughly $8 million in salary these days, so even in a "down" year Cano is still easily earning his $24 million salary. To put this in perspective, Kyle Seager was a very good player in 2012 and 2013, and during those seasons he averaged 3.5 WAR.

    Now on to Seager. Last season Seager played 160 games for a total of 3.4 WAR. This year he's already at 3.4 WAR already in only 82 games, pacing him for almost 6.8 WAR over a full season, which would very nearly match career year Ichiro (6.9 in 2004). What's even more remarkable about this is that Seager was terrible for the first month of the season, which means that during May and June Seager has basically been one of the very best players in all of baseball. We're talking rookie Mike Trout level awesomeness over those two months.

    But what's really amazing is what Felix has done. Pitchers have a harder time racking up WAR because they only play in 20% of the games. Felix's career high WAR is 6.3, that coming of course in 2009 when he won the Cy Young.

    Well, exactly halfway through the season, Felix is already at 4.8 WAR, on pace for a ludicrous 9.6 WAR for the season. 9.6 WAR is a level of contribution only seen by the elite of the elite hitters in baseball, and is almost never reached by a pitcher. Since 1990, 9.6 WAR has only been surpassed seven times, by guys like Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Greg Maddux. Right now, Felix is on pace to have a year that is in the conversation with the career years of some of the best pitchers in the modern history of the game.
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    kearly
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  • Had to Google WAR. ;)

    Nice write up. Nice to see the M's getting some quality players that actually play to some level expected. For so many years, this has seemed to be a place where players go to lose their careers.
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    sutz
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  • and in the 8 games Felix lost or got a no decision he has given up 13 earned runs. :shock:
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    m0ng0
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  • m0ng0 wrote:and in the 8 games Felix lost or got a no decision he has given up 13 earned runs. :shock:

    Yeah, run support for him has often sucked, TBS. It has improved, though. I guess the team is starting to realize that even with Felix out there, they need to get hits and score runs.

    While I'm not totally sold on the whole "we need to add more bats" school of thought, I would love to see the M's as buyers this trade deadline instead of having their usual annual fire sale of talent, and more quality hitting is always a plus. I want to see them be very careful in what they give up to add talent, though.
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  • Kyle Seager has been incredible. I was worried about him coming into the season because of his slump in the second half last year, and then was sure he was a mirage after April.

    Boy howdy, was I wrong. Seager is such a blessing - who would've thought that Ackley would bust and Seager would become a legitimate top-tier third baseman, like we haven't had since Beltre (and honestly, Seager this year has been better than Beltre was while he was here, IMO).

    I still think if they'd just pull the trigger and give Ackley half a year in AAA, there's a chance he'd turn around, but they don't seem keen to do it.
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  • Ackley is toast, he doesn't have anything to learn in the minors and has had 2000+ at bats in the majors. This offseason Seattle definitely needs to move on from Ackley and Smoak. They are replacement level guys and just aren't getting any better.

    I really hope Morrison has figured something out and his recent hitting is more than a hot streak. We've needed a decent 1st baseman ever since Sexson fell off his career cliff. For years smart M's fans have been screaming for help at corner outfield, I really hope the ownership is willing to budge slightly to open the checkbook for one corner outfielder.

    Last thing, I would really like to see Miller get his average up, his defense has been statistically good and he's got very nice power for a shortstop with a plus glove. Zunino is a similar story. Both players are helping the team despite really low batting averages right now. If they can give the same performance while batting .260 they'd be incredibly valuable players and the Mariners would be a legit force in the AL.
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    kearly
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  • WAR = Wins Above Replacement

    The idea is that this player is worth +/- wins over the average baseball player.

    So Felix is worth nearly +5 wins to a teams record.

    With Cano, Seager and Felix, they collectively make the M's 10+ games better in the win column.
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    sammyc521
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  • Good stuff kearly thanks. Been time to move on from Smoak for a couple of years now.
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    hawksfansinceday1
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  • kearly wrote:Ackley is toast, he doesn't have anything to learn in the minors and has had 2000+ at bats in the majors. This offseason Seattle definitely needs to move on from Ackley and Smoak. They are replacement level guys and just aren't getting any better.

    I really hope Morrison has figured something out and his recent hitting is more than a hot streak. We've needed a decent 1st baseman ever since Sexson fell off his career cliff. For years smart M's fans have been screaming for help at corner outfield, I really hope the ownership is willing to budge slightly to open the checkbook for one corner outfielder.

    Last thing, I would really like to see Miller get his average up, his defense has been statistically good and he's got very nice power for a shortstop with a plus glove. Zunino is a similar story. Both players are helping the team despite really low batting averages right now. If they can give the same performance while batting .260 they'd be incredibly valuable players and the Mariners would be a legit force in the AL.


    I'd take .240 from both of them, given their positions, their power, and their defensive play. Miller has been on the upswing, and is still very young. Both have plenty of time to improve.

    What's so frustrating is that all the M's seem to do is sign DH/1B/LF types, and yet that's still where we're weak.
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