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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 2:46 pm 
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Taking walks, hitting with two strikes: Who is this Justin Smoak, and did he kidnap and stash the old Justin Smoak in his basement?

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 2:58 pm 
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Smelly McUgly wrote:
Taking walks, hitting with two strikes: Who is this Justin Smoak, and did he kidnap and stash the old Justin Smoak in his basement?


And can he leave him there? Just completely forget about him? I dunno about an all star, but I would be happy with solid production like this.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:26 pm 
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About time the Ms got their first sweep of the year. Nice to see the offense coming around. Lets just hope they can keep it up for the long term.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 7:54 pm 
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Blitzer88 wrote:
About time the Ms got their first sweep of the year. Nice to see the offense coming around. Lets just hope they can keep it up for the long term.


yeah, its nice to see Smoak hiting well too, i had given up on him.

hopefully this isnt just our annual all-star break run.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 12:19 pm 
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GoldenIsThyTate wrote:
yeah, its nice to see Smoak hiting well too, i had given up on him.

hopefully this isnt just our annual all-star break run.

Ditto & ditto

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 12:55 pm 
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At this point I will take Major League average. The young guys seem to be getting their act together. Is it sustainable ? Who knows and I have no psychic ability and I am just enjoying it.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 3:04 pm 
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last sunday was damn near perfect, I even picked up an old school trident hat :-)

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 3:11 pm 
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We almost have an order next year that is an MLB club:

(Insert speedy CF)
Nick Franklin 2B
Kyle Seager 3B
(Insert DH Power Hitter)
(Insert LF/RF)
Justin Smoak 1B
(Insert LF/RF)
Brad Miller SS
Mike Zunino C

SP:
Hernandez
Iwakuma
Walker
Paxton
Hultzen

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 6:41 pm 
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I think that Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez producing in the middle of the lineup has a lot to do with the others playing well. They are seeing better pitches (ones they can hit) now. Keeping one, if not both, should be a priority.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 6:59 pm 
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in addition to them I would include Morse

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:21 am 
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Speaking of Morse, what's his status?

Second half starting, should be interesting to see how these young bucks perform the rest of the way...

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 11:24 am 
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I would be fine with a short-term deal for Morales. He's 31 and a power guy, so he's probably got two more years of solid production at best. Honestly, unless Seattle can trade Morales or Ibanez for a long-term starter in the OF (which is unlikely), I see no reason to trade either guy. I think it might be more important to get back to .500 by the end of the year and show some improvement than it is to get some life-long AA prospects or whatever.

I would be fine with trading Morse, however. In fact, can we undo that trade and have Jaso back to platoon with Zunino? No? OK, in that case, Morse can still go elsewhere. I would prefer an AAA prospect in the outfield that can actually compete for a spot next Spring Training.

Where is everyone on Iwakuma? I like the guy, though he seems to be coming back down to earth. I don't think he costs much, though, and I would not trade him unless someone was still into his first-half numbers and would trade big on the pretext of getting those numbers. Otherwise, he could be a fine 2/3 for next year depending on how Paxton, Hultzen, and Walker progress (though Hultzen being hurt again SUUUUUUCKS).

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:58 pm 
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Smelly McUgly wrote:
I would be fine with a short-term deal for Morales. He's 31 and a power guy, so he's probably got two more years of solid production at best. Honestly, unless Seattle can trade Morales or Ibanez for a long-term starter in the OF (which is unlikely), I see no reason to trade either guy. I think it might be more important to get back to .500 by the end of the year and show some improvement than it is to get some life-long AA prospects or whatever.

I would be fine with trading Morse, however. In fact, can we undo that trade and have Jaso back to platoon with Zunino? No? OK, in that case, Morse can still go elsewhere. I would prefer an AAA prospect in the outfield that can actually compete for a spot next Spring Training.

Where is everyone on Iwakuma? I like the guy, though he seems to be coming back down to earth. I don't think he costs much, though, and I would not trade him unless someone was still into his first-half numbers and would trade big on the pretext of getting those numbers. Otherwise, he could be a fine 2/3 for next year depending on how Paxton, Hultzen, and Walker progress (though Hultzen being hurt again SUUUUUUCKS).


I think you may be underestimating Morales - there are plenty of examples of DH/1b players producing at the plate well into their 30s (I'm not going to comment on Raul's ridiculous 41-year-old season, as that defies most explanation), and he may well be a productive hitter for longer than 2 years. Raul on the other hand is way more likely to come down to earth next year or the year after, based solely on age. His success this year is arguably the more abnormal of the two.

I think Iwakuma's a genuinely good pitcher who has sustained his success as a starter over a full season now and likely has several good years left. I don't think he can be expected to maintain his ridiculous BB/K rates and overall untouchability, but IMO the decision to keep him is fairly easy, particularly for a starting rotation that may be fielding 3 rookies next year who are more likely than not to struggle. That said, there are such things as offers too good to turn down, and he would obviously be a highly valued target.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:31 pm 
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jkitsune: Fair points.

Re: Morales, it could just be my Richie Sexon-meter going off, but I do believe that power-guys that get their numbers through swinging a lot (and striking out a lot) tend to fall off quicker as they lose bat speed into their mid- and then late-30s. You are right that there are some examples of DH/1B types that hit well into their mid- or even late-30s (hey, Edgar was a solid producer through his age 40 season, going .294/.406/.489). However, I think those tend to be exceptions.

Furthermore, the power hitters that do make it are usually good at taking walks to make up for their loss of power - like Edgar. This is not one of Morales' strong suits, unfortunately (he's got a 25/66 BB/K ratio this year, so not good). If he can take more walks as he gets older, I would roll the dice on him through his age 34 year, but he hasn't shown an inclination to stop swinging so much. I mean, I think it's worth a risk because he won't cost that much, more than likely, but I don't think that I am underestimating power hitters that swing at everything THAT much. Maybe somewhat, but I feel like Morales does not have the skillset to compensate for his eventual loss of bat speed that is occurring even now.

Re: Iwakuma, I think you are right on this one. We are running Saunders and Harang out there now because we don't have many options in the first place. Even if two of Ramirez/Hultzen/Paxton/Walker are ready to go next year, it makes no sense to get rid of a low-cost SP that is a reliable #3 at worst. Iwakuma isn't the guy that he was over the first half of the season minus his last two starts, but he's definitely a good player. Keep him unless our socks get knocked off in a trade offer.

I felt this way about Fister a couple years ago, and I think Iwakuma deserves that sort of approach as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:22 pm 
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Smelly McUgly wrote:
jkitsune: Fair points.

Re: Morales, it could just be my Richie Sexon-meter going off, but I do believe that power-guys that get their numbers through swinging a lot (and striking out a lot) tend to fall off quicker as they lose bat speed into their mid- and then late-30s. You are right that there are some examples of DH/1B types that hit well into their mid- or even late-30s (hey, Edgar was a solid producer through his age 40 season, going .294/.406/.489). However, I think those tend to be exceptions.

Furthermore, the power hitters that do make it are usually good at taking walks to make up for their loss of power - like Edgar. This is not one of Morales' strong suits, unfortunately (he's got a 25/66 BB/K ratio this year, so not good). If he can take more walks as he gets older, I would roll the dice on him through his age 34 year, but he hasn't shown an inclination to stop swinging so much. I mean, I think it's worth a risk because he won't cost that much, more than likely, but I don't think that I am underestimating power hitters that swing at everything THAT much. Maybe somewhat, but I feel like Morales does not have the skillset to compensate for his eventual loss of bat speed that is occurring even now.

Re: Iwakuma, I think you are right on this one. We are running Saunders and Harang out there now because we don't have many options in the first place. Even if two of Ramirez/Hultzen/Paxton/Walker are ready to go next year, it makes no sense to get rid of a low-cost SP that is a reliable #3 at worst. Iwakuma isn't the guy that he was over the first half of the season minus his last two starts, but he's definitely a good player. Keep him unless our socks get knocked off in a trade offer.

I felt this way about Fister a couple years ago, and I think Iwakuma deserves that sort of approach as well.


You make good points. I went back and reviewed Morales' numbers, and think that I agree with you. That said, it's hard to judge given his injury history and the gap between full seasons, what his real baseline ability is. Morales hits for a higher average but also takes fewer walks than Sexson did in his prime. It may actually not be a great idea to predict Morales will be productive for more than a couple seasons. That said, as I believe you originally stated as well, keeping him around isn't such a bad idea. So, touche.

I'm not sure I've ever had a web forum interaction where both parties change their opinions an equal amount. Cheers.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 11:26 am 
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On Ibanez, I can't reasonably believe any team would make a substantial prospect offer in trade for him. And if I'm Jack Z and Wedge, I'm giving a lot more weight to Raul's value than just his production. Looking at his leadership, teaching efforts, and the overall chemistry of the team that he's been a vital element to building; to carry that 2 or 3 more years with him wanting to be in Seattle until he hangs it up, I'm not looking to trade him given what you could expect to receive in return.

Perez, Morse, Morales, Saunders, Ryan and Wilhelmsen....sure.

I'd like to keep Morales, I think his best years are ahead of him, and we should get him at the right price. But if a good offer is made, by all means, ask for a little more and see what happens.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 12:18 pm 
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I don't see Ibanez getting moved. He gets people filling seats. He is a league leader in HRs at his age which peaks interest.

Morales if he is a able to get resigned at a decent price is a good idea. Right now we need major league average players. We can groom or pick upper superior major leaguers as time goes on. We have ( I hope) some players to build on now at least.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 2:17 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 4:58 pm 
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You aren't going to get any high level prospect for either guy, and you have no HR hitters coming up from the minors. Try and keep both guys


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:39 pm 
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So nice to see the bottom of the order score 4 runs there, so much different from the start of the year when we were batting shoppach, Ryan, and andino


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:41 pm 
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Miller and Franklin are going to be studs for us. Miller has as good of range as Ryan has.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 7:09 pm 
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Screw it, I'm taking the plunge. I am ALL IN on Brad Miller.

jkitsune: Thanks for the discussion. I like to hear perspectives from other people. About the only thing I know is that I don't know that much about many topics, and baseball is one of 'em.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 8:04 pm 
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Smelly McUgly wrote:
Screw it, I'm taking the plunge. I am ALL IN on Brad Miller.

jkitsune: Thanks for the discussion. I like to hear perspectives from other people. About the only thing I know is that I don't know that much about many topics, and baseball is one of 'em.


I'll raise you Miller as well. :-)


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:46 am 
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I have even come around on Smoak! Ackley is the piece that needs to put up or move on now. We are creeping up towards .500 which was my expectation for the year with Saunders, Harrang and whatever other scrub we can throw at teams. If the offense continues to gel and we can start to mix in the young guns (when deemed ready) to the back end of the rotation we could be pretty good next year.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 1:37 pm 
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Tell me how well we are playing when the sun goes down, our improved hitting has happened just about the time the weather here has got hot, ball carries a lot better. I am glad the youngsters are getting better, but consistent play over months and not weeks is the next step and in the heavy weather of fall and early spring. I know the Mariners had the hottest or one of the hottest offense's in July so far.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 5:54 pm 
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The M's are so hot they got 1 hit and are winning 4-2.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 6:10 pm 
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hahaha I was just about to say the same thing !

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:22 pm 
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You know it's a slow day in news when ESPN puts the Mariners game in their headlines.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=330720118

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 10:47 am 
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Dayummm

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 10:55 am 
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Can't believe I'm watching these guys. They've got me interested again. Hell, I'm posting on a football forum.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 10:59 am 
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with Felix on the hill that should be lights out, Franklin with a grand salami !

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:53 am 
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This is awesome!

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:32 pm 
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Look are our young guys. This is turning in to a bright spot on a dim team.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 6:50 pm 
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The Ms are looking very impressive right now. Really hope they keep it up.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 7:46 pm 
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The Angels and Astros are still the Angels and Astros. If the Mariners can take a couple series from good teams, I'll be happier. All of that said, it's really nice to see the young guys succeeding, and gives me a fair amount of hope for the future. If Saunders and Ackley can figure something out, that's not an awful roster.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 8:14 pm 
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Win the next couple of series, and they could be around .500 and only a few game out of the wc.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2013 10:09 pm 
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jkitsune wrote:
The Angels and Astros are still the Angels and Astros. If the Mariners can take a couple series from good teams, I'll be happier. All of that said, it's really nice to see the young guys succeeding, and gives me a fair amount of hope for the future. If Saunders and Ackley can figure something out, that's not an awful roster.


How about the Rangers and Reds? Outside of one game vs the red sox, they also played that series very well.

I'm not too concerned about Ackley or Saunders. The bigger question is can this offense survive when the day comes when they lose Morales and Ibanez.

Another immediate issue is while all this sudden offense is great. Our pitching is extremely inconsistent. The ball pen is even worse. While they have shown flashes, they often are letting games slip away


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 6:29 am 
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Ibanez will re sign if its offered (hunch), Morales on the other hand is an unknown, all the team can do is make him an qualifying offer and let the chips fall where they may or trade him. Since Morales agent is a douche I assume we lose him and if so we probably get a compensatory pick? I hate losing one of our only good right handed sticks......

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:06 am 
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Yeah we'll see how they do in this Cleveland series. If they can take 2 of 3 against a good team I'll start to get excited.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:57 am 
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Trenchbroom wrote:
Yeah we'll see how they do in this Cleveland series. If they can take 2 of 3 against a good team I'll start to get excited.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 11:37 am 
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As stated, they already took two out of three against two good teams this month, Rangers and Reds, both of those on the road.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 12:57 pm 
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Vpk0718 wrote:
As stated, they already took two out of three against two good teams this month, Rangers and Reds, both of those on the road.

Yeah but they weren't closing back in on .500. Being the Mariners, as soon as they get close to or at .500, they tend to go on a 7 game losing streak. So forgive some of us for our caution here. Sincerely hope your logic holds my friend.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:44 pm 
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I just want to see the young guys continue to produce - Smoak, Franklin, Miller - and Saunders, Zunino, and Ackley show improvement. With that bullpen and back-end of the rotation I'm not expecting anything too different win/loss wise.

A splash of Walker, Ramirez, and maybe Paxton in September could give us an idea of what an improved rotation would look like next year.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 4:34 pm 
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amill87 wrote:
jkitsune wrote:
The Angels and Astros are still the Angels and Astros. If the Mariners can take a couple series from good teams, I'll be happier. All of that said, it's really nice to see the young guys succeeding, and gives me a fair amount of hope for the future. If Saunders and Ackley can figure something out, that's not an awful roster.


How about the Rangers and Reds? Outside of one game vs the red sox, they also played that series very well.

I'm not too concerned about Ackley or Saunders. The bigger question is can this offense survive when the day comes when they lose Morales and Ibanez.

Another immediate issue is while all this sudden offense is great. Our pitching is extremely inconsistent. The ball pen is even worse. While they have shown flashes, they often are letting games slip away


I'm aware that they've won some series against good teams, but if regression to the mean is going to occur, it's going to occur, and 4-run 9th innings won't produce wins against other teams... as you said. So, yeah, we'll see. If Saunders can get back on track and Ackley can start to pick it up, the Mariners are suddenly young and effective (starting pitching pending).


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:00 pm 
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That was a close one, 7 straight. Man I can only imagine how other teams fans feel that are right there in the hunt for the playoffs, I'm sitting here getting all excited to just approach .500 lol

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:01 pm 
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GoldenIsThyTate wrote:
That was a close one, 7 straight. Man I can only imagine how other teams fans feel that are right there in the hunt for the playoffs, I'm sitting here getting all excited to just approach .500 lol


Your boy Tate threw out the first pitch. That was pretty cool


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:08 pm 
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therealjohncarlson wrote:
GoldenIsThyTate wrote:
Your boy Tate threw out the first pitch. That was pretty cool


Yup, It's so awesome how I've loved Tate since he was in college and now he plays for and roots for my favorite teams.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:13 pm 
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jkitsune wrote:
amill87 wrote:
jkitsune wrote:
The Angels and Astros are still the Angels and Astros. If the Mariners can take a couple series from good teams, I'll be happier. All of that said, it's really nice to see the young guys succeeding, and gives me a fair amount of hope for the future. If Saunders and Ackley can figure something out, that's not an awful roster.


How about the Rangers and Reds? Outside of one game vs the red sox, they also played that series very well.

I'm not too concerned about Ackley or Saunders. The bigger question is can this offense survive when the day comes when they lose Morales and Ibanez.

Another immediate issue is while all this sudden offense is great. Our pitching is extremely inconsistent. The ball pen is even worse. While they have shown flashes, they often are letting games slip away


I'm aware that they've won some series against good teams, but if regression to the mean is going to occur, it's going to occur, and 4-run 9th innings won't produce wins against other teams... as you said. So, yeah, we'll see. If Saunders can get back on track and Ackley can start to pick it up, the Mariners are suddenly young and effective (starting pitching pending).


Assuming you're talking about Sunday's game with that 4-run 9th inning comment, that doesn't happen if it's not a 12-1 blowout. They're not going to trot out LaFramboise and Farquhar if it's a close game.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:32 am 
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Vpk0718 wrote:

Assuming you're talking about Sunday's game with that 4-run 9th inning comment, that doesn't happen if it's not a 12-1 blowout. They're not going to trot out LaFramboise and Farquhar if it's a close game.


I think he was speaking of the Indians game last night that Seattle won 2-1 with Harrang pitching 8)

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 Post subject: Re: Let's Talk Mariners
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:41 am 
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Bartender got the Indians monkey off of his back--hopefully.

Let's sweep the tribe too! Go M's!

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