Football Outsiders give the 49ers

hawksfan515 · Aug 13, 2014

A 51.4% chance of making the playoffs, and their season simulator has 8-8 as their most common record. This is the first major article I've seen predicting a 49er downfall. Thoughts?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fo-esp ... -are-50-50

Brahn · Aug 13, 2014

Link me my good man, so I may contribute to this thread!

Post Link:

I feel the Niners could have issues early on because of injuries and the fact they seldom play young guys before they are called upon. This will cause a learning curve for them despite w/e athletic gifts they have. 20 of Kaepernicks 21 TDs went to VD and Boldin. Add in Crabtree,Stevie, and a Rookie WR along with McDonald and you have a bevy of targets. The issue is Kaep is unable to manipulate Def so far to take advantage of all the offensive talent.

If Kaep stays the same Kaep and if the Def struggles 8-8 is a very strong possibility. Even with all that I still have a hard time seeing the Niners under 10 wins even tho they play Hawks x2, Chi,Phi,NO,SD,Denver.

Saints 13 Wins
Hawks 11 Wins
Niners 10 Wins

hate to say it but, looking at the Saints they have it set up for HFA. They play the AFC Central (Balt,Cle,Pitt,Cinci)(Car,TB,ATL x 2)

Go Hawks, Looks like we win the SB on the road this year.

Most teams fans I feel would take a 50/50 chance at playoffs.

hawksfan515 · Aug 13, 2014

Brahn":3la9fqr2 said:
Link me my good man, so I may contribute to this thread!

Forgot the link, my bad :lol:

lvnginhwktwn · Aug 13, 2014

hawksfan515":qxzsmjv6 said:
Brahn":qxzsmjv6 said:

Link me my good man, so I may contribute to this thread!

Click to expand...

Forgot the link, my bad :lol:

How convenient.

Popeyejones · Aug 13, 2014

hawksfan515":1do9tmw4 said:
A 51.4% chance of making the playoffs, and their season simulator has 8-8 as their most common record. This is the first major article I've seen predicting a 49er downfall. Thoughts?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fo-esp ... -are-50-50

According to FO They're the fourth most likely team to make the playoffs in the NFC behind the Hawks, Packers, and Saints, no? Or do they have the Eagles more likely to win their division and get in than the 9ers to be a WC?

Either way, the Hawks have the best record projection in the NFC (almost 10 wins), meaning according to their metrics the 9ers are looking for a WC birth, and they're the most likely team in the NFC to get a WC birth.

For projections, that sounds about right to me. Agreed however that it's a much bigger headline when stripped from the context of the other playoff and record projections. Weird however that the 9ers offensive and defensive projected DVOAs are both higher than last year, but their playoff odds are lower (51.4%, down from 58.9%; I'm guessing this is just the 9ers odds going down b/c the Hawks have gone up from last year, and they're in the same division).

RolandDeschain · Aug 13, 2014

Unlike pretty much every other football website in existence, Football Outsiders has proven to have some real predictive power. DVOA for the win.

Very interesting.

seahawk12thman · Aug 13, 2014

I totally agree and have stated as such.

They have lost Jonathan Goodwin and now it looks like Alex Boone to their oline. Iupati seems to be have trouble on offense.

Receiver core:
Boldin is getting older
Johnson is having a "dreadful" camp according to Grant Cohn (Beat writer in the bay area)
Crabtree should have a terrific year since he is a pending free agent. Niners may have no choice but to sign him now.

Tight end
Davis is 30
McDonald still drops too many balls.

Running Back:
Gore is at that age where he might really start to fall off
Hyde- seems like he is a stud but haven't seen enough. He had better stay healthy.
Lattimore is still recovering.

Quarterback-

Defense
Lost their starting nose tackle, strong safety (Whitner), All Pro Linebacker and their D end cant be relied upon.
Carradine still doesn't understand his assignments (No excuse for that)
Secondary is raw.

Their time has come and gone. They can live in denial all they want but you only get so many chances to win it all and they didn't. :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall:

Rams will finish 2nd.

Marvin49 · Aug 13, 2014

seahawk12thman":2dcns5l3 said:
I totally agree and have stated as such.

They have lost Jonathan Goodwin and now it looks like Alex Boone to their oline. Iupati seems to be have trouble on offense.

Receiver core:
Boldin is getting older
Johnson is having a "dreadful" camp according to Grant Cohn (Beat writer in the bay area)
Crabtree should have a terrific year since he is a pending free agent. Niners may have no choice but to sign him now.

Tight end
Davis is 30
McDonald still drops too many balls.

Running Back:
Gore is at that age where he might really start to fall off
Hyde- seems like he is a stud but haven't seen enough. He had better stay healthy.
Lattimore is still recovering.

Quarterback-

Defense
Lost their starting nose tackle, strong safety (Whitner), All Pro Linebacker and their D end cant be relied upon.
Carradine still doesn't understand his assignments (No excuse for that)
Secondary is raw.

Their time has come and gone. They can live in denial all they want but you only get so many chances to win it all and they didn't. :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall:

Rams will finish 2nd.

wow....talk about wishful thinking....

Boldin is older...and just had one of the best seasons of his career.
Cohn on Johnson....really? The surest way to lower your IQ is to pay attention to Grant Cohn (tho his dad Lowell is a close second).
Crab looked real good before the hammy.

Davis is 30. So? Still as good as ever.
McDonald drops too many pases? According to who? Looked pretty good in limited action vs the Ravens.

Gore: People keep predicting his demise.
Hyde: looks pretty damn good so far
Lattimore still on NFI, but James is coming back and will likely be the #3 RB.

Starting Nose Tackle was actually the backup last year. The guy he replaced (Ian Williams) was just activated yesterday. I've said many, many times on this site that I was never a big fan of Donte Whitner. We'll have to see how Bethea fills in there. True tho that they'll have to get by without Bowman and Aldon for a while tho...although Aldon has been an absolute monster in camp...even drawing praise from JOHN Harbaugh in scrimmages with the Ravens. Niners also played a few games without Aldon and Willis last year...and were 5-0 (Willis only missed 2 of those tho).

Carradine is still learning. LOL...too early.....Fangio has already said that it's to be expected. He played well vs the Ravens and had a sack. This is effectively his rookie year and he was one of the few Highlights vs the Ravens. Quinton Dial was pretty damn impressive as well.

Secondary not as raw as you think. Culliver and Brock have had a lot of playing time when starters were injured. Culliver was probably their best corner in 2012 and Brock was their best corner in 2013. Thts kinda why they didn't resign the other guys. Reid started all year last year.

Ward is green. On that I can agree. He'll likely be the nickel.

Bottom line, are there question marks that need answers? Sure there are. On every team.

"There time has come and gone"? LOL. You only wish it were true.

RolandDeschain · Aug 13, 2014

I'm assuming Culliver will get suspended for four games or so immediately following the first 49ers-Rams game where he meets Michael Sam though, Marvin.

Marvin49 · Aug 13, 2014

RolandDeschain":138g7niu said:
I'm assuming Culliver will get suspended for four games or so immediately following the first 49ers-Rams game where he meets Michael Sam though, Marvin.

lol.

awww...low blow.

SoulfishHawk · Aug 13, 2014

I hate the Niners more than any team in any sport. However, they are not missing the playoffs.

Sac · Aug 13, 2014

It's possible. AZ looks good. The NFC West would send 3 teams to the dance though.

seahawk12thman · Aug 13, 2014

Marvin49":qgsa03cn said:
seahawk12thman":qgsa03cn said:

I totally agree and have stated as such.

They have lost Jonathan Goodwin and now it looks like Alex Boone to their oline. Iupati seems to be have trouble on offense.

Receiver core:
Boldin is getting older
Johnson is having a "dreadful" camp according to Grant Cohn (Beat writer in the bay area)
Crabtree should have a terrific year since he is a pending free agent. Niners may have no choice but to sign him now.

Tight end
Davis is 30
McDonald still drops too many balls.

Running Back:
Gore is at that age where he might really start to fall off
Hyde- seems like he is a stud but haven't seen enough. He had better stay healthy.
Lattimore is still recovering.

Quarterback-

Defense
Lost their starting nose tackle, strong safety (Whitner), All Pro Linebacker and their D end cant be relied upon.
Carradine still doesn't understand his assignments (No excuse for that)
Secondary is raw.

Their time has come and gone. They can live in denial all they want but you only get so many chances to win it all and they didn't. :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall:

Rams will finish 2nd.

Click to expand...

wow....talk about wishful thinking....

Boldin is older...and just had one of the best seasons of his career.
Cohn on Johnson....really? The surest way to lower your IQ is to pay attention to Grant Cohn (tho his dad Lowell is a close second).
Crab looked real good before the hammy.

Davis is 30. So? Still as good as ever.
McDonald drops too many pases? According to who? Looked pretty good in limited action vs the Ravens.

Gore: People keep predicting his demise.
Hyde: looks pretty damn good so far
Lattimore still on NFI, but James is coming back and will likely be the #3 RB.

Starting Nose Tackle was actually the backup last year. The guy he replaced (Ian Williams) was just activated yesterday. I've said many, many times on this site that I was never a big fan of Donte Whitner. We'll have to see how Bethea fills in there. True tho that they'll have to get by without Bowman and Aldon for a while tho...although Aldon has been an absolute monster in camp...even drawing praise from JOHN Harbaugh in scrimmages with the Ravens. Niners also played a few games without Aldon and Willis last year...and were 5-0 (Willis only missed 2 of those tho).

Carradine is still learning. LOL...too early.....Fangio has already said that it's to be expected. He played well vs the Ravens and had a sack. This is effectively his rookie year and he was one of the few Highlights vs the Ravens. Quinton Dial was pretty damn impressive as well.

Secondary not as raw as you think. Culliver and Brock have had a lot of playing time when starters were injured. Culliver was probably their best corner in 2012 and Brock was their best corner in 2013. Thts kinda why they didn't resign the other guys. Reid started all year last year.

Ward is green. On that I can agree. He'll likely be the nickel.

Bottom line, are there question marks that need answers? Sure there are. On every team.

"There time has come and gone"? LOL. You only wish it were true.

Marvin- The Seahawks and 49ers are like The Joker and Batman. I sincerely hope this is the best rival going onto the next decade. Nothing gives fans more joy than beating one another post Harbaugh and Carroll eras. The Rams and Cardinal franchises are boring to me. The Rams should move back to LA (sorry St. Louis but I have been to your town and the Cardinals have a monopoly). I would love to see the Cardinals become relevant but we took over their stadium in prime time last year. Can you imagine that ever happening in SF? I am guessing your response would be "hell no".

I am predicting, not wishing. Last year I had us playing you guys for the NFC championship with us winning only because of home field advantage. I think I was right? Not sure what would have happened had we played in SF (Probably a loss).

In response to your post: Not all of your guys over 30 are going to regress but some are... fact!! Problem is you have a lot more of them than we do. Boldin and Gore specifically because they have played well into the playoffs three years in a row and their bodies have taken a beating... All the respect in the world to Gore However.

Quinton Dial was THIRD on the depth chart for the nose tackle spot. Sorry but Dorsey and Williams are serviceable but not all pro's. I realize that Williams was suppose to be a stud last year but sounds like his injury has healed slowly and may need another year to get back to 100%. That was the 2nd game so he should be close to all cylinders if it was a simple surgery. Dial did have 10 tackles but your first string D line gave up 25 yards rushing on the FIRST SERIES ALONE.
Your D gave up 20 yards rushing the 2nd series and I threw out the QB rushing yards. Dial made tackles but after 5 and 6 yard gains. Your safety (Ward) made a -4 yard loss. Hardly impressive.

Whitner may have been lousy in coverage but he was an enforcer. You have to have those type of players. Ward is a rookie and will be swamped with responsibilities, It will take him time before he can roam the field and lay people out (see Eric Reid).

If the Niners are going to make another deep super bowl run they are going to need a lot of young players to step up and most likely a few will but not enough in my opinion.

I don't hate the Niners like most people on this board. Why should I?? We have had the most success of all the franchises since we have joined the NFC West (I hate the Raiders and Broncos far worse) and beat your team in the most important game the teams could possibly play against each other for. Harbaugh is a great coach and you guys play pretty clean (with the exception of the Jeremy Lane hit out of bounds). We have hurt many more of your players than ours so it would be you that is more likely to hate us. Finally it sounds like this maybe the last year for Harbaugh unless SF can win the superbowl and if I am wrong I am more than willing to admit it. Lot to be excited for down south; new stadium etc., but the pressure is on.

seahawk12thman · Aug 13, 2014

Marvin49":1wcnyjss said:
RolandDeschain":1wcnyjss said:

I'm assuming Culliver will get suspended for four games or so immediately following the first 49ers-Rams game where he meets Michael Sam though, Marvin.

Click to expand...

lol.

awww...low blow.

Even worse response

ukeface:

RolandDeschain · Aug 13, 2014

Marvin49":3840mwtc said:
RolandDeschain":3840mwtc said:

I'm assuming Culliver will get suspended for four games or so immediately following the first 49ers-Rams game where he meets Michael Sam though, Marvin.

Click to expand...

lol.

awww...low blow.

Culliver's the one that lobbed up that softball, why shouldn't I take a swing? :lol:

Marvin49 · Aug 13, 2014

RolandDeschain":mpycp87o said:
Marvin49":mpycp87o said:

RolandDeschain":mpycp87o said:

I'm assuming Culliver will get suspended for four games or so immediately following the first 49ers-Rams game where he meets Michael Sam though, Marvin.

Click to expand...

lol.

awww...low blow.

Click to expand...

Culliver's the one that lobbed up that softball, why shouldn't I take a swing? :lol:

No worries...just funny.

Marvin49 · Aug 13, 2014

seahawk12thman":3fz4rfec said:
Marvin49":3fz4rfec said:

seahawk12thman":3fz4rfec said:

I totally agree and have stated as such.

They have lost Jonathan Goodwin and now it looks like Alex Boone to their oline. Iupati seems to be have trouble on offense.

Receiver core:
Boldin is getting older
Johnson is having a "dreadful" camp according to Grant Cohn (Beat writer in the bay area)
Crabtree should have a terrific year since he is a pending free agent. Niners may have no choice but to sign him now.

Tight end
Davis is 30
McDonald still drops too many balls.

Running Back:
Gore is at that age where he might really start to fall off
Hyde- seems like he is a stud but haven't seen enough. He had better stay healthy.
Lattimore is still recovering.

Quarterback-

Defense
Lost their starting nose tackle, strong safety (Whitner), All Pro Linebacker and their D end cant be relied upon.
Carradine still doesn't understand his assignments (No excuse for that)
Secondary is raw.

Their time has come and gone. They can live in denial all they want but you only get so many chances to win it all and they didn't. :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall: :49ersmall:

Rams will finish 2nd.

Click to expand...

wow....talk about wishful thinking....

Boldin is older...and just had one of the best seasons of his career.
Cohn on Johnson....really? The surest way to lower your IQ is to pay attention to Grant Cohn (tho his dad Lowell is a close second).
Crab looked real good before the hammy.

Davis is 30. So? Still as good as ever.
McDonald drops too many pases? According to who? Looked pretty good in limited action vs the Ravens.

Gore: People keep predicting his demise.
Hyde: looks pretty damn good so far
Lattimore still on NFI, but James is coming back and will likely be the #3 RB.

Starting Nose Tackle was actually the backup last year. The guy he replaced (Ian Williams) was just activated yesterday. I've said many, many times on this site that I was never a big fan of Donte Whitner. We'll have to see how Bethea fills in there. True tho that they'll have to get by without Bowman and Aldon for a while tho...although Aldon has been an absolute monster in camp...even drawing praise from JOHN Harbaugh in scrimmages with the Ravens. Niners also played a few games without Aldon and Willis last year...and were 5-0 (Willis only missed 2 of those tho).

Carradine is still learning. LOL...too early.....Fangio has already said that it's to be expected. He played well vs the Ravens and had a sack. This is effectively his rookie year and he was one of the few Highlights vs the Ravens. Quinton Dial was pretty damn impressive as well.

Secondary not as raw as you think. Culliver and Brock have had a lot of playing time when starters were injured. Culliver was probably their best corner in 2012 and Brock was their best corner in 2013. Thts kinda why they didn't resign the other guys. Reid started all year last year.

Ward is green. On that I can agree. He'll likely be the nickel.

Bottom line, are there question marks that need answers? Sure there are. On every team.

"There time has come and gone"? LOL. You only wish it were true.

Click to expand...

Marvin- The Seahawks and 49ers are like The Joker and Batman. I sincerely hope this is the best rival going onto the next decade. Nothing gives fans more joy than beating one another post Harbaugh and Carroll eras. The Rams and Cardinal franchises are boring to me. The Rams should move back to LA (sorry St. Louis but I have been to your town and the Cardinals have a monopoly). I would love to see the Cardinals become relevant but we took over their stadium in prime time last year. Can you imagine that ever happening in SF? I am guessing your response would be "hell no".

I am predicting, not wishing. Last year I had us playing you guys for the NFC championship with us winning only because of home field advantage. I think I was right? Not sure what would have happened had we played in SF (Probably a loss).

In response to your post: Not all of your guys over 30 are going to regress but some are... fact!! Problem is you have a lot more of them than we do. Boldin and Gore specifically because they have played well into the playoffs three years in a row and their bodies have taken a beating... All the respect in the world to Gore However.

Quinton Dial was THIRD on the depth chart for the nose tackle spot. Sorry but Dorsey and Williams are serviceable but not all pro's. I realize that Williams was suppose to be a stud last year but sounds like his injury has healed slowly and may need another year to get back to 100%. That was the 2nd game so he should be close to all cylinders if it was a simple surgery. Dial did have 10 tackles but your first string D line gave up 25 yards rushing on the FIRST SERIES ALONE.
Your D gave up 20 yards rushing the 2nd series and I threw out the QB rushing yards. Dial made tackles but after 5 and 6 yard gains. Your safety (Ward) made a -4 yard loss. Hardly impressive.

Whitner may have been lousy in coverage but he was an enforcer. You have to have those type of players. Ward is a rookie and will be swamped with responsibilities, It will take him time before he can roam the field and lay people out (see Eric Reid).

If the Niners are going to make another deep super bowl run they are going to need a lot of young players to step up and most likely a few will but not enough in my opinion.

I don't hate the Niners like most people on this board. Why should I?? We have had the most success of all the franchises since we have joined the NFC West (I hate the Raiders and Broncos far worse) and beat your team in the most important game the teams could possibly play against each other for. Harbaugh is a great coach and you guys play pretty clean (with the exception of the Jeremy Lane hit out of bounds). We have hurt many more of your players than ours so it would be you that is more likely to hate us. Finally it sounds like this maybe the last year for Harbaugh unless SF can win the superbowl and if I am wrong I am more than willing to admit it. Lot to be excited for down south; new stadium etc., but the pressure is on.

Lots of assumptions there....

Starters over 30? Boldin, Gore, Vernon, Brooks( I think), and Justin. Yup. That's a number of guys and some will probably take a step back.

Boldin? Just had one of his best years when he was being doubled most of the year. Now he'll have Crab back and Stevie Johnson. Even if Boldin sucks (and he's showing no signs of that), they have something now they didn't have last year...depth.

Gore? Time will eventually catch him, but it hasn't happened yet. They have been planning for that for awhile now and even with the loss of Kendall Hunter, they have some horses behind Frank. Hyde has impressed not only as a runner, but as a pass blocker. I love Frank Gore, but lets be real here for a sec...he has ALREADY lost a step. He's not the same guy he was 5 years ago. He's getting by right now on great scheme, great line, and great vision. He doesn't get yards "on his own" the way Lynch does. Hyde has fresh legs and some speed off the edge that Gore NEVER had. I'm not to worried about the RB position.

Vernon? Dude is in crazy good shape. Not concerned at all.

Brooks? Still looks good, but I think Corey Lemonier is the long term answer there. Remains to be seen. Brooks however is the 4th best LB amongst the starters (Aldon, Willis, Bowman).

Justin? Justin played the entire year last year injured. Bad shoulder. Didn't have much strength in his arm and it showed. Its very possible he will be BETTER this year than last because he'll be healthy. If not, Carradine and Dial have looked really good.

Dial was third on the depth chart? I'm not sure I have any clue what your point is there. BTW, I think he's listed as 4th because Purcell is ahead of him and Dial is listed as a DE.

Rushing yards on second drive? That is really the funniest part of the post considering SEVEN of the starters on D didn't play including SIX members of the front 7 (and no....Carradine and Dial weren't in either...it was Jerod-Eddie and Dobbs). LOL. Purcell won't make the team, yet he started the game. Carradine and Dial came in on the third defensive series and played well till they tired at the end because they logged 60 snaps (starters didn't play and they had injuries meaning those guys had the play most of the game).

Finally, I don't expect the new guys to be one or one replacements...but they don't need to be. They will develop new players. Reid to me is better than Goldson ever was. Bottom line tho...I think you are way underestimating the 49ers if you think they are done.

hawkfan68 · Aug 13, 2014

On paper, I believe the 49ers have better depth at WR and RB than the Seahawks do. It's even at TE. Seahawks are ahead at QB. We'll see how it translates on the field. Seahawks have done a better job of producing on the field with what they have so hope that continues.

Marvin49 · Aug 13, 2014

hawkfan68":1engwn2d said:
On paper, I believe the 49ers have better depth at WR and RB than the Seahawks do. It's even at TE. Seahawks are ahead at QB. We'll see how it translates on the field. Seahawks have done a better job of producing on the field with what they have so hope that continues.

Really?

Not objecting...just not sure why you think it's even.

Popeyejones · Aug 13, 2014

Marvin49":32voxf9p said:
seahawk12thman":32voxf9p said:

Johnson is having a "dreadful" camp according to Grant Cohn (Beat writer in the bay area)

Click to expand...

Cohn on Johnson....really? The surest way to lower your IQ is to pay attention to Grant Cohn (tho his dad Lowell is a close second).

In Grant's most recent column he writes that the Seahawks' whole defense is going to be mediocre this year because their DBs aren't allowed to hold anymore.

Dude's a clown.

(edit: FWIW though Marv I think Lowell is even worse than Grant. I'd even put Grant ahead of Kawakami TBH, although the three of them are definitely the triumvirate of idiocy in Bay Area sports journalism, which is overall really strong.)

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