Week 16 - Pick your poison

Here are the spreads for this weeks games:


Using BETONLINE.ag odds from this page

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds

Week 15 "Who's the Man!" winner
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Week 16 "Who's the Man!"
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Week 16 "I need more cowbell!"
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Points calculations
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Pick Total
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Pick underdog outright winner - 2 pts
Pick underdog spread winner - 1 pt
Pick favored cover winner - 0.5
Pick favored outright winner - 0.25

Miss underdog outright winner - (-1pt)
Miss underdog spread - (-2pts)
Miss favored cover - (-3pts)
Miss favored winner - (-4 pts)

Scale Factor (used as multiplier of Pick Total)
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1 -4 picks = use multiplier of 1 times total value
5 -8 picks = 0.75 (if positive) or 1.25 (if negative)
9-12 picks = 0.50 (if positive) or 1.50 (if negative)
13-16 picks = 0.25 (if positive) or 1.75 (if negative)

To help me out, I suggest we use the following to annotate what type of picks you are putting in:

[bts] - Underdog beating the spread
[upset] - Underdog winning out right
[cover] - Favored team covering the spread
[win] - Favored team winning

To win
Skins, Browns, Bills.

To cover
Jags

I may add to this list as some of those evens drop off

Four evens, I think I'm going to wait a day or two.

I will update the spread Wednesday afternoon, so that the Thursday game isn't late. Damn odds-makers, don't they know they are messing up the flow of things? May need a better odds link instead of Yahoo. If any gamblers have a suggested site for odds that most agree on, send them my way.

Cover: Vikings, Colts, Raiders, Falcons

Win: Jags, Browns

Lions just changed from even to 9 pt favorites. I am thinking of using 5dimes.eu for the Ravens/Patriots and Bears/Eagles if BETONLINE.ag doesn't pick up the pace.

drdiags":201h72kx said:

I will update the spread Wednesday afternoon, so that the Thursday game isn't late. Damn odds-makers, don't they know they are messing up the flow of things? May need a better odds link instead of Yahoo. If any gamblers have a suggested site for odds that most agree on, send them my way.

Click to expand...

No more Thursday games this season Doc.

hawksfansinceday1":1tz298pp said:

drdiags":1tz298pp said:

I will update the spread Wednesday afternoon, so that the Thursday game isn't late. Damn odds-makers, don't they know they are messing up the flow of things? May need a better odds link instead of Yahoo. If any gamblers have a suggested site for odds that most agree on, send them my way.

Click to expand...

No more Thursday games this season Doc.

Click to expand...

Sweet! Then I can check later in the week to see if there are reasonable spreads out there. The tough part is if the spread changes late, folks picks may be different. I think I will use Friday afternoon as the final check on the spread. This is like a job. DOOH! :thirishdrinkers:

Here are my picks:

[upset] Bills, Colts, Jaguars, Saints

Panthers are tough but something tells me they cannot get it done against the Saints. Bills are a team I cannot figure out but they can be competitive. Dolphins have played tough since the lunchroom incident but I smell an upset. Jaguars, I have been on their bandwagon since mid-season. Tough loss last week but I am back. I see a close game at Arrowhead. Luck and his boys just seem to get it done when you figure they are done.

EDIT (Wednesday 12/18):

Replace Bills with Vikings. EJ Manuel is out so that upset pick is out the door. New picks are:

[upset] Vikings, Colts, Jaguars, Saints

nm

OK, here goes:

Bills [upset]
Vikings [bts]
Chiefs [win]
Tampa Bay [bts]
Browns [upset]
Cowboys [cover]
Panthers [cover]
Jax [upset]
Broncos [cover]
Giants [bts]
Seattle [cover]
Packers [cover]
Raiders [bts]
Ravens [cover]
Eagles [cover]
San Fran [win]

We went over this in the last thread, lol. Pick teams that are underdogs only.

Nobody should be picking any team that is favored to win, for anything.

RolandDeschain":r6sjgcrd said:

We went over this in the last thread, lol. Pick teams that are underdogs only.

Nobody should be picking any team that is favored to win, for anything.

Click to expand...

You didn't read through my intro. I added a second group of pickers, those that want to pick winners to cover or win outright. I will group them by themselves and those who pick underdogs only will be in the original "Who's the man" tally.

nm

Creating more work for yourself, Diags.

RolandDeschain":2hd6ucoa said:

Creating more work for yourself, Diags.

Click to expand...

Two more weeks and then its done. I like organization but maybe I got a little anal. DOOH!!!

drdiags":3pmlow2u said:

Polaris":3pmlow2u said:

OK, here goes:

Bills [upset]
Vikings [bts]
Chiefs [win]
Tampa Bay [bts]
Browns [upset]
Cowboys [cover]
Panthers [cover]
Jax [upset]
Broncos [cover]
Giants [bts]
Seattle [cover]
Packers [cover]
Raiders [bts]
Ravens [cover]
Eagles [cover]
San Fran [win]

Click to expand...

You are picking a couple teams to cover that are currently shown as Even, can you direct me to a odds site that you based this on?

Click to expand...

Am I not allowed to do that? Obviously if a line is pick'em, then if I get the winner correct, I also cover (which is worth more). If [cover] is illegal for pick'em games, then please change it to [win] for those cases.

To Win: Colts, Browns, Redskins (Washington for PC'ers)

bts: Raiders, Falcons, Tampa Bay

I'm hoping for aawolf to crash & burn this week, just because. :devil:

Beat the spread:
Vikings
Cardinals
Falcons (13 points is a huge spread, even though the falcons are terrible)
Giants
Jags

Dogs to win:
Washington

Pick em to win:
Steelers
Patriots
Bears