Forget surprise successes - let's guess surprise failures

Smelly McUgly

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Instead of guessing which teams will come up from 6-10 or 9-7 (or even 2-14 - I'm looking at you, Kansas City) to make the playoffs and have a successful season, let's guess a team or two that is expected to be good but that will have a mediocre-to-bad season.

Two things:

First, let's try to do this based on pre-season expectations instead of on who made the playoffs last year. Would anyone be surprised if the Super Bowl defending champion Ravens went 6-10?

Second, please please PLEASE do not turn this into a "Seattle fans say SF, SF fans say Seattle" slapfight. Please.

Alright, for me, I'm going to point the finger at the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers as a player is of course fantastic, and they still have guys like Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb catching passes, but their running game is still a question mark going into the season, they already had troubles on the OL before Bulaga went out for the year, and they have some question marks in their secondary as well. Add that to a brutal division (I think the Bears, Vikes, and Lions have reason to hope for a playoff spot out of the NFCN), and I think they might well go 8-8/9-7 and miss the playoffs with their first-place schedule.
 

RolandDeschain

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Smelly McUgly":1gg6fds2 said:
Second, please please PLEASE do not turn this into a "Seattle fans say SF, SF fans say Seattle" slapfight. Please.

Boy, have you got high expectations...

Vikings will crash. So will the Colts. 7-9 or worse for both.
 

kearly

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I would be surprised if the Ravens went 6-10. If we can only look at the most hyped teams, I would say none will surprise in a negative way.

If we just look at least year's records though:

Vikings, Colts will boomerang.

Bears, Steelers, Ravens, Falcons will decline as well.
 

CPHawk

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Manning gets his kneck fd up again, and Denver doesn't even make the playoffs. KC surprises.
 

RolandDeschain

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With the injuries to the Ravens, they might very well decline; but I think people are underestimating Flacco with his new offensive coordinator.
 

AnchoviesofTerror

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redskins, shannahan runs morris to the ground and rg3 regresses as washington barely breaks .500
 

SouthSoundHawk

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The Vikings will be bad, anyone that has expectations for that team may want to rethink that. I have all the love for AP, and he will win that team games (possibly enough to get into the playoffs and it won't look pretty...again). But, Ponder is not very good and has showed no sign that he can hack it. When I lived in the Mid West I got pretty intrigued by what they were doing 5 or so years ago, but I feel the organization lost it's way and the wheels are coming off.

I don't think the skins will be a threat if RG3's knee doesn't hold up (and I don't think it will..brace or not). I'd like to see if Alfred Morris can build on what he was able to last year and without RG3 setting up as many runs (unless Shanny really is that stupid).

Indy has been mentioned, I can get with that.

I'm going out on a limb and saying the Patriots have a lack luster season, and could miss the play offs. Tom Brady is a beast, but I think this is the year we see him start to show signs of age. I just have a feeling they can't keep pulling these winning seasons out of their butts with a suspect/average defense. I would not be surprised to see Brady light it up and that Defense play scrappy ball and they do some work int he play offs, that is simply not the route I want to go this season (why not...).

I think the Texans fall off a little (number of wins wise), yet they get just as far as they did last year.
 

EverydayImRusselin

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Based purely off preseason hype, I'm going to say Miami. They spent a lot of money and I like Tannehill, but it's sounding more and more like that LT position is just a turnstile.
 

therealjohncarlson

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Everyone's taken the good ones so Im going to go obscure here. Everyone's hyping them up based on how much they bought this offseason; THE MIAMI DOLPHINS. I Just think that team needs to establish instead before getting any hype and I dont think theres any way they dethrown the Pats
 

volsunghawk

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Smelly McUgly":1mz4eqgn said:
Alright, for me, I'm going to point the finger at the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers as a player is of course fantastic, and they still have guys like Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb catching passes, but their running game is still a question mark going into the season, they already had troubles on the OL before Bulaga went out for the year, and they have some question marks in their secondary as well. Add that to a brutal division (I think the Bears, Vikes, and Lions have reason to hope for a playoff spot out of the NFCN), and I think they might well go 8-8/9-7 and miss the playoffs with their first-place schedule.

I'll go ahead and echo this. Nelson is out for the rest of camp after having knee surgery, and Bulaga is done for the season. The O-line and defense have always been spotty, but their offensive firepower at the skill positions has usually compensated for that.

I could see the new regime in Chicago taking people by surprise and winning the division while the Packers slip back and the Vikes fall below .500.
 

CANHawk

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I think now that they'll have to actually play some real teams and won't be able to rely on a creampuff division loser's schedule, the Colts will have a dramatic and profound return to earth this year.

I think this will be the last year anyone considers the Steelers to be near-elite; they're very old and very broken down. That thing needs a total re-build from the ground up. They have some time at the bottom in their future.

I think the NFC North is going to be one of the crappiest divisions in football, and the Packers will find some way to blame it on replacement refs.

I hope I'm wrong, because I actually really like the kid, but unless they change their ways dramatically I can see Bob Griffen getting hurt real bad and missing a lot of time, paving the way for Kirk Cousins to take over that team. I think Kirk's a really good QB that only needs an opportunity.

One team I really can't put my finger on though is Philly. I'm very intreagued to see what the Chip Kelly experiment looks like. I might work, but it might just as easily get everyone hurt. They've already had a rash of injuries in training camp from the sound of it. I wonder if that up-tempo is just too much for this level.
 

candyman4881

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I have a few:
- 49ers will not make the playoffs - the injury bug has already hit the team and they have not even played their first preseason game yet - the 49ers are 2 injuries away (Gore and Justin Smith) away from being a .500 team
- Ravens will not make the playoffs either
- The Dolphins will not be as good as advertised either
- The Colts will take a few steps back this year due to a tougher schedule - still a playoff contender, but as a wild-card team again
 

Marvin49

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candyman4881":14d1g2k2 said:
I have a few:
- 49ers will not make the playoffs - the injury bug has already hit the team and they have not even played their first preseason game yet - the 49ers are 2 injuries away (Gore and Justin Smith) away from being a .500 team
- Ravens will not make the playoffs either
- The Dolphins will not be as good as advertised either
- The Colts will take a few steps back this year due to a tougher schedule - still a playoff contender, but as a wild-card team again

LOL....I was just KNEW someone was going to say 49ers. :D

1) Dolphins again prove that winning the offseason means nothing and will suck in a big way. WAY to much money spent on marginal players.

2) Rams crash and burn and realize too late that the only reason they had success in the division last year is that all the other teams featured QBs in their rookie year, first year as a starter, or in the Cards case, simply sucked. That divisional record won't look so hot this year after losing the only 2 guys who were worth a damn on that offense.

3) Falcons again fail to reach the big game because Matt Ryan is a choke artist of the first order.

4) Colts fall back a bit because there is no way Andrew Luck can survive another season like his last one.
 
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Smelly McUgly

Smelly McUgly

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RolandDeschain":3lzo63dm said:
Smelly McUgly":3lzo63dm said:
Second, please please PLEASE do not turn this into a "Seattle fans say SF, SF fans say Seattle" slapfight. Please.

Boy, have you got high expectations...

We're almost 24 hours in and so far so good!

Re: The Colts. They went 10-6, but they outplayed their pythag by like five to six games last year. They can still make the playoffs in the AFC, but they are more likely to make them at 8-8 this year, and if some combination of two of the Chiefs/Ravens/Browns/Steelers/Dolphins outplays them and snags the two Wild Cards this year, I will be less than surprised personally.
 

Marvin49

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Smelly McUgly":9dgqb73b said:
RolandDeschain":9dgqb73b said:
Smelly McUgly":9dgqb73b said:
Second, please please PLEASE do not turn this into a "Seattle fans say SF, SF fans say Seattle" slapfight. Please.

Boy, have you got high expectations...

We're almost 24 hours in and so far so good!

Re: The Colts. They went 10-6, but they outplayed their pythag by like five to six games last year. They can still make the playoffs in the AFC, but they are more likely to make them at 8-8 this year, and if some combination of two of the Chiefs/Ravens/Browns/Steelers/Dolphins outplays them and snags the two Wild Cards this year, I will be less than surprised personally.

I just can't see Luck surviving long enough to throw the ball 627 times again. They need a run game or he's dead meat.
 

candyman4881

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Marvin49":3igvbhe0 said:
candyman4881":3igvbhe0 said:
I have a few:
- 49ers will not make the playoffs - the injury bug has already hit the team and they have not even played their first preseason game yet - the 49ers are 2 injuries away (Gore and Justin Smith) away from being a .500 team
- Ravens will not make the playoffs either
- The Dolphins will not be as good as advertised either
- The Colts will take a few steps back this year due to a tougher schedule - still a playoff contender, but as a wild-card team again

LOL....I was just KNEW someone was going to say 49ers. :D

1) Dolphins again prove that winning the offseason means nothing and will suck in a big way. WAY to much money spent on marginal players.

2) Rams crash and burn and realize too late that the only reason they had success in the division last year is that all the other teams featured QBs in their rookie year, first year as a starter, or in the Cards case, simply sucked. That divisional record won't look so hot this year after losing the only 2 guys who were worth a damn on that offense.

3) Falcons again fail to reach the big game because Matt Ryan is a choke artist of the first order.

4) Colts fall back a bit because there is no way Andrew Luck can survive another season like his last one.

And I knew that someone would bring up the Rams :D . Looks like we agree on the other 3.

My two biggest concerns for the Rams this year is RB and health of the O-Line. IF both pan out, then the Rams could be a playoff team - COULD be. For your "2 guys who were worth a damn on that offense" - were you referring to Amendola, who has been hurt for more games than he has played in the last 3 years, or Steven Jackson, who I still love but who's best days are clearly behind him? I am not counting on much from the rookie WRs (even Austin) as it does take time for a WR to develop in this league, however I do think that the 2 biggest offseason moves for the Rams are Jake Long at LT and Jared Cook at TE. IF Long can stay healthy, he is a Top 5 LT in the NFL, especially playing in the power scheme and not the zone blocking scheme, which he was playing last year in Miami. Jared Cook has potential to be a very dynamic weapon who finally has a decent QB throwing to him. I am cautiously optimistic about the Rams.

You have to admit though that the offseason has not gone well for the 49ers. The injury bug has bit hard already, and we are only 2 1/2 weeks into training camp. The 49ers did have a few big offseason moves. The most underrated move of the offseason for any team that I have not seen discussed by hardly anyone is the signing of Phil Dawson for kicker. I know of 2 games that the 49ers could have potentially won if Akers could have made a field goal. The trade for Boldin is a good one, however which Boldin are you going to get? The regular season Boldin who averaged 61.4 YPG and 4 TDs total OR the postseason Boldin who averaged 95 YPG and 4 TDs total? I think the injury to Crabtree is a very huge loss, especially considering who is after Boldin? Unproven players and two injury prone players in Kyle Williams and Austin Collie? The Niners still have one of if not the best O-Line in football, a very strong running game, and a very stingy defense, however it could unravel very quickly if the front 7 cannot sustain pressure on the QB and if the running game is not what it was.
 

Marvin49

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candyman4881":ia6aki3e said:
Marvin49":ia6aki3e said:
candyman4881":ia6aki3e said:
I have a few:
- 49ers will not make the playoffs - the injury bug has already hit the team and they have not even played their first preseason game yet - the 49ers are 2 injuries away (Gore and Justin Smith) away from being a .500 team
- Ravens will not make the playoffs either
- The Dolphins will not be as good as advertised either
- The Colts will take a few steps back this year due to a tougher schedule - still a playoff contender, but as a wild-card team again

LOL....I was just KNEW someone was going to say 49ers. :D

1) Dolphins again prove that winning the offseason means nothing and will suck in a big way. WAY to much money spent on marginal players.

2) Rams crash and burn and realize too late that the only reason they had success in the division last year is that all the other teams featured QBs in their rookie year, first year as a starter, or in the Cards case, simply sucked. That divisional record won't look so hot this year after losing the only 2 guys who were worth a damn on that offense.

3) Falcons again fail to reach the big game because Matt Ryan is a choke artist of the first order.

4) Colts fall back a bit because there is no way Andrew Luck can survive another season like his last one.

And I knew that someone would bring up the Rams :D . Looks like we agree on the other 3.

My two biggest concerns for the Rams this year is RB and health of the O-Line. IF both pan out, then the Rams could be a playoff team - COULD be. For your "2 guys who were worth a damn on that offense" - were you referring to Amendola, who has been hurt for more games than he has played in the last 3 years, or Steven Jackson, who I still love but who's best days are clearly behind him? I am not counting on much from the rookie WRs (even Austin) as it does take time for a WR to develop in this league, however I do think that the 2 biggest offseason moves for the Rams are Jake Long at LT and Jared Cook at TE. IF Long can stay healthy, he is a Top 5 LT in the NFL, especially playing in the power scheme and not the zone blocking scheme, which he was playing last year in Miami. Jared Cook has potential to be a very dynamic weapon who finally has a decent QB throwing to him. I am cautiously optimistic about the Rams.

You have to admit though that the offseason has not gone well for the 49ers. The injury bug has bit hard already, and we are only 2 1/2 weeks into training camp. The 49ers did have a few big offseason moves. The most underrated move of the offseason for any team that I have not seen discussed by hardly anyone is the signing of Phil Dawson for kicker. I know of 2 games that the 49ers could have potentially won if Akers could have made a field goal. The trade for Boldin is a good one, however which Boldin are you going to get? The regular season Boldin who averaged 61.4 YPG and 4 TDs total OR the postseason Boldin who averaged 95 YPG and 4 TDs total? I think the injury to Crabtree is a very huge loss, especially considering who is after Boldin? Unproven players and two injury prone players in Kyle Williams and Austin Collie? The Niners still have one of if not the best O-Line in football, a very strong running game, and a very stingy defense, however it could unravel very quickly if the front 7 cannot sustain pressure on the QB and if the running game is not what it was.

I was taking about Amendola AND Jackson. While neither had a huge season, they were a big part of the tie. Jackson worried me because the 49ers had trouble last year with bigger, bruising RBs. (See Jackson, Steven, Peterson, Adrian, and Lynch, Marshawn).

As for the offseason for the 49ers, IMO it hasn't been as bad as some make out. Losing Crab hurts. no way around that one. Homefully they'll get him down the stretch. Losing Culliver hurts a bit, but Cully didn't look so hot down the stretch when the Niner pass rush disappeared (when both the Smiths were hurt). Willis will be OK.

As for Boldin, I don't buy into what people say with him...that he's getting old, etc. I think alot of the problems he had in Baltimore came from the OC there. People forget, but that team wasn't going anywhere until they fired the OC and replaced him with Jim Caldwell. Moreover, ALL of Boldins numbers in Baltimore are similar. He had 900+ yards in all three seasons there after several 1000 yard seasons in Arizona.

My point is that I think his production had more to do with playcalling and the system in general than a decline in skills. Do I think he's the exact same guy he was in Arizona? No, but I don't think he's declined as much as people think.

I totally agree on Dawson. Akers just KILLED them last year. He had shots to win both games vs the Rams and missed both times. Kaep was also showing his "rookie" play last year in those games. He made some huge mistakes that cost them the second game.

Here's the thing tho. Its too early to know for sure but I think they hit it out of the park in the draft. I really like Reid. I have never been a Goldson fan. He was a big hitter, but he was poor in coverage. So is Whitner for that matter. I love the picks in particular of Vance McDonald, Tank Carradine, Quinton Patton and Marcus Lattimore.

The draft alone made the offseason fun to watch. :)




BTW, I won't comment on the 49ers/Rams again just because it's kinda hijacking the thread.

My biggest dissappointment team this year will be the Dolphins. All they got was 100% fools gold in Free Agency...and I thought that LONG before the Hall of Fame game.
 

AvengerRam

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I was taking about Amendola AND Jackson. While neither had a huge season, they were a big part of the tie. Jackson worried me because the 49ers had trouble last year with bigger, bruising RBs. (See Jackson, Steven, Peterson, Adrian, and Lynch, Marshawn).

Yeah, Jackson and Amendola did a good job of holding Kaepernick to less than 7 yards per attempt and 0 TD passes.

Gotta love Whiner fans. :roll:
 
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