A mind-blowing stat about Aaron Rodgers

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A mind-blowing stat about Aaron Rodgers
Mon Jul 22, 2013 11:51 am
  • Take a moment to guess at this, then I'll post the answer. The question is, how many 4th quarter comebacks has Aaron Rodgers led against teams above .500 in his career? (That is, teams that finished the regular season with a winning record.)

    Think about it for a moment. I would say a good number for an elite quarterback would be 50%, or something around that number. You can't expect to win 'em all; and they aren't responsible for defensive breakdowns or a great special teams play by the opponent, and stuff like that. Regardless, think about what percentage you consider would be the minimum for any QB to meet if they were elite. 35% of 4th quarter comeback attempts against winning teams needed to be elite? 53%? Whatever that number is, think about it compared to what that number is for Aaron Rodgers, posted below.











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    Here's the pic linked in that Tweet, the proof:

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    Kearly, Scotte, Absolut, and other NFL minds of the forum; are you guys as blown away by this as I am? I'm flabbergasted. It makes me smile, considering how much of an "NFL Golden Boy" Rodgers is, too; not going to lie. Russell Wilson already has four 4th-quarter comebacks including the playoffs, and all four were against winning teams! http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... r=WilsRu00

    What does this say about Aaron Rodgers when the pressure is really on?
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:What does this say about Aaron Rodgers when the pressure is really on?


    I'm wondering how "4th quarter comeback" is defined here. Is it just a situation where Rodgers entered the 4th quarter with the Packers down on the scoreboard, or is it a scenario where Rodgers had the ball in his hand down by one score, with his team having the final significant possession?

    I'm going to take a look at the game logs and see what I can find out.
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  • I guessed it would be a low number, but ZERO? Really? That's crazy!
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  • Yeah, I dont know what to make of this. The Packers are just good and can score in bunches. There could also be fewer chances...?
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  • volsunghawk wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:What does this say about Aaron Rodgers when the pressure is really on?


    I'm wondering how "4th quarter comeback" is defined here. Is it just a situation where Rodgers entered the 4th quarter with the Packers down on the scoreboard, or is it a scenario where Rodgers had the ball in his hand down by one score, with his team having the final significant possession?

    From http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=3392

    Pro Football Reference wrote:For it to be a 4th quarter comeback win, you must:

    Win the game (no ties or losses)
    Take the field with a 1--8 pt deficit (1--7 prior to 1994) and score as an offense (no fumble return TD to win the game)
    It does not have to be the final winning score (hence, that applies to the number of game-winning drives)


    -The Glove- wrote:I guessed it would be a low number, but ZERO? Really? That's crazy!

    Yeah, I was blown away. It seems almost impossible; but anyone can verify it themselves. Russell Wilson gets 4 in his rookie year, and Rodgers still has 0. Absolutely crazy.

    pehawk wrote:Yeah, I dont know what to make of this. The Packers are just good and can score in bunches. There could also be fewer chances...?

    He had 18 chances against winning teams. Now, I'm sure that number is among the lowest in the NFL during this stretch of time because the Packers have been a good team and have typically led entering the 4th quarter; but still, 0 for 18?! Just...Wow.
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  • I imagine if this is something that can be proved, it's connected with the zero run game approach of Green Bay. When you don't even have to cover a running back in crunch time, you can devote all your resources to the nickel or the dime.
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  • I didn't catch that part. 0-18. Wow.

    I remember the Cards game. It sticks with me because I think the Hawks learn from last year, as the Packers did that year.
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  • Damn, DangeRuss has 4 already and should have had 1 more last year against teams over .500

    GB
    NE
    CHI
    WASH

    ATL

    Should have had 2 more against sub .500

    DET
    MIA
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  • 30 minutes later, and I'm still floored by this. Like Sac said, Wilson should have had 5; but our defense just had to give up the big play again.
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  • '07 Dallas: Rodgers didn't even start that game. Favre played 1.5 quarters. Can't fault the guy for failing against a 10-1 team as a backup.

    '08 Tampa: The Packer D gained the lead at the beginning of the 4th with a pick-six, 21-20. The Bucs got a FG to go up 23-21. Rodgers injured his shoulder in the 4th quarter and sat out 2 series, but when he returned, he threw a pick. The Packers D broke down immediately after, allowing Earnest Graham a 47 yard run, followed by a 1 yard TD to put the game out of reach. Flynn played at least 2 series in the 4th quarter of this game. The pick is bad, but injury can explain that to a degree.
    '08 Atlanta: This one is a mix of excellent Rodgers and bad Rodgers. Packers entered the 4th down a TD, and Rodgers led 2 TD drives, throwing for both scores. But he also threw a pick in GB territory that led to a short Falcons TD.
    '08 Tennessee: Packers were down 3 going into the 4th, and Rodgers managed to tie the game. It went to OT, and the Packers never got to touch the ball, as the Titans marched down the field and kicked a FG.
    '08 Minnesota: You could put this one on the kicker, maybe. Long 52 yd FG, but in a dome.
    '08 Carolina: Rodgers got the Packers down to the 1 with 3:45 to play in a tied game, and the GB running game couldn't punch it in. Still, they took the lead with a FG at the 2 minute warning. Carolina got a big return, a big play to Steve Smith, and the ball punched in by DeAngelo Williams, and 27 seconds later, the Panthers led. Rodgers threw a pick to end the game.

    Interjecting a second to point out that 6 of these games are from the '08 season, when the Packers were a 6-10 team. It was Rodgers' first season where he was actually the starter. Yeah, Wilson still did what he did, but he had a much better team around him (and a much, MUCH better O-line). Just sayin'.

    '08 Houston: Lame. Packers came into the 4th quarter down 6 and immediately scored to take a 1 point lead. Texans scored right back with a 2 pt conversion to make it a 7 pt game. Rodgers tied it again. The teams traded 3-and-outs, and then the Texans marched down the field and kicked a 40 yarder with time expiring.

    '09 Cincy: Yeah, not a good quarter for Rodgers. His accuracy was garbage, and he was sacked by Antwan Odom 3 times in this quarter alone (5 for the whole game). Without rewatching, hard to say whether that was Rodgers holding the ball too long or the O-line sucking. But definitely a bad quarter.
    '09 Minnesota: This one was pretty bad, yeah. Favre homecoming, too.
    '09 Pittsburgh: Harsh to criticize Rodgers on this one. Packers came into the 4th down by 10. By 2:12 left, they were up by 6. Rodgers drove the Packers for 3 TDs (including throwing for a 2 pt conversion), scoring 22 points to the Steelers' 2 FGs. The Steelers drove the field on the Packers and threw a TD on the last timed play to tie it. The extra point won the game. There's not anything else Rodgers could have done on this. He drove his team for TDs on every single possession of the 4th quarter.
    '09 Arizona (playoffs): Another game where Rodgers drove his team for a TD on every possession of the 4th quarter except the very last, when he kneeled down with 9 seconds left in a tied game to send it to OT. 21 points in one quarter. So that's the caveat... but OT is where he gets dinged for fumbling when sacked, allowing the Cards D to pick up the ball and run it in for a game-ending TD.

    '10 Chicago: The Packers entered the 4th leading by 3 and with the ball. They punted... to Devin Hester, who returned for a TD. Rodgers led a TD drive to regain the lead. Bears kicked a FG to tie it. Packers started driving again; Rodgers completed a pass to Jones, who then fumbled it away. Bears drove to the 1 and kicked a gamewinner. Hard to put that on Rodgers.
    '10 Atlanta: Falcons and Packers traded drives in this one, but Rodgers tied it with 1:06 to play. The kickoff was returned 40 yards with a 15 yard facemask added, and it was short work for Matt Ryan to drive from the GB 49 to FG range. Rodgers got to run one play with 2 seconds left (not a TD, obvs.)

    '11 New York (playoffs): Pretty much awful 4th quarter by GB on both sides of the ball, yeah.

    '12 San Francisco: Another good Rodgers, bad Rodgers mix. Definitely count this one.
    '12 Seattle: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
    '12 Indy: Rodgers was sacked a lot in this 4th quarter, and was ineffective for much of it as a result. Story of this one at the end was that GB was up 27-22 with 4:30 left to play, and the Colts ate up all but 35 seconds of that on a long scoring drive. In 27 seconds, Rodgers drove the Packers from their 20 to the Colts 33 and used their last timeout. 51 yd FG to tie no good.
    '12 Minnesota: Packers had 2 possessions in this 4th quarter, got 10 points. But they last touched the ball at 2:57 to go. Rodgers went 28/40 for 365 yards and 4 TDs, 0 INTs. His one real miscue of this game was fumbling when sacked in the 3rd quarter (subsequent Vikings drive was a TD that put GB down 10). More notable, Adrian Peterson ran for 199 yards and scored twice, and Christian Ponder threw for 3 TDs and drove the Vikings on their 3-minute FG gamewinning drive that prevented the Packers from touching the ball ever again.
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  • Vols, THANK YOU. Man among boys, sweetie.

    Go Auburn!
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  • Good info. Still a shocking stat, though. Any QB is going to have a number of "not his fault" 4th quarter comeback failures over time though, I imagine.
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  • Russell Wilson will be the better man by the end of next year.
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  • SacHawk2.0 wrote:Damn, DangeRuss has 4 already and should have had 1 more last year against teams over .500

    GB
    NE
    CHI
    WASH

    ATL

    Should have had 2 more against sub .500

    DET
    MIA

    And if Braylon Edwards could catch an admittedly bullet speed pass you could add the first game of the year vs. AZ to that sub .500 list.
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  • hawksfansinceday1 wrote:
    SacHawk2.0 wrote:Damn, DangeRuss has 4 already and should have had 1 more last year against teams over .500

    GB
    NE
    CHI
    WASH

    ATL

    Should have had 2 more against sub .500

    DET
    MIA

    And if Braylon Edwards could catch an admittedly bullet speed pass you could add the first game of the year vs. AZ to that sub .500 list.

    He made up for it with a difficult catch in the end zone against the Pats.
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  • pehawk wrote:Vols, THANK YOU. Man among boys, sweetie.

    Go Auburn!


    No problem.

    But there was something about this reply that made me want to read it in Helena Bonham Carter's voice. I think that's how I'm going to read all of your posts from here on out. I will report back on the entertainment value of this.
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  • Shows how worthless the 4th quarter comeback stat is..
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  • Interesting stat, I wonder wonder how many Tony Romo has had even though he is probably mostly known for the field goal slick ball and choking vs. the Giants on the 13-3 season, he has had at least one win in the fourth quarter against San Fran a few seasons ago.
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  • He would have had 1 against Seattle, but YOINK, Golden Tate took it away.
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  • drastik wrote:Shows how worthless the 4th quarter comeback stat is..


    Yeah, because since Aaron Rodgers is elite, it means he has no weaknesses or areas in which he can improve.

    :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
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  • drastik wrote:Shows how worthless the 4th quarter comeback stat is..

    Surely you are joking
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  • I wonder what the context of that stat is? Still it's very surprising.
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  • This is one stat that actually needs very little context, which is at odds with most stats. Make all the excuses you want, but in the end, Aaron Rodgers had 18 tries at scoring again to take the lead and win a game in the 4th quarter against winning teams, and failed on 100% of them. I'm sure some were due to receivers, some to the O-line, some to the defense, etc.; but QB is the single most "how this player goes, so goes the team" position in football, so it's absolutely impossible to put all the blame on others for this statistic.
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  • I don't know, iRo. How many times did he take the lead in the 4th only to have his defense give up a last minute score?
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  • Too much work to look up. You do it. Either way, this is for his whole career, and at least one of those years, his defense played exceptionally well.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:Too much work to look up. You do it. Either way, this is for his whole career, and at least one of those years, his defense played exceptionally well.


    All you had to do was read Volsung's compact account on the first page of this thread. It looks like 5 of those were unarguably out of Rodgers control.
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  • ...I did read it, and that's not quite the same thing. It doesn't tell the entire story. As he himself said in that post, he'd have to actually watch the games to see about some of them. Volsung was just looking up things that you could potentially not blame Rodgers for. He's asking specifically about times he did take the lead, then the defense lost it again.

    What I meant by what I said is I'm not willing to go watch the 4th quarters of those 18 games. Plus, in Volsung's post, we don't know how many of those opponent scores were "last-minute scores", or not.

    Volsung put in a decent amount of work for that post, and I'm glad for it; but it'd be a lot more than that to actually go watch 18 quarters, lol.
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  • Good work Vols.

    I would say there was plenty of clutch play in those games. And a few bad plays.

    But chalking those up as losses for Rogers is lame. How many of you blame Wilson for losing to Detroit and Atlanta?
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  • Rodgers was excellent in the Super Bowl and his team won. He is excellent in the playoffs. I don't think Rodgers' performance under pressure is a genuine 'area for improvement.' It's shocking that he's 0-18, but as another poster noted, the existence of a statistic doesn't necessarily proof the usefulness of it.

    I think Wilson can become every bit the QB Rodgers is, and it's phenomenal how cool Wilson is under pressure (both in the 4th quarter and in the playoffs), but (IMO) the narrative that this statistic suggests that Rodgers is subpar in the 4th quarter or under pressure is misguided.
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  • jkitsune wrote:but (IMO) the narrative that this statistic suggests that Rodgers is subpar in the 4th quarter or under pressure is misguided.


    I don't think anyone's saying Rodgers sucks in the 4th quarter, or anything like that. I'm certainly not. However, he has missed a LOT of opportunities to pull out a win when it matters a lot. Also, there are different types of pressure. Under pressure after the O-line misses a block is entirely different from the mental pressure of knowing you need to get a TD no matter what to win a game, and you have one final drive to do it, nothing more. Perhaps it's this latter area that Rodgers perhaps doesn't stay really cool under. :229031_shrug:
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  • Scottemojo wrote:Good work Vols.

    I would say there was plenty of clutch play in those games. And a few bad plays.

    But chalking those up as losses for Rogers is lame. How many of you blame Wilson for losing to Detroit and Atlanta?


    I don't think he was chalking them all up as losses for Rodgers. I didn't get that out of the contextual comments, at least.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:...I did read it, and that's not quite the same thing. It doesn't tell the entire story. As he himself said in that post, he'd have to actually watch the games to see about some of them. Volsung was just looking up things that you could potentially not blame Rodgers for. He's asking specifically about times he did take the lead, then the defense lost it again.

    What I meant by what I said is I'm not willing to go watch the 4th quarters of those 18 games. Plus, in Volsung's post, we don't know how many of those opponent scores were "last-minute scores", or not.

    Volsung put in a decent amount of work for that post, and I'm glad for it; but it'd be a lot more than that to actually go watch 18 quarters, lol.


    If I had thought ahead, I could have given an asterisk or something to each game where the opposing offense had the ball last. I think I did mention it in a couple of the games' comments, though.

    But yeah, my post wasn't intended to be a compendium of everything that happened, but rather to highlight some of the context of those 4th quarters for anyone who sees that stat for Rodgers and automatically assumes it means he lacks some kind of "clutch gene." Based on what I saw in the game logs, I'd say it was a combination of erratic play (mostly near the beginning of his starting career), awful O-line protection, some bad D, and some bad luck.

    You're definitely right that if we wanted to accurately be able to identify where things broke down for the Packers in each of those 18 games, we'd need to watch the games. Was Rodgers just off due to the elevated pressure of the 4th quarter of a close game against a good team? Was he off because blitzers were in his face within 2 seconds after the snap? How culpable was the D? I mean, I'd be happy to do something like that, but I don't invest that kind of time unless I'm either getting paid to do so or it's the Hawks we're discussing. :mrgreen:
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  • volsunghawk wrote:I mean, I'd be happy to do something like that, but I don't invest that kind of time unless I'm either getting paid to do so or it's the Hawks we're discussing. :mrgreen:


    Haha, tell me about it. I cringe at the thought of that much work that isn't going toward either supporting my beloved Seahawks, or making 49ers fans look dumb. ;)
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:Take a moment to guess at this, then I'll post the answer. The question is, how many 4th quarter comebacks has Aaron Rodgers led against teams above .500 in his career? (That is, teams that finished the regular season with a winning record.)

    Think about it for a moment. I would say a good number for an elite quarterback would be 50%, or something around that number. You can't expect to win 'em all; and they aren't responsible for defensive breakdowns or a great special teams play by the opponent, and stuff like that. Regardless, think about what percentage you consider would be the minimum for any QB to meet if they were elite. 35% of 4th quarter comeback attempts against winning teams needed to be elite? 53%? Whatever that number is, think about it compared to what that number is for Aaron Rodgers, posted below.









    Kearly, Scotte, Absolut, and other NFL minds of the forum; are you guys as blown away by this as I am? I'm flabbergasted. It makes me smile, considering how much of an "NFL Golden Boy" Rodgers is, too; not going to lie. Russell Wilson already has four 4th-quarter comebacks including the playoffs, and all four were against winning teams! http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... r=WilsRu00

    What does this say about Aaron Rodgers when the pressure is really on?


    Considering he is a super bowl champion, and had one of the best playoffs of all time that year, I don't think it says anything about his ability to play under pressure. Unless you don't believe those were pressure games. This stat just seems like a major fluke to me.
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  • They were all games against winning teams, of course they mattered. Some of you are taking this too far; it doesn't mean Rodgers is a bad, or mediocre, or average QB. It sure seems like a strong indicator that perhaps he isn't as clutch in certain situations as everyone assume(s/d) he is/was.
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  • It was an interesting stat definitely and I'm glad you posted it because I never would have guessed his record was that bad. I think I'd put more stock into it though if he didn't have a lot of great playoff performances already under his belt. So it's hard for me to question his 'clutch' ability when he's gotten it done at the most pressurized times.
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  • He's 5-3 in the playoffs. A good record thus far; but he has played approximately as well in the playoffs as he has in the regular season. In fact, the only dominant playoff performances he has had to date were all during his Super Bowl year. His best PFF QB grade in a playoff game outside his Super Bowl year is 3.1. To give you a comparison, Russell Wilson was graded at 1.1 in Washington, and 7.2 in Atlanta. 7.2 is a fantastic grading. In fact, Aaron Rodgers only has one playoff game where he ranked above Wilson; the Super Bowl he won, with an 8.7 grade. As we all know, Wilson's 1-1 in the playoffs right now; but we'll see where that number goes from here. :devil:
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  • Even if they were all in the same year, he had a number of incredible performances. It's hard to brush that aside.

    I think all you can really ask for in a QB is he gives you consistency in the postseason, which Rodgers does. His regular season output is so incredibly high that it's unrealistic to expect him to constantly top that, so the fact he plays approximately as well in the playoffs as the regular season as you point out is a plus.

    A lot of QBs can't carry over their great regular seasons into the postseason, when the competition gets better and the moment gets bigger. The guy in Denver is one.
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  • I think Rodgers quarterbacks a soft team.

    When they won the title, that was an outstanding defense, and it took a defensive play from a DB to keep the Falcons from beating them in the 4th. The Pack rediscovered a dormant run game in those playoffs too.

    Since then, they have squandered a 15-1 season in full on wimp style, and almost completely lost the will to run the ball. The run game is purely a changeup for them, a problem they are trying to fix with running backs. Too bad I think it is an OL issue.

    The D-line has miscast players now, and they have lost the nasty they need to stop the run. Raji should not be a nose ever, and the linebackers are adequate only, with the exception of Matthews.

    Point is, outside of Rodgers and his pass catchers, that is a team with holes and has been for a while now. A GB team that is not built to win in the cold is kind of dumb. Rodgers 4th quarter difficulties agianst winning teams could be a result of those things too.
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  • I lean (and hopefully sleep with) Scotte here. The only thing thet we differ on is that defense ever really being good. They got breaks with turnovers and played teams with zero swag offensively that year. The defense played way above their collective heads, it was a charmed season. It happens.
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  • pehawk wrote:I lean (and hopefully sleep with) Scotte here. The only thing thet we differ on is that defense ever really being good. They got breaks with turnovers and played teams with zero swag offensively that year. The defense played way above their collective heads, it was a charmed season. It happens.


    I kind of wonder if they even make the SB that year if they play all the playoff games at home. That team dies in the cold right now.
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  • Yup! Plus the one cold game they did play was vs your boy, Cutler.
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  • pehawk wrote:Yup! Plus the one cold game they did play was vs your boy, Cutler.

    Is that the game where he got pasted by the media for quitting on his team, only to find out he had a torn ACL?
    Cutty is kryptonite to body language experts.
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  • Yeah, lol, that was awesome. Eventually you just have to stop reading Cutler and chalk it up to befuddled douchiness.

    Cutler was a HUGE whiff of mine. I would've let Cutler bang my wife draft day, that's how much I loved his game. I remember watching his first ever game, and coming way even more impressed with a Cal running back that kept his penis once drafted. Bronco's at Bills, I still remember that game for Lynch. I was thinking "who the frick is that maniac...? He's from that pussy school in Berkley?"
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  • Thread now officially derailed.

    Mebane, Forsett, Lynch. Awesome Cal players. And yet I can't think about their roots and not think fair trade coffee.

    Chicago should have seen the Cutty coming. Behind the then best OL in ball at Denver, he kept tossing wtf interceptions. He has always had a couple of those every game. Maybe Chigaco thought it was a blood sugar thing? I still think Chicago looked at his low sack totals and thought "Peyton Manning release that prevents sacks", then went and got Martz to further compound the error. Fiasco. Bears fans lament the QB history of their team, but they ought to lament the O-line history of that team.
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  • I knew of Lynch, but knew enough to never count on a RB from Cal making it in the NFL. It's like drafting a WR from Michigan. Lynch bucked the trend.

    It's NOT derailed, Rogers went to Cal.
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  • There's some evidence that the Packers defense wasn't that great. That was a weak year for defenses; the best defense was Pittsburgh, who finished with a -20.7% DVOA, which is very good; but Green Bay's was #2, at -13.9%. To compare it to 2012, the Seahawks finished with the 4th-ranked defense per DVOA at -14.1%. They'd have finished 2nd in 2010 with that DVOA. (For defensive DVOA, the more negative the number, the better the performance.)
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:There's some evidence that the Packers defense wasn't that great. That was a weak year for defenses; the best defense was Pittsburgh, who finished with a -20.7% DVOA, which is very good; but Green Bay's was #2, at -13.9%. To compare it to 2012, the Seahawks finished with the 4th-ranked defense per DVOA at -14.1%. They'd have finished 2nd in 2010 with that DVOA. (For defensive DVOA, the more negative the number, the better the performance.)


    Thats good stuff, iRo.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:Take a moment to guess at this, then I'll post the answer. The question is, how many 4th quarter comebacks has Aaron Rodgers led against teams above .500 in his career? (That is, teams that finished the regular season with a winning record.)

    Think about it for a moment. I would say a good number for an elite quarterback would be 50%, or something around that number. You can't expect to win 'em all; and they aren't responsible for defensive breakdowns or a great special teams play by the opponent, and stuff like that. Regardless, think about what percentage you consider would be the minimum for any QB to meet if they were elite. 35% of 4th quarter comeback attempts against winning teams needed to be elite? 53%? Whatever that number is, think about it compared to what that number is for Aaron Rodgers, posted below.











    ***NO PEEKING*** :)













    Image

    Here's the pic linked in that Tweet, the proof:

    Image


    Kearly, Scotte, Absolut, and other NFL minds of the forum; are you guys as blown away by this as I am? I'm flabbergasted. It makes me smile, considering how much of an "NFL Golden Boy" Rodgers is, too; not going to lie. Russell Wilson already has four 4th-quarter comebacks including the playoffs, and all four were against winning teams! http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... r=WilsRu00

    What does this say about Aaron Rodgers when the pressure is really on?
    .


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  • Sarlacc83 wrote:I imagine if this is something that can be proved, it's connected with the zero run game approach of Green Bay. When you don't even have to cover a running back in crunch time, you can devote all your resources to the nickel or the dime.


    I think you nailed it sarlacc. All teams have to do is put in a bunch of DBs and rush the passer because the GB O Line suxors.
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