AFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 16]

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AFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 16]
Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:56 pm
  • Hello Everyone,

    Ugh, it would seem the Grinch came in and stole Seattle's Christmas in Week 15. Not only did Seattle lose unexpectedly, but almost everything that could go wrong in week 15 for Seattle, did. Thank goodness the Saints won which kept the week from being a total disaster. To help wash out the bad taste, we have the new playoff scenarios for week 16 and thinks are looking very well indeed. As always I will discuss the AFC scenarios here and discuss the corresponding NFC scenarios in a companion article in the main forum under NFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 16]. As before, I will use the following symbols:
    *--Home Field Advantage
    z--First Round Bye
    y--Division Winner
    x--Playoff Spot
    (e)--Eliminated
    As before I will sometimes follow such a symbol with a number to reflect a specific seed if applicable. With all that said, let's dig in.

    AFC East
    This is still the New England Patriot's division but they are having problems wrapping it up and it's hurting them in the overall AFC playoff picture. Miami is still in it for a playoff spot but a lot of things would have to go right. Everyone else is eliminated.

    Name Record Conf. Div. Last Two
    New England 9-5 6-4 3-1 Buffalo, NY Jets
    Miami 7-7 6-4 4-1 Jacksonville, @Buffalo
    Buffalo (e) 5-9 3-7 1-3 @New England, Miami
    NY Jets (e) 4-10 3-8 1-4 Green Bay, @New England

    Clinching Scenarios: New England can clinch the AFC East with 1) A win 2) a Miami loss. There are no other clinching scenarios.

    Elimination Scenarios: New England is eliminated from a first round bye with a LOSS + Houston Win. Miami is eliminated from the AFC East with a loss or New England win (see above). Miami is eliminated from the playoffs with:

    1) A win by Tenn + Indy + Baltimore
    2) A loss AND a win by any of the following: Baltimore OR Indy OR Tenn

    AFC North
    Pittsburgh is holding on to this division by her fingernails, but the AFC North is still wide open.

    Name Record Conf. Div. Last Two
    Pittsburgh 8-5-1 5-5-1 3-1-1 @New Orleans, Cincinnati
    Baltimore 8-6 6-4 2-3 @LA Chargers, Cleveland
    Cleveland 6-7-1 4-5-1 2-1-1 Cincinnati, @Baltimore
    Cincinnati (e) 6-8 4-6 1-3 @Cleveland, @Pittsburgh

    Clinching Scenarios: Pittsburgh can clinch the AFC North with a win AND a Baltimore loss (remember that the Pittsburgh tie counts as half a win). Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a loss by Indy, Tenn, and Miami. Likewise Baltimore can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a loss by Indy, Tenn, and Miami.

    Elimination Scenarios: Cleveland is eliminated from the AFC North with win by either Baltimore or Pittsburgh. Baltimore is eliminated from the AFC North with a loss and a Pittsburgh win (see above). Cleveland is eliminated from the playoffs with:

    1) A Loss
    2) A win by Baltimore, Indy, or Tenn

    AFC South
    The Houston Texans are in the driver's seat and have a real shot as the first week bye, but haven't quite clinched. Indy and Tenn are trying to get that final wildcard spot against Baltimore.

    Name Record Conf. Div. Last Two
    Houston 10-4 8-3 3-2 @Philadelphia, Jacksonville
    Indy 8-6 6-5 3-2 NY Giants, @Tenn
    Tenn 8-6 5-6 3-2 Washington, Indy
    Jacksonville (e) 4-10 3-7 1-4 @Miami, @Houston

    Clinching Scenarios: Houston clinches the AFC South with a win OR Indy + Tenn loss.

    Elimination Scenarios: Indy and Tenn are both eliminated from the AFC South with a loss. They are both eliminated from the playoffs altogether with a loss and a Baltimore win.

    AFC West
    Kansas City currently leads this division due to a division record tiebreak against the LA Chargers, but both Kansas City and the LA Chargers are in the playoffs and the race for the division is going down to the wire. Not only that but both the LA Chargers (Baltimore) and Kansas City (@Seattle) are facing very difficult opponents this week. Stay tuned! Everyone else in this division has been eliminated.

    Name Record Conf. Div. Last Two
    Kansas City-x 11-3 9-3 4-1 @Seattle, Oakland
    LA Chargers-x 11-3 8-2 3-2 Baltimore, @Denver
    Denver (e) 6-8 4-6 2-2 @Oakland, LA Chargers
    Oakland (e) 3-11 2-8 0-4 Denver, @Kansas City

    Clinching Scenarios:
    Kansas City can clinch Home Field Advantage with: A Win + A Houston loss Edit: + LA Charger loss
    Kansas City can clinch a first round bye (and AFC West) with a win. Edit: + LA Charger loss
    Hat Tip: HawkGA

    Elimination Scenarios: LA Chargers can be eliminated from the AFC West with a [edit] Loss [/edit] and a Kansas City win.

    *whew* I hope this is useful.
    Last edited by Polaris on Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
    Polaris
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Re: AFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 16]
Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:23 am
  • Check your KC clinching scenarios. They have to be able to clinch the division to secure HFA or a bye.
    HawkGA
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Re: AFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 16]
Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:01 am
  • HawkGA wrote:Check your KC clinching scenarios. They have to be able to clinch the division to secure HFA or a bye.


    You're right. I need to include a Charger loss. I will amend.
    Polaris
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