By popular request, I am submitting an in-depth AFC Playoff picture for week 16. Since Seattle is (obviously) in the NFC, this is going in NFL Nation. However, if you would like to see my NFC Analysis for week 16, you can see it in the Net Nation Forums or simply go HERE
Like my other NFC Playoff posts, I will be using the following symbols: * means clinched Home Field, z means clinched a first week bye, y means clinched the division, x means clinched a playoff spot of any sort, and e means the team has been eliminated. Sometimes I'll put a number after a letter. That reflects the minimum seed that has been clinched if appropriate (and not already obvious).
Let's start with the AFC East.
AFC East
New England (z) 12-2 (9-1 conf) Remaining Games: @NY Jets, @Miami
NY Jets 9-5 (6-4 conf) Remaining Games: New England, @Buff
Buffalo (e) 6-8 (6-5 conf) Remaining Games: Dallas, NY Jets
Miami (e) 5-9 (3-7 conf) Remaining Games: Indy, New England
Obviously New England is complete command of this division and really the entire conference. The NY Jets are in the uncomfortable position of hoping for the two hottest teams in the NFC (KC, Pitt) to lose and for them to win out.
Clinching Scenarios: Obviously with a Denver loss today, New England can't be worse than the #2 seed (because Denver and Cincy play each other). CIncy loses the tiebreak with New England based on common opponents. Denver wins the tiebreak with New England based on head to head. That leads to the one clinching scenario in the AFC East.
New England clinches Home field with:
A win. Why? New England's magic number to clinch the top seed is really 1.5 but remember that Cincy and Denver play each other, and that will automatically knock one of them out of the running for the top seed. If New England wins as well, the best Cincy could do is tie (at 13-3 each) and Cincy loses that tie by common opponents, while Denver would be unable to reach 13 wins.
Elimination Scenarios: There is one elimination scenario for the AFC East, the NY Jets but it's surprisingly difficult. That's because Pitt has the edge on the Jets right now due to common opponents (3-1 vs 2-2) but the week 17 opponents of both of them are common (Buff for the Jets and Cleveland for Pitt) so the Jets could get this tiebreak. However, if Denver wins (or ties), [along with a Jets loss and both Pitt and KC win], then Denver can't be part of a three way tie with the Jets and Pitt that could get the Jets into the playoffs in spit of losing a tiebreak with Pitt head to head.
Thus:
The NY Jets are eliminated from the playoffs with:
A Loss+Pitt Win+KC Win+Denver win (or tie)
Now let's move on the a much more interesting Division, the AFC North:
AFC North
Cincinnati (x) 11-3 (8-2 conf) Remaining Opponents: @Denver, Baltimore
Pittsburgh 9-5 (6-4 conf) Remaining Opponents: @Baltimore, @Cleveland
Baltimore (e) 4-10 (3-7 conf) Remaining Opponents: Pittsburgh, @Cincy
Cleveland (e) 3-11 (2-8 conf) Remaining Opponents: @KC, Pittsburgh
A few weeks ago, Cincy was in the clear driver's seat. Not so much any more, but Cincy is still the clear front-runner, but Pittsburgh is coming on very strong.
Clinching Scenarios: There are a LOT of them in the AFC North. Cincy currently has a two game lead on Pitt with two games to go, but Pitt will win the tiebreaks with Cincy. This is why Cincy has clinched a playoff spot but NOT the division. Likewise Cincy still has a shot at a first week bye and even an outside shot at home field advantage especially with Denver now having issues. So with all that said, here are the AFC North Clinching Scenarios:
Cincy clinches a first week bye (and obviously the division) with:
A win or a tie This should be clear enough. Obviously a win or tie puts Cincy out of reach of Pittsburgh for the division. It also would inflict a loss (or tie) on Denver meaning they would also be unable to catch either Cincy or New England in week 17. This combination insures no worse than the #2 seed.
Cincy cinches the division with:
A Cincy Win (or tie) see above OR Pittsburgh Loss (or tie) This would not clinch a first week bye but would put Pittsburgh out of reach insuring a backdoor entrance to the division crown.
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:
Pittsburgh Win + NY Jets loss Interestingly this doesn't quite eliminate the NY Jets, but it does insure that whatever tiebreaks happen to get the Jets in, also permit Pittsburgh to get in. The most notorious scenario involves a Denver elimination
*whew*
Now let's move on to the AFC West (leaving the wacky AFC South for last):
AFC West
Denver 10-4 (6-4 conf) Remaining Games: Cincy, San Diego
Kansas City 9-5 (8-2 conf) Remaining Games: Cleveland, Oakland
Oakland (e) 6-8 (6-4 conf) Remaining Games: San Diego, @KC
San Diego (e) 4-10 (3-7 conf) Remaining Games: @Oakland, @Denver
Not so long ago, this division looked to be Denver's personal playground. Not any more. Kansas City is on a tear and Denver is suddenly struggling. There is a very real possibility that Denver might lose this division to KC, and there is even an outside (but growing) possibility that Denver might actually lose a multi-team tiebreak in week 17 and be out of the playoffs entirely! (It's one way both Pitt and the Jets can make the playoffs). That particular picture should be much clearer going into week 17.
Clinching Scenarios: With all the above said, this division (and a possible first week bye) are still very much Denver's to lose and Denver controls it's own destiny for the division and #2 seed. KC controls it's own destiny for a Wildcard spot.It turns out it's impossible for KC to avoid in week 16 a possible logjam that could keep it out of the playoffs, so there are no clinching scenarios for KC. [Edit: It turns out that KC can cinch a playoff spot in week 16 on further review.] However there are a couple for Denver.
Denver clinches the AFC West with:
Denver win (or tie) + KC loss [OR Denver tie and KC loss or tie] This should be straightforward enough as this puts Denver out of reach of KC.
Denver clinches a playoff spot with:
A Denver win (or tie) + {Pitt loss OR NY Jets Loss} [or a Denver win + {Pitt loss or tie OR Jets loss or tie} This looks really arcane and it is. Basically if Denver gets involved with a three way tie with Pittsburgh AND the NY Jets, Denver would be eliminated. It's the only way that Denver can be booted from playoff contention and this scenario insures that this can't happen even if Denver fails to win the division.
Addendum: On further review, KC can clinch a playoff spot in the following ways. KC clinches a playoff spot if any ONE of the following things happen:
1. KC win + NY Jets loss
2. KC win + Pittsburgh loss
Why? If either one of these happens, it puts KC one win above any potential logjam for the final wildcard spot because it gives KC a crucial two game lead with one game to go against one of the possible 'logjam' teams. That along with KC's superior head to head tiebreakers insures that KC gets in.
Elimination Scenarios: There are no elimination scenarios in the AFC Westfor the same reason that KC can't clinch in week 16 either. Stay tuned.
Now let's move on the the weird and wacky.....AFC South:
AFC South
Houston 7-7 (5-5 conf) Remaining Games: @Titans, Jax
Indy 6-8 (4-6 conf) Remaining Games: @Miami, Titans
Jacksonville 5-9 (5-6 conf) Remaining Games: @New Orleans, @Houston
Titans (e) 3-11 (1-9 conf) Remaining Games: Houston, @Indy
What's that smell.....oh it's the AFC South. I thought the NFC East was putrid, but man oh man...... Like the NFC East, there is no possible way that ANY AFC South team can reach the 9 win floor to qualify for the AFC Wildcard save Houston and that would win the division for them outright. Houston is clearly in control of the division thanks to it's rare win against Indy at Indy, but the division is far from settled with even lowly Jacksonville still having an outside shot.
Clinching Scenarios: The most obvious (and only) clinching scenarios involve Houston clinching the AFC South title and it's possible to do that outright by record OR by a weird and wacky SOV between Houston and Indy (shades of when we were talking about a possible SoV Arizona-Seattle tiebreak). Without further ado, here is the AFC South (singular) clinching scenario:
Houston wins the division title (and eliminates all other AFC South teams) with any ONE of the following:
1. A Houston win or tie + Indy loss [or Houston win +Indy loss or tie]
2. A Houston win + Cincy win + ONE Win from the following {New Orleans week 15, New Orleans week 16, Jets, Carolina}
3. A Houston win+Cincy tie + TWO wins from (see above)
4. A Houston win + THREE Wins from {see above}
Weird right? Well the first should be obvious enough, but 2-4 involve Houston automatically winning the Strength of Victory tiebreak with a potentially tying Indy team. If Houston wins, the best Indy can do is tie, and if Houston has the SoV tiebreak in its back pocket, Houston clinches the division.
Elimination Scenario: There are two elimination scenarios. ALL AFC Teams save Houston will be eliminated from the playoffs if Houston clinches (see above). However, Jacksonville can still be eliminated even if Houston doesn't clinch. That's because Jacksonville's sole path to the AFC South title involves winning out and having Houston losing it's next game AND Indy losing to the Titans in week 17. This would create a 7-9 logjam and Jacksonville would emerge as division winner. Anything that stops that from happening eliminates Jacksonville. Thus:
Jacksonville is eliminated if:
Jacksonville loses (or ties) OR Houston wins (or ties)
*whew*
I hope you all enjoyed this and found it helpful.
Like my other NFC Playoff posts, I will be using the following symbols: * means clinched Home Field, z means clinched a first week bye, y means clinched the division, x means clinched a playoff spot of any sort, and e means the team has been eliminated. Sometimes I'll put a number after a letter. That reflects the minimum seed that has been clinched if appropriate (and not already obvious).
Let's start with the AFC East.
AFC East
New England (z) 12-2 (9-1 conf) Remaining Games: @NY Jets, @Miami
NY Jets 9-5 (6-4 conf) Remaining Games: New England, @Buff
Buffalo (e) 6-8 (6-5 conf) Remaining Games: Dallas, NY Jets
Miami (e) 5-9 (3-7 conf) Remaining Games: Indy, New England
Obviously New England is complete command of this division and really the entire conference. The NY Jets are in the uncomfortable position of hoping for the two hottest teams in the NFC (KC, Pitt) to lose and for them to win out.
Clinching Scenarios: Obviously with a Denver loss today, New England can't be worse than the #2 seed (because Denver and Cincy play each other). CIncy loses the tiebreak with New England based on common opponents. Denver wins the tiebreak with New England based on head to head. That leads to the one clinching scenario in the AFC East.
New England clinches Home field with:
A win. Why? New England's magic number to clinch the top seed is really 1.5 but remember that Cincy and Denver play each other, and that will automatically knock one of them out of the running for the top seed. If New England wins as well, the best Cincy could do is tie (at 13-3 each) and Cincy loses that tie by common opponents, while Denver would be unable to reach 13 wins.
Elimination Scenarios: There is one elimination scenario for the AFC East, the NY Jets but it's surprisingly difficult. That's because Pitt has the edge on the Jets right now due to common opponents (3-1 vs 2-2) but the week 17 opponents of both of them are common (Buff for the Jets and Cleveland for Pitt) so the Jets could get this tiebreak. However, if Denver wins (or ties), [along with a Jets loss and both Pitt and KC win], then Denver can't be part of a three way tie with the Jets and Pitt that could get the Jets into the playoffs in spit of losing a tiebreak with Pitt head to head.
Thus:
The NY Jets are eliminated from the playoffs with:
A Loss+Pitt Win+KC Win+Denver win (or tie)
Now let's move on the a much more interesting Division, the AFC North:
AFC North
Cincinnati (x) 11-3 (8-2 conf) Remaining Opponents: @Denver, Baltimore
Pittsburgh 9-5 (6-4 conf) Remaining Opponents: @Baltimore, @Cleveland
Baltimore (e) 4-10 (3-7 conf) Remaining Opponents: Pittsburgh, @Cincy
Cleveland (e) 3-11 (2-8 conf) Remaining Opponents: @KC, Pittsburgh
A few weeks ago, Cincy was in the clear driver's seat. Not so much any more, but Cincy is still the clear front-runner, but Pittsburgh is coming on very strong.
Clinching Scenarios: There are a LOT of them in the AFC North. Cincy currently has a two game lead on Pitt with two games to go, but Pitt will win the tiebreaks with Cincy. This is why Cincy has clinched a playoff spot but NOT the division. Likewise Cincy still has a shot at a first week bye and even an outside shot at home field advantage especially with Denver now having issues. So with all that said, here are the AFC North Clinching Scenarios:
Cincy clinches a first week bye (and obviously the division) with:
A win or a tie This should be clear enough. Obviously a win or tie puts Cincy out of reach of Pittsburgh for the division. It also would inflict a loss (or tie) on Denver meaning they would also be unable to catch either Cincy or New England in week 17. This combination insures no worse than the #2 seed.
Cincy cinches the division with:
A Cincy Win (or tie) see above OR Pittsburgh Loss (or tie) This would not clinch a first week bye but would put Pittsburgh out of reach insuring a backdoor entrance to the division crown.
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:
Pittsburgh Win + NY Jets loss Interestingly this doesn't quite eliminate the NY Jets, but it does insure that whatever tiebreaks happen to get the Jets in, also permit Pittsburgh to get in. The most notorious scenario involves a Denver elimination
*whew*
Now let's move on to the AFC West (leaving the wacky AFC South for last):
AFC West
Denver 10-4 (6-4 conf) Remaining Games: Cincy, San Diego
Kansas City 9-5 (8-2 conf) Remaining Games: Cleveland, Oakland
Oakland (e) 6-8 (6-4 conf) Remaining Games: San Diego, @KC
San Diego (e) 4-10 (3-7 conf) Remaining Games: @Oakland, @Denver
Not so long ago, this division looked to be Denver's personal playground. Not any more. Kansas City is on a tear and Denver is suddenly struggling. There is a very real possibility that Denver might lose this division to KC, and there is even an outside (but growing) possibility that Denver might actually lose a multi-team tiebreak in week 17 and be out of the playoffs entirely! (It's one way both Pitt and the Jets can make the playoffs). That particular picture should be much clearer going into week 17.
Clinching Scenarios: With all the above said, this division (and a possible first week bye) are still very much Denver's to lose and Denver controls it's own destiny for the division and #2 seed. KC controls it's own destiny for a Wildcard spot.
Denver clinches the AFC West with:
Denver win (or tie) + KC loss [OR Denver tie and KC loss or tie] This should be straightforward enough as this puts Denver out of reach of KC.
Denver clinches a playoff spot with:
A Denver win (or tie) + {Pitt loss OR NY Jets Loss} [or a Denver win + {Pitt loss or tie OR Jets loss or tie} This looks really arcane and it is. Basically if Denver gets involved with a three way tie with Pittsburgh AND the NY Jets, Denver would be eliminated. It's the only way that Denver can be booted from playoff contention and this scenario insures that this can't happen even if Denver fails to win the division.
Addendum: On further review, KC can clinch a playoff spot in the following ways. KC clinches a playoff spot if any ONE of the following things happen:
1. KC win + NY Jets loss
2. KC win + Pittsburgh loss
Why? If either one of these happens, it puts KC one win above any potential logjam for the final wildcard spot because it gives KC a crucial two game lead with one game to go against one of the possible 'logjam' teams. That along with KC's superior head to head tiebreakers insures that KC gets in.
Elimination Scenarios: There are no elimination scenarios in the AFC West
Now let's move on the the weird and wacky.....AFC South:
AFC South
Houston 7-7 (5-5 conf) Remaining Games: @Titans, Jax
Indy 6-8 (4-6 conf) Remaining Games: @Miami, Titans
Jacksonville 5-9 (5-6 conf) Remaining Games: @New Orleans, @Houston
Titans (e) 3-11 (1-9 conf) Remaining Games: Houston, @Indy
What's that smell.....oh it's the AFC South. I thought the NFC East was putrid, but man oh man...... Like the NFC East, there is no possible way that ANY AFC South team can reach the 9 win floor to qualify for the AFC Wildcard save Houston and that would win the division for them outright. Houston is clearly in control of the division thanks to it's rare win against Indy at Indy, but the division is far from settled with even lowly Jacksonville still having an outside shot.
Clinching Scenarios: The most obvious (and only) clinching scenarios involve Houston clinching the AFC South title and it's possible to do that outright by record OR by a weird and wacky SOV between Houston and Indy (shades of when we were talking about a possible SoV Arizona-Seattle tiebreak). Without further ado, here is the AFC South (singular) clinching scenario:
Houston wins the division title (and eliminates all other AFC South teams) with any ONE of the following:
1. A Houston win or tie + Indy loss [or Houston win +Indy loss or tie]
2. A Houston win + Cincy win + ONE Win from the following {New Orleans week 15, New Orleans week 16, Jets, Carolina}
3. A Houston win+Cincy tie + TWO wins from (see above)
4. A Houston win + THREE Wins from {see above}
Weird right? Well the first should be obvious enough, but 2-4 involve Houston automatically winning the Strength of Victory tiebreak with a potentially tying Indy team. If Houston wins, the best Indy can do is tie, and if Houston has the SoV tiebreak in its back pocket, Houston clinches the division.
Elimination Scenario: There are two elimination scenarios. ALL AFC Teams save Houston will be eliminated from the playoffs if Houston clinches (see above). However, Jacksonville can still be eliminated even if Houston doesn't clinch. That's because Jacksonville's sole path to the AFC South title involves winning out and having Houston losing it's next game AND Indy losing to the Titans in week 17. This would create a 7-9 logjam and Jacksonville would emerge as division winner. Anything that stops that from happening eliminates Jacksonville. Thus:
Jacksonville is eliminated if:
Jacksonville loses (or ties) OR Houston wins (or ties)
*whew*
I hope you all enjoyed this and found it helpful.
