The Approximate Value (AV) of Seattle's roster 2011-present

SalishHawkFan

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Pro Football Reference rates each player based upon Approximate Value. I decided to take Seattle's starting roster for each year from 2011 to today and compare them. This may give us some insight into how this team can be projected to stand up to the previous four seasons. I separate each unit into groups. The offense is divvied up into the Oline, the WR's (TE) and the RB/QB. The defense is divvied up into the secondary, LBers and dline.

2011:
Oline: 28
WR's: 9
RB/QB: 18
Total Offense: 55
Secondary: 36
LBers: 25
Dline: 35
Total Defense: 96
Total Team: 151:

2012:
Oline: 36
WR's: 26
RB/QB: 31
Total Offense: 93
Secondary: 43
LBers: 26
Dline: 37
Total Defense: 106
Total Team: 199

2013:
Oline: 36
WR's: 25
RB/QB: 28
Total Offense: 89
Secondary: 47
LBers: 33
Dline: 33
Total Defense: 113
Total Team: 202

2014:
Oline: 38
WR's: 22
RB/QB: 32
Total Offense: 92
Secondary: 42
LBers: 31
Dline: 33
Total Defense: 106
Total Team: 198

projected 2015:
Oline: 29
WR's: 27
RB/QB: 32
Total Offense: 88
Secondary: 43
LBers: 31
Dline: 34
Total Defense: 108
Total Team: 196

Oline raw number may be a bit misleading. There are five players on the oline, making it the largest group rated. This season will see our worst oline ever.

Just to give you guys some perspective. Here are some other NFL teams:

2014 New England Patriots:
Oline: 41
WR's: 35
RB/QB: 19
Total Offense: 95
Secondary: 28
LBers: 20
Dline: 26
Total Defense: 74
Total Team: 169

2013 Denver Broncos
Oline: 59
WR's: 43
RB/QB: 32
Total Offense: 134
Secondary: 22
LBers: 19
Dline: 25
Total Defense: 66
Total Team: 200

Compare Denver's defense to this crappy teams defense:

2014 Buccaneers (2-14)
Oline: 28
WR's: 19
RB/QB: 7
Total Offense: 54
Secondary: 22
LBers: 16
Dline: 25
Total Defense: 63
Total Team: 117

And because you asked - you know you did:
1985 Chicago Bears
Oline: 49
WR's: 20
RB/QB: 37
Total Offense: 106
Secondary: 42
LBers: 41
Dline: 56
Total Defense: 139
Total Team: 245
 
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SalishHawkFan

SalishHawkFan

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Here's the NFC West forecast, based upon today's depth charts. In cases of players who missed significant time last year due to injury, their forecasted value was based upon their recent healthy year. For rookies, the AV was 3 unless they were a 1st round draft choice or Frank Clark, then they got a 6. Bear in mind that a 4-3 defense and a 3-4 defense will have different values so just compare front 7's.

Arizona Cardinals
Oline: 31
WR's: 16
RB/QB:15
Total Offense: 62
Secondary: 23
LBers: 18
Dline: 22
Total Defense: 63
Total Team:125

San Francisco 49ers
Oline: 30
WR's: 18
RB/QB:14
Total Offense:62
Secondary: 22
LBers: 35
Dline: 7
Total Defense: 64
Total Team:126

St. Louis Rams
Oline: 20
WR's: 18
RB/QB: 15
Total Offense: 53
Secondary: 24
LBers: 24
Dline: 35
Total Defense: 83
Total Team: 136

And of course, I'll repeat the Seahawks forecast here:
Oline: 29
WR's: 27
RB/QB: 32
Total Offense: 88
Secondary: 43
LBers: 31
Dline: 34
Total Defense: 108
Total Team: 196
 
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SalishHawkFan

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Our nemesis, the Green Bay Packers, are loaded on offense, but their defense? let's hope we don't make their defense look spectacular again.

Green Bay Packers
Oline: 55
WR's: 43
RB/QB: 37
Total Offense: 135
Secondary: 18
LBers: 28
Dline: 16
Total Defense: 62
Total Team: 197

Here's Dallas. These two teams give an indication of what a Oline should rate. Not in the 30's, that's for sure.

Dallas Cowboys
Oline: 52
WR's: 30
RB/QB: 19
Total Offense: 101
Secondary: 24
LBers: 12
Dline: 21
Total Defense: 57
Total Team: 158
 

Maulbert

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Threedee":1eny08y1 said:
How was our NOline slightly better last year than in 2013?

Probably because we had 600 more yards of offense in 2014 than 2013. Most of it rushing. We had the #1 rushing offense last season, beating Dallas by almost 400 yards.
 
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SalishHawkFan

SalishHawkFan

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Updated projections with new oline and Kam holdout:

projected 2015:
Oline: 30
WR's: 27
RB/QB: 32
Total Offense: 89
Secondary: 37
LBers: 31
Dline: 34
Total Defense: 102
Total Team: 191

Nowak projects to be slightly better than replacement level. Bailey does not. If the LBers continue to play crappy, then that will decline the defense even further, but as it stands, without Kam, this is projected to be the worst defense in the Wilson era and with Kam it could be projected to be our second best.
 
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SalishHawkFan

SalishHawkFan

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Projected based upon AV so far this season:

projected 2015:
Oline: 23
WR's: 27
RB/QB: 32
Total Offense: 82
Secondary: 43
LBers: 31
Dline: 34
Total Defense: 108
Total Team: 196

Quite possibly the least skilled offensive line in Seahawks history.
 

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