My money is where my mouth is...

StoneCold

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Fumbgertw amreger dug gakmbler..Hmm, better take it out so I can talk. I just put my bet down on the Hawks to repete as Super Bowl winners. Anyone else feeling lucky?

SC
 

Lxx

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Last year i felt really confident.
Not as confident this year due to the 2nd half of the schedule
 
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StoneCold

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Part of it is confidence and part is when will I get a chance to make this kind of bet. I'm surprised there aren't a few more.
 

Cartire

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I do per game bets. Have never done the Super Bowl bet. If I did, I would be out so much money because I would always put it on the Hawks.
 

HawkWow

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Depends on whether or not the bettor is getting true odds on the action.

But I do give us a better chance than anyone else. I refuse to consider the "no team since...." crap. "No team since...." was not the youngest champion in history...one that should be much improved from the previous year. I think you have to look at the situation individually and dismiss historical data when contemplating a team like our GREAT GOD ALMIGHTY Seattle Seahawks.
 

nsport

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When I ran my handicapping service I never recommended these bets... a lot has to go right over a long period to win them. That being said, when the emotions are in it, and it's most definitely a top 3 team in this league, that's pretty good scratch coming back.

On the flip side, there are lots of intangibles for the Hawks that bettors love... we cover at home, we were good road dogs last year, etc. Not like the old Holmgren first-half blowouts only to see conservative play calling bring it back to a single score game.

This team is good enough to do it - I believe it. Might as well make the season fun. Another .NETter starts hedging his bet the closer the bet comes to payoff. Which is also a good strategy if you play it right!

Good luck!
 

HawkWow

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I assume you created your own lines, found weakness' in Vegas', then sold your picks?

We did that for quite some time before deciding it was just too competitive. We ultimately bankrolled our own operation and took all bets ourselves. That's the way to go (until the IRS decides they want to partner up with you).

I no longer bet. The advice I give others is just that...don't bet.
 
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StoneCold

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This bet is only $50 and is pure emotion. Well maybe there's a bit of logic in it as well. I wouldn't normally make this bet, but the Hawks looked so good last year and have retained the core of the team that I truly think they have the best chance at repeating than any team since the Pats did it. But I'm really doing this as a homer bet. :)

Go Hawks!

SC
 

PGunning101

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I also did a pure emotion bet on the Hawks to repeat while I was at the Wynn in Vegas last weekend.

Money where my mouth is!
 

5280Hawk

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I know lot of people last year that put $ down at the beginning of the season for the Broncos to win the SB.

Imagine how that went over!!! HAHAHA
 
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StoneCold

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While it didn't work out in the end it was probably pretty damn fun for the entire year. If I get that kind of run out of my $50 bucks this year it will be entertainment money well spent.

SC
 

Melencause

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Lxx":fkwubvek said:
Last year i felt really confident.
Not as confident this year due to the 2nd half of the schedule

I don't know with what is happening/has happened to the Rams/Cards/49ers the second half isn't looking all that bad.
 

SonomaHawk

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HawkWow":1bpsdgph said:
I assume you created your own lines, found weakness' in Vegas', then sold your picks?

We did that for quite some time before deciding it was just too competitive. We ultimately bankrolled our own operation and took all bets ourselves. That's the way to go (until the IRS decides they want to partner up with you).

I no longer bet. The advice I give others is just that...don't bet.

I am curious -- has anybody developed a true market for existing bets that can be bought or sold prior to payoff? In other words, say I think the Jags are undervalued-- I can bet Jags to make the playoffs at +800 at bovada right now (I actually have done this for a very small wager). If they are 5-5 down the road in a week division, that might move to +400. Assuming there is someone out there who might want that bet, why can't I sell it to them, and pocket the difference?

I know the sportsbooks wouldn't want to do this because it would reduce the net action they get-- but why not some entrepreneur?
 
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StoneCold

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5280Hawk":20ykcndd said:
I hope you win!

what odds did you get?

5-1. I bet it goes down after we thump Greenbay. :)

Go Hawks!
 

grizbob

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If you LITERALLY want to put your money where your mouth is donate to the board ;)
 

Cartire

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StoneCold":3ih8u2k7 said:
5280Hawk":3ih8u2k7 said:
I hope you win!

what odds did you get?

5-1. I bet it goes down after we thump Greenbay. :)

Go Hawks!

A few books have already moved it to 9/2.
 

SonomaHawk

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StoneCold":2ou5c0mw said:
what odds did you get?

5-1. I bet it goes down after we thump Greenbay. :)

Go Hawks![/quote]

I looked at Bovada when you wrote that because I recall seeing it lower back earlier in the summer. I was shocked to see Bovada actually have it at 6/1 as of yesterday afternoon. I checked in again this morning.... 4/1.

I think you've got a great bet.
 

nsport

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HawkWow":2myzqil3 said:
I assume you created your own lines, found weakness' in Vegas', then sold your picks?

We did that for quite some time before deciding it was just too competitive. We ultimately bankrolled our own operation and took all bets ourselves. That's the way to go (until the IRS decides they want to partner up with you).

I no longer bet. The advice I give others is just that...don't bet.

I don't bet anymore either. Just not worth the stress for the money. But yes, we'd do our own analysis, look for weaknesses and send those picks out with a 1 to 5 star system. A bettor would decide their unit (say $20) - if it was a 5 star, they'd bet ATS to net 5 X $20 (typically -110 for a line bet so laying $110 to win $100). At the end of the season we were always way ahead on units.

The key to any sports betting is not to put the eggs in one basket (like loading up on one game), be patient (bet around, wait for real opportunities, not the national game on TV), NEVER use parlays, "let it ride, or round robin bets, and use a money management system (A $5k bankroll with $50-100 unit betting is a pretty solid bankroll - we'd try to be sure you were up 2-6 units per week) which puts you at hopefully doubling your money in 4 months (length of the football season).

...and bankrolling your own system? That sounds pretty not-so-legal... :)
 

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