Did Russell Wilson Save Pete Carroll's Job?

Now don't get me wrong here, I love Pete as a coach and think he would have eventually found great success in the NFL. I was made a believer following the 2010 game in Seattle vs. Baltimore.

But riddle me this....

-Without stealing Russ in the 2012 draft, we would have been looking at Matt Flynn as our starting quarterback.
-Russ had 5 game winning drives in 2012. 5! - How many do we actually think Flynn could have had?
-Pete went 7-9 his first two seasons.
-In 2012 we went 11-5, but at least two of those wins were 99% on the shoulders of Russ - Chicago and New England (not to mention the miracle vs. Green Bay)
- In 2012 a 9-7 finish would have likely left us out of the playoffs.
- That would likely would have made 2013 as a make or break year for Pete, and with the NFC West as tough as it was, and Flynn>Russ at the helm, there's a good chance we miss out on playoffs again... where would that have left Pete? On the hot seat to say the least.

Now I know Pete is responsible for developing our world class defense, but he's never really been seen as an offensive wizard. It takes a special (and cerebral!) QB for Pete to feel comfortable going beyond a play-it-safe, ball-control style offense. We had a pretty stagnant offense for 2010 and 2011 and even half of 2012. Russ allowed us to go over the top. WIthout him I feel that perhaps we might not be nearly as successful, and only viewed as a defensive team with a lot of heart. But defense alone doesn't get you to the top. In 2011 the Steelers were by far the best defense in the league, but only finished with an 8-8 record. Without Russ I think we may have seen the Seahawks hover around .500 for the last couple years as we continued searching for a true franchise QB (sorry Flynn). And, if that was the case, I think Pete would definitely be anxious about his job security.

So on the eve of our 2014 title defense, what say ye Hawks fans? Did Russ save Pete's job?

Save? No. The defense has nothing to do with Russ.

However, Wilson certainly made Pete's extension an inevitability.

Nah I don't think so. Even in those 7-9 seasons, Stevie Wonder could see where the team was headed

-The Glove-":2aafn30d said:

Nah I don't think so. Even in those 7-9 seasons, Stevie Wonder could see where the team was headed

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And he's not even a football fan.

No. Wilson was the championship piece and the guy who would help Carroll cement his legacy as Mr. "Big Balls" and a guy who operated outside conventional wisdom (e.g. the decision to start Wilson over Flynn).

But if you followed along in 2011, you saw the progress the team was making (even if that wasn't reflected in the record). We went from a team of old, soft, slow scrubs to something that was starting to look pretty bad-ass. Everyone who paid attention in 2011 knew Pete was starting to build something special.

In fact, the big criticism that Pete got when he decided to start Wilson in 2012 was that he would be "wasting a championship defense" on a rookie QB. He ended up making those guys look pretty damn silly, but the notion that he was already building a "championship team" was out there before Wilson played a snap.

Seattle finished 2011 with a 5-3 record, and 2 of those losses were razor close, while the wins were blowouts. Seattle got better in 2012, so I think they would have probably had a winning season. The way that Tjack was playing in the preseason in 2013, it seriously made me wonder if Seattle might have won 13 games last year with Tjack. He looked like a franchise QB last year, albeit only in low leverage situations.

Do we win a SB without Wilson last year? That's a good debate, I think T-jack the way he was playing would have been capable with the supporting cast, but Wilson is definitely the guy you want in the postseason due to his leadership and clutch ability.

Nice to hear the optimism around here. I think I just am thankful that we are so secure at the QB position. The gulf between someone like Wilson and a journeyman like Flynn is huge.

As you guys were saying we were building a good team, but in 2011 there were a lot of games we could have won, and a great QB would have allowed us to do that.

One of the biggest criticisms of that year was that the defense was on the field too long from the failures of the offense. "The Hawks finished 29th in average time of possession at 28:07 per game. They were 24th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate at 33.77%. 28th in goal-to-go conversions at 52.38%." Wilson improving that probably also improved the defense.

Probably Pete would still have a job, but I think his time would be growing short to build a contender. Without Wilson I don't think we had a championship caliber team.

Defense will keep you in the game, but last I checked you need points to win a game. I think it's safe to say RW as QB vs Matt Flynn easily adds an extra TD every game IMO.

Regular Season games won by a TD or less

2013: 5
2012: 4

I don't think there was any game that RW lost that Matt Flynn would have won as starting QB. I think without RW as QB, we lose at least half of those games won by only a TD or less.

So that would be at best 9-7 in 2012, 11-5 or 10-6 in 2013. I forgot the wildcard scores for both years, but I'm going to assume in at least one case we miss playoffs, either way we don't win a SB, definitely not getting HFA in any of the playoff runs and therefore no deep runs either.

Yeah I think it's safe to say RW saved Pete Caroll's Job.

Feed the Hawk":21fqhbau said:

Probably Pete would still have a job, but I think his time would be growing short to build a contender. Without Wilson I don't think we had a championship caliber team.

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True, but this is a fact of life in the NFL. Everything rides on your QB. Most HOF-type coaches had or have a HOF QB.

If we didn't have Wilson, we'd win less, but you would still be able to see the good things happening elsewhere. It'd be like Arians and Fisher. You can tell those guys are doing a good job, even though their QBs are holding them back. Neither of those guys are getting fired anytime soon barring a complete collapse.

I tend to think if we did not get Wilson we would have either went with Flynn and TJack and then picked up Daniels anyway or made a trade for Wilson if he was bench sitting or possibly went the next year traded for EJ Manuel somehow. We would have got a QB.

kearly":2fzl1dmt said:

Seattle finished 2011 with a 5-3 record, and 2 of those losses were razor close, while the wins were blowouts. Seattle got better in 2012, so I think they would have probably had a winning season. The way that Tjack was playing in the preseason in 2013, it seriously made me wonder if Seattle might have won 13 games last year with Tjack. He looked like a franchise QB last year, albeit only in low leverage situations.

Do we win a SB without Wilson last year? That's a good debate, I think T-jack the way he was playing would have been capable with the supporting cast, but Wilson is definitely the guy you want in the postseason due to his leadership and clutch ability.

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I never minded T-Jack. The dude can actually ball in low-stakes situations. It's his tendency to collapse in the final minutes that really soured him to a lot of people.

He probably could have won ~11 games for us last year. I'm thinking we lose at least the HOU and TB games. I don't think he wins any of the ones that Wilson lost. Does he win the NFC Championship or out duel Drew Brees in adverse conditions? I really doubt it.

I don't think he saved Pete Carroll's job, as definite progress and improvement was shown since he was hired. He most certainly took Pete's vision of a 4-year plan and turned it into a stunning success.

No, I don't think that Carroll's job was in jeopardy in the slightest. In 2010, he was overhauling a moribund roster, and while the Hawks managed 7 wins, their losses were massive blowouts.

In 2011, the Hawks again went 7-9, but it was a completely different team to most close observers. The team found its identity behind Lynch and an ever-improving defense, and they were challenging for a playoff spot deep into the season.

In 2012, Wilson seized the QB spot, but he still dealt with some rookie struggles. I'm not suggesting Flynn would have had the stones to do what Wilson did in Chicago (and later in Atlanta), but I think the team still would have shown signs of progress. Even so, the deal they gave Flynn indicated that they weren't sold on him as a franchise QB, and I imagine Carroll would have continued working to find a QB solution if Flynn was merely average as a starter. I felt that 2013 was going to be the year we drafted our franchise QB, and I'm glad I was wrong in that assessment.

In the end, I think that Wilson's quick development and leadership accelerated Carroll's timeline a bit. I think we're about a year ahead of where we planned to be as far as contender status goes. In any case, I think Carroll's plan was to establish a strong run game and defense, and that would be enough to give the team a shot at the playoffs each year while the search for a franchise QB continued. And I think Carroll's work in developing that kind of team would have been enough to guarantee that he finished his initial contract, absolutely. Getting that extension when he did, well, a lot of that can be attributed to Wilson.

DavidSeven":ewj9zj21 said:

Feed the Hawk":ewj9zj21 said:

Probably Pete would still have a job, but I think his time would be growing short to build a contender. Without Wilson I don't think we had a championship caliber team.

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True, but this is a fact of life in the NFL. Everything rides on your QB. Most HOF-type coaches had or have a HOF QB.

If we didn't have Wilson, we'd win less, but you would still be able to see the good things happening elsewhere. It'd be like Arians and Fisher. You can tell those guys are doing a good job, even though their QBs are holding them back. Neither of those guys are getting fired anytime soon barring a complete collapse.

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Agreed. I think Fisher is a great comparison. But, I do believe Fisher needs to start showing a winning record before too long.

Better question is did John Schneider save Pete's career. Answer is yes.
Although Pete and RW approach the game much the same and lead with infectious optimism these two would not have come together without Schneider ' s vision. You could say RW saved Pete and vice versa but Schneider was the man who convinced Pete that Wilson was the one.

I'd say probably. Although not right away.

If we were middling at 10-6 and 9-7 with annual uncertainty at QB after 4 years, I would expect that Pete would have been on the hot seat. Until Wilson, we were exchanging QBs every year, and the masses would have been restless. But more than that, the whole philosophy of the team build would be in doubt.

It's not hard to imagine that. How loud was the criticism that Pete/John didn't recognize QB talent before Wilson? If we'd have suffered more trades for players of Whitehurst's ilk, or more big UFA contracts for noodle armed QBs like Flynn -- then it would be a major issue. Even now, with a freshly minted Lombardi in the display case, the team is still criticized for it's inability to recognize and acquire OL talent.

It's impossible to know what Seattle would/could have done after getting Wilson. Maybe we take Nick Foles in round 4 of the same draft? Or maybe we take Kirk Cousins and with our coaching and the opportunity, he becomes a credible starting NFL QB? Or we take some guy in last years' draft. Or trade for a journeyman who flashes for a year. There could have been half a dozen or more opportunities to get a QB who could have vaulted us into the 11-5 or better range of club. The fact is, we got Wilson and our search ended with his selection. And he was the guy to stamp legitimacy to the program. It's just not possible to forecast what Seattle could or could not have done to address the position in a bizarro-world Wilsonless state.

In terms of saving a job, you don't need an elite QB. What you need is legitimate hope that you're moving in the right direction. Changing out poor QBs every year without having team success is a rudderless, and hopeless situation. But you can be a team like the 80's Redskins who won 3 SB titles and were competitive with 3+ separate QBs. None of them really HOF worthy.

On the other hand, you could also be the early 2000's Bucs. Dungy was canned in a very similar scenario. Not that it turned out bad for either party. But here was a quality coach with a quality team and a muddied QB situation.

kearly":jihlrmtd said:

Seattle finished 2011 with a 5-3 record, and 2 of those losses were razor close, while the wins were blowouts. Seattle got better in 2012, so I think they would have probably had a winning season. The way that Tjack was playing in the preseason in 2013, it seriously made me wonder if Seattle might have won 13 games last year with Tjack. He looked like a franchise QB last year, albeit only in low leverage situations.

Do we win a SB without Wilson last year? That's a good debate, I think T-jack the way he was playing would have been capable with the supporting cast, but Wilson is definitely the guy you want in the postseason due to his leadership and clutch ability.

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There is too much an assumption that Flynn would have been handed the job over Jackson.
Pretty obvious that Pete stayed true to his word....COMPETE, and I'm not so sure that Flynn would have beaten Jackson out in a head to head competition.
I think Flynn was under the illusion that because he was a backup Quarterback from Packersville, and given a nice fat contract, that he would automatically be the starter....Especially against a Rookie Quarterback.

Russ Willstrong":3enrm1d7 said:

Better question is did John Schneider save Pete's career. Answer is yes.
Although Pete and RW approach the game much the same and lead with infectious optimism these two would not have come together without Schneider ' s vision. You could say RW saved Pete and vice versa but Schneider was the man who convinced Pete that Wilson was the one.

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Pete Carroll is basically acknowledged throughout the NFL circles as the premiere "player development" coach in the league. Make no mistake, Pete has made Schneider look good by developing raw 4th-5th round players into pro bowl talent. Those two guys benefit each other. To view it as a unilaterally beneficial relationship is just plain wrong.

Plus, Pete is the guy who hand-picked John. Whatever successes that John has here is also attributable to Pete's recognition of his talent back when he was largely unknown.

Sigh.

RW definitely hastened along Pete's 5 year plan but did he "save" Pete's job? I think not.

I am pretty sure that PA has a much longer leash than just 4 years in rebuilding. In addition I also believe that with Tjack we still would have been very competitive the last 2 years. Do we still beat NO or the digits last year I cant say but if not RW as QB I am sure that the brain thrust would still have found a QB either last year or this year in the draft.

The lack of having RW may have slowed the SB win but as I said PA is a great owner and Pete and JS have been doing the right thing from the start. Without Russ this may be the year the Hawks would win the SB.

PS: even in the second 7-9 season the team was definitely superior to the 2010 team the changes had already begun to make this team a championship team.

RW helped Pete but didn't save him.