Anthony! wrote:Actually that is in correct he is not in a offense that boosts efficiency, he is in an offense that requires efficiency. For example
If you through 25 times a game and you start 1-10 you have to go 15-15 on the next 15 to get to 64%.
If you through 35 times a game and you start 1-10 you can go 22-25 and get to 64+% so you have more margin for error.
So again less throws means less margin for error. That is not good for efficiency.
You could say through out all the other QBs they are in offenses that throw a lot so they will get a lot of yards, really.
I wasn't basing my argument on throwing volume.
My point was more along the lines that opposing defenses are putting 8 in the box to stop Lynch, while Wilson is throwing most of his passes on play-action when the defense is thinking "run." Seattle led the NFL last season in play-action throw percentage, by a decently large margin, too.
We know this impacts a QBs efficiency. Look at Andrew Luck at Stanford vs. Indy. At Stanford he was in almost the same kind of system Russ is now, and he put up monster passer ratings. At Indy, where he must force more throws and generally faces a defense that is keying on Indy throwing the ball, his efficiency numbers have dropped dramatically.
Alex Smith pre and post Harbaugh is a great example of this as well.
You could also look at Wilson's numbers at NC State (underwhelming throw first team) vs. Wisconsin (overwhelming run first team). Wilson's numbers exploded when he went to Wisconsin because the Badgers were a team that ran the ball to set up the pass instead of vice-versa. Whichever you are feared and do less of, that is where you probably have the best efficiency. Just look at how efficient Detroit and Denver's RBs were last season with teams keying on Manning and Stafford, or Foles and Smith with defenses keying on McCoy and Charles. The smarter teams know how to take advantage how a defense game plans them, and Seattle is one such team.
I don't think this makes Wilson any less awesome as a QB, but if we are grading these QBs fairly who all play in different situations we should take these kind of things into account. Of course, having Luck higher than Wilson is a stretch, but I do think if Luck was our QB his numbers would be pretty close to Wilson's. That said, I agree that Luck is over-rated because of who he is, not because of what he's done.