TDOTSEAHAWK
Active member
Here are some thoughts on how I think this offseason will play out.
Before all the free agency hoopla one thing to keep in mind is increases in salaries which will not be cut:
Percy Harvin 8.5m
Cliff Avril 5.5m
Earl Thomas 2.5m
Kam Chanceloor 2m
Russell Okung 1.7m
Total increases: 20.2m
There are also two free agents who we may not re-sign which would lead to some cap relief.
Paul McQuistan 3.4m
Breno Giacomini 4.8m
Michael Benett 4.8m
I am on the side that we don't re-sign Breno at that kind of money (or at all) based on injuries and us drafting a replacement. I won't add Bennett in as I will discuss him later.
Total Savings: 8.2m
Net Salary Increases 12m
To make this up 2 players will be cut with almost 100% certainty. Cap hit - Dead Money - Net
Chris Clemons 9.7 - 2.2 - 7.5m
Sidney Rice 9.7 - 2.4 - 7.3m
Total net savings 14.8m
Net cap room created 2.8m
Offseason Moves
1a) Michael Bennett
To simplify things for Michael Bennett - his 4.8 million salary is off the books so in order to pay him around 7m next year we just need to add in the net savings from Clemons and Rice to get up to 7.6m. This is why I am basically certain that we will re-sign Bennett if number of years doesn't become the sticking point. So with increases, cutting Rice, Clemons and letting McQuistan and Breno walk - we get to keep Bennett and I am almost certain we keep Bennett.
1b) Earl Thomas extension
Earl is set to have a cap hit of 5.5m this year. Extending him this year would probably keep that number in line and give us the security of Earl for years to come (who I think is more important than Sherman for a number of reasons). As such, an extension for Earl this season, to me, is a no-brainer. It won't cost us a dime and will allow us to better go into negotiations with Sherman and Wilson with greater certainty.
2) Red Bryant
Although a fan favourite, we could save 5.5m by cutting him this year. He will make a roster bonus of 3m sometime in March so we will know for sure by then but I really don't see us paying him, Mebane, Avril and Bennett. I think if we re-sign Bennett - the writing is on the wall for Red and we should know that fairly quickly. We could also trade him but his contract probably would not attract many buyers as he can't rush the passer (and 3-4 ends typically don't make 8m).
Net savings 5.5m
3) Golden Tate
With the extra money from cutting Red Bryant we could certainly re-sign Golden Tate. Whether we should we re-sign Golden Tate is a whole other issue. But I think if we can keep his cap hit between 4-6m/year over 4 years - we should do it. I predict we will get this deal done and a first year cap hit of around 4m (which would go up with time). He is super durable and very underrated.
Cap hit 4m
4) Free agency
So that leaves us 1.5m to play with and our only real glaring need is on the offensive line. We may pick up a veteran tackle but otherwise we won't be big players in free agency.
5) Draft
There are two places I think we draft high this year - OL and TE. We are not going to re-sign some veterans so we will need an injection of talent along the offensive line. We will also be looking to the futures of Zach Miller and Russell Okung who are huge against the cap and may need to be changed in the coming years for extensions for Wilson and Sherman.
6) Sherman extension
A Sherman extension this year could occur if one of two things happen - we don't re-sign Tate or we cut Zach Miller. I don't see either happening as that would leave us too thin on the offensive side of the ball. Moreover, Sherm would be a fairly big cap jump this year - and in the life cycle of the NFL - why pay a guy quicker than you need to? How could his value possibly go up further?
At worst we Franchise Tag him next year. Moreover, I think it would spread our brain trust too thin. I think this is our #1 priority next season and it will be structured with Wilson's looming extension in 2015.
Conclusion
Walk (or cheap re-sign): Giacomini, Mcquistan
Sign: Benett, Tate
Cut: Rice, Clemons, Bryant
Extend: Thomas
Draft: At least one OL and TE early
Before all the free agency hoopla one thing to keep in mind is increases in salaries which will not be cut:
Percy Harvin 8.5m
Cliff Avril 5.5m
Earl Thomas 2.5m
Kam Chanceloor 2m
Russell Okung 1.7m
Total increases: 20.2m
There are also two free agents who we may not re-sign which would lead to some cap relief.
Paul McQuistan 3.4m
Breno Giacomini 4.8m
Michael Benett 4.8m
I am on the side that we don't re-sign Breno at that kind of money (or at all) based on injuries and us drafting a replacement. I won't add Bennett in as I will discuss him later.
Total Savings: 8.2m
Net Salary Increases 12m
To make this up 2 players will be cut with almost 100% certainty. Cap hit - Dead Money - Net
Chris Clemons 9.7 - 2.2 - 7.5m
Sidney Rice 9.7 - 2.4 - 7.3m
Total net savings 14.8m
Net cap room created 2.8m
Offseason Moves
1a) Michael Bennett
To simplify things for Michael Bennett - his 4.8 million salary is off the books so in order to pay him around 7m next year we just need to add in the net savings from Clemons and Rice to get up to 7.6m. This is why I am basically certain that we will re-sign Bennett if number of years doesn't become the sticking point. So with increases, cutting Rice, Clemons and letting McQuistan and Breno walk - we get to keep Bennett and I am almost certain we keep Bennett.
1b) Earl Thomas extension
Earl is set to have a cap hit of 5.5m this year. Extending him this year would probably keep that number in line and give us the security of Earl for years to come (who I think is more important than Sherman for a number of reasons). As such, an extension for Earl this season, to me, is a no-brainer. It won't cost us a dime and will allow us to better go into negotiations with Sherman and Wilson with greater certainty.
2) Red Bryant
Although a fan favourite, we could save 5.5m by cutting him this year. He will make a roster bonus of 3m sometime in March so we will know for sure by then but I really don't see us paying him, Mebane, Avril and Bennett. I think if we re-sign Bennett - the writing is on the wall for Red and we should know that fairly quickly. We could also trade him but his contract probably would not attract many buyers as he can't rush the passer (and 3-4 ends typically don't make 8m).
Net savings 5.5m
3) Golden Tate
With the extra money from cutting Red Bryant we could certainly re-sign Golden Tate. Whether we should we re-sign Golden Tate is a whole other issue. But I think if we can keep his cap hit between 4-6m/year over 4 years - we should do it. I predict we will get this deal done and a first year cap hit of around 4m (which would go up with time). He is super durable and very underrated.
Cap hit 4m
4) Free agency
So that leaves us 1.5m to play with and our only real glaring need is on the offensive line. We may pick up a veteran tackle but otherwise we won't be big players in free agency.
5) Draft
There are two places I think we draft high this year - OL and TE. We are not going to re-sign some veterans so we will need an injection of talent along the offensive line. We will also be looking to the futures of Zach Miller and Russell Okung who are huge against the cap and may need to be changed in the coming years for extensions for Wilson and Sherman.
6) Sherman extension
A Sherman extension this year could occur if one of two things happen - we don't re-sign Tate or we cut Zach Miller. I don't see either happening as that would leave us too thin on the offensive side of the ball. Moreover, Sherm would be a fairly big cap jump this year - and in the life cycle of the NFL - why pay a guy quicker than you need to? How could his value possibly go up further?
At worst we Franchise Tag him next year. Moreover, I think it would spread our brain trust too thin. I think this is our #1 priority next season and it will be structured with Wilson's looming extension in 2015.
Conclusion
Walk (or cheap re-sign): Giacomini, Mcquistan
Sign: Benett, Tate
Cut: Rice, Clemons, Bryant
Extend: Thomas
Draft: At least one OL and TE early
