NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise

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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:41 pm
  • Are any of those "experts" ex-players, or just "journalists"...

    Journalism is dead, BTW.
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:43 pm
  • formido wrote:Even just against the spread those picks are stupid.

    "Ed Salmons, head football oddsmaker at the LVH SuperBook, is convinced the point spread on the NFC Championship Game is short. "

    http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/nfl/ ... es-weather

    Seattle has beat the spread against SF at least the last 3 times in a row and Seattle just capped the second year in row with the best record in the NFL against the spread. Vegas typically underrates Seattle. It's worse against SF with all that money and franchise fame.


    Agreed and that's pretty much what I was saying earlier about San Fran being a "public" team (like the Cowboys). A LOT of dumb money flows into San Fran (and Dallas) simply because they are San Fran and that makes lines more favorable for San Fran than they should be. As you note, even without the San Fran effect, insider "pro" money has done very well with Seattle this year. Seattle has an impressive record against the number (and as I noted earlier actually beat the number vs SF even in SF).
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:04 pm
  • formido wrote:Even just against the spread those picks are stupid.

    "Ed Salmons, head football oddsmaker at the LVH SuperBook, is convinced the point spread on the NFC Championship Game is short. "

    http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/nfl/ ... es-weather

    Seattle has beat the spread against SF at least the last 3 times in a row and Seattle just capped the second year in row with the best record in the NFL against the spread. Vegas typically underrates Seattle. It's worse against SF with all that money and franchise fame.


    Article says basically what I was saying

    "Lay the extra juice to get Seattle at -3, and make a smaller play on the UNDER."

    I myself would wait until Sunday .. cause I think the line will actually go to -3 with all the late Niners money (ESPECIALLY if Percy is out) .. then you can buy that half point to get away from a push.
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:05 pm
  • Missing_Clink wrote:Wow, only Prisco picks the Hawks? That is really going to mess with the emotions of a lot of people on here

    People see what they want to see, and feel what they want to feel. Prisco's actually got a pretty good record of having our backs a lot of the time the past couple years.
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:18 pm
  • Polaris wrote:
    HawkWow wrote:Whether SF +3.5 or Seattle - 3.5, the winner of such games cover the spread 75% of the time. So whether they know it or not, in making such a prediction, they are giving the 9ers a 75% chance of winning this game (outright). I would like to pose this stat to them, then ask them again who they think will cover (?). I'd bet several would change their prediction and would subsequently...GO HAWKS!


    Bwah? It's true that if you have a line of 3.5 points then the winner will cover the spread 75% of the time. [It's worth noting that Seattle actually won against the spread vs San Fran in San Fran.] However, that doesn't mean Vegas is predicting that San Fran will win 75% of the time.

    Near as I can tell, it means that Vegas is expecting Seattle to win about 55% of the time or so.


    I didn't say Vegas was picking SF to win 75% of the time. First off, Vegas wants SF to win exactly 50% of the time. 2nd, I believe the OP was talking about a team of panelists. It is them, that perhaps unknowingly, are picking SF to win (75% of the time).

    Further, you are correct, SF won in SF but failed to cover. That was not a play off game. The 75% rules I suggest applies to the play offs, regardless of spread total (-3.5...-10...what have you).
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:22 pm
  • Who didn't see this coming.

    Every media outlet around has made a story about how awful the Hawks are and how fantastic the Niners are.

    Shit is going to get real and the NBC crew will be reminded of why the Hawks are 15-1 in the last two years at home.

    My god they lost a game at home and a 2 point squeaker in SF. Obviously they are going to lose.
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:23 pm
  • loafoftatupu wrote:Who didn't see this coming.

    Every media outlet around has made a story about how awful the Hawks are and how fantastic the Niners are.

    Shit is going to get real and the NBC crew will be reminded of why the Hawks are 15-1 in the last two years at home.

    My god they lost a game at home and a 2 point squeaker in SF. Obviously they are going to lose.


    Media Memories are short. The Niners are the sexy flavor of the month. They were the sexy flavor of the Month after week 1 of the regular season too.

    We know how that went.....
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:27 pm
  • Hasselbeck wrote:
    formido wrote:Even just against the spread those picks are stupid.

    "Ed Salmons, head football oddsmaker at the LVH SuperBook, is convinced the point spread on the NFC Championship Game is short. "

    http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/nfl/ ... es-weather

    Seattle has beat the spread against SF at least the last 3 times in a row and Seattle just capped the second year in row with the best record in the NFL against the spread. Vegas typically underrates Seattle. It's worse against SF with all that money and franchise fame.


    Article says basically what I was saying

    "Lay the extra juice to get Seattle at -3, and make a smaller play on the UNDER."

    I myself would wait until Sunday .. cause I think the line will actually go to -3 with all the late Niners money (ESPECIALLY if Percy is out) .. then you can buy that half point to get away from a push.


    I am a fan of buying numbers down but I wouldn't buy this number down. Just bet the team you believe will win. The winner will cover many more times than not. Personally, I see us winning by no less than a TD and a score of 27-17, I think quite likely. I would actually be confident enough to parlay the over (39) with Seattle -3.5. But that's just me. YMMV.
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:24 pm
  • Polaris wrote:
    loafoftatupu wrote:Who didn't see this coming.

    Every media outlet around has made a story about how awful the Hawks are and how fantastic the Niners are.

    Shit is going to get real and the NBC crew will be reminded of why the Hawks are 15-1 in the last two years at home.

    My god they lost a game at home and a 2 point squeaker in SF. Obviously they are going to lose.


    Media Memories are short. The Niners are the sexy flavor of the month. They were the sexy flavor of the Month after week 1 of the regular season too.

    We know how that went.....


    Exactly that.

    Plus they had an extra game to win, giving the perception of even more momentum
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:30 pm
  • What is really funny is that Heath Evans, who usually counters the Hawks has mentioned that very thing. He even pointed to the game in SF, saying that if anyone has confidence or backing for their ability it is Seattle.

    He said;

    "that game in SF went back and forth and the Niners won by what? 2? When the Niners came to Seattle they got their heads smashed twice. You think that the Niners are ready for that? I'm taking Seattle at home every time"

    That was Heath Evans, who is impossible to convince at times. Pointed out that the Saints weren't even in the game until the end and that most of that was garbage. Of all people, Evans..
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:30 pm
  • loafoftatupu wrote:
    Polaris wrote:
    loafoftatupu wrote:Who didn't see this coming.

    Every media outlet around has made a story about how awful the Hawks are and how fantastic the Niners are.

    Shit is going to get real and the NBC crew will be reminded of why the Hawks are 15-1 in the last two years at home.

    My god they lost a game at home and a 2 point squeaker in SF. Obviously they are going to lose.


    Media Memories are short. The Niners are the sexy flavor of the month. They were the sexy flavor of the Month after week 1 of the regular season too.

    We know how that went.....


    Exactly that.

    Plus they had an extra game to win, giving the perception of even more momentum


    Exactly and diminished returns are in their immediate forecast. They just put a lot of cross country miles on and regardless of how 'pumped" they are, they can't be rested. In this case, where both teams know each other so well, our additional rest should be a huge (if not deciding) factor.
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Re: NBC SPORTS picks niners to cruise
Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:34 pm
  • loafoftatupu wrote:What is really funny is that Heath Evans, who usually counters the Hawks has mentioned that very thing. He even pointed to the game in SF, saying that if anyone has confidence or backing for their ability it is Seattle.

    He said;

    "that game in SF went back and forth and the Niners won by what? 2? When the Niners came to Seattle they got their heads smashed twice. You think that the Niners are ready for that? I'm taking Seattle at home every time"

    That was Heath Evans, who is impossible to convince at times. Pointed out that the Saints weren't even in the game until the end and that most of that was garbage. Of all people, Evans..


    Dunno what's up with Evans kissing Hawkass these days. Even picked us to beat the Pats (if that game were to be played). With his ridiculous (and undeserved) ego, he may be delusional enough to think he's in consideration for the ring of honor or something.
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