Why I think Harbaugh is a passing genius.

Scottemojo

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I am going to start by saying something that Niner fans will hate. Colin Kaepernick requires simplicity. I won't call him one read, I won't say he isn't accurate. I won't say he lacks intelligence. If I did, I would be lying. But he does lack an ability to scan the defense during plays and always pick the best option.

So Jim doesn't make him do it.

It's that simple.

Remember how bad Arizona made us look throwing the ball? Because our receivers are a bit small, they were able to line up a tiny cb, Jerraud Powers, 5'10, 187 on anyone but Kearse and not have a physical or speed mismatch.

Powers has no such matchup advantage vs either of the Niner receivers. So, the Niners opened the game in Arizona by going at that matchup about every other play. Powers played off Boldin, so three step drop and quick hit outside to Boldin, easy 8 yards. If Powers gets up on the line, Boldin throws him around in the 5 yard area and makes space that way, and they even ran a fly sweep wit the slow Boldin so Powers would end up having to tackle one of the slowest receivers to ever run a fly sweep. But they knew one thing about Powers, he doesn't really tackle well. In fact, he looked to me like tackling was the furthest thing from his mind. Point is, every one of these plays was a pre snap read. No scanning the defense, no moving the safety with eyes, just take what they are giving. Also, even after they stopped targeting Powers nearly every play, they went right back after him in critical situations later in the game. And almost always, it was a pre snap read. 6 of the first 12 plays they ran targeted Boldin on Powers.

So Harbaugh made Powers the target, and when Arizona adjusted, he went to the next easy to read and simplest read in the book, he targeted the linebackers spying his quarterback. SF would do what they do , lining up two or even three in the backfield with the QB, put those guys into pre snap motion, and see who on the D adjusted with them. Then flare one of those RB's out to the sideline after the snap. Didn't matter who, as long as it was on the side of the LB who had to keep eyes on Kaepernick. Kaepernick only has to figure out who the defense was ignoring so they could watch him, then make an uncovered throw. All pre snap reads.

While Roman's offense is incredibly complicated pre snap, maybe too complicated sometimes when you see how against the clock the Niners end up, the whole point of that is to end up with a play that will be likely to take advantage of what the defense is giving away on that play.

Two more plays that sum up how the complicated pre snap movement of the Niners is designed to give Kaepernick a single easy read. And take advantage of the spy assignment.

1st and 10, at the SF 36. Pre snap motion shows Arizona with man cover on the two receivers, with zone from the two middle backers (translation, Dansby and Washington are supposed to guard the middle and eyeball Kaepernick lest he run). At the snap, the RB, Dixon makes a beeline for the sideline, while Crabtree runs a meaningless route that sets him up to block the only defender on his side, Peterson. The linebacker eyeballing Kaepernick stays right where he is supposed to. Dixon is wide open. The feint to Crabree by Kaepernick is a front, Crabtree never even looks back at his QB, his job was to block Peterson. Easy one read catch, gain of 19.

1st and 10, at the AZ 30. Already in field goal range, this is the 6th time SF has lined up in a tackle eligible play, this time with Staley on the left side. As the play unfolds, Kaepernick appears to make a read to the right to Boldin, then spins left and completes a pass of 14 to Staley. There is no way the read to Boldin was real, he has 10 yards left in a deep curl route that he would never run against off coverage anyway unless he was the fake, and only on a trick play would the left tackle be the 2nd read. Like I said, it was a pre snap read, this play is intended to take advantage of the aggressive pass rush and the linebacker on that side intended to spy Kaepernick.

While I do think Harbaugh's offensive system is very well designed for Kaepernick's strengths and covers up his weaknesses, I also think that the compressed field of the red zone exposes some of the things Kaepernick is not that good at, as well as a lack of team speed at WR and RB, thus the high number of field goals for the Niners, particularly vs fast team defenses.
 

themunn

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Whilst that's a very interesting breakdown (and I don't mean to be critical here), hasn't this been established long ago?

It's how Alex Smith suddenly became successful and Kaepernick was successful from the get-go. Harbaugh requires a cerebral quarterback, and there's no denying that Kaepernick is an intelligent (if somewhat daft sometimes) guy.

It's also how Seattle have been so successful against him, as those pre-snap reads simply aren't there, as we have guys who can literally do it all, there's no size mismatches, no speed mismatches, and thanks to Sherman and ET's ability, no coverage mismatches. That's why he gets flustered at the line at the CLink, as picking the right read is difficult enough, without then trying to communicate it to the rest of the team.
 

OkieHawk

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Great write up Scott! Do you think that since it is a pre snap read coupled with the crowd noise this plays into why SF does so horrible here? And if Kaep can't read the defense well, they can't institute something to offset this deficiency here, so he will continue to have problems in Seattle.
 

jlwaters1

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I'm not sure why you WOULDN"T call him inaccurate. Because he has been. I keep hearing all around that he's extremely accurate, (last year especially). The guy completed 58% of his passes this year (Ranks #31st among QB's), even with the fewest pass attempts in the league. That's below average. 60% seems to be the minimal standard in the NFL and as mentioned above most are well above 60%. In the playoffs this year he's complete 53%, which is even worse (that's with Crabtree, since that's the seems to be the X-factor according to the pundits.) His career completion % is 59%.

Sure he's smart, got a big arm, but he's got inconsistent footwork and a long release and he doesn't make the best decisions. For all the "expert" talk about how they are the hottest team, their season should have been over if Micah Hyde could just catch- what was a horrible decision and throw on CK's part. Hopefully Seattle can keep at that 53% or below on Sunday.
 

SoulfishHawk

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Until he puts together a good game in Seattle, I'm not worried about Kaep. His running is more of a weapon than his arm. And his decision making is not good at all. In fact, he has really gotten lucky on some sure picks in the playoffs. In the GB game, the guy drops a pick that would have likely iced the game for the Pack. In the Carolina game, the guy had a shot at an easy pick 6.

IF they come in to Seattle and beat the hawks, they are the best team in football, period.

But, I don't care about their stupid streak, this is our house.
 

Kixkahn

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Harbaugh is a passing genius (or any kind of genius)?
I'll pass
:sarcasm_off:

Harbaugh is an idiot
The players on the 49ers are smart (although it pains me to say it)
Harbaugh reminds me of the 2 year old child that thinks they can get away with something and when it doesn't work throws a fit.
The only reason the 49ers are where they are at is that the team has got some talented players. (Man this is almost making me puke to say these things)

All this being said, the Seahawks are also full of talent and they use that talent in a system that promotes teamwork and preparation.
Never looking too far ahead or behind. We could look just 4 years ago and think poor me, but we keep moving ahead and learning.
This system was brought in by Carroll. It has been embraced by the players and has become not just a mantra, but a way of life.
The Seahawks are going to win because they are the better team with the better coach.

Go Hawks!!
 
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Scottemojo

Scottemojo

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themunn":xx27wum6 said:
Whilst that's a very interesting breakdown (and I don't mean to be critical here), hasn't this been established long ago?

It's how Alex Smith suddenly became successful and Kaepernick was successful from the get-go. Harbaugh requires a cerebral quarterback, and there's no denying that Kaepernick is an intelligent (if somewhat daft sometimes) guy.

It's also how Seattle have been so successful against him, as those pre-snap reads simply aren't there, as we have guys who can literally do it all, there's no size mismatches, no speed mismatches, and thanks to Sherman and ET's ability, no coverage mismatches. That's why he gets flustered at the line at the CLink, as picking the right read is difficult enough, without then trying to communicate it to the rest of the team.

I'm sure it has been established long ago by far bigger authorities than me. Still, it was educational to break down how the Niners had success moving the ball through the air vs a defense that gave us fits. So I shared what I saw. My original intent was going to be to compare Harbaugh to Bevell in offensive design, but I decided that would just end up a derailed thread so I refrained. A breakdown of Bevell is for another day.

What you said was why I went back to the all 22 so I could see how he has his success and why Harbaugh and Kaepernick struggles with Seattle.
 
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Scottemojo

Scottemojo

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jlwaters1":3l2hknur said:
I'm not sure why you WOULDN"T call him inaccurate. Because he has been. I keep hearing all around that he's extremely accurate, (last year especially). The guy completed 58% of his passes this year (Ranks #31st among QB's), even with the fewest pass attempts in the league. That's below average. 60% seems to be the minimal standard in the NFL and as mentioned above most are well above 60%. In the playoffs this year he's complete 53%, which is even worse (that's with Crabtree, since that's the seems to be the X-factor according to the pundits.) His career completion % is 59%.

Sure he's smart, got a big arm, but he's got inconsistent footwork and a long release and he doesn't make the best decisions. For all the "expert" talk about how they are the hottest team, their season should have been over if Micah Hyde could just catch- what was a horrible decision and throw on CK's part. Hopefully Seattle can keep at that 53% or below on Sunday.

I think Kaepernick struggles with a few specific types of throws, and is stunningly accurate on some others. When he can do his long pitcher stride into a good pocket, he makes some startlingly accurate throws, and with velocity. When his pass is to that pre snap primary read, I would be willing to bet he is well over 60 percent. Maybe near 70.

The throw that Hyde dropped was accurate. It was just a bad decision. If Hyde doesn't break on that ball it's probably complete.
Edit: I will add this. Colin is 7th in YPA among full time starters, and SF is 2nd in yards per completion, which would suggest Colin is accurate enough down the field.
 

formido

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Brilliant analysis. Explains why it's not easy to simply adjust for Seattle's crowd noise: That would take away everything that makes SF's offense special.

Also, I'd appreciate if Seattle took a page from SF's book and attacked teams' spies. Teams are sitting on Wilson's scrambles and Seattle doesn't make them pay.
 
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Scottemojo

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SoulfishHawk":2mfgk64i said:
Until he puts together a good game in Seattle, I'm not worried about Kaep. His running is more of a weapon than his arm. And his decision making is not good at all. In fact, he has really gotten lucky on some sure picks in the playoffs. In the GB game, the guy drops a pick that would have likely iced the game for the Pack. In the Carolina game, the guy had a shot at an easy pick 6.

IF they come in to Seattle and beat the hawks, they are the best team in football, period.

But, I don't care about their stupid streak, this is our house.

You may have missed the point. Harbaugh knows Kaepernick struggles with good decision making after the snap, so he uses pre snap reads to remove that problem from most offensive plays.
 

ZagHawk

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I feel like our offense is always, run, run, BIG Throw. Run, run, BIG Throw. When we were clicking, I feel like we were really effective on offense whenever Miller is making catches. Why isn't he being targeted more often?
 
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Scottemojo

Scottemojo

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ZagHawk":3bsqf2mc said:
I feel like our offense is always, run, run, BIG Throw. Run, run, BIG Throw. When we were clicking, I feel like we were really effective on offense whenever Miller is making catches. Why isn't he being targeted more often?
Certainly the word always doesn't apply, but I'm sure there is something to your perception.

On Miller, seeing why he doesn't get targeted more is a good off season project. I would suspect it is partly because we run so much play action, and play action deep shots both do not target tight ends, and require max protect.
 

lobohawk

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Scottemojo":28hg3441 said:
jlwaters1":28hg3441 said:
I'm not sure why you WOULDN"T call him inaccurate. Because he has been. I keep hearing all around that he's extremely accurate, (last year especially). The guy completed 58% of his passes this year (Ranks #31st among QB's), even with the fewest pass attempts in the league. That's below average. 60% seems to be the minimal standard in the NFL and as mentioned above most are well above 60%. In the playoffs this year he's complete 53%, which is even worse (that's with Crabtree, since that's the seems to be the X-factor according to the pundits.) His career completion % is 59%.

Sure he's smart, got a big arm, but he's got inconsistent footwork and a long release and he doesn't make the best decisions. For all the "expert" talk about how they are the hottest team, their season should have been over if Micah Hyde could just catch- what was a horrible decision and throw on CK's part. Hopefully Seattle can keep at that 53% or below on Sunday.

I think Kaepernick struggles with a few specific types of throws, and is stunningly accurate on some others. When he can do his long pitcher stride into a good pocket, he makes some startlingly accurate throws, and with velocity. When his pass is to that pre snap primary read, I would be willing to bet he is well over 60 percent. Maybe near 70.

The throw that Hyde dropped was accurate. It was just a bad decision. If Hyde doesn't break on that ball it's probably complete.
Edit: I will add this. Colin is 7th in YPA among full time starters, and SF is 2nd in yards per completion, which would suggest Colin is accurate enough down the field.


I also suspect that, as with many strong armed throwers and especially younger ones, Kap may have a tendency to use his strong throws when a WR is open or breaking open. He sees them open...then hammers it in there. Less likely to throw to the spot the WR will be using touch.
 

formido

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Scottemojo":17sm9aca said:
SoulfishHawk":17sm9aca said:
Until he puts together a good game in Seattle, I'm not worried about Kaep. His running is more of a weapon than his arm. And his decision making is not good at all. In fact, he has really gotten lucky on some sure picks in the playoffs. In the GB game, the guy drops a pick that would have likely iced the game for the Pack. In the Carolina game, the guy had a shot at an easy pick 6.

IF they come in to Seattle and beat the hawks, they are the best team in football, period.

But, I don't care about their stupid streak, this is our house.

You may have missed the point. Harbaugh knows Kaepernick struggles with good decision making after the snap, so he uses pre snap reads to remove that problem from most offensive plays.

Of course, he did the same for Alex Smith, too, no? I wonder if he trusted Luck more at Stanford. My guess is Harbaugh would always try to make it as easy as possible on his QBs like this. Unfortunately, it works so well against 90% of teams that it puts a ceiling on his QBs' development. On the other hand, even elite QBs struggle against Seattle, so maybe that doesn't matter too much.
 

themunn

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Scottemojo":2vlwd5qb said:
I'm sure it has been established long ago by far bigger authorities than me. Still, it was educational to break down how the Niners had success moving the ball through the air vs a defense that gave us fits. So I shared what I saw. My original intent was going to be to compare Harbaugh to Bevell in offensive design, but I decided that would just end up a derailed thread so I refrained. A breakdown of Bevell is for another day.

What you said was why I went back to the all 22 so I could see how he has his success and why Harbaugh and Kaepernick struggles with Seattle.

(Obviously) I haven't looked at the Arizona game (because why would I want to subject myself to that torment), but at the time I felt that was a game that was as much on failure to execute - to gain separation and make accurate passes - as it was just flat out great defense.

I originally misunderstood which defense you were talking about when you said "defense that gave us fits" and thought you meant Carolina for some reason, to which I thought "hang on a minute, Wilson had a great game against Carolina. And so I thought it might be a good idea to do a flat out passing yardage comparison of Wilson (in bold) and Kaepernick against common opponents. I thought the results were interesting, as aside from Sunday's game against New Orleans, Wilson had more passing yards against every single non-division opponent we faced. I wonder if there is something in that. Even more oddly (although I haven't tallied the figures), Wilson had more rushing yards overall than Kaepernick, which I simply didn't realsie was the case.

Carolina - 320 91 227
New Orleans 310 103 127
Tampa Bay 217 203
Atlanta 287 197
Indianapolis 210 150
Jacksonville 202 164
Houston 123 113
Tenneesee 257 199
St Louis 139 172 167 275
Arizona 235 108 252 310

Obviously, passing yardage is not an indicator of success, and that's something that we're well aware of, however, I did find it interesting to make that comparison
 
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Scottemojo

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formido":28j7c57j said:
Scottemojo":28j7c57j said:
SoulfishHawk":28j7c57j said:
Until he puts together a good game in Seattle, I'm not worried about Kaep. His running is more of a weapon than his arm. And his decision making is not good at all. In fact, he has really gotten lucky on some sure picks in the playoffs. In the GB game, the guy drops a pick that would have likely iced the game for the Pack. In the Carolina game, the guy had a shot at an easy pick 6.

IF they come in to Seattle and beat the hawks, they are the best team in football, period.

But, I don't care about their stupid streak, this is our house.

You may have missed the point. Harbaugh knows Kaepernick struggles with good decision making after the snap, so he uses pre snap reads to remove that problem from most offensive plays.

Of course, he did the same for Alex Smith, too, no? I wonder if he trusted Luck more at Stanford. My guess is Harbaugh would always try to make it as easy as possible on his QBs like this. Unfortunately, it works so well against 90% of teams that it puts a ceiling on his QBs' development. On the other hand, even elite QBs struggle against Seattle, so maybe that doesn't matter too much.

Stanford ran the ball near 60 percent of the time, and play action on most of it's passing, a lot of that to tight ends, so I'd say it's pretty safe to assume that was mostly pre snap read based passing as well.

Every QB in the league makes decisions based on pre snap reads most of the time. It's just that in SF they do it nearly all the time, and I'm convinced it's because they are scheming around the QB limitations after the snap.
 

RolandDeschain

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It was evident before Kaepernick was ever a starter, IMO. The dumbed-down passing game for Alex Smith that was quite successful.
 

LickMyNuts

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Crabtree catches a lot of bad balls from Kaepernick. My guess is that his completion percentage went up significantly with him in the lineup.
 
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