Offensive woes linked to a key stat

I was looking through our offensive stats from the end of last year and the end of this year and one of them jumped out at me. Comparing the last 7 games of 2013 vs the last 7 games played this year Russell's run stats are as follows:

Last 7 games 2012

Russell's total rushing yards 389 for and average of 55 per game

Last 7 games 2013

Russell's total rushing yards 160 for an average of 22 per game

This is a huge difference and probably the difference of sustaining many more drives and scoring many more points. BTW the reason for only using the last 7 games this year was so as not to skew the numbers when he was running for his life with 60% of the line injured.

If we want to score more points then he has to keep the ball much more often on the read option thus keeping the D off guard and this will open up some of the WR's to actually getting open. Thoughts?

Russell's left more than one first down out there by not keeping on the r/o. Not sure if it's him or if it's coaches telling him not to do it.

I thought we fared well when Lynch told him he needed to just take over and he actually started keeping the ball. Though I think that is more realistic against teams other than SF. They always have a spy on him and when we run the r/o, Brooks almost always commits to Russell (even if it gives up yardage to Lynch). We ran it plenty in week 2. Not sure about week 14 as I haven't counted.

Either way, he needs to at least keep the ball when it makes sense. Been letting Lynch run into a wall of defenders on some of those r/o plays. You're always running the risk of a late hit (which only costs the other team a 1st and 15 yards but might cost us the game when we lose our QB). This is what has me leaning toward coaches telling him not to keep it unless he's got a country mile of grass in front of him.

I think the other issue is that teams have been placing a defender in RW's face when he rolls out to the right. Last season he was able to roll to his right and take off if the play wasn't there. If San Francisco does this we need to get a body on that free defender.

They're not really read options, they just look like it. Russell has said that himself. However, if they're spying you constantly, you should be able to exploit that.

He can't run because they're spying him every time and they're holding the edges better and just pushing in the pocket.

RW needs to stand in a bit better and stick with it. WR's need to get open and things should open up a bit.

How about 3rd down conversions ?

That's a key stat that we've been ass in for the last 6 weeks. You don't extend drives and you lose time of possession and it also effects the defense.

Hawks46":2oq1b1ye said:

How about 3rd down conversions ?

That's a key stat that we've been ass in for the last 6 weeks. You don't extend drives and you lose time of possession and it also effects the defense.

Click to expand...

I think our poor 3rd down % is more indicative of the fact that we are not keeping on schedule through 1st and 2nd down... But I can't put my finger on the reason for that... play calling? execution?

13thMan":12d0to4b said:

Hawks46":12d0to4b said:

How about 3rd down conversions ?

That's a key stat that we've been ass in for the last 6 weeks. You don't extend drives and you lose time of possession and it also effects the defense.

Click to expand...

I think our poor 3rd down % is more indicative of the fact that we are not keeping on schedule through 1st and 2nd down... But I can't put my finger on the reason for that... play calling? execution?

Click to expand...

Most of these 3rd and longs are because 1st and 2nd were Lynch runs between the tackles even though there was 8 in the box.

You know some of what you guys say makes sense, and someone hit on the real issue, they are keeping RW from running, not because he cannot beat them form the pocket but because our WR cannot get open with him RW running and drawing attention. That is a huge problem, when you have NO WR that can beat man to man coverage without needing your QB to run or scramble. That said a REAL OC, would be bale to game plan for this as well, cross patterns, picks, bunch formations, motion, etc, for some reason our OC does not.

jblaze":2bqblqvz said:

13thMan":2bqblqvz said:

Hawks46":2bqblqvz said:

How about 3rd down conversions ?

That's a key stat that we've been ass in for the last 6 weeks. You don't extend drives and you lose time of possession and it also effects the defense.

Click to expand...

I think our poor 3rd down % is more indicative of the fact that we are not keeping on schedule through 1st and 2nd down... But I can't put my finger on the reason for that... play calling? execution?

Click to expand...

Most of these 3rd and longs are because 1st and 2nd were Lynch runs between the tackles even though there was 8 in the box.

Click to expand...

You have to take the good with the bad.

That last Lynch TD was against 10 in the box. If you break free, you're going to get an explosive play.

Anthony!":z8bfmug8 said:

You know some of what you guys say makes sense, and someone hit on the real issue, they are keeping RW from running, not because he cannot beat them form the pocket but because our WR cannot get open with him RW running and drawing attention. That is a huge problem, when you have NO WR that can beat man to man coverage without needing your QB to run or scramble. That said a REAL OC, would be bale to game plan for this as well, cross patterns, picks, bunch formations, motion, etc, for some reason our OC does not.

Click to expand...

I am curious how many "real" offensive minds you think there are in the NFL? Shanahan, Gibbs and Arians were not able to overcome similar shortcomings. Sean Payton was not able to do any of that stuff against us until we started playing the clock at the end of the game. Personnel and situations hamper everybody and there isn't some genius playcaller out there who can overcome any handicap by moving everybody around and then calling a screen pass.

I think Russell's legs show up Sunday, he could have taken off so many times this year and hasn't.

I think he's been told to rein in his running game. RW3 was making runs in the Pro bowl that he wouldnt do now. It's the sensible call to prevent an RG3 type scenario but it does lose us a big part of the offense.

jblaze":1guhbwgl said:

They're not really read options, they just look like it. Russell has said that himself. However, if they're spying you constantly, you should be able to exploit that.

He can't run because they're spying him every time and they're holding the edges better and just pushing in the pocket.

RW needs to stand in a bit better and stick with it. WR's need to get open and things should open up a bit.

Click to expand...

I've been saying this! We have forced the D to assign a man to spy Russell and by now our brain trust should have developed plays to exploit this. How about have a check down route behind the spy or have a designed run for Russell where a TE or Full back comes across the pattern and takes the guy out? Bottom line is a play that takes out that spy should open up big yardage.

Third down conversion percent was my thought when I clicked the thread, but I think quarterback runs factor into that stat more than first meets the eye. Russell has backed off from running the ball. A lot. Many times throughout the last number of games, I've been hollering at my TV for him to just run and pick up at least a couple yards before scooting out of bounds. Many times a few yards are there. And mostly he tries for the down field pass, which is not always a completion. When he throws an incompletion in such a play, we're now looking at second and ten, rather than second and six or so. That changes the dynamics of the next two plays dramatically, and results in a whole lot more missed opportunities on third downs. Suddenly we're not doing well on offense, all because of the breakdown of a single series in a possession, brought on by the fact that we didn't gain positive yardage on first or second down and are forced into a third and long situation. Sure, the potential for a longer play is there with the throw, and we often need to take those shots, but many times our scoring chances improve by taking the short run if there is nothing open until after Russell is flushed out of the pocket.

Some more stats to prove the point that Russell needs to run more:

Rushing yards for Russell in his 2 wins against the Niners:
62

Rushing yards for Russell in his 2 loses against the Niners:
12

Dude needs to use his legs more. Not sure if it's him or Bevell making this call but whatever the case, it seems that it's one of the keys between winning and losing this game.

seabowl":13srotol said:

Some more stats to prove the point that Russell needs to run more:

Rushing yards for Russell in his 2 wins against the Niners:
62

Rushing yards for Russell in his 2 loses against the Niners:
12

Dude needs to use his legs more. Not sure if it's him or Bevell making this call but whatever the case, it seems that it's one of the keys between winning and losing this game.

Click to expand...

Teams are defending him differently, 9ers just like the Cardinals do with D. Washington have Ahmad Brooks spying on Wilson on every Bootleg/RO play. Brooks gave Russ a nice lick in week 2 after Russell didn't put his hands up surrendering. It makes sense for them to want to limit the contact he gets.

Im more worried about our 3rd down conversion, sustaining more drives allows our D to be more fresh and keeps Kapernick and Frank Gore on the sidelines

Killa Kam":17hcbk8g said:

seabowl":17hcbk8g said:

Some more stats to prove the point that Russell needs to run more:

Rushing yards for Russell in his 2 wins against the Niners:
62

Rushing yards for Russell in his 2 loses against the Niners:
12

Dude needs to use his legs more. Not sure if it's him or Bevell making this call but whatever the case, it seems that it's one of the keys between winning and losing this game.

Click to expand...

Teams are defending him differently, 9ers just like the Cardinals do with D. Washington have Ahmad Brooks spying on Wilson on every Bootleg/RO play. Brooks gave Russ a nice lick in week 2 after Russell didn't put his hands up surrendering. It makes sense for them to want to limit the contact he gets.

Im more worried about our 3rd down conversion, sustaining more drives allows our D to be more fresh and keeps Kapernick and Frank Gore on the sidelines

Click to expand...

And our OC should have come up with a play that takes advantage of this by now.

brimsalabim":310m9pa5 said:

Killa Kam":310m9pa5 said:

seabowl":310m9pa5 said:

Some more stats to prove the point that Russell needs to run more:

Rushing yards for Russell in his 2 wins against the Niners:
62

Rushing yards for Russell in his 2 loses against the Niners:
12

Dude needs to use his legs more. Not sure if it's him or Bevell making this call but whatever the case, it seems that it's one of the keys between winning and losing this game.

Click to expand...

Teams are defending him differently, 9ers just like the Cardinals do with D. Washington have Ahmad Brooks spying on Wilson on every Bootleg/RO play. Brooks gave Russ a nice lick in week 2 after Russell didn't put his hands up surrendering. It makes sense for them to want to limit the contact he gets.

Im more worried about our 3rd down conversion, sustaining more drives allows our D to be more fresh and keeps Kapernick and Frank Gore on the sidelines

Click to expand...

And our OC should have come up with a play that takes advantage of this by now.

Click to expand...

Don't get me started on Bevell.

If they're spying you it means they are a man down on either pass rush or coverage. We should be able to take advantage of it.

TJH":3sta2ay6 said:

If they're spying you it means they are a man down on either pass rush or coverage. We should be able to take advantage of it.

Click to expand...

That's the key. We haven't been able to do that. We need to threaten the middle with the TE and crossing routes to keep the spies honest.