10 AM Start Corollary

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10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:35 am
  • If 10AM starts put Seattle at a disadvantage, then the corollary is that we have an advantage when playing an East Coast team on MNF. According to numerous studies, human strength and coordination peaks in mid afternoon. For the Saints, this game will be deep into their night. Perhaps this factor helps to explain why Seattle has the best record in the NFL on MNF.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:37 am
  • But have we won home MNF games and lost our East MNF games, generally?
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:40 am
  • I remember a dismantling of an Eagle team in Philly during a snowstorm on MNF...
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:08 am
  • HoustonHawk82 wrote:I remember a dismantling of an Eagle team in Philly during a snowstorm on MNF...

    Good memories there Scott.........Lofa with a pick 6 IIRC. Final was 42-0 I believe.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:10 am
  • This corollary is an established fact! The irony, of course, is that I found this looking for evidence of how hard 10 a.m. starts were on West Coast teams. Money quote:

    "The Stanford researchers dug through 25 years of Monday night NFL games and flagged every time a West Coast team played an East Coast team. Then, in an inspired move, they compared the final scores for each game with the point spread developed by bookmakers in Vegas. The results were stunning. The West Coast teams dominated their East Coast opponents no matter where they played. A West Coast team won 63 percent of the time, by an average of two touchdowns. The games were much closer when an East Coast team won, with an average margin of victory of only nine points. By picking the West Coast team every time, someone would have beaten the point spread 70 percent of the time. For gamblers in Las Vegas, the matchup was as good as found money."
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:22 am
  • formido wrote:If 10AM starts put Seattle at a disadvantage, then the corollary is that we have an advantage when playing an East Coast team on MNF. According to numerous studies, human strength and coordination peaks in mid afternoon. For the Saints, this game will be deep into their night. Perhaps this factor helps to explain why Seattle has the best record in the NFL on MNF.


    An interesting point. I have never thought of this before but it makes a lot of sense.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:31 am
  • Historically, the Raiders were a very good MNF team. At one time I believe they were 22-2 or something unbelievable. This might have had something to do with that.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:37 am
  • hawksfansinceday1 wrote:
    HoustonHawk82 wrote:I remember a dismantling of an Eagle team in Philly during a snowstorm on MNF...

    Good memories there Scott.........Lofa with a pick 6 IIRC. Final was 42-0 I believe.

    I don't remember any snow that night, and Lofa had 3 picks. Eagles had their backup QB for that game.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:41 am
  • sutz wrote:Historically, the Raiders were a very good MNF team. At one time I believe they were 22-2 or something unbelievable. This might have had something to do with that.

    The Stanford study controlled for that too.

    "In a test to ensure that their findings weren't the result of West Coast teams simply being better during those years, the researchers expanded their scope and looked at every Monday Night Football game played during that twenty-five-year time span. They found that the overall winning percentages for West Coast and East Coast teams were essentially even when the teams were not playing a game against an opponent from the other coast."
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:41 am
  • formido wrote:If 10AM starts put Seattle at a disadvantage, then the corollary is that we have an advantage when playing an East Coast team on MNF. According to numerous studies, human strength and coordination peaks in mid afternoon. For the Saints, this game will be deep into their night. Perhaps this factor helps to explain why Seattle has the best record in the NFL on MNF.


    Good point. Thanks for bringing it up.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:03 am
  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    hawksfansinceday1 wrote:
    HoustonHawk82 wrote:I remember a dismantling of an Eagle team in Philly during a snowstorm on MNF...

    Good memories there Scott.........Lofa with a pick 6 IIRC. Final was 42-0 I believe.

    I don't remember any snow that night, and Lofa had 3 picks. Eagles had their backup QB for that game.


    It definitely snowed during that game.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:05 am
  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    hawksfansinceday1 wrote:
    HoustonHawk82 wrote:I remember a dismantling of an Eagle team in Philly during a snowstorm on MNF...

    Good memories there Scott.........Lofa with a pick 6 IIRC. Final was 42-0 I believe.

    I don't remember any snow that night, and Lofa had 3 picks. Eagles had their backup QB for that game.

    Definitely snow. You are thinking of one a few years later that the Hawks won like 28-24 where Tatupu had the three picks. In this one, Tatupu had one pick and ran it back for a TD, then ran up and punched out the goal post in an homage to Norton...see below.

    http://www.nwsportsbeat.com/seahawks/2005-moments-in-time-seattle-vs-philadelphia-eagles-301111/

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    The already NFC West Champions had the #1 defense in football and went into Philadelphia for a snowy Monday Night Football matchup at the Linc. (Lincoln Financial Field) The offenses struggled in the snow, but the defense earned their money that day.


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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:07 am
  • Oh my bad, I thought the subject said "10AM start coronary" in which point I was going to agree wholeheartedly.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:10 am
  • VivaEfrenHerrera wrote:
    sutz wrote:Historically, the Raiders were a very good MNF team. At one time I believe they were 22-2 or something unbelievable. This might have had something to do with that.

    The Stanford study controlled for that too.

    "In a test to ensure that their findings weren't the result of West Coast teams simply being better during those years, the researchers expanded their scope and looked at every Monday Night Football game played during that twenty-five-year time span. They found that the overall winning percentages for West Coast and East Coast teams were essentially even when the teams were not playing a game against an opponent from the other coast."

    Yeah. IIRC, playing in Seattle on MNF was the start of the Raiders fall from the lead in that category. :)
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:10 am
  • Ah, yeah, Lofa's 3-pick night was in 2007.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:12 am
  • hawksfansinceday1 wrote:
    HoustonHawk82 wrote:I remember a dismantling of an Eagle team in Philly during a snowstorm on MNF...

    Good memories there Scott.........Lofa with a pick 6 IIRC. Final was 42-0 I believe.


    Correct. It was the most lopsided MNF game ever for a few weeks.

    I believe the Hawks have the highest winning percentage in prime time games (Thurday, Sunday night, Monday night etc)
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 1:16 pm
  • Actually professional poker players recognize that west coast players are at a disadvantage when playing on the east coast, and they are at an advantage on the west coast, precisely because most poker is played in the late afternoon into the late evening.

    I think the corollary isn't entirely the right comparison, I guess is what I'm saying... I think it's pretty clear that night games which kick off at 5 or so Pacific time should be the same everywhere -- as the kickoff time is at the same body clock time regardless of where the game is played. It makes sense given the physical nature of the games that west coast teams might have an advantage over east coast teams with the late starts. For the east coast teams, the game isn't ending until nearly midnight, when the body wants to be asleep.

    Conversely, I think it's probably true that if you looked at 1:30 Pacific time starts, and compared games played at that time in the west vs. games played at that time in the east, you'd probably find that controlling for everything else, the outcome would be pretty similar between those. The east coast teams would be at body clock time 4:30 going through 8:00 or so which is fine.

    Finally, I think 10 AM Pacific starts would clearly show a bias towards the east coast teams.

    This is just MHO, but the critical point I'm trying to make is that prime time games start at the same body clock time regardless of where the game is actually played -- because the start time of the game is shifted locally to line up with 8:30 Eastern.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 5:24 pm
  • Here's a little info on the Saints prime time games with Brees, in case anyone is wondering.

    As I'm sure Saints fans will point out, they are 10-2 on MNF during the Brees era. But that only includes one game against a west coast team, which was a 25-22 victory at SF in 2010 when the 49ers were bad.

    On Sunday Night Football, they are 2-0 against west coast teams, including a victory against us in Seattle in 2007, and we weren't bad that year. The other was last year at home vs. SD.

    They've also played two prime time playoff games vs. west coast teams (us in 2010, SF in 2011) and lost both of them.

    I'm not drawing any conclusions from this, just stating facts.
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Re: 10 AM Start Corollary
Fri Nov 22, 2013 5:52 pm
  • Ad Hawk wrote:But have we won home MNF games and lost our East MNF games, generally?

    Irrelevant, as MNF starts at the same time whether it be east or west coast.
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