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Seahawks Quest for the #1 Seed ...
Exploring Playoff Scenarios
A 41-20 win against the Vikings, coupled with a 49er Loss to the Saints (2nd Loss in a Row) made Sunday an awesome day for your Seattle Seahawks in their quest for the #1 Playoff Seed. Seattle is in pole position with a 1 ½ lap lead over the Saints ... a 2 ½ lap lead over the Panthers ... and now a full 3 ½ game lead over the 49ers, Cardinals, Lions, and Bears (Oh My!).
950 KJR-am’s Mitch Levy often does a “Mr. Playoffs” segment where he examines all the playoff scenarios. We’re going to do something similar here, taking a look at a few scenarios for the Seahawks top competitors and where they all stand as far as the #1 Seed is concerned at this moment in time. We’ll take a look at each of the NFC’s top teams and examine the possibilities – assuming that the each team somehow ends the season tied with the Seahawks. Before we get in to that though, it’s incumbent to lay out how ties are broken. According to the NFL’s official website any potential ties for the #1 seed would be broken using the Wild Card tiebreakers. On the league’s website, we read …
In other words, if a situation ever presented itself where 2 teams in the same conference (who were not in the same division) ever tied for the conference’s best record, we would use the Wild Card tie breakers in order to decide who ends up with the #1 Seed. The NFL’s official Wild Card tie breakers are as follows …
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
If two teams are tied and in the same division however, the tiebreaking procedures are a bit different. In this case, it would fall under the “To Break a Tie Within a Division” rules, which are as follows …
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
Keep those in mind as we move forward. Now, let’s get going by taking a look at each of the Seahawks top competitors in the NFC at this moment in time …
Welcome to Fantasy Island …
Tatoo: ”The Plane Boss, The Plane” …
Welcome to Fantasy Island. The place where all your playoff fantasy dreams can come true. We make our first stop here because it’s only here where these scenarios could ever exist. A wild weekend in the NFL left a logjam of 6-4 Teams all fighting for the playoffs. For sanity’s sake, we won’t even talk about the Eagles, as trying to figure out a scenario in which they’d actually be able to walk away with the #1 Seed would send anyone to Arkham Asylum.
That said, let the dreaming begin, as we explore what it would take for the following teams to walk away with the NFL’s #1 Seed …
Detroit Lions (6-4)
Week 1 – vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-8] (Win 34-24)
Week 2— at Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Loss 21-25)
Week 3 – at Washington Redskins [3-7] (Win 27-20)
Week 4 – vs. Chicago Bears [6-4] (Win 40-32)
Week 5 – at Green Bay Packers [5-5] (Loss 9-22)
Week 6 – at Cleveland Browns [4-6] (Win 31-17)
Week 7 – vs. Cincinnati Bengals [7-4] (Loss 24-27)
Week 8 – vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 31-30)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – at Chicago Bears [6-4] (Win 21-19)
Week 11 – at Pittsburgh Steelers [4-6] (Loss 37-27)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8]
Week 13 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-5]
Week 14 – at Philadelphia Eagles [6-5]
Week 15 – vs. Baltimore Ravens [4-6]
Week 16 – vs. New York Giants [4-6]
Week 17 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-8]
Record of Remaining Opponents 23-38 (.377)
Strength of Victory … 26-34 (.433)
In this scenario, we’re going to assume that the Lions miraculously win out the remaining 6 games of their schedule to get to 12-4. In addition …
The Seahawks would have to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games (extremely unlikely, but let’s say they do for argument’s sake) to the 49ers, the Saints, and the Giants on the road. That would put the Hawks at 12-4.
The Saints finish 11-5. Let’s have the Saints losing both Panther games (home and away)
and to the Rams in Week 15. The Saints would go 3-3 down the stretch in this scenario.
The Saints losing would mean that the Panthers would end up beating them twice. Let’s also have the Panthers finish by beating Tampa Bay at home and the Falcons on the road … but losing to Miami on the road next week and the Jets at home in Week 15. So, the Panthers would end up going 4-2 … and finishing up the season at 11-5.
We’ll have the 49ers somehow lose to the Rams at home (they played them tough at home last year), but win the rest of their games as well to go to 11-5.
The Chicago Bears have 6 games remaining as well. Let’s have them winning half of their games, beating the Vikings, the Browns, and the Cowboys at home … but losing to the Rams, the Eagles, and the Packers. They’d finish 9-7.
The Arizona Cardinals have 6 games remaining and it’s a fairly tough schedule. We’ll have them losing to the Colts, the Seahawks, and the 49ers and also finish at 9-7.
Head spinning yet? That’s more gymnastics than Mary Lou Retton ever performed. After all of that rigamarole, the Lions and Seahawks end up the season tied at 12-4. In that scenario, here is how the tie would be broken …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)… NA
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Lions … 10-2 (assuming wins in each of their last 6 games)
Seahawks … 9-3 (assuming losses against the Saints, 49ers, and Giants)
So the Lions would walk away with the #1 Seed. All it took was:
A) Winning their remaining 6 games in a row.
B) The Seahawks Losing 3 of their remaining 5 games.
C) The Saints losing 3 of their remaining 6 games (including to the Panthers twice).
D) The Panthers doing no better than 4-2 the rest of the way.
E) Neither the Bears nor the Cardinals somehow catching fire and winning their remaining 6 games either.
On to our next fantasy ...
Chicago Bears (6-4)
Week 1 – vs. Cincinnati Bengals [7-4] (Win 24-21)
Week 2— vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-8] (Won 31-30)
Week 3 – at Pittsburgh Steelers [4-6] (Win 40-23)
Week 4 – at Detroit Lions [6-4] (Loss 32-40)
Week 5 – vs. New Orleans Saints [8-2] (Loss 18-26)
Week 6 – vs. New York Giants [4-6] (Win 27-21)
Week 7 – at Washington Redskins [3-7] (Loss 41-45)
Week 8 – BYE
Week 9 – at Green Bay Packers [5-5] (Win 27-20)
Week 10 – vs. Detroit Lions [6-4] (Loss 19-21)
Week 11 – vs. Baltimore Ravens [4-6] (Win 23-20)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 13 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-8]
Week 14 – vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5]
Week 15 – at Cleveland Browns [4-6]
Week 16 – at Philadelphia Eagles [6-5]
Week 17 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-5]
Record of Remaining Opponents 26-35 (.426)
Strength of Victory … 26-35 (.426)
Again in this scenario, we’re going to assume that the Bears miraculously win out the remaining 6 games of their schedule to get to 12-4. Let’s have many of the exact same circumstances play out, this time with the Bears. In addition to the Bears winning out, the following things would have to happen for them to end up tied with the Seahawks …
The Seahawks would have to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games (extremely unlikely, but let’s say they do for argument’s sake) to the 49ers, the Saints, and the Giants on the road. That would put the Hawks at 12-4.
The Saints would have to finish 11-5. Let’s have the Saints losing both Panther games (home and away) and to the Rams in Week 15. The Saints would go 3-3 down the stretch in this scenario.
We’ll have the Panthers beat the Saints twice, Tampa Bay at home, and the Falcons on the road … but losing to Miami on the road next week and the Jets at home in Week 15. So, the Panthers would end up going 4-2 … and finishing up the season at 11-5 in this scenario.
We’ll have the 49ers somehow lose to the Rams at home (they played them tough at home last year), but win the rest of their games as well to go to 11-5.
As far as the Lions are concerned, let’s say they win 4 of their last 6 games (I’d say that’s fairly realistic), losing to both the Packers and the suddenly invigorated Giants to finish up 10-6.
And let’s say that the Cardinals lose to the Seahawks, the Colts, and the 49ers … and again beat the Eagles, Rams, and Titans to finish 9-7. Pretty realistic too.
So in our little scenario here, the Bears and the Seahawks both finish up 12-4, tied for the best record in the NFC. Here is how the tie would be broken …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)… NA
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Bears … 8-4 vs. the NFC (assuming wins in each of their last 6 games)
Seahawks … 9-3 vs. the NFC (assuming losses against the Saints, 49ers, and Giants)
In summary, for the Bears to have even a shot at the #1 Seed, the following would have to take place:
A) The Bears would have to win their remaining 6 games in a row.
B) The Seahawks would need to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games.
C) The Saints would have to lose 3 of their remaining 6 games (including to the Panthers twice).
D) The Panthers would have to do no better than 4-2 the rest of the way.
E) The 49ers would need to finish 11-5 or below. If they finished 12-4 and tied the Bears, San Francisco would finish 9-3 against the conference. The Bears would be only 8-4 vs. the conference, so would lose to the 49ers at that point.
F) Neither the Lions nor the Cardinals could win their remaining 6 games either. The Lions would win Head to Head Competition against the Bears (beat them twice). The Cardinals, meanwhile, would win based on Common Opponents, as they would be 2-2 vs. the Lions, Saints, and Rams while the Bears would be 1-3 against those same teams.
So even if the Bears and Seahawks somehow end up tied … they would lose out on the #1 Seed because the Seahawks would have a better conference record, even if Seattle only wins 2 of their final 5 games. In order to actually get the #1 Seed, the Bears would in essence need an absolute collapse by the Seahawks, the Saints, and the Panthers. Ain’t gonna happen.
Now we’ll turn our attention to our own division, to see if nightmares can come true and just how likely it is that the Seahawks lose the #1 Seed and the NFC West to their division rivals. We start with the team that has garnered a lot of attention lately after winning their last 3 games in a row ...
Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
Week 1 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Loss 24-27)
Week 2— vs. Detroit Lions [6-4] (Win 25-21)
Week 3 – at New Orleans Saints [8-2] (Loss 7-31)
Week 4 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8] (Win 13-10)
Week 5 – vs. Carolina Panthers [7-3] (Win 22-6)
Week 6 – at San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Loss 20-32)
Week 7 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [10-1] (Loss 22-34)
Week 8 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-8] (Win 27-13)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Houston Texans [2-8] (Win 27-24)
Week 11 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-9] (Win 27-14)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [7-3]
Week 13 – at Philadelphia Eagles [6-5]
Week 14 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 15 – at Tennessee Titans [4-6]
Week 16 – at Seattle Seahawks [10-1]
Week 17 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-4]
Record of Remaining Opponents 37-25 (.5967)
Strength of Victory … 20-39 (.3389)
We’ll start by assuming many of the exact same circumstances. In order to end up tied with Seahawks for the #1 Seed, the Cardinals would first have to win all of their remaining 6 games. Then ...
The Seahawks would have to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games to the 49ers, the Saints, and of course the Cardinals. That would put the Hawks at 12-4.
The Saints would have to finish 11-5. Let’s have the Saints losing both Panther games (home and away) and to the Rams in Week 15. The Saints would go 3-3 down the stretch in this scenario.
We’ll have the Panthers beat the Saints twice, Tampa Bay at home, and the Falcons on the road … but losing to Miami on the road next week and the Jets at home in Week 15. So, the Panthers would end up going 4-2 … and finishing up the season at 11-5 in this scenario.
We’ll have the 49ers somehow lose to the Rams at home (they played them tough at home last year), but win the rest of their games as well to go to 11-5.
As far as the Lions are concerned, let’s say they win 4 of their last 6 games (I’d say that’s fairly realistic), losing to both the Packers and the suddenly invigorated Giants to finish up 10-6.
The Chicago Bears have 6 games remaining as well. Let’s have them winning half of their games, beating the Vikings, the Browns, and the Cowboys at home … but losing to the Rams, the Eagles, and the Packers. They’d finish 9-7.
So after all of that, the Seahawks and Cardinals end up tied both for the NFC West and the conference’s best record. Again, since the two teams are in the same division, we would use the “To Break a Tie Within a Division” rules. So, here we go …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
In this scenario, the Cardinals and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. We move on to the next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Cardinals ...
St. Louis Rams (Loss 24-27)
San Francisco 49ers (Loss 20-32)
Seattle Seahawks (Loss 22-34)
St. Louis Rams (WIN in this scenario)
Seattle Seahawks (WIN in this scenario)
San Francisco 49ers (WIN in this scenario)
Cardinals would be 3-3 against the NFC West.
Seahawks …
San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Win 29-3)
Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Win 34-22)
St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 14-9)
San Francisco 49ers (LOSS in this scenario)
Arizona Cardinals (LOSS in this scenario)
St. Louis Rams (WIN in this scenario)
Seahawks would be 4-2 vs. the NFC West.
So even if the Cardinals win all 6 of their remaining games … and the Seahawks only win 2 of their remaining 5 … the Seahawks would STILL beat them out for the division AND the #1 Seed because they would have a better record against the NFC West.
All the Seahawks would have to do is to win 1 of their remaining 3 games against the NFC West Teams to beat out the Cardinals for the division.
In Summary, for the Cardinals to tie for the top spot in the NFC the following would have to happen:
A) The Cardinals would have to win their remaining 6 games in a row.
B) The Seahawks would need to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games.
C) The Saints would have to lose 3 of their remaining 6 games (including to the Panthers twice).
D) The Panthers would have to do no better than 4-2 the rest of the way.
What about Harbaugh’s boys? Will he be dropping more F bombs at the end of the season? Let’s find out ...
San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
Week 1 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Win 34-28)
Week 2 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 3-29)
Week 3 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 7-27)
Week 4 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 35-11)
Week 5 – vs. Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 34-3)
Week 6 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 32-20)
Week 7 – at Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 8 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 42-10)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Loss 9-10)
Week 11 – at New Orleans Saints [7-2] (Loss 20-23)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – at Washington Redskins [3-7]
Week 13 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 14 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [10-1]
Week 15 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8]
Week 16 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-8]
Week 17 – at Arizona Cardinals [6-4]
Record of Remaining Opponents 27-34 (.4426)
Strength of Victory … 23-37 (.3833)
We’ll start with many of exact same circumstances. In order to end up tied with Seahawks for the #1 Seed, the 49ers would first have to win all of their remaining 6 games. That puts them at 12-4.
After that ...
The Seahawks would have to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games. Let’s have them losing again to the 49ers, the Saints, and the Giants on the road. That would have the Hawks ending up at 12-4.
The Saints would have to finish 11-5. Let’s have the Saints losing both Panther games (home and away) and to the Rams in Week 15. The Saints would go 3-3 down the stretch in this scenario.
We’ll have the Panthers beat the Saints twice, Tampa Bay at home, and the Falcons on the road … but losing to Miami on the road next week and the Jets at home in Week 15. So, the Panthers would end up going 4-2 … and finishing up the season at 11-5 in this scenario.
We’ll further predict that the Cardinals lose to the Seahawks, the Colts, and the 49ers (obviously in this scenario) … and beat the Eagles, Rams, and Titans to finish 9-7. That should happen.
As far as the Lions are concerned, let’s say they win 4 of their last 6 games (I’d say that’s fairly realistic), losing to both the Packers and the suddenly invigorated Giants to finish up 10-6.
The Chicago Bears have 6 games remaining as well. Let’s have them winning half of their games, beating the Vikings, the Browns, and the Cowboys at home … but losing to the Rams, the Eagles, and the Packers. They’d finish 9-7.
If all of those things actually came to fruition … and the Seahawks and 49ers ended up tied for the division lead … here is how the tie would be broken ...
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
In this scenario, San Francisco and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. We move on to the next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
49ers …
Seattle Seahawks (Loss 3-29)
St. Louis Rams (Win 35-11)
Arizona Cardinals (Win 32-20)
St. Louis Rams [4-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Seattle Seahawks [10-1] (WIN in this scenario)
Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (WIN in this scenario)
The 49ers Would Be 5-1 Against the NFC West
Seahawks …
San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Win 29-3)
Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Win 34-22)
St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 14-9)
San Francisco 49ers (LOSS in this scenario)
Arizona Cardinals (WIN in this scenario)
St. Louis Rams (WIN in this scenario)
Seahawks would be 5-1 vs. the NFC West.
They would still be tied in this scenario, so we move on to the 3rd Tiebreaker …
Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games …
Again, in this scenario we’re going to assume that the 49ers win out the remainder of their games. Here are the games that the 49ers and Seahawks Played in Common along with their record against each …
49ers …
Indianapolis … Loss
at Seattle … Loss
at St. Louis … Win
Houston … Win
Arizona … Win
at Tennessee … Win
at Jacksonville … Win
Carolina … Loss
at New Orleans …Loss
St. Louis … (WIN in this scenario)
Seattle … (WIN in this scenario)
at Tampa Bay … (WIN in this scenario)
Atlanta … (WIN in this scenario)
at Arizona … (WIN in this scenario)
49ers Record in Common Games … 10-4
Seahawks …
at Carolina … Win
San Francisco … Win
Jacksonville … Win
at Houston … Win
at Indianapolis … Loss
Tennessee … Win
at Arizona … Win
at St. Louis … Win
Tampa Bay … Win
at Atlanta … Win
New Orleans …(LOSS in this scenario)
at San Francisco … (LOSS in this scenario)
Arizona … (WIN in this scenario)
St. Louis … (WIN in this scenario)
Seahawks Record in Common Games … 11-3
So Even if the Seahawks would lose to the 49ers, Saints, and Giants in this scenario, they’d STILL walk away with the NFC West and the #1 Seed.
Let’s wake up and and return once again to Terra Firma ...
Splashdown …
Back to life … back to reality …
Alright, let’s turn our attention to the 2 teams that could actually challenge the Seahawks the rest of the way ...
Carolina Panthers (7-3)
Week 1 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [10-1] (Loss 7-12)
Week 2 – at Buffalo Bills [4-7] (Loss 23-24)
Week 3 – vs. New York Giants [4-6] (Win 38-0)
Week 4 – BYE
Week 5 – at Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Loss 6-22)
Week 6 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-8] (Win 35-10)
Week 7 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 30-15)
Week 8 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8] (Win 31-13)
Week 9 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-8] (Win 34-10)
Week 10 – at San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Win 10-9)
Week 11 – vs. New England Patriots [7-3] (Win 24-20)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – at Miami Dolphins [5-5]
Week 13 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8]
Week 14 – at New Orleans Saints [8-2]
Week 15 – vs. New York Jets [5-5]
Week 16 – vs. New Orleans Saints [8-2]
Week 17 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-8]
Record of Remaining Opponents 22-28 (.440)
Strength of Victory … 27-43 (.3857)
In this scenario, let’s assume that Carolina wins out the rest of its 6 games while Seattle ends up losing to both San Francisco and New Orleans. So, both clubs would come in at 13-3.
If Carolina wins the remainder of its games, then New Orleans would finish 12-4, as they would lose to the Panthers twice.
With the way Carolina has been playing of late, I’d say that’s a fairly realistic possibility. If that came to pass, here’s how the tiebreakers would work …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
Seattle Won 12-7 in Week 1
This scenario is pretty straightforward. Because Seattle won against the Panthers clear back in Week 1, the Seahawks would win the tiebreaker and be the #1 Seed. Who would have believed that a win clear back in Week 1 could be as significant as it appears it’s going to be?
Lastly, let’s end by taking a look at Seattle’s greatest competition, those holy rollers from the Bayou who are certainly rolling now ...
New Orleans Saints (8-2)
Week 1 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-8] (Win 23-17)
Week 2 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8] (Win 16-14)
Week 3 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Win 31-7)
Week 4 – vs. Miami Dolphins [5-5] (Win 38-17)
Week 5 – at Chicago Bears [6-4] (Win 26-18)
Week 6 – at New England Patriots [7-3] (Loss 27-30)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – vs. Buffalo Bills [3-7] (Win 35-17)
Week 9 – at New York Jets [5-5] (Loss 20-26)
Week 10 -- vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 49-17)
Week 11 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Win 23-20)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-8]
Week 13 – at Seattle Seahawks [10-1]
Week 14 – vs. Carolina Panthers [7-3]
Week 15 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 16 – at Carolina Panthers [7-3]
Week 17 -- vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8]
Record of Remaining Opponents 25-26 (.490)
Strength of Victory … 36-45 (.4444)
In this scenario, let’s assume that the Saints win out the remainder of their games (which obviously would mean beating Seattle) … and the Seahawks win out the remainder of their games (minus that loss to New Orleans).
So in that case, each of the teams would finish at 14-2. Here is how that would go …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)…
This scenario is very clear. If Seattle loses to the Saints (even if they win the rest of their games), the Saints would end up with the #1 Seed. If Seattle wins and they end up tied with the Saints, the Seahawks would get the #1 Seed. It’s that clear.
That Saints game on Monday Night, December 2nd at Century Link Field is the biggest game remaining of the Seahawks schedule – at this point in fact, the only one that we could honestly call a “Must Win.”
After a convincing win over the Cowboys (49-17) and a hard fought 23-20 victory against the 49ers, going 6-0 doesn’t sound all that far fetched for this team.
BUT … looking at the Saints remaining schedule (see above) reveals why that might be far harder in reality. Over their last 6 games, the Saints face …
If the Seahawks somehow lose to the Saints, they’ll need help. But Mike Greenberg probably said it best, “The best gift that the Seahawks got this year was the rise of the Carolina Panthers.” With the Saints having to play the Panthers home and away, it’s highly likely that the two teams will at least split. If they do, that would mean that the Saints (even if they beat Seattle) would finish no better than 13-3. The Seahawks then, if they win the rest of their games, would finish 14-2 and still capture the #1 Seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
As we sit right now, your Seattle Seahawks are very much in the catbird seat. With 3 of their last 5 remaining games at home (where they are 23-7 since the start of the Pete Carroll era) and a very mortal Giants team on the road, it looks highly likely that the Seahawks will indeed be the ones to swoop away with the NFC’s #1 Seed.
To put it simply, all the Seahawks have to do is win their remaining 3 games at home. If they do that, regardless of whether or not they win either of their road games and despite what anyone else does, your Seattle Seahawks will be the #1 Seed in the NFC and have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Consider this -- your Seattle Seahawks are a mere 5 home wins away from a trip to the Super Bowl. Put that one under your pillow tonight Seattle fans and sleep well.
Exploring Playoff Scenarios
A 41-20 win against the Vikings, coupled with a 49er Loss to the Saints (2nd Loss in a Row) made Sunday an awesome day for your Seattle Seahawks in their quest for the #1 Playoff Seed. Seattle is in pole position with a 1 ½ lap lead over the Saints ... a 2 ½ lap lead over the Panthers ... and now a full 3 ½ game lead over the 49ers, Cardinals, Lions, and Bears (Oh My!).
950 KJR-am’s Mitch Levy often does a “Mr. Playoffs” segment where he examines all the playoff scenarios. We’re going to do something similar here, taking a look at a few scenarios for the Seahawks top competitors and where they all stand as far as the #1 Seed is concerned at this moment in time. We’ll take a look at each of the NFC’s top teams and examine the possibilities – assuming that the each team somehow ends the season tied with the Seahawks. Before we get in to that though, it’s incumbent to lay out how ties are broken. According to the NFL’s official website any potential ties for the #1 seed would be broken using the Wild Card tiebreakers. On the league’s website, we read …
In other words, if a situation ever presented itself where 2 teams in the same conference (who were not in the same division) ever tied for the conference’s best record, we would use the Wild Card tie breakers in order to decide who ends up with the #1 Seed. The NFL’s official Wild Card tie breakers are as follows …
Source:
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
If two teams are tied and in the same division however, the tiebreaking procedures are a bit different. In this case, it would fall under the “To Break a Tie Within a Division” rules, which are as follows …
Source:
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
Keep those in mind as we move forward. Now, let’s get going by taking a look at each of the Seahawks top competitors in the NFC at this moment in time …
Welcome to Fantasy Island …
Tatoo: ”The Plane Boss, The Plane” …
Welcome to Fantasy Island. The place where all your playoff fantasy dreams can come true. We make our first stop here because it’s only here where these scenarios could ever exist. A wild weekend in the NFL left a logjam of 6-4 Teams all fighting for the playoffs. For sanity’s sake, we won’t even talk about the Eagles, as trying to figure out a scenario in which they’d actually be able to walk away with the #1 Seed would send anyone to Arkham Asylum.
That said, let the dreaming begin, as we explore what it would take for the following teams to walk away with the NFL’s #1 Seed …
Detroit Lions (6-4)
Week 1 – vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-8] (Win 34-24)
Week 2— at Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Loss 21-25)
Week 3 – at Washington Redskins [3-7] (Win 27-20)
Week 4 – vs. Chicago Bears [6-4] (Win 40-32)
Week 5 – at Green Bay Packers [5-5] (Loss 9-22)
Week 6 – at Cleveland Browns [4-6] (Win 31-17)
Week 7 – vs. Cincinnati Bengals [7-4] (Loss 24-27)
Week 8 – vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 31-30)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – at Chicago Bears [6-4] (Win 21-19)
Week 11 – at Pittsburgh Steelers [4-6] (Loss 37-27)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8]
Week 13 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-5]
Week 14 – at Philadelphia Eagles [6-5]
Week 15 – vs. Baltimore Ravens [4-6]
Week 16 – vs. New York Giants [4-6]
Week 17 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-8]
Record of Remaining Opponents 23-38 (.377)
Strength of Victory … 26-34 (.433)
In this scenario, we’re going to assume that the Lions miraculously win out the remaining 6 games of their schedule to get to 12-4. In addition …
The Seahawks would have to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games (extremely unlikely, but let’s say they do for argument’s sake) to the 49ers, the Saints, and the Giants on the road. That would put the Hawks at 12-4.
The Saints finish 11-5. Let’s have the Saints losing both Panther games (home and away)
and to the Rams in Week 15. The Saints would go 3-3 down the stretch in this scenario.
The Saints losing would mean that the Panthers would end up beating them twice. Let’s also have the Panthers finish by beating Tampa Bay at home and the Falcons on the road … but losing to Miami on the road next week and the Jets at home in Week 15. So, the Panthers would end up going 4-2 … and finishing up the season at 11-5.
We’ll have the 49ers somehow lose to the Rams at home (they played them tough at home last year), but win the rest of their games as well to go to 11-5.
The Chicago Bears have 6 games remaining as well. Let’s have them winning half of their games, beating the Vikings, the Browns, and the Cowboys at home … but losing to the Rams, the Eagles, and the Packers. They’d finish 9-7.
The Arizona Cardinals have 6 games remaining and it’s a fairly tough schedule. We’ll have them losing to the Colts, the Seahawks, and the 49ers and also finish at 9-7.
Head spinning yet? That’s more gymnastics than Mary Lou Retton ever performed. After all of that rigamarole, the Lions and Seahawks end up the season tied at 12-4. In that scenario, here is how the tie would be broken …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)… NA
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Lions … 10-2 (assuming wins in each of their last 6 games)
Seahawks … 9-3 (assuming losses against the Saints, 49ers, and Giants)
So the Lions would walk away with the #1 Seed. All it took was:
A) Winning their remaining 6 games in a row.
B) The Seahawks Losing 3 of their remaining 5 games.
C) The Saints losing 3 of their remaining 6 games (including to the Panthers twice).
D) The Panthers doing no better than 4-2 the rest of the way.
E) Neither the Bears nor the Cardinals somehow catching fire and winning their remaining 6 games either.
On to our next fantasy ...
Chicago Bears (6-4)
Week 1 – vs. Cincinnati Bengals [7-4] (Win 24-21)
Week 2— vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-8] (Won 31-30)
Week 3 – at Pittsburgh Steelers [4-6] (Win 40-23)
Week 4 – at Detroit Lions [6-4] (Loss 32-40)
Week 5 – vs. New Orleans Saints [8-2] (Loss 18-26)
Week 6 – vs. New York Giants [4-6] (Win 27-21)
Week 7 – at Washington Redskins [3-7] (Loss 41-45)
Week 8 – BYE
Week 9 – at Green Bay Packers [5-5] (Win 27-20)
Week 10 – vs. Detroit Lions [6-4] (Loss 19-21)
Week 11 – vs. Baltimore Ravens [4-6] (Win 23-20)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 13 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-8]
Week 14 – vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5]
Week 15 – at Cleveland Browns [4-6]
Week 16 – at Philadelphia Eagles [6-5]
Week 17 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-5]
Record of Remaining Opponents 26-35 (.426)
Strength of Victory … 26-35 (.426)
Again in this scenario, we’re going to assume that the Bears miraculously win out the remaining 6 games of their schedule to get to 12-4. Let’s have many of the exact same circumstances play out, this time with the Bears. In addition to the Bears winning out, the following things would have to happen for them to end up tied with the Seahawks …
The Seahawks would have to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games (extremely unlikely, but let’s say they do for argument’s sake) to the 49ers, the Saints, and the Giants on the road. That would put the Hawks at 12-4.
The Saints would have to finish 11-5. Let’s have the Saints losing both Panther games (home and away) and to the Rams in Week 15. The Saints would go 3-3 down the stretch in this scenario.
We’ll have the Panthers beat the Saints twice, Tampa Bay at home, and the Falcons on the road … but losing to Miami on the road next week and the Jets at home in Week 15. So, the Panthers would end up going 4-2 … and finishing up the season at 11-5 in this scenario.
We’ll have the 49ers somehow lose to the Rams at home (they played them tough at home last year), but win the rest of their games as well to go to 11-5.
As far as the Lions are concerned, let’s say they win 4 of their last 6 games (I’d say that’s fairly realistic), losing to both the Packers and the suddenly invigorated Giants to finish up 10-6.
And let’s say that the Cardinals lose to the Seahawks, the Colts, and the 49ers … and again beat the Eagles, Rams, and Titans to finish 9-7. Pretty realistic too.
So in our little scenario here, the Bears and the Seahawks both finish up 12-4, tied for the best record in the NFC. Here is how the tie would be broken …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)… NA
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Bears … 8-4 vs. the NFC (assuming wins in each of their last 6 games)
Seahawks … 9-3 vs. the NFC (assuming losses against the Saints, 49ers, and Giants)
In summary, for the Bears to have even a shot at the #1 Seed, the following would have to take place:
A) The Bears would have to win their remaining 6 games in a row.
B) The Seahawks would need to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games.
C) The Saints would have to lose 3 of their remaining 6 games (including to the Panthers twice).
D) The Panthers would have to do no better than 4-2 the rest of the way.
E) The 49ers would need to finish 11-5 or below. If they finished 12-4 and tied the Bears, San Francisco would finish 9-3 against the conference. The Bears would be only 8-4 vs. the conference, so would lose to the 49ers at that point.
F) Neither the Lions nor the Cardinals could win their remaining 6 games either. The Lions would win Head to Head Competition against the Bears (beat them twice). The Cardinals, meanwhile, would win based on Common Opponents, as they would be 2-2 vs. the Lions, Saints, and Rams while the Bears would be 1-3 against those same teams.
So even if the Bears and Seahawks somehow end up tied … they would lose out on the #1 Seed because the Seahawks would have a better conference record, even if Seattle only wins 2 of their final 5 games. In order to actually get the #1 Seed, the Bears would in essence need an absolute collapse by the Seahawks, the Saints, and the Panthers. Ain’t gonna happen.
Now we’ll turn our attention to our own division, to see if nightmares can come true and just how likely it is that the Seahawks lose the #1 Seed and the NFC West to their division rivals. We start with the team that has garnered a lot of attention lately after winning their last 3 games in a row ...
Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
Week 1 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Loss 24-27)
Week 2— vs. Detroit Lions [6-4] (Win 25-21)
Week 3 – at New Orleans Saints [8-2] (Loss 7-31)
Week 4 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8] (Win 13-10)
Week 5 – vs. Carolina Panthers [7-3] (Win 22-6)
Week 6 – at San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Loss 20-32)
Week 7 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [10-1] (Loss 22-34)
Week 8 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-8] (Win 27-13)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Houston Texans [2-8] (Win 27-24)
Week 11 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-9] (Win 27-14)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [7-3]
Week 13 – at Philadelphia Eagles [6-5]
Week 14 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 15 – at Tennessee Titans [4-6]
Week 16 – at Seattle Seahawks [10-1]
Week 17 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-4]
Record of Remaining Opponents 37-25 (.5967)
Strength of Victory … 20-39 (.3389)
We’ll start by assuming many of the exact same circumstances. In order to end up tied with Seahawks for the #1 Seed, the Cardinals would first have to win all of their remaining 6 games. Then ...
The Seahawks would have to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games to the 49ers, the Saints, and of course the Cardinals. That would put the Hawks at 12-4.
The Saints would have to finish 11-5. Let’s have the Saints losing both Panther games (home and away) and to the Rams in Week 15. The Saints would go 3-3 down the stretch in this scenario.
We’ll have the Panthers beat the Saints twice, Tampa Bay at home, and the Falcons on the road … but losing to Miami on the road next week and the Jets at home in Week 15. So, the Panthers would end up going 4-2 … and finishing up the season at 11-5 in this scenario.
We’ll have the 49ers somehow lose to the Rams at home (they played them tough at home last year), but win the rest of their games as well to go to 11-5.
As far as the Lions are concerned, let’s say they win 4 of their last 6 games (I’d say that’s fairly realistic), losing to both the Packers and the suddenly invigorated Giants to finish up 10-6.
The Chicago Bears have 6 games remaining as well. Let’s have them winning half of their games, beating the Vikings, the Browns, and the Cowboys at home … but losing to the Rams, the Eagles, and the Packers. They’d finish 9-7.
So after all of that, the Seahawks and Cardinals end up tied both for the NFC West and the conference’s best record. Again, since the two teams are in the same division, we would use the “To Break a Tie Within a Division” rules. So, here we go …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
In this scenario, the Cardinals and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. We move on to the next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Cardinals ...
St. Louis Rams (Loss 24-27)
San Francisco 49ers (Loss 20-32)
Seattle Seahawks (Loss 22-34)
St. Louis Rams (WIN in this scenario)
Seattle Seahawks (WIN in this scenario)
San Francisco 49ers (WIN in this scenario)
Cardinals would be 3-3 against the NFC West.
Seahawks …
San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Win 29-3)
Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Win 34-22)
St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 14-9)
San Francisco 49ers (LOSS in this scenario)
Arizona Cardinals (LOSS in this scenario)
St. Louis Rams (WIN in this scenario)
Seahawks would be 4-2 vs. the NFC West.
So even if the Cardinals win all 6 of their remaining games … and the Seahawks only win 2 of their remaining 5 … the Seahawks would STILL beat them out for the division AND the #1 Seed because they would have a better record against the NFC West.
All the Seahawks would have to do is to win 1 of their remaining 3 games against the NFC West Teams to beat out the Cardinals for the division.
In Summary, for the Cardinals to tie for the top spot in the NFC the following would have to happen:
A) The Cardinals would have to win their remaining 6 games in a row.
B) The Seahawks would need to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games.
C) The Saints would have to lose 3 of their remaining 6 games (including to the Panthers twice).
D) The Panthers would have to do no better than 4-2 the rest of the way.
What about Harbaugh’s boys? Will he be dropping more F bombs at the end of the season? Let’s find out ...
San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
Week 1 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Win 34-28)
Week 2 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 3-29)
Week 3 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 7-27)
Week 4 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 35-11)
Week 5 – vs. Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 34-3)
Week 6 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 32-20)
Week 7 – at Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 8 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 42-10)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Loss 9-10)
Week 11 – at New Orleans Saints [7-2] (Loss 20-23)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – at Washington Redskins [3-7]
Week 13 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 14 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [10-1]
Week 15 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8]
Week 16 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-8]
Week 17 – at Arizona Cardinals [6-4]
Record of Remaining Opponents 27-34 (.4426)
Strength of Victory … 23-37 (.3833)
We’ll start with many of exact same circumstances. In order to end up tied with Seahawks for the #1 Seed, the 49ers would first have to win all of their remaining 6 games. That puts them at 12-4.
After that ...
The Seahawks would have to lose 3 of their remaining 5 games. Let’s have them losing again to the 49ers, the Saints, and the Giants on the road. That would have the Hawks ending up at 12-4.
The Saints would have to finish 11-5. Let’s have the Saints losing both Panther games (home and away) and to the Rams in Week 15. The Saints would go 3-3 down the stretch in this scenario.
We’ll have the Panthers beat the Saints twice, Tampa Bay at home, and the Falcons on the road … but losing to Miami on the road next week and the Jets at home in Week 15. So, the Panthers would end up going 4-2 … and finishing up the season at 11-5 in this scenario.
We’ll further predict that the Cardinals lose to the Seahawks, the Colts, and the 49ers (obviously in this scenario) … and beat the Eagles, Rams, and Titans to finish 9-7. That should happen.
As far as the Lions are concerned, let’s say they win 4 of their last 6 games (I’d say that’s fairly realistic), losing to both the Packers and the suddenly invigorated Giants to finish up 10-6.
The Chicago Bears have 6 games remaining as well. Let’s have them winning half of their games, beating the Vikings, the Browns, and the Cowboys at home … but losing to the Rams, the Eagles, and the Packers. They’d finish 9-7.
If all of those things actually came to fruition … and the Seahawks and 49ers ended up tied for the division lead … here is how the tie would be broken ...
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
In this scenario, San Francisco and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. We move on to the next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
49ers …
Seattle Seahawks (Loss 3-29)
St. Louis Rams (Win 35-11)
Arizona Cardinals (Win 32-20)
St. Louis Rams [4-6] (WIN in this scenario)
Seattle Seahawks [10-1] (WIN in this scenario)
Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (WIN in this scenario)
The 49ers Would Be 5-1 Against the NFC West
Seahawks …
San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Win 29-3)
Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Win 34-22)
St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 14-9)
San Francisco 49ers (LOSS in this scenario)
Arizona Cardinals (WIN in this scenario)
St. Louis Rams (WIN in this scenario)
Seahawks would be 5-1 vs. the NFC West.
They would still be tied in this scenario, so we move on to the 3rd Tiebreaker …
Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games …
Again, in this scenario we’re going to assume that the 49ers win out the remainder of their games. Here are the games that the 49ers and Seahawks Played in Common along with their record against each …
49ers …
Indianapolis … Loss
at Seattle … Loss
at St. Louis … Win
Houston … Win
Arizona … Win
at Tennessee … Win
at Jacksonville … Win
Carolina … Loss
at New Orleans …Loss
St. Louis … (WIN in this scenario)
Seattle … (WIN in this scenario)
at Tampa Bay … (WIN in this scenario)
Atlanta … (WIN in this scenario)
at Arizona … (WIN in this scenario)
49ers Record in Common Games … 10-4
Seahawks …
at Carolina … Win
San Francisco … Win
Jacksonville … Win
at Houston … Win
at Indianapolis … Loss
Tennessee … Win
at Arizona … Win
at St. Louis … Win
Tampa Bay … Win
at Atlanta … Win
New Orleans …(LOSS in this scenario)
at San Francisco … (LOSS in this scenario)
Arizona … (WIN in this scenario)
St. Louis … (WIN in this scenario)
Seahawks Record in Common Games … 11-3
So Even if the Seahawks would lose to the 49ers, Saints, and Giants in this scenario, they’d STILL walk away with the NFC West and the #1 Seed.
Let’s wake up and and return once again to Terra Firma ...
Splashdown …
Back to life … back to reality …
Alright, let’s turn our attention to the 2 teams that could actually challenge the Seahawks the rest of the way ...
Carolina Panthers (7-3)
Week 1 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [10-1] (Loss 7-12)
Week 2 – at Buffalo Bills [4-7] (Loss 23-24)
Week 3 – vs. New York Giants [4-6] (Win 38-0)
Week 4 – BYE
Week 5 – at Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Loss 6-22)
Week 6 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-8] (Win 35-10)
Week 7 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 30-15)
Week 8 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8] (Win 31-13)
Week 9 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-8] (Win 34-10)
Week 10 – at San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Win 10-9)
Week 11 – vs. New England Patriots [7-3] (Win 24-20)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – at Miami Dolphins [5-5]
Week 13 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8]
Week 14 – at New Orleans Saints [8-2]
Week 15 – vs. New York Jets [5-5]
Week 16 – vs. New Orleans Saints [8-2]
Week 17 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-8]
Record of Remaining Opponents 22-28 (.440)
Strength of Victory … 27-43 (.3857)
In this scenario, let’s assume that Carolina wins out the rest of its 6 games while Seattle ends up losing to both San Francisco and New Orleans. So, both clubs would come in at 13-3.
If Carolina wins the remainder of its games, then New Orleans would finish 12-4, as they would lose to the Panthers twice.
With the way Carolina has been playing of late, I’d say that’s a fairly realistic possibility. If that came to pass, here’s how the tiebreakers would work …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
Seattle Won 12-7 in Week 1
This scenario is pretty straightforward. Because Seattle won against the Panthers clear back in Week 1, the Seahawks would win the tiebreaker and be the #1 Seed. Who would have believed that a win clear back in Week 1 could be as significant as it appears it’s going to be?
Lastly, let’s end by taking a look at Seattle’s greatest competition, those holy rollers from the Bayou who are certainly rolling now ...
New Orleans Saints (8-2)
Week 1 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-8] (Win 23-17)
Week 2 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8] (Win 16-14)
Week 3 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [6-4] (Win 31-7)
Week 4 – vs. Miami Dolphins [5-5] (Win 38-17)
Week 5 – at Chicago Bears [6-4] (Win 26-18)
Week 6 – at New England Patriots [7-3] (Loss 27-30)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – vs. Buffalo Bills [3-7] (Win 35-17)
Week 9 – at New York Jets [5-5] (Loss 20-26)
Week 10 -- vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 49-17)
Week 11 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-4] (Win 23-20)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 12 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-8]
Week 13 – at Seattle Seahawks [10-1]
Week 14 – vs. Carolina Panthers [7-3]
Week 15 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 16 – at Carolina Panthers [7-3]
Week 17 -- vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2-8]
Record of Remaining Opponents 25-26 (.490)
Strength of Victory … 36-45 (.4444)
In this scenario, let’s assume that the Saints win out the remainder of their games (which obviously would mean beating Seattle) … and the Seahawks win out the remainder of their games (minus that loss to New Orleans).
So in that case, each of the teams would finish at 14-2. Here is how that would go …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)…
This scenario is very clear. If Seattle loses to the Saints (even if they win the rest of their games), the Saints would end up with the #1 Seed. If Seattle wins and they end up tied with the Saints, the Seahawks would get the #1 Seed. It’s that clear.
That Saints game on Monday Night, December 2nd at Century Link Field is the biggest game remaining of the Seahawks schedule – at this point in fact, the only one that we could honestly call a “Must Win.”
After a convincing win over the Cowboys (49-17) and a hard fought 23-20 victory against the 49ers, going 6-0 doesn’t sound all that far fetched for this team.
BUT … looking at the Saints remaining schedule (see above) reveals why that might be far harder in reality. Over their last 6 games, the Saints face …
If the Seahawks somehow lose to the Saints, they’ll need help. But Mike Greenberg probably said it best, “The best gift that the Seahawks got this year was the rise of the Carolina Panthers.” With the Saints having to play the Panthers home and away, it’s highly likely that the two teams will at least split. If they do, that would mean that the Saints (even if they beat Seattle) would finish no better than 13-3. The Seahawks then, if they win the rest of their games, would finish 14-2 and still capture the #1 Seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
As we sit right now, your Seattle Seahawks are very much in the catbird seat. With 3 of their last 5 remaining games at home (where they are 23-7 since the start of the Pete Carroll era) and a very mortal Giants team on the road, it looks highly likely that the Seahawks will indeed be the ones to swoop away with the NFC’s #1 Seed.
To put it simply, all the Seahawks have to do is win their remaining 3 games at home. If they do that, regardless of whether or not they win either of their road games and despite what anyone else does, your Seattle Seahawks will be the #1 Seed in the NFC and have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Consider this -- your Seattle Seahawks are a mere 5 home wins away from a trip to the Super Bowl. Put that one under your pillow tonight Seattle fans and sleep well.
