Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century

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Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:57 pm
  • How many top seeds have won a Superbowl this Century?

    2: The 2003 Patriots and the 2009 Saints... it's the same winning rate as the #6 seed....

    #2 Seeds are 4 for 12

    #3 Seeds are 1 for 12

    #4 Seeds are 2 for 12

    #5 Seeds are 1 for 12


    So the next game is important, but it's not "everything".


    But then again, over the history of the NFL, the rate has been much higher... and these things have a way of coming around, numbers always work out that way. So, a top seed is really about "due". :)
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  • I'll maintain that #1 is not particularly important, but homefield advantage is, a bye and only playing a maximum of 1 game on the road is a far easier road than playing two road games or even 3.

    Of the 26 teams that have made it to the big game since 2000, 17 of them have had a first round bye followed by a home game.

    Once you get to that game, history has shown us that nothing you've done until then matters.
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  • It's all about the easiest path. First round bye and 2 home games is the easiest path. Other teams at home don't have near the advantage we have.
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  • Hasn't there been 24 #1 seeds since '00? 2 from each, 12 postseasons, 24 #1 seeds.
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  • ChrisB Bacon wrote:Hasn't there been 24 #1 seeds since '00? 2 from each, 12 postseasons, 24 #1 seeds.



    Yeah-I went through the same thought process and was about to type that response when it occurred to me that, although there have been 24 #1 seeds, there have only been 12 Super Bowl Champions. The 2 of 12 is a reflection of that. That's what the OP is getting at.
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  • I almost wish the number was zero. I enjoy that we do things never done before... ;)
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  • Oh well, better lose a few games then.

    While those stats are interesting I keep going back to this same question: How does anything that happened before this season matter for this season? I say very little.
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  • One thing that concerns me was that if the Falcons were to upset the Saints this Thursday, we win our next two games vs. Saints and Niners, and the Panthers lose one of their next three (which includes a game vs. the Saints), we could mathematically cinch HFA with 3 games to play. That would make it a full month between meaningful games. I'm not sure I'd want that to happen.
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  • We have only made it to that game as a 1 seed, so I'll take meh chances again
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  • ChrisB Bacon wrote:Hasn't there been 24 #1 seeds since '00? 2 from each, 12 postseasons, 24 #1 seeds.


    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    2012

    13?

    And that's NFL seasons, since the superbowls have obviously been played in the following years of 2001-2013
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  • Id guess top seed overall in the NFL. Weren't we the top seed in 2005?
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  • Traditionally the problem with getting the first round bye has been rust, especially since most of the time, teams that have the first round bye have generally locked up a playoff spot for several weeks prior and were coasting. Indy was notorious for this, but even our own 2005 Seahawks had symptoms of this when they played Washington in Jan 2006.

    In too many cases a hot wildcard team could and did play better and knock out the team that coming off an extended vacation played lethargically until it was too late.

    I don't think that will be a problem with this year's Seahawks given our players and coaches.
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  • I don't see that as predictive.

    Too many teams have captured lightning in a bottle and seen mediocre teams land the #1 seed. We've seen the genesis for our kind of record going back to last season. This isn't a team predicated on luck and an easy schedule/division. This 10-1 record has been well earned. Seattle isn't a 9-7 team talent wise where fortune has gifted us 4 wins. It's a dominant team, comfortable with adversity and not prone to beating itself when games get tight.

    I'd also say this is a team that preaches the right things, in terms of finishing and toughness. Teams that won as wild card entries were generally teams that either got healthy late (as we are now) or teams with exceptional fortitude, mental toughness (which we are now), and a good touch of desperation. We handle adversity as well or better than every other team in this league.

    You can't say that about many of the #1 overall seeds in the 2000s. Seattle is not a flawed team with a glaring Achilles heel. It's a team sublimely balanced and comfortable winning in any fashion and playing whatever game a team wants to try to dictate. I don't think there is another team in the NFL that can really claim that. While it's true, some team could just be ridiculously hot heading into the playoffs (Carolina may be that team) -- the fact is, we're extremely well built to counter that kind of team.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:14 am
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:24 am
  • Its just about not getting complacent and getting/being hot at the right time. I trust the leaders of the team, especially/specifically wilson, to prevent any complacency issues we could encounter.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:38 am
  • Like I said... if you go back through all Superbowls -- the rate of#1 seed winning the Superbowl is way higher than it has been this century.

    Before 2k, it used to work out to about 55% of the time....
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:45 am
  • The couple wild card Super Bowl winners merely serve to give hope to those teams that couldn't get it done to win their division. Look at how many wild cards have won it throughout history.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:53 am
  • My feeling is that teams that make #1 often are able to do it because of baby schedules. Just look at the Falcons last year. No way anyone thought they were far and away the best team in the league the way their record made it look.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:58 am
  • A truly dominant, dynastic team wins the top speed and powers through the Super Bowl. Lucking our way to a Super Bowl win isn't my dream, anyway. I think Carroll might be smart and innovative enough to produce a dynasty amid the fog of parity.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:01 am
  • I tend to think that #1 seeds result from cake schedules, while the lower seeds are more battle-tested and therefore, counterintuitively, more ready for playoff showdowns. Seattle, however, is both.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:03 am
  • HFA doesn't extend through the superbowl. I'd much rather see stats on how #1 seeds have done through their respective conference playoffs. The reason we want the HFA is not because it will help us WIN the superbowl, it's because it gives us the edge to GET TO the superbowl. Don't mistake getting there with winning it. Odds of their being a Jets/Giants team in the superbowl are fairly low, so there is no true HFA in the superbowl. The idea is to get the best route for your team to be successful in the playoffs. Nobody holds a better HFA than the Seahawks. This is why we need HFA, not to win the superbowl, but to make our odds of getting there increase. Once you get there, then everything is gone, W/L records don't matter, nothing matters except what happens on that day.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:05 am
  • Possibly a more recent factor has been that there are now two wildcard teams and four divisions. Many times, the wildcard in the #5 slot is a much better team than the division winner in the #4 slot. They take out the division winner and advance to play the #1 team. Meanwhile, the #3 team advances to play the #2 team. That #3 team may not be as good as that #5 wildcard team, meaning the #1 has a tougher matchup than the #2.

    This year, we're most likely to face Carolina, which would be the #5 team. That's the toughest matchup we could face IMO. That's why so many wildcard teams have slipped in and so many #1's have fallen. Last year, we were the #5 team and nobody wanted to face us. We knocked off the #4 and nearly knocked off the #1 seed.

    In the days of three divisions, the Wildcards played each other first. They literally were playing the 5th best team in the playoffs, not the 8-8 winner of the NFCLeast. And the #2 and #3 got byes. meaning the #1 had the unique advantage of being the only team with two weeks rest facing an opponent who did not have two weeks rest. In those days, wildcards beating #1's was rare.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:09 am
  • We'll win, don't worry. I feel so confident because we match up so well against NO. The only mismatch they present for us is that they have a great TE, and we've struggled to cover them in the past. However, Graham is a bit hobbled right now. I posted on the NFL nation board before the Jets/Saints game that I thought the Jets would win for a few different reasons. Those same reasons apply to Seattle because we have a similar team philosophy to NYJ other than the fact that they have much much worse personnel.

    This is what I said
    Every Saints game has implications for the Seahawks given the importance of home field. I have this weird feeling that NYJs are going to upset the Saints today. I could be made to look like a fool but I think that the Jets matchup well against them. Here's why:

    -Drew Brees has struggled on the road this year as opposed to at home.
    -The Jets actually have a very good D, both passing and especially rushing.
    - The Pats beat the Saints, and the Jets beat the Pats...it's possible
    -The Ryan brothers know each other well, but I'll give the upper hand to Rex. He will know what his brother is going to bring at his offense. I expect him to be able to do some things that will expoit the aggresive Saints D.

    23-20 Jets


    http://seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=78592&start=0

    The Saints are undefeated at home, but have played some very marginal football on the road.
    The Jets are great at running the football, and stopping the pass. (sound like anyone you know?) Plus, add the fact that we can also throw the ball unlike the Jets.
    Another reason, which goes without explaining is the 12th man- the reason why this is so much of a factor for offenses like NO is because they run a "tempo" offense. It's a huge part of what they do. It's not no-huddle, but it's very rhythmic. This rhythm is very hard to execute in Seattle.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:25 am
  • SalishHawkFan wrote:Possibly a more recent factor has been that there are now two wildcard teams and four divisions. Many times, the wildcard in the #5 slot is a much better team than the division winner in the #4 slot. They take out the division winner and advance to play the #1 team. Meanwhile, the #3 team advances to play the #2 team. That #3 team may not be as good as that #5 wildcard team, meaning the #1 has a tougher matchup than the #2.

    This year, we're most likely to face Carolina, which would be the #5 team. That's the toughest matchup we could face IMO. That's why so many wildcard teams have slipped in and so many #1's have fallen. Last year, we were the #5 team and nobody wanted to face us. We knocked off the #4 and nearly knocked off the #1 seed.

    In the days of three divisions, the Wildcards played each other first. They literally were playing the 5th best team in the playoffs, not the 8-8 winner of the NFCLeast. And the #2 and #3 got byes. meaning the #1 had the unique advantage of being the only team with two weeks rest facing an opponent who did not have two weeks rest. In those days, wildcards beating #1's was rare.



    Bingo! That's a great post!

    Also like what Lurkerguy said below.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:44 am
  • kidhawk wrote:HFA doesn't extend through the superbowl. I'd much rather see stats on how #1 seeds have done through their respective conference playoffs. The reason we want the HFA is not because it will help us WIN the superbowl, it's because it gives us the edge to GET TO the superbowl. Don't mistake getting there with winning it. Odds of their being a Jets/Giants team in the superbowl are fairly low, so there is no true HFA in the superbowl. The idea is to get the best route for your team to be successful in the playoffs. Nobody holds a better HFA than the Seahawks. This is why we need HFA, not to win the superbowl, but to make our odds of getting there increase. Once you get there, then everything is gone, W/L records don't matter, nothing matters except what happens on that day.


    I think I saw a breakdown of "participants" in the SB along w/ their seed value and the #1 and #2 seeds had about a 50% participation rate.

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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:45 am
  • SalishHawkFan wrote:Possibly a more recent factor has been that there are now two wildcard teams and four divisions. Many times, the wildcard in the #5 slot is a much better team than the division winner in the #4 slot. They take out the division winner and advance to play the #1 team. Meanwhile, the #3 team advances to play the #2 team. That #3 team may not be as good as that #5 wildcard team, meaning the #1 has a tougher matchup than the #2.

    This year, we're most likely to face Carolina, which would be the #5 team. That's the toughest matchup we could face IMO. That's why so many wildcard teams have slipped in and so many #1's have fallen. Last year, we were the #5 team and nobody wanted to face us. We knocked off the #4 and nearly knocked off the #1 seed.

    In the days of three divisions, the Wildcards played each other first. They literally were playing the 5th best team in the playoffs, not the 8-8 winner of the NFCLeast. And the #2 and #3 got byes. meaning the #1 had the unique advantage of being the only team with two weeks rest facing an opponent who did not have two weeks rest. In those days, wildcards beating #1's was rare.


    Great post. However, I don't think we have to worry about it. #1- I don't think we're going to lose based on my above post. #2- Even if we did, we have a much easier schedule @ SF @ NY- pardon my optimism, but there no way in heck we lose back to back games. We have SF's number, and they've already lost 2 home games this year. NYG may be a bit of a trap game, but the way that ELI is throwing INT parties this year, we should be able to take care of business. This team tends to play well in NY (foreshadowing?). Then 2 home games. I won't look past STL or AZ but we should win them. Take NO's remaining schedule:

    - @ ATL (no guarantee. These teams hate each other as much as we hate the 9ers). W
    -@ Sea - For the sake of hypothetical I'm calling this a L, but I don't think it will be.
    -Vs. Panthers W at home
    - @ Rams Will be a huge trap game for them. Coming of a huge win against a division fo. STL can shock the world with their pass rush and special teams (See. INDI game) We'll call it a W for the hypothetical
    -@ Carolina- I just think they lose this game. On the road, against a team with good D, and running game (like us).
    -Vs. TB- W

    In this scenario, we could still win out versus SF, NY, AZ, STL and I would put my money on NO losing at least one of the remaining 6 games if not 2. I think NO is overrated and an 12-4 or 11-5 team. SF almost did them in their own place, and probably should have without that bogus call.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:10 pm
  • Yea, the only issue I have is that after that horrific call against the niners, I am starting to get that crazy conspiracy theory voice in my head.

    This is the NFL doing a "makeup year with Brees" for Bountygate.

    I have these voices in the back of my skull because I am psychologically damaged by Dikembe Mutombo and the post 9/11 Mariners slump that ruined 116 wins...
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:17 pm
  • The ball is a funny shape...it bounces weird.
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Re: Top Seeds are 2 out of 12 this Century
Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:45 pm
  • The_Z_Man wrote:Yea, the only issue I have is that after that horrific call against the niners, I am starting to get that crazy conspiracy theory voice in my head.

    This is the NFL doing a "makeup year with Brees" for Bountygate.

    I have these voices in the back of my skull because I am psychologically damaged by Dikembe Mutombo and the post 9/11 Mariners slump that ruined 116 wins...


    Don't worry about that. If anything the league would not like the Saints for Bountygate. I believe there are certain teams whom the league would prefer to win, but I don't think they'd go as far as trying to rig a game. The call was bang/bang and it was an aggressive hit.
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  • It would be three teams if not for the fiasco that was SB 40.
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  • kearly wrote:It would be three teams if not for the fiasco that was SB 40.



    Trying not to think of that game...


    Which brings up -- the two crappiest locations for a Superbowl, ever?

    Detroit and New Jersey... :pukeface:

    It almost seems like destiny. :?
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  • kidhawk wrote:HFA doesn't extend through the superbowl. I'd much rather see stats on how #1 seeds have done through their respective conference playoffs. The reason we want the HFA is not because it will help us WIN the superbowl, it's because it gives us the edge to GET TO the superbowl. Don't mistake getting there with winning it. Odds of their being a Jets/Giants team in the superbowl are fairly low, so there is no true HFA in the superbowl. The idea is to get the best route for your team to be successful in the playoffs. Nobody holds a better HFA than the Seahawks. This is why we need HFA, not to win the superbowl, but to make our odds of getting there increase. Once you get there, then everything is gone, W/L records don't matter, nothing matters except what happens on that day.



    I was thinking the same thing. How many number ones make it to the Super Bowl?
    Also, how many number ones enjoy the definitive HFA that we have? Maybe NO... Maybe.
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