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Week 11: Seahawks-Vikings Game Preview …
November 4, 2012 … those pointy headed raiders from the North made their way in their longships with a 5-3 record, hoping to plunder a victory at Century Link Field. What they got instead was a fiery Viking funeral, as Marshawn Lynch rumbled for 124 yards and Russell Wilson torched them with 3 Touchdown Passes. Will we see a repeat of that drubbing this Sunday? Could be. While the Seahawks put together their most complete performance of the season in fricasseeing the Falcons last Sunday … the Vikings are embroiled in the morass of a 2-7 season that has gone horribly awry. Can the Seahawks once again repel this barbarian horde and give them a one way ticket to Valhalla? Let’s take a closer look at this match-up …
Vikings Passing Offense …
[tdo=4]Vikings vs. Seahawks PASS Offense Comparison …[/tdo]
Many people out there associate the Vikings Offense with Adrian Peterson and naturally assume that the running game comprises the bulk of their offense. The numbers though tell a different story …
In truth, the Vikings employ primarily a short to intermediate passing attack, hitting backs in the flat, short crossing routes, WR screens, and so on.
That means, that how the Seahawks handle QB Christian Ponder (6’2” 229 Pounds) and the Viking passing attack will go a long ways towards determining the outcome of this game. Let’s take a look at Ponder’s numbers and what the Vikings have done under his leadership this season …
[tdo=9]Christian Ponder’s 2013 Passing Statistics[/tdo]
With Christian Ponder at the helm this year, the Viking Offense has scored …
24 Points against Detroit [Week 1]
30 Points against Chicago [Week 2]
27 Points against Cleveland [Week 3]
31 Points against Green Bay [Week 8]
23 Points against Dallas [Week 9]
34 Points against Washington [Week 10]
Who have his main weapons been? Let’s Ponder those for a few moments …
[tdo=9](2013) Vikings Top Receiving Targets[/tdo]
The Vikings passing attack is a far cry from the one they saw last week. While the Vikings Offense does have 27 passing plays of 20 yards or more this season (18th Overall) … Minnesota comes in to this game averaging only 6.4 yards/pass (5th Lowest in the league). Last season, the Vikings Offense averaged 6.1 yards per pass attempt (2nd Lowest in the NFL), as much of that offense was predicated upon getting Percy Harvin the ball on bubble screens, little dump-offs, and short slants and allowing him to do the rest. I wouldn’t expect too many long bombs in this game, as Ponder simply doesn’t have the arm for it. Even a game manager can be dangerous though. Let’s take a look at some of his weapons …
WR’s Jerome Simpson (6’2” 190 Pounds) and Greg Jennings (6’0” 195 Lbs) have been the Vikings go to receivers this year and they have managed to make some plays downfield. Simpson has legitimate 4.4 speed, but he is more the straight line speed type and doesn’t really possess the Golden Tate kind of juke your socks off kind of elusiveness. Simpson made headlines this week for all the wrong reasons. He was arrested recently on suspicion of DUI and could be facing up to 3 years in prison if convicted. As far as this game is concerned however, coach Leslie Frazier indicated that he’ll play.
Greg Jennings (the former Packer), on the other hand, is a great route runner and fairly shifty, so is a guy that can hurt you if he’s not properly accounted for. With Brandon Browner going down with a groin injury, it’s certainly going to be interesting to see how CB Walter Thurmond (5’11” 190 Pounds) [who has better overall coverage skills] handles him this week. Of course, Jennings may not be 100% himself either, as he was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday with an Achilles injury.
TE Kyle Rudolph (6’6” 258 Lbs) is another guy that bears watching on Sunday, though his status is up in the air due to a foot injury. Rudolph missed last week’s game against the Redskins (foot issue) and didn’t practice at all this week. He’s officially listed as being out for this game, which is a big blow for the Vikings, as last season Rudolph led the team with 9 receiving TD’s. Because of the health issues surrounding Rudolph, Seattle fans will see a lot of his backup and a name they are fairly familiar with – former Seahawks TE John Carlson (6’5” 248 Pounds). Carlson was never known as a particularly strong blocker, so I’d look for the Legion of Boom to give him a warm welcome home and re-acquaint him with the turf.
Rookie WR Cordarrelle Patterson (6’2” 220 Lbs) is a guy who hasn’t garnered a whole lot of attention, but frankly is someone who has the talent to pull a Titus Young in this game if the Seahawks somehow overlook him. Two weeks ago against the Packers, Patterson took a kickoff back 109 yards for the touchdown. He ran a sizzling 4.33 second (40) at the Combine, so is definitely one to watch.
Christian Ponder suffered a separated shoulder in his non-throwing left arm against the Redskins last week. He has been a limited participant in practice all this week and is listed as Probable, but who knows exactly what the Seahawks will actually see from #7 this Sunday. Of course, there is one who will be garnering even more of the Seahawk Defense’s attention this Sunday …
Vikings 2013 Rushing Offense …
[tdo=3]Vikings vs. Seahawks RUSH Offense Comparison (w/NFL Rankings)[/tdo]
Though nearly 60% of the Vikings Offense has come via the air, truly halting the Vikings Offense has to start with having all eyes on #28. When Seattle faced the Vikings back in Week 9 last year, RB Adrian Peterson (6’1” 217 pounds) was the league’s leading rusher (775 yards), averaging 4.7 yards/carry (5th Best in the league at that point.). Though he’s a bit behind in terms of rushing yardage (768 yards) and yards/carry (4.5) this year, he is still obviously quite dangerous and integral to what the Vikings do on offense. To give you a sense of just how integral, just consider these numbers …
Adrian Peterson’s Combined Numbers
768 Rushing Yards
163 Passing Yards
931 Total Yards … the Vikings as a team have 2,955 Total Yards
[Peterson has been responsible for 31.5% of all the Vikings yards gained.]
Peterson has 9 TD’s Running … and 1 TD Passing.
The Vikings as a team have 14 TD’s Rushing … 8 TD’s. Passing
[Adrian Peterson has accounted for 45.45% of all the Vikings Touchdowns this year.]
Peterson is one of the true elite running backs in the game … and perhaps one of the best backs that has ever played. As a power runner with size (6’1” 217 pounds), speed (he ran a 40 in 4.4 seconds at the combine), elusiveness, and power … he and Marshawn Lynch are cut from the same cloth. Like Lynch, he is among the very best in terms of continuing to gain yardage after contact, so the Seahawks Defense will have to be on their game in order to stop him. Though the Hawks ended up beating the Vikings in Seattle 30-20 last season, Adrian Peterson caused a lot of damage along the way …
Adrian Peterson’s Rushing Numbers vs. Seattle (11/4/2012) …
17 Attempts … 182 Yards Rushing … 10.7 Yards/Carry … 2 Touchdowns (including one that went for 72 yards).
Clearly, the Seahawks Defense is going to have to do a much better job this time around. Against this guy though, that’s easier said than done. Since 2007, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson have led the NFL in most games with 100 yards rushing. So, he can kind of go off on anyone, no matter how good they are.
Interestingly enough, the Vikings come in to this game with just 210 Rushing Attempts on the season (7th Fewest in NFL). That’s definitely surprising, seeing just how much of a weapon Adrian Peterson truly is. Part of that may be due to the fact that the Vikings have been playing from behind and trying to play catch-up, but whatever the case is I’d be pushing hard to give the ball to #28 more if I were a Vikings fan.
Though we can’t say so with absolute certainty where Peterson is going to go on any given play this Sunday, there has been a definite pattern of where he’s gone this season …
As you can see, Peterson has run to daylight off the right side of that Vikings Offensive Line often this season. So RG Brandon Fusco [6’4” 306 Pounds] and big RT Phil Loadholt [6’8” 343 Pounds] have been the ones to open up the holes for him. Though Peterson did score 2 TD’s this last Sunday, he managed only 75 yards (3.8 yards/carry) against the Redskins. I would say much of that would be attributed to the fact that Loadholt missed last week due to a concussion. DE Red Bryant (6’4” 323 Pounds) and Seattle’s, DT Jordan Hill (6’1” 303 Pounds), and DT Clinton McDonald (6’2” 297 Pounds) will certainly be key this Sunday because chances are, Peterson will be coming their way.
After giving up 134 yards (5.2 yds/rush) to Zac Stacy … and 158 yards (5.6 yards/rush) to Mike James in back to back weeks, the Seahawks Defense put the clamps down on the Falcons, limiting runners to just 64 yards of total offense on the ground. They’re going to have to be just as stingy and play gap control defense again this Sunday unless they want Peterson to give an encore performance. Peterson did not practice on Thursday due to a groin issue, but it’s highly likely that this was merely Leslie Frazier’s way of giving him the day off and that Peterson will be good to go come Sunday.
Let’s turn our attention to the other side of the ball and examine how good of a job the Vikings have been doing at STOPPING the run …
Vikings 2013 Rushing Defense …
[tdo=3]Vikings vs. Seahawks RUSH Defense Comparison (w/NFL Rankings)[/tdo]
The 3 sets of stats that should absolutely jump off the page and smack you in the face are …
31.0 Points/Game Allowed (3rd Most in the Game)
9 Rushes of 20 yards or More Allowed (5th Most in the Game)
9 Rushing Touchdowns Allowed (9th Most in the Game)
Against a Seahawks team that comes in to this game #1 in the league in running the football (153.4 Rushing Yards/Game Avg.), those numbers are pretty finger licking good. Lynch enters Sunday’s contest 2nd in the NFL with 871 yards rushing … 6th overall in terms of average yards/rush (4.6) … and tied for 3rd in the league in rushing TD’s (7).
For all the problems that Vikings have had this year, they have a few players who are adept at stopping opposing runners in the backfield. The best among them this year has to be MIKE LB Erin Henderson (6’3” 236 Pounds), who leads the team in both Tackles (87) and Tackles for Loss (7). Henderson is a tough nosed player who is a good athlete and has great instincts. Defensive End Jared Allen (6’6” 270 Pounds)– who continues to be the lynchpin in this defense – comes in to this game having 4 Tackles for Loss and is a load for any offensive lineman to handle and remains one of the very best DE’s in the league. Others who are an asset stopping the run are DE Brian Robison (6’3” 259 Pounds) [3 Tackles for Loss] and DT Kevin Williams (6’5” 311 Pounds) [1 TFL], who though isn’t the player he once was, turned in a strong performance against the Redskins last week.
They have plenty of problems as well. NT Letroy Guion (6’4” 303 Pounds) has shown that he is a poor fit for the nose tackle position, as he just gets knocked back far too easily. Last year, Pro Football Focus had Guion ranked as the worst DT in all of football. There is a reason they drafted Sharrif Floyd (6’3” 305 Pounds), so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s going to get more playing time moving forward now that Guion has been ruled out of Sunday’s game with what they’re calling a chest injury. Heck, their defense against the run might actually improve. SAM LB Chad Greenway (6’2” 242 Pounds) has struggled against the run simply because he’s still recovering from knee surgery and hasn’t seen his quickness return yet. And while SS Jamarca Sanford (5’10” 200 Pounds) has been an asset against the run, the rest of the secondary have been far more matadors than anything else.
Now what’s interesting to note is that according to the numbers, teams have actually run the ball more against the Seahawks (264 Rushing Attempts) than they have against the Vikings (257 Rushing Attempts). However, in a league that’s become increasingly more pass oriented, it’s important to note when looking at their schedule that the Vikings have played only 3 teams this year who are in the top 10 in terms of rush attempts. Those teams are: Carolina (#5), Washington (#8), and Green Bay (#10). Here is how they have done stopping the run in those 3 games …
Carolina [35-10 LOSS in Week 6] …
39 Rushing Attempts … 131 Yards Rushing … 3.4 Yards/Carry … 2 TD’s Allowed
Deangelo Williams … 17 Carries … 64 Yards … 3.8 Yards/Carry
Green Bay [44-31 LOSS in Week 8] …
42 Rushing Attempts … 182 Yards Rushing … 4.2 Yards/Carry … 2 TD’s Allowed
Eddie Lacy … 29 Carries … 94 Yards … 3.2 Yards/Carry … 1 Rushing TD
James Starks … 7 Carries … 57 Yards … 8.1 Yards/Carry … 1 Rushing TD
Washington [34-27 WIN in Week 10] …
36 Rushing Attempts … 191 Yards Rushing … 5.3 Yards/Carry
Alfred Morris … 26 Carries … 139 Yards Rushing … 5.3 Yards/Carry
Adrian Peterson went off against the Hawks for 182 yards rushing in Seattle last year. But Marshawn Lynch made some noise of his own in that game as well …
(Marshawn Lynch against Vikings in Seattle 11/4/12) …
26 Carries … 124 Yards Rushing … 4.8 Yards/Carry … 1 Rushing TD
Given all of that, I find it very hard to believe that the Vikings are going to have any semblance of success containing the tidal wave that is the NFL’s #1 Rushing Offense in a hostile environment like Century Link Field. So, I’d fully expect the Lynch and the Seahawks to be able to exert their will and for the Vikings to yield more real estate than Windermere ...
Vikings 2013 Passing Defense …
[tdo=3]Vikings vs. Seahawks PASS Defense Comparison (w/NFL Rankings)[/tdo]
Before we get in to the particulars, just let some of those numbers simmer for a moment. The Vikings as a unit …
Give up the 3rd Most Points per Game in the League (31.0 Pts/Game)
Have allowed the 4th Most Passing Yards in the League (2,571)
Are allowing teams to complete 66.9% of their passes against them (3rd Worst)
Are allowing teams to convert an incredible 50% of their 3rd Downs (Worst in NFL)
Have allowed the Most 1st Downs in the League (216)
Have given up (along with Buffalo) 21 Passing Touchdowns (Worst in the NFL)
Not only that, but you know how many of us have been a bit squeamish when Pete Carroll decides to go for it on 4th Down and 1? Well, let me give you some Pepto – teams have gone for it on 4th Down 10 times against the Minnesota Defense this season … they have made it 7 times (a 70% conversion rate).
Reach for the barf bag if you’re a Minnesota fan. A legitimate case could be made that the Minnesota Vikings have the worst pass defense in the NFL right now.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Vikings are without talent or that the Hawks should treat these guys like it’s going to be a ride at Disneyland or anything. We saw how that all went in the first half of the Tampa Bay game. Defensive End Jared Allen (6’6” 270 Pounds) leads the team with 5.0 Sacks and is always a monster, MIKE LB Erin Henderson (6’3” 236 Pounds) can certainly rush the passer (3.0 Sacks), DE’s Brian Robison (6’3” 259 Pounds) and Everson Griffen (6’3” 273 Pounds) have 3 sacks apiece this year and are guys who you always need to account for, and DT Kevin Williams (6’5” 311 Pounds), (2.5 Sacks) is still someone who despite being hampered by injury can still jump up and bite you.
Now if it’s going to be Paul McQuistan (6’6” 315 Pounds) at Left Tackle and James Carpenter (6’5” 321 Pounds) at LG getting most of the reps this weekend and having to face Allen, my blood pressure might be rising a little bit. Russell Wilson has been under pressure on 44% of all his drop-back passes, so the prospect of subjecting him against to the onslaught of one of the league’s best pass rushers makes me want to pop some Xanax. But, Christmas time has arrived early for the Hawks, as Santa has left lots of goodies under the tree for all you good little Seahawk boys and girls out there. Reinforcements have finally arrived, as Gandalf has come charging over the hill with the rescuing armies of Rohan to meet the Uruk-Hai hordes. That’s because it’s Week 11 and LT Russell Okung (6’5” 310 Pounds) is finally eligible to return from IR to the field of play. According to Pro Football Focus, Okung was 3rd in Pass Blocking Efficiency last season. Not only that, but Breno Giacomini (6’7” 318 Pounds) looks like he’s set to return to his familiar spot at Right Tackle (who’d have ever thought we’d all be excited to get Breno back?). With C Max Unger (6’5” 305 Pounds) also slated to resume his duties after a week long hiatus due to a concussion, the Seahawks are scheduled to have their entire starting offensive line intact and playing together again for the first time since Week 1. Although those players’ return is undoubtedly the most significant news of the week … it’s certainly not the biggest story by far.
When the Vikings and Seahawks last squared off against one another a year ago, the Vikings had a dynamic receiver whom I called Thor (the Norse god of lightning and thunder). Well the Seahawks have certainly stolen the Vikings thunder, as WR Percy Harvin (5’11” 184 Pounds) is on track to make his season debut against his old teammates. And how ironic.
Coming in to that game, Harvin was being mentioned as a possible MVP candidate. With the numbers he was putting up, it’s easy to see why …
Through Week 9 of last season, Percy Harvin had been targeted 79 out of 262 passing attempts (30% of the time). Through 9 games he had …
60 catches … 667 yards receiving … 3 receiving touchdowns. The Vikings tended to get the ball to him on little bubble screens and quick dump-offs, letting Percy and his speed do the rest after that. Harvin was a dynamic receiver, as he had 8 catches that had gone for 20 yards or more (half of the team’s total up to that point).
They also used him in the running game some as well, as Harvin had 22 Carries for 96 Yards Rushing (4.4 Yards/Carry) and had a touchdown on the ground too.
Not only that, but Harvin was also returning kickoffs, was averaging 35.7 yards a return, and had taken one back all the way for a touchdown.
Harvin ended up injuring his right foot in that game against the Seahawks and missed the next 3 games after that. The Vikings finally placed him on IR on December 6th, ending his season. Several months later on March 11th, the Vikings traded Harvin to the Seahawks for a 1st Round and 7th Round Draft Choice in 2013 and a 3rd Round Choice in 2014. You pay that kind of a price for a player the caliber of a Percy Harvin because he’s going to change the dynamics of how opposing teams defend Seattle’s receiving corps. Now, 8 months, a hip labrum surgery, and long rehab later, Harvin is champing at the bit to face his old team. I wouldn’t expect him to play a ton in this game however. The Seahawks in truth don’t need him against this team. They need him against the Saints, the 49ers and in the playoffs, so in all honesty I’d look for him to be in there for maybe 12-15 plays (just to get him some game experience) and then focus on getting him ready to play the Saints on Monday Night, December 2nd.
The Vikings secondary has been a complete mess. In short, they have been for Minnesota what the Offensive Line has been for Seattle. Starting LCB Josh Robinson (5’10” 199 Pounds)has been a veritable train wreck this season. According to Pro Football Focus, Robinson has allowed more yards receiving than any other cornerback in the league. I know whose side I’d throw the ball to if I was Russell Wilson. On the other side of the field, RCB Chris Cook (6’2” 212 Pounds) is their best corner, but he injured his groin in Minnesota’s Week 3 loss to the Browns, then injured his hamstring and has been out the past 2 games with it. PFF notes that though he’s only been on the field for ½ of the team’s snaps, he’s given up a team-high 4 touchdowns. Due to Cook’s injury in the Green Bay game, Robinson has been forced to play RCB and has obviously been getting torched. In Nickel situations where the offense goes to 3 wides, Robinson usually plays the slot receiver while Xavier Rhodes (6’1” 210 Pounds), the team’s 1st Round Draft Choice out of Florida State, comes in and plays the outside receiver. Starting FS Harrison Smith (6’2” 214 Pounds) was placed on IR (with designation to return) with turf toe after he injured himself in the Carolina game (Week 6). Enter Andrew Sandejo (6’1” 200 Pounds) at Free Safety, who has struggled at the position, taking bad angles on tackles and having issues wrapping up. SS Jamarca Sanford (5’10” 200 Pounds) has also missed some time this year with a hip issue and his replacements Mistral Raymond (6’1” 202 Pounds) and Robert Blanton (6’1” 200 Pounds) and both have allowed big plays and had their share of missed tackles. Sanford and Cook were both full participants in practice Thursday and Friday and are listed as Probable. Regardless though, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are undoubtedly going to move the ball …
(Russell Wilson against Vikings in Seattle 11/4/12) …
16 Comp … 24 Att (66.6 Comp%) … 173 Yards Passing … 3 TD … 0 INT … QB Rating 127.3
Russell Wilson positively shredded this group last season. Going against a secondary that’s has as many problems as the Vikings have had this year … Wilson’s liable to blow those numbers out of the roof.
WDFOS (What Does Football Outsiders Say?) …
Football Outsiders Week 11 DVOA Rankings …
Seahawks … (2nd Overall)
… Offensive DVOA (10.8%) [8th]
… Defensive DVOA (-16.8%) [3rd]
Vikings … (24th Overall)
… Offensive DVOA (-5.5%) [21st]
… Defensive DVOA (8.4%) [25th]
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-10-dvoa-ratings
It says they are who we thought they were. I highly doubt the Hawks will let these guys off the hook though.
Bold Prediction …
Adrian Peterson is probably going to get his yards, but like Hannibal and the Cathaginians who terrorized Romans citizens for a time, hardly won the war. This is a Vikings team with problems up and down the roster. An upset by these guys at Century Link tomorrow would be like Mickey Mouse actually winning the next presidential election (come to think of it, that could happen). I’m going to say that after allowing 21 first half points to the Bucs the last time around, that the Hawks have learned their lesson to not take any opponents (no matter how much of a pushover they look to be) lightly. With the return of Okung and Giacomini, I’d look for big days from the defense … from Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch …and for Percy Harvin to probably make a “Wow” play somewhere along the line as well.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 42
Vikings 13
November 4, 2012 … those pointy headed raiders from the North made their way in their longships with a 5-3 record, hoping to plunder a victory at Century Link Field. What they got instead was a fiery Viking funeral, as Marshawn Lynch rumbled for 124 yards and Russell Wilson torched them with 3 Touchdown Passes. Will we see a repeat of that drubbing this Sunday? Could be. While the Seahawks put together their most complete performance of the season in fricasseeing the Falcons last Sunday … the Vikings are embroiled in the morass of a 2-7 season that has gone horribly awry. Can the Seahawks once again repel this barbarian horde and give them a one way ticket to Valhalla? Let’s take a closer look at this match-up …
Vikings Passing Offense …
| Vikings Off. Category | NFL Rank | Seahawks Off. Category | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 307 Pass Attempts | 7th Fewest | 265 Pass Attempts | 2nd Fewest |
| 24.4Pts Scored/Game | 13th Most | 26.5 Pts Scored/Game | 6th Most |
| 1,858 Passing Yds | 7th Fewest | 2,086 Passing Yds | 20th in NFL |
| 206.4 Pass Yds/Game | 8th Fewest | 208.6 Pass Yds/Game | 9th Fewest |
| 60.9% Pass Comp% | 16th in NFL | 64.2% Pass Comp% | 8th Best |
| 40.2% 3rd Down Conv Rate | 11th | 39.8% 3rd Down Conv Rate | 12th |
| 6.4 Yds/Pass Avg. | 5th Fewest | 8.5 Yds/Pass Avg. | tied 2nd Highest |
| 10.5 Yds/Reception Avg. | tied 2nd Lowest | 13.3 Yds/Reception Avg. | 3rd Highest |
| 27 Passes of 20 Yards+ | 18th Most | 36 Passes of 20 Yards+ | 7th Most |
| 4 Passes of 40 Yards+ | 6th Fewest | 6 Passes of 40 Yards+ | tied 10th Most |
| 8 Passing TD’s | tied 3rd Fewest | 18 Passing TD’s | tied 6th Most |
| Score TD’s 46.15% in Red Zone (AT HOME) | 7th Lowest | Score TD’s 54.55% in Red Zone (ON ROAD) | 16th in NFL |
| 10 Interceptions Thrown | Tied 10th Most | 6 Interceptions Thrown | Tied 2nd Fewest |
| 21 Sacks Allowed | tied 7th Fewest | 28 Sacks | tied 9th Most |
| 48 QB Hits Allowed | 17th Most | 59 QB Hits Allowed | 7th Most |
| 77.6 Passer Rating for Christian Ponder | 24th in NFL | 101.8 QB Passer Rating for Russell Wilson | 5th Best |
Many people out there associate the Vikings Offense with Adrian Peterson and naturally assume that the running game comprises the bulk of their offense. The numbers though tell a different story …
In truth, the Vikings employ primarily a short to intermediate passing attack, hitting backs in the flat, short crossing routes, WR screens, and so on.
That means, that how the Seahawks handle QB Christian Ponder (6’2” 229 Pounds) and the Viking passing attack will go a long ways towards determining the outcome of this game. Let’s take a look at Ponder’s numbers and what the Vikings have done under his leadership this season …
| Games Played | Comp. | Att. | Comp% | Yards | TD’s | INT’s | QB Rating | Total QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | [td]115 | 179 | 64.2% | 1,246 | 5 | 7 | 77.6 | 58.7 |
With Christian Ponder at the helm this year, the Viking Offense has scored …
24 Points against Detroit [Week 1]
30 Points against Chicago [Week 2]
27 Points against Cleveland [Week 3]
31 Points against Green Bay [Week 8]
23 Points against Dallas [Week 9]
34 Points against Washington [Week 10]
Who have his main weapons been? Let’s Ponder those for a few moments …
| Receiver | Size | Catches | Targets | Yards | Yards/Catch | TD’s | #Catches of 20 Yds+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Jerome Simpson | 6’2” 190 Lbs | 33 | 63 | 491 | 14.9 | 0 | 6 |
| WR Greg Jennings | 6’0” 195 Lbs | 34 | 59 | 410 | 12.1 | 2 | 7 |
| TE Kyle Rudolph | 6’6” 258 Lbs | 30 | 46 | 313 | 10.4 | 3 | 6 |
| RB Adrian Peterson | 6'1” 217 Lbs | 24 | 29 | 163 | 6.8 | 1 | 1 |
| WR Cordarrelle Patterson | 6’2” 220 Lbs | 18 | 28 | 168 | 9.3 | 1 | 2 |
| TE John Carlson | 6'5" 248 Lbs | 18 | 26 | 159 | 8.8 | 1 | 2 |
| WR Jarius Wright | 5'10" 180 Lbs | 13 | 23 | 150 | 11.5 | 0 | 3 |
| RB Toby Gerhart | 6'0" 231 Lbs | 10 | 13 | 72 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 |
The Vikings passing attack is a far cry from the one they saw last week. While the Vikings Offense does have 27 passing plays of 20 yards or more this season (18th Overall) … Minnesota comes in to this game averaging only 6.4 yards/pass (5th Lowest in the league). Last season, the Vikings Offense averaged 6.1 yards per pass attempt (2nd Lowest in the NFL), as much of that offense was predicated upon getting Percy Harvin the ball on bubble screens, little dump-offs, and short slants and allowing him to do the rest. I wouldn’t expect too many long bombs in this game, as Ponder simply doesn’t have the arm for it. Even a game manager can be dangerous though. Let’s take a look at some of his weapons …
WR’s Jerome Simpson (6’2” 190 Pounds) and Greg Jennings (6’0” 195 Lbs) have been the Vikings go to receivers this year and they have managed to make some plays downfield. Simpson has legitimate 4.4 speed, but he is more the straight line speed type and doesn’t really possess the Golden Tate kind of juke your socks off kind of elusiveness. Simpson made headlines this week for all the wrong reasons. He was arrested recently on suspicion of DUI and could be facing up to 3 years in prison if convicted. As far as this game is concerned however, coach Leslie Frazier indicated that he’ll play.
Greg Jennings (the former Packer), on the other hand, is a great route runner and fairly shifty, so is a guy that can hurt you if he’s not properly accounted for. With Brandon Browner going down with a groin injury, it’s certainly going to be interesting to see how CB Walter Thurmond (5’11” 190 Pounds) [who has better overall coverage skills] handles him this week. Of course, Jennings may not be 100% himself either, as he was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday with an Achilles injury.
TE Kyle Rudolph (6’6” 258 Lbs) is another guy that bears watching on Sunday, though his status is up in the air due to a foot injury. Rudolph missed last week’s game against the Redskins (foot issue) and didn’t practice at all this week. He’s officially listed as being out for this game, which is a big blow for the Vikings, as last season Rudolph led the team with 9 receiving TD’s. Because of the health issues surrounding Rudolph, Seattle fans will see a lot of his backup and a name they are fairly familiar with – former Seahawks TE John Carlson (6’5” 248 Pounds). Carlson was never known as a particularly strong blocker, so I’d look for the Legion of Boom to give him a warm welcome home and re-acquaint him with the turf.
Rookie WR Cordarrelle Patterson (6’2” 220 Lbs) is a guy who hasn’t garnered a whole lot of attention, but frankly is someone who has the talent to pull a Titus Young in this game if the Seahawks somehow overlook him. Two weeks ago against the Packers, Patterson took a kickoff back 109 yards for the touchdown. He ran a sizzling 4.33 second (40) at the Combine, so is definitely one to watch.
Christian Ponder suffered a separated shoulder in his non-throwing left arm against the Redskins last week. He has been a limited participant in practice all this week and is listed as Probable, but who knows exactly what the Seahawks will actually see from #7 this Sunday. Of course, there is one who will be garnering even more of the Seahawk Defense’s attention this Sunday …
Vikings 2013 Rushing Offense …
| Category | Vikings | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Points Scored/Game | 24.4 (13th Most) | 26.5 (6th Most) |
| Rushing Attempts | 210 (7th Fewest in NFL) | 330 (Most in NFL) |
| Rushing Yards | 983 (19th in NFL) | 1,534 (Most in NFL) |
| Rushing Yards/Game | 109.2 (17th in League) | 153.4 (Most in League) |
| Avg. Yards/Rush | 4.7 (5th Best in League) | 4.6 (6th Best in League) |
| Rushes of 20+ Yds | 5 (Tied 15th) | 9 (5th Most) |
| Rushing 1st Downs | 49 (Tied 21st in NFL) | 83 (Most in NFL) |
| 3rd Down Conv. Rate | 40.2% (11th) | 39.8% (12th) |
| Rushing TD’s | 14 (2nd Most in NFL) | 9 (Tied for 7th Most) |
| Rushing Fumbles | 5 (Tied 8th Most in NFL) | 5 (Tied 8th Most) |
Though nearly 60% of the Vikings Offense has come via the air, truly halting the Vikings Offense has to start with having all eyes on #28. When Seattle faced the Vikings back in Week 9 last year, RB Adrian Peterson (6’1” 217 pounds) was the league’s leading rusher (775 yards), averaging 4.7 yards/carry (5th Best in the league at that point.). Though he’s a bit behind in terms of rushing yardage (768 yards) and yards/carry (4.5) this year, he is still obviously quite dangerous and integral to what the Vikings do on offense. To give you a sense of just how integral, just consider these numbers …
Adrian Peterson’s Combined Numbers
768 Rushing Yards
163 Passing Yards
931 Total Yards … the Vikings as a team have 2,955 Total Yards
[Peterson has been responsible for 31.5% of all the Vikings yards gained.]
Peterson has 9 TD’s Running … and 1 TD Passing.
The Vikings as a team have 14 TD’s Rushing … 8 TD’s. Passing
[Adrian Peterson has accounted for 45.45% of all the Vikings Touchdowns this year.]
Peterson is one of the true elite running backs in the game … and perhaps one of the best backs that has ever played. As a power runner with size (6’1” 217 pounds), speed (he ran a 40 in 4.4 seconds at the combine), elusiveness, and power … he and Marshawn Lynch are cut from the same cloth. Like Lynch, he is among the very best in terms of continuing to gain yardage after contact, so the Seahawks Defense will have to be on their game in order to stop him. Though the Hawks ended up beating the Vikings in Seattle 30-20 last season, Adrian Peterson caused a lot of damage along the way …
Adrian Peterson’s Rushing Numbers vs. Seattle (11/4/2012) …
17 Attempts … 182 Yards Rushing … 10.7 Yards/Carry … 2 Touchdowns (including one that went for 72 yards).
Clearly, the Seahawks Defense is going to have to do a much better job this time around. Against this guy though, that’s easier said than done. Since 2007, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson have led the NFL in most games with 100 yards rushing. So, he can kind of go off on anyone, no matter how good they are.
Interestingly enough, the Vikings come in to this game with just 210 Rushing Attempts on the season (7th Fewest in NFL). That’s definitely surprising, seeing just how much of a weapon Adrian Peterson truly is. Part of that may be due to the fact that the Vikings have been playing from behind and trying to play catch-up, but whatever the case is I’d be pushing hard to give the ball to #28 more if I were a Vikings fan.
Though we can’t say so with absolute certainty where Peterson is going to go on any given play this Sunday, there has been a definite pattern of where he’s gone this season …
As you can see, Peterson has run to daylight off the right side of that Vikings Offensive Line often this season. So RG Brandon Fusco [6’4” 306 Pounds] and big RT Phil Loadholt [6’8” 343 Pounds] have been the ones to open up the holes for him. Though Peterson did score 2 TD’s this last Sunday, he managed only 75 yards (3.8 yards/carry) against the Redskins. I would say much of that would be attributed to the fact that Loadholt missed last week due to a concussion. DE Red Bryant (6’4” 323 Pounds) and Seattle’s, DT Jordan Hill (6’1” 303 Pounds), and DT Clinton McDonald (6’2” 297 Pounds) will certainly be key this Sunday because chances are, Peterson will be coming their way.
After giving up 134 yards (5.2 yds/rush) to Zac Stacy … and 158 yards (5.6 yards/rush) to Mike James in back to back weeks, the Seahawks Defense put the clamps down on the Falcons, limiting runners to just 64 yards of total offense on the ground. They’re going to have to be just as stingy and play gap control defense again this Sunday unless they want Peterson to give an encore performance. Peterson did not practice on Thursday due to a groin issue, but it’s highly likely that this was merely Leslie Frazier’s way of giving him the day off and that Peterson will be good to go come Sunday.
Let’s turn our attention to the other side of the ball and examine how good of a job the Vikings have been doing at STOPPING the run …
Vikings 2013 Rushing Defense …
| Category | Vikings | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Points Allowed/Game | 31.0 (3rd Most) | 15.9 (3rd Fewest) |
| Rushing Attempts Against | 257 (13th Most in NFL) | 264 (8th Most in NFL) |
| Rushing Yards Allwd | 1,023 (15th in NFL) | 1,100 (10th Most in NFL) |
| Rushing Yards/Game Allwd | 113.8 (18th in NFL) | 111.0 (15th in NFL) |
| Avg. Yards/Rush Allwd | 4.0 (Tied 13th in NFL) | 4.2 (Tied 18th in NFL) |
| Rushes of 20+ Yds Allwd | 9 (Tied 5th Most) | 3 (Tied 4th Least) |
| Rushing 1st Downs Allwd | 61 (Tied 8th Most) | 61 (Tied 8th Most) |
| Rushing TD’s Allwd | 9 (Tied 9th Most) | 4 (Tied for 6th Fewest) |
| Tackles for Loss | 35 | 26 |
| Rushing Fumbles Caused | 5 (Tied 6th Most) | 6 (5th Most) |
| Forced Fumbles | 10 (Tied 7th Most) | 14 (Tied 2nd Most) |
The 3 sets of stats that should absolutely jump off the page and smack you in the face are …
31.0 Points/Game Allowed (3rd Most in the Game)
9 Rushes of 20 yards or More Allowed (5th Most in the Game)
9 Rushing Touchdowns Allowed (9th Most in the Game)
Against a Seahawks team that comes in to this game #1 in the league in running the football (153.4 Rushing Yards/Game Avg.), those numbers are pretty finger licking good. Lynch enters Sunday’s contest 2nd in the NFL with 871 yards rushing … 6th overall in terms of average yards/rush (4.6) … and tied for 3rd in the league in rushing TD’s (7).
For all the problems that Vikings have had this year, they have a few players who are adept at stopping opposing runners in the backfield. The best among them this year has to be MIKE LB Erin Henderson (6’3” 236 Pounds), who leads the team in both Tackles (87) and Tackles for Loss (7). Henderson is a tough nosed player who is a good athlete and has great instincts. Defensive End Jared Allen (6’6” 270 Pounds)– who continues to be the lynchpin in this defense – comes in to this game having 4 Tackles for Loss and is a load for any offensive lineman to handle and remains one of the very best DE’s in the league. Others who are an asset stopping the run are DE Brian Robison (6’3” 259 Pounds) [3 Tackles for Loss] and DT Kevin Williams (6’5” 311 Pounds) [1 TFL], who though isn’t the player he once was, turned in a strong performance against the Redskins last week.
They have plenty of problems as well. NT Letroy Guion (6’4” 303 Pounds) has shown that he is a poor fit for the nose tackle position, as he just gets knocked back far too easily. Last year, Pro Football Focus had Guion ranked as the worst DT in all of football. There is a reason they drafted Sharrif Floyd (6’3” 305 Pounds), so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s going to get more playing time moving forward now that Guion has been ruled out of Sunday’s game with what they’re calling a chest injury. Heck, their defense against the run might actually improve. SAM LB Chad Greenway (6’2” 242 Pounds) has struggled against the run simply because he’s still recovering from knee surgery and hasn’t seen his quickness return yet. And while SS Jamarca Sanford (5’10” 200 Pounds) has been an asset against the run, the rest of the secondary have been far more matadors than anything else.
Now what’s interesting to note is that according to the numbers, teams have actually run the ball more against the Seahawks (264 Rushing Attempts) than they have against the Vikings (257 Rushing Attempts). However, in a league that’s become increasingly more pass oriented, it’s important to note when looking at their schedule that the Vikings have played only 3 teams this year who are in the top 10 in terms of rush attempts. Those teams are: Carolina (#5), Washington (#8), and Green Bay (#10). Here is how they have done stopping the run in those 3 games …
Carolina [35-10 LOSS in Week 6] …
39 Rushing Attempts … 131 Yards Rushing … 3.4 Yards/Carry … 2 TD’s Allowed
Deangelo Williams … 17 Carries … 64 Yards … 3.8 Yards/Carry
Green Bay [44-31 LOSS in Week 8] …
42 Rushing Attempts … 182 Yards Rushing … 4.2 Yards/Carry … 2 TD’s Allowed
Eddie Lacy … 29 Carries … 94 Yards … 3.2 Yards/Carry … 1 Rushing TD
James Starks … 7 Carries … 57 Yards … 8.1 Yards/Carry … 1 Rushing TD
Washington [34-27 WIN in Week 10] …
36 Rushing Attempts … 191 Yards Rushing … 5.3 Yards/Carry
Alfred Morris … 26 Carries … 139 Yards Rushing … 5.3 Yards/Carry
Adrian Peterson went off against the Hawks for 182 yards rushing in Seattle last year. But Marshawn Lynch made some noise of his own in that game as well …
(Marshawn Lynch against Vikings in Seattle 11/4/12) …
26 Carries … 124 Yards Rushing … 4.8 Yards/Carry … 1 Rushing TD
Given all of that, I find it very hard to believe that the Vikings are going to have any semblance of success containing the tidal wave that is the NFL’s #1 Rushing Offense in a hostile environment like Century Link Field. So, I’d fully expect the Lynch and the Seahawks to be able to exert their will and for the Vikings to yield more real estate than Windermere ...
Vikings 2013 Passing Defense …
| Category | Vikings | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Points Allowed/Game | 31.0 (3rd Most) | 15.9 (3rd Fewest) |
| Passing Attempts Against | 369 (4th Most) | 332 (14th in NFL) |
| Passing Yards Allwd | 2,571 (4th Most) | 1,780 (2nd Fewest) |
| Avg. Yds/Pass Allwd | 7.3 (14th in NFL) | 6.0 (Tied Fewest in NFL) |
| Avg. Yds/Reception Allwd | 11.0 (Tied 6th Best) | 10.2 (3rd Best in NFL) |
| Pass Comp% Allwd | 66.9% (3rd Highest) | 59.3% (13th Best) |
| Opp 3rd Down Conv% | 50.0% (Worst in NFL) | 38.1% (15th Best) |
| 1st Downs Allowed | 216 (3rd Most) | 193 (8th Most) |
| Passing TD’s Allwd | 21 (Tied Most in League) | 10 (tied for 5th Fewest) |
| QB Rating Allwd | 98.4 (7th Worst) | 70.4 (2nd Best) |
| Sacks | 21 (Tied 22nd in NFL) | 31 (tied for 5th Most) |
| Interceptions | 8 (tied for 19th) | 13 (Tied for Most) |
| Passes Defensed | 41 (Tied 8th Fewest) | 59 (Tied 10th Most) |
| Give Away/Take Away Margin | -4 (Tied 8th Worst | +7 (6th Best) |
Before we get in to the particulars, just let some of those numbers simmer for a moment. The Vikings as a unit …
Give up the 3rd Most Points per Game in the League (31.0 Pts/Game)
Have allowed the 4th Most Passing Yards in the League (2,571)
Are allowing teams to complete 66.9% of their passes against them (3rd Worst)
Are allowing teams to convert an incredible 50% of their 3rd Downs (Worst in NFL)
Have allowed the Most 1st Downs in the League (216)
Have given up (along with Buffalo) 21 Passing Touchdowns (Worst in the NFL)
Not only that, but you know how many of us have been a bit squeamish when Pete Carroll decides to go for it on 4th Down and 1? Well, let me give you some Pepto – teams have gone for it on 4th Down 10 times against the Minnesota Defense this season … they have made it 7 times (a 70% conversion rate).
Reach for the barf bag if you’re a Minnesota fan. A legitimate case could be made that the Minnesota Vikings have the worst pass defense in the NFL right now.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Vikings are without talent or that the Hawks should treat these guys like it’s going to be a ride at Disneyland or anything. We saw how that all went in the first half of the Tampa Bay game. Defensive End Jared Allen (6’6” 270 Pounds) leads the team with 5.0 Sacks and is always a monster, MIKE LB Erin Henderson (6’3” 236 Pounds) can certainly rush the passer (3.0 Sacks), DE’s Brian Robison (6’3” 259 Pounds) and Everson Griffen (6’3” 273 Pounds) have 3 sacks apiece this year and are guys who you always need to account for, and DT Kevin Williams (6’5” 311 Pounds), (2.5 Sacks) is still someone who despite being hampered by injury can still jump up and bite you.
Now if it’s going to be Paul McQuistan (6’6” 315 Pounds) at Left Tackle and James Carpenter (6’5” 321 Pounds) at LG getting most of the reps this weekend and having to face Allen, my blood pressure might be rising a little bit. Russell Wilson has been under pressure on 44% of all his drop-back passes, so the prospect of subjecting him against to the onslaught of one of the league’s best pass rushers makes me want to pop some Xanax. But, Christmas time has arrived early for the Hawks, as Santa has left lots of goodies under the tree for all you good little Seahawk boys and girls out there. Reinforcements have finally arrived, as Gandalf has come charging over the hill with the rescuing armies of Rohan to meet the Uruk-Hai hordes. That’s because it’s Week 11 and LT Russell Okung (6’5” 310 Pounds) is finally eligible to return from IR to the field of play. According to Pro Football Focus, Okung was 3rd in Pass Blocking Efficiency last season. Not only that, but Breno Giacomini (6’7” 318 Pounds) looks like he’s set to return to his familiar spot at Right Tackle (who’d have ever thought we’d all be excited to get Breno back?). With C Max Unger (6’5” 305 Pounds) also slated to resume his duties after a week long hiatus due to a concussion, the Seahawks are scheduled to have their entire starting offensive line intact and playing together again for the first time since Week 1. Although those players’ return is undoubtedly the most significant news of the week … it’s certainly not the biggest story by far.
When the Vikings and Seahawks last squared off against one another a year ago, the Vikings had a dynamic receiver whom I called Thor (the Norse god of lightning and thunder). Well the Seahawks have certainly stolen the Vikings thunder, as WR Percy Harvin (5’11” 184 Pounds) is on track to make his season debut against his old teammates. And how ironic.
Coming in to that game, Harvin was being mentioned as a possible MVP candidate. With the numbers he was putting up, it’s easy to see why …
Through Week 9 of last season, Percy Harvin had been targeted 79 out of 262 passing attempts (30% of the time). Through 9 games he had …
60 catches … 667 yards receiving … 3 receiving touchdowns. The Vikings tended to get the ball to him on little bubble screens and quick dump-offs, letting Percy and his speed do the rest after that. Harvin was a dynamic receiver, as he had 8 catches that had gone for 20 yards or more (half of the team’s total up to that point).
They also used him in the running game some as well, as Harvin had 22 Carries for 96 Yards Rushing (4.4 Yards/Carry) and had a touchdown on the ground too.
Not only that, but Harvin was also returning kickoffs, was averaging 35.7 yards a return, and had taken one back all the way for a touchdown.
Harvin ended up injuring his right foot in that game against the Seahawks and missed the next 3 games after that. The Vikings finally placed him on IR on December 6th, ending his season. Several months later on March 11th, the Vikings traded Harvin to the Seahawks for a 1st Round and 7th Round Draft Choice in 2013 and a 3rd Round Choice in 2014. You pay that kind of a price for a player the caliber of a Percy Harvin because he’s going to change the dynamics of how opposing teams defend Seattle’s receiving corps. Now, 8 months, a hip labrum surgery, and long rehab later, Harvin is champing at the bit to face his old team. I wouldn’t expect him to play a ton in this game however. The Seahawks in truth don’t need him against this team. They need him against the Saints, the 49ers and in the playoffs, so in all honesty I’d look for him to be in there for maybe 12-15 plays (just to get him some game experience) and then focus on getting him ready to play the Saints on Monday Night, December 2nd.
The Vikings secondary has been a complete mess. In short, they have been for Minnesota what the Offensive Line has been for Seattle. Starting LCB Josh Robinson (5’10” 199 Pounds)has been a veritable train wreck this season. According to Pro Football Focus, Robinson has allowed more yards receiving than any other cornerback in the league. I know whose side I’d throw the ball to if I was Russell Wilson. On the other side of the field, RCB Chris Cook (6’2” 212 Pounds) is their best corner, but he injured his groin in Minnesota’s Week 3 loss to the Browns, then injured his hamstring and has been out the past 2 games with it. PFF notes that though he’s only been on the field for ½ of the team’s snaps, he’s given up a team-high 4 touchdowns. Due to Cook’s injury in the Green Bay game, Robinson has been forced to play RCB and has obviously been getting torched. In Nickel situations where the offense goes to 3 wides, Robinson usually plays the slot receiver while Xavier Rhodes (6’1” 210 Pounds), the team’s 1st Round Draft Choice out of Florida State, comes in and plays the outside receiver. Starting FS Harrison Smith (6’2” 214 Pounds) was placed on IR (with designation to return) with turf toe after he injured himself in the Carolina game (Week 6). Enter Andrew Sandejo (6’1” 200 Pounds) at Free Safety, who has struggled at the position, taking bad angles on tackles and having issues wrapping up. SS Jamarca Sanford (5’10” 200 Pounds) has also missed some time this year with a hip issue and his replacements Mistral Raymond (6’1” 202 Pounds) and Robert Blanton (6’1” 200 Pounds) and both have allowed big plays and had their share of missed tackles. Sanford and Cook were both full participants in practice Thursday and Friday and are listed as Probable. Regardless though, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are undoubtedly going to move the ball …
(Russell Wilson against Vikings in Seattle 11/4/12) …
16 Comp … 24 Att (66.6 Comp%) … 173 Yards Passing … 3 TD … 0 INT … QB Rating 127.3
Russell Wilson positively shredded this group last season. Going against a secondary that’s has as many problems as the Vikings have had this year … Wilson’s liable to blow those numbers out of the roof.
WDFOS (What Does Football Outsiders Say?) …
Football Outsiders Week 11 DVOA Rankings …
Seahawks … (2nd Overall)
… Offensive DVOA (10.8%) [8th]
… Defensive DVOA (-16.8%) [3rd]
Vikings … (24th Overall)
… Offensive DVOA (-5.5%) [21st]
… Defensive DVOA (8.4%) [25th]
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-10-dvoa-ratings
It says they are who we thought they were. I highly doubt the Hawks will let these guys off the hook though.
Bold Prediction …
Adrian Peterson is probably going to get his yards, but like Hannibal and the Cathaginians who terrorized Romans citizens for a time, hardly won the war. This is a Vikings team with problems up and down the roster. An upset by these guys at Century Link tomorrow would be like Mickey Mouse actually winning the next presidential election (come to think of it, that could happen). I’m going to say that after allowing 21 first half points to the Bucs the last time around, that the Hawks have learned their lesson to not take any opponents (no matter how much of a pushover they look to be) lightly. With the return of Okung and Giacomini, I’d look for big days from the defense … from Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch …and for Percy Harvin to probably make a “Wow” play somewhere along the line as well.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 42
Vikings 13
