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 Post subject: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:35 am 
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Quite a difference here when you factor in the sacks. Wilson's passer rating last night was 117.6, but his QBR was 20.5. I'm shocked he was able to manage such a good passer rating despite all the constant pressure. To not throw a pick or fumble the ball was really impressive.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 4:37 am 
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I love Total QBR and I think it's right on the money most of the time. I think it's just a little better than passer rating for grading QBs. But the last two weeks, Wilson has been surrounded by defensive ends 0.05 seconds after the snap... which means he's getting sacked and his Total QBR is dropping. Sometimes it is the QB's fault, but not this time. Against the Rams and Cardinals on the road, you look at that pressure and give Wilson credit for making the plays he made considering the pressure on him.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 6:25 am 
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I think QBR sucks, not that Passer rating doesn't either. Stats offer no context, that's where PFF's a little better.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 6:27 am 
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QBR is horseshit, Wilson played as good as the line let him.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 6:40 am 
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I hate QBR, saw this on another forum...both have to be used with context and not just as a single stat alone though. Passer Rating if more efficient imo. QBR says Pryor and Kaep did a lot better than Brees...and Pryor's QBR is just laughably stupid especially considering he had one run that went 93 yards for a TD.

Quote:
Drew Brees

26/36 332 5 tds 0 ints 146 passer Rating, but ESPN has a 70 QBR
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331027018

Terrelle Pryor
10/19 88 yards 0 tds 2 ints 9 carries 105 yards 1 td
25 Passer Rating, but 96.2 QBR

:lol:
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331027013
Colin Kaepernick 10/16 164 yards 1 td 7 carries 54 yards 2 TDs
Passer rating of 117, but a QBR of 99.8
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331027030


This is pretty off base. QBR is a ESPN made up stat by Trent Dilfer and some other people and it's quite subjective. No one knows the formula they use so I mean, some times it feels like they just put a random high number when they see a QB do good and a low one when a QB does bad.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 6:50 am 
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QBR over emphasizes sacks and late game performance.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:48 am 
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I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:52 am 
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SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked way better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


And that has everything to do with joe staley, Mike Iupati, Alex Boone and Anthony Davis. That Niners line is the best line in the league IMO.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:59 am 
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QBR and QB Rating have their good and bad.

QBR is like a baseball stat that places more emphasis on "not striking out" as opposed to how many hits you get. Sure, the "not striking out" might give a good indication of your plate discipline, but does it really say how good of a hitter you are?

The more I see the numbers, the more I am actually starting to lean towards QB rating as a better indicator (most of the time). I feel like there are too many subjective metrics in QBR, disguised as "objective". For instance, 3rd down success; do we punish a QB for throwing a ball away in the face of pressure and no open WRs? How about in a tight game, hanging in the pocket to try to make a play only to get sacked?

I feel like QBR rewards QBs for taking the uber-conservative route over actually making plays. I am not trying to say that QBR is worthless, but I saw Kaepernick do little to nothing except "not screw up" and get a 99 QBR, while having a 90 QB rating. Should a QB really be given a perfect score when going 10-16 for 150 yards in a blowout win? Yes, that is efficient, but that's also like saying you won the spelling bee by spelling the word "dog" correctly.

Here's a pretty simple rule in judging QBs in my opinion, trust what your eyes see and brain tells you. Fantasy sports have ruined how we judge players nowadays because we rely on the box score and numbers, over watching a game and judging a performance based on the actual circumstances. A box score doesn't care if you are on the raod or are missing O-lineman.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:02 am 
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SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


The offense was alright last week, against the Titans,Colts and Jags. Not saying they were amazing and lighting the world on fire, but they weren't inept by any means and continued to move the ball. The struggles on the offensive line yesterday were immense, to the point where you couldn't even execute a pass play with out Wilson ending up on his back. I don't think Kaep has been particularly bad this season, but he does tend to lay an egg when he plays @Seattle/Seattle and didn't do to well against IND either. The rankings with Kaep,Wilson,Lynch,Gore, etc. is all subjective and if I were you, I wouldn't expect to win any debates at another team's forum, although I'm not saying you're wrong or right or whatever, just you know, temper your expectations. Every game this season except for maybe the Rams game, we've won because of Wilson (but obviously not only just cause of him), whether it was his legs or his arms, he always got us the clutch play to win.

There is definitely a lot of concern with this offense and it starts with the oline then the play calling.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:05 am 
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McGruff wrote:
SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked way better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


And that has everything to do with joe staley, Mike Iupati, Alex Boone and Anthony Davis. That Niners line is the best line in the league IMO.

True but they are also doing it without their top 2 WRs. Admittedly, the 49ers offense has struggled twice this season (against Hawks and Colts) but the 49ers seems way more comfortable at this point of the season


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:06 am 
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Kaepernick...Mr. 1 read and run.

McGruff wrote:
SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked way better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


And that has everything to do with joe staley, Mike Iupati, Alex Boone and Anthony Davis. That Niners line is the best line in the league IMO.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:07 am 
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Mtjhoyas wrote:
QBR and QB Rating have their good and bad.

QBR is like a baseball stat that places more emphasis on "not striking out" as opposed to how many hits you get. Sure, the "not striking out" might give a good indication of your plate discipline, but does it really say how good of a hitter you are?

The more I see the numbers, the more I am actually starting to lean towards QB rating as a better indicator (most of the time). I feel like there are too many subjective metrics in QBR, disguised as "objective". For instance, 3rd down success; do we punish a QB for throwing a ball away in the face of pressure and no open WRs? How about in a tight game, hanging in the pocket to try to make a play only to get sacked?

I feel like QBR rewards QBs for taking the uber-conservative route over actually making plays. I am not trying to say that QBR is worthless, but I saw Kaepernick do little to nothing except "not screw up" and get a 99 QBR, while having a 90 QB rating. Should a QB really be given a perfect score when going 10-16 for 150 yards in a blowout win? Yes, that is efficient, but that's also like saying you won the spelling bee by spelling the word "dog" correctly.

Here's a pretty simple rule in judging QBs in my opinion, trust what your eyes see and brain tells you. Fantasy sports have ruined how we judge players nowadays because we rely on the box score and numbers, over watching a game and judging a performance based on the actual circumstances. A box score doesn't care if you are on the raod or are missing O-lineman.


Brilliant post ..did

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:10 am 
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SoHo9erFan wrote:
McGruff wrote:
SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked way better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


And that has everything to do with joe staley, Mike Iupati, Alex Boone and Anthony Davis. That Niners line is the best line in the league IMO.

True but they are also doing it without their top 2 WRs. Admittedly, the 49ers offense has struggled twice this season (against Hawks and Colts) but the 49ers seems way more comfortable at this point of the season


Sure, but let's not pretend that those two receivers are world beaters.

And at the end of the day, both the Niners and Hawks offenses are designed to do two things really well . . . Run the ball and pass off the play action. Both those require blocking more than receiving. Right now the Niners are blocking and the Seahawks aren't and that is the difference.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:17 am 
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SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


You really think 57% passing 1584 YDS 9TD 5INT 294 yards rushing looks better than 61% passing, 1628YDS 13TD 4INT 339 yards rushing?

At RB, Gore has a whopping 17 more yards and 1 more TD rushing, while Lynch has 85 yards more receiving and a receiving TD.

In what universe does the 49ers duo look better than what Wilson and Lynch have put up this season?

That doesn't even take into account the unbalanced schedule where Seattle has 5 homes games in the 2nd half of the season. I understand liking your team, but your claim is just silly.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:20 am 
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And true to form, hawks struggle a little and 9'er clowns swoop in to talk shit. What's our record again? enjoy the view from 2nd place. You're going to be spending a lot of time there this year....

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:25 am 
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I'll take FO's QB ratings anyday over either of those other two stats. Wilson is 9th in DYAR and 10th in DVOA. Baldwin is 2nd in DVOA. Passes my eyeball test.

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:26 am 
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Brock was on with Cowherd a while ago. He said the staff told him that Wilson executed the game plan they drew up. Wildon was told to eat the ball and let the defense take this one becasue we knew we could not block those ends.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:35 am 
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Which to any rational fan, seems very logical. Good to hear that. I thought RW looked different and he usually does everything with a purpose.

brimsalabim wrote:
Brock was on with Cowherd a while ago. He said the staff told him that Wilson executed the game plan they drew up. Wildon was told to eat the ball and let the defense take this one becasue we knew we could not block those ends.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:49 am 
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SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


Please, Kaep and Gore- Assinine. I'm pretty sure Wilson and Lynch hasn't been totally stifled to only 3 and 7 points in back to back games like Kaep and Gore has in weeks 2-3.

Kaepernick is showing through this first half of the season that he was completely overrated last year. He's more of a running QB than a passer. He's averaging 198 yards a game with 8.0 a completion. If you subtract out the outlier that was the GB game. He's averaging a paltry - 167 yards passing, and a less impressive 7.3 yards per attempt.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:17 am 
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drrew wrote:
SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


You really think 57% passing 1584 YDS 9TD 5INT 294 yards rushing looks better than 61% passing, 1628YDS 13TD 4INT 339 yards rushing?

At RB, Gore has a whopping 17 more yards and 1 more TD rushing, while Lynch has 85 yards more receiving and a receiving TD.

In what universe does the 49ers duo look better than what Wilson and Lynch have put up this season?

That doesn't even take into account the unbalanced schedule where Seattle has 5 homes games in the 2nd half of the season. I understand liking your team, but your claim is just silly.

You conspicuously ignored Kap's TD runs. You thought to mention rushing yards but not TDs? I agree that rushing TDs can be deceiving when using that stat as a tool to measure performance, but all of Kap's TD runs were by design and he really demonstrated his athletic ability on those TDs. So really Kap has 12 TDs to 5 picks-- which is obviously still not as impressive as Wilson's 13 TD and 4 picks...

But these numbers also don't define a QB. Kap is playing perfectly within the 49ers system these past weeks and looked like the best QB in the league Week 1 against the Packers. Kap has done all of this without a viable receiving threat outside the hashes. I've watched every Seahawks game and 49ers game and it's pretty clear Kap is more of an NFL QB than Wilson. Maybe when Okung and Gio return RW might be able to show he can stand in the pocket and be a QB, but until then Wilson is running around making plays out of thin air (trust me, I recognize RW's skill in this regard and think he is a phenomenal player who is partially responsible for the Hawks' 7-1 record), while Kap has been practically perfect 4 games this season and has thrown the intermediate and deep ball throws better than most QBs in the league.

And Gore's season has been leaps and bounds better than his stats. The guy is the best pass blocker in the game at the RB position. Ask any respectable NFL analyst and they would say Goee is having the best all around season at the position.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:10 am 
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I'm sorry, but Kaepernick is the most mentally limited QB I've seen this year. His inability to get to his second read is rather astonishing and when the first read isn't there he a) looks to run or b) looks like a fish out of water when trying to maintain composure. The only time I've ever seen him "go through a progression" is on designed look-offs when they want to hit the seam route to the TE (basically to hold the safety).

And don't give me the "he audibles a lot" crap. Harbaugh has multiple play calls and that call changes depending on the (pre-snap) Safety look. This isn't some magical Kaepernick is pulling a Manning situation. I've had numerous conversations with Stanford players who have emphasized that Harbaugh makes life as easy as possible for his QBs by emphasizing the pre-snap game, which 99% falls on the coaching staff.

Kaepernick is uber talented, but he's an extremely limited QB, when it comes to the mental side and the subtle nuances. Sure, he can hit an open first read, can run, and has a cannon, but there is a reason that every football person (Dilfer, Young, etc) is quick to point out that "he needs to learn to play QB because the legs are not always going to be there."

I get it. You are a 49er fan and believe in your guy. I don't fault you for that. But don't bring this drivel about "clearly being a better QB," when the numbers don't add up and the "eye test" clearly doesn't match up.

Both RW and Kaepernick have bright futures if they learn to play from the pocket and improve the nuances of being a QB. The legs are not always going to be there to bail them out.

SoHo9erFan wrote:
drrew wrote:
SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


You really think 57% passing 1584 YDS 9TD 5INT 294 yards rushing looks better than 61% passing, 1628YDS 13TD 4INT 339 yards rushing?

At RB, Gore has a whopping 17 more yards and 1 more TD rushing, while Lynch has 85 yards more receiving and a receiving TD.

In what universe does the 49ers duo look better than what Wilson and Lynch have put up this season?

That doesn't even take into account the unbalanced schedule where Seattle has 5 homes games in the 2nd half of the season. I understand liking your team, but your claim is just silly.

You conspicuously ignored Kap's TD runs. You thought to mention rushing yards but not TDs? I agree that rushing TDs can be deceiving when using that stat as a tool to measure performance, but all of Kap's TD runs were by design and he really demonstrated his athletic ability on those TDs. So really Kap has 12 TDs to 5 picks-- which is obviously still not as impressive as Wilson's 13 TD and 4 picks...

But these numbers also don't define a QB. Kap is playing perfectly within the 49ers system these past weeks and looked like the best QB in the league Week 1 against the Packers. Kap has done all of this without a viable receiving threat outside the hashes. I've watched every Seahawks game and 49ers game and it's pretty clear Kap is more of an NFL QB than Wilson. Maybe when Okung and Gio return RW might be able to show he can stand in the pocket and be a QB, but until then Wilson is running around making plays out of thin air (trust me, I recognize RW's skill in this regard and think he is a phenomenal player who is partially responsible for the Hawks' 7-1 record), while Kap has been practically perfect 4 games this season and has thrown the intermediate and deep ball throws better than most QBs in the league.

And Gore's season has been leaps and bounds better than his stats. The guy is the best pass blocker in the game at the RB position. Ask any respectable NFL analyst and they would say Goee is having the best all around season at the position.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:16 am 
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SoHo9erFan wrote:
I agree Wilson's performance probably fell between his QBR and his passer rating. But I don't understand how people on here think Wilson is still performing at a high level. Notwithstanding the injuries to two bookend tackles, Wilson and the Hawks offense is still struggling. People on here need to reconsider this whole Wilson+Lynch=best combo in the league. Kap and Gore have looked better this season.
I would be concerned if I was a Seahawks fan


The bold is really false. See week 2.

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 Post subject: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:17 am 
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Kaepernick is seemingly limited to single reads or maybe 2. It maybe well that is all he has with the terrible receiving corps. Bolden was exposed by Seattle he can dominate small DBs but against bigger ones he is an old receiver. Davis is well Davis IMO the best at his position. Will he improve ? I don't see him as another Ponder or Freeman. I see him getting better. He is just at 1 yr of play remember

However I see RW as one of a kind that can win games by skill and his refuse to lose mentality


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:05 am 
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Passer rating differential is the difference between your team's passer rating and the passer rating you hold your opponent to. Since 1940, 36% of NFL champions were ranked #1 in passer rating differential. This year Seattle is ranked #1, and after holding St. Louis under 40, actually increased their lead.

I'm not sure St. Louis pass rush was better than Arizona's last week, but Wilson was more cautious. He got a lot of criticism for his fumbles last week. You can't have it all. If you play conservative to avoid fumbles, you can't focus all your attention on standing strong in the pocket and making plays down field. We have a pick your poison offensive line, and unfortunately we're the ones drinking the poison.


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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:45 am 
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A rare interesting tidbit from ESPN's terry Blount . . .

Quote:
Wilson threw two TD passes to Golden Tate, including a catch-and-run 80-yard score that was the difference in the game. It was the longest touchdown pass in Wilson’s career. He was 5-for-6 for two touchdowns when connecting with Tate. Wilson was 5-for-12 when throwing to anyone else

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 Post subject: Re: Wilson's QBR vs Passer rating
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:57 am 
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Most of this thread can be summed up with:


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