Week 8 Cheat Sheet

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Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:28 pm
  • And here’s to you, Michael Robinson
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    Let’s start with the biggest negative of this game; possibly the only real point to nit-pick – the fumbles. Russell Wilson fumbled three times and we lost two of those. Part of this we can attribute to the O-line which has been playing better since Unger returned, but is still not creating a comfortable pocket for the QB. Part of it is on Wilson. It’s a tough situation because he’s trying to hang in the pocket as long as possible to make a play without having to just take off and run the ball for a few yards. There are times however that he needs to do a better job of protecting the football. The first fumble when he’s hit by Shaughnessy, he’s already seen that he’s about to go down but still doesn’t protect the ball. I respect the fact that he was still hoping he could make a play but you’d hope for a little more awareness backed up on your side of the field like that. Take the sack, or try to throw the ball at the feet of a receiver and try again on third down, rather than giving up the ball which immediately turned into a touchdown.

    Discounting the fumbles, Wilson had a great game completing 62% of his passes for 235 yards, three touchdowns and a 122.1 QB Rating. So far in his career through nearly a season and a half, Wilson is above 62% completions and nearly a 100 passer rating. He also made some of the best throws I’ve seen in a while. His 31-yard TD strike to Rice on the opening drive of the game, while running backwards with a rusher in his face was a thing of beauty (but maybe after watching the Vikings-Giants last night and watching Josh Freeman send most of his 50+ passes 25 yards over his receivers heads, I’m just easily impressed). Getting the ball to Zach Miller while being tackled and parallel with the ground was pretty much one of the best football plays I’ve ever seen. There was another pass that he threw to Golden Tate in the end zone that was ultimately dropped, but it was into coverage, placed perfectly in Tate’s hands. As far as giving your receiver a chance, the ball couldn’t have been fit into the coverage any better. The defense made a play however to keep it from being a score, and it was a bit of a risk considering all the defenders near the ball, but it was a perfect pass in that situation. I think I recall the broadcast commentators say it was more like throwing into a porthole than a window.

    Our running game was deceptively good, producing “only” 135 yards (I say “only” because that is about 20 below our average) but what stood out to me was a 4.2 yards per carry average. Prior to the game, the Cardinals were the 8th ranked team vs. the rush. 4.2 yards per carry isn’t super impressive, not for us, but what was impressive was that we usually have a large YPC average from Wilson’s scrambles to bump it up. In this case Wilson only contributed a 3.6 yard average – it was solid running from Lynch and a few nice plays from Turbin that bumped it up.

    Defensively this game looked like I hoped it would. The poor Arizona run game was easily shut down, and Carson Palmer did what Carson Palmer does – make a few plays, and make a few mistakes. Mistakes against the LoB means at least a couple picks. At the start of the 4th quarter, the score was 31-13. Although he finished with 258 yards passing, going into the 4th, Palmer had thrown for a net of about 112 yards once you factor in the sack yardage up until that point. Another 106 yards and nine points came in garbage time when the game was already out of reach. The Cardinals finished the game with 30 yards rushing, and 234 total yards.


    Fun Fact of the week:

    For a team that most ‘experts’ and fans alike will agree is still waiting for the offense to ‘click’ and is missing some key players, Seattle is in the top 10 for yards per game, and top five in points per game. We average 8.3 yards per pass, good enough for 4th in the league. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are fourth in the NFL with 23 sacks. Seven of those came last week in Arizona, attributed to eight different players.


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    The Good:

    • Bengals over Lions
    • Redskins over Bears
    • Panthers over Rams

    Cutler heart just in time for the Bears to go down hill– Really? Again? Stick a fork in the Rams. Bradford was quietly having a good year with nearly 1,700 yards, 14 TD’s to only four picks, and a passer rating over 90. Now – replace him with Kellen Clemens.

    The Neutral:

    • Falcons over Bucs
    • Giants over Vikings

    As bad as it was I admittedly watched the entirety of the Monday night game. Mostly hoping that if “football gods” actually did exist, I would be there to witness them nuking the field from orbit. I’m not sure what to think about the Falcons. Will they adjust to their injury situation and play better football? Defensively they aren’t horrible. I still think our game with them will be tough.

    The Not-So-Good:

    • Cowboys over Eagles
    • 49ers over Titans
    • Packers over Browns

    Thanks a lot, losers. The Cowboys reacted like they just won the NFC championship game. Hint: Neither you or the Eagles will be anywhere near the NFC championship game.

    Overall this was a solid week of results. The not-so-good results were to be expected.

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    Note: this is not list of picks based on teams I believe will win, or necessarily want to win. Picks in Green are simply the teams for which a win helps the Seahawks a.) Make the playoffs and b.) attain a high playoff seed.

    The Walter Jones Division (important games):

    Bills @ Saints

    Buffalo is going nowhere but I wouldn’t mind if they side-swiped the Saints on the way to the gutter.

    49ers @ Jaguars (in London)

    Please? I’ve got a soul that I’ve never technically claimed is not for sale. Retail price: 1 (one) Jacksonville win over the Filthy-Whiners.

    Redskins @ Broncos

    Normally this wouldn’t be a Walter-Level Importance type game. But if on the off chance we need to win a tie-breaker with the 49ers that comes down to strength of schedule, we want the Redskins to suck.

    Packers @ Vikings

    A Vikings win here would be huge for us based on the strength of victory tiebreakers. Unfortunately I think there’s a better chance of my Jag’s soul-negotiation actually going through.

    The Ben Obomanu Division (games of moderate significance):

    Cowboys @ Lions

    I hate the Cowboys; plus, the Cowboys have a better conference record. Plus, I HATE the Cowboys.

    Atlanta @ Arizona

    Take your pick really. I’m only picking Atlanta because it’s a division game, and because the Falcons still need to play the saints again so it would be nice if they were still playing for something at that point.

    The Kelly Jennings Division (games that, like Jennings himself, don’t really matter.)

    Panthers @ Buccaneers

    Giants @ Eagles

    The inverse of WA @ Denver, we’d like the Giants to get some more wins to increase their strength.

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    Seahawks @ Rams

    Seahawks:

    Pass Offense: 25
    Rush Offense: 2
    Total Offense: 10
    Scoring: 5

    Pass Defense: 2
    Rush Defense: 6
    Total Defense: 2
    Scoring: 3


    Turnover Differential: +7


    Rams:

    Pass Offense: 18
    Rush Offense: 29
    Total Offense: 30
    Scoring: 18

    Pass Defense: 17
    Rush Defense: 30
    Total Defense: 22
    Scoring: 24

    Turnover Differential: +3


    Vegas Opening Spread:
    Seattle -10.5

    I’m not in the habit of predicting blowouts, especially on the road. But I think Seattle rolls over another NFC West opponent in prime time. Our guys have a lot of pride and swagger and you know they love showing it off on prime time. I think that there will be a lot of ‘hawk fans in St. Louis; meanwhile the loss of Bradford for the year has taken the wind out of the sails for many of the fans who realize that former hopes of sneaking into the playoffs as a wild card are pretty much over with without a QB who, as illustrated in the cheat sheet section, was playing well statistically speaking. On top of all that, unless the World Series is a complete sweep, the St. Louis Cardinals will be playing a championship baseball game seven blocks away. The Edward Jones Dome, which I refer to as “The Hospital” when we play there (it gives me the same sterile creeped-out vibe), is going to be about as un-electric as a MNF crowd could be. I expect the ‘Hawks fans to energize our team to a dominant performance.

    The stats don’t hurt either. The Rams are 30th in the league at stopping the run, allowing 126 yards per game and 4.2 yards per attempt. Their rushing offense is 29th, and coupled with a backup QB who hasn’t started a game since 2011, our defensive scheme pretty much becomes what it’s been the last couple games – stuff the run and force a sub-par QB to beat the league’s best secondary. Not gonna happen though. My prediction is that at least one member of the Legion of Boom will have multiple picks. My guess is that Earl Thomas will finish up week 8 as the INT leader in the NFL. I think the defensive effort might end up looking a lot like it did against the cardinals – a decent completion percentage for Clemens as we set up opportunities for turn-overs. Offensively, I’m tempted to lower my score prediction for the hawks a bit based on the fact that I think we are going to have so much success running the ball that the clock should be running down pretty quickly. But I also see us having too many opportunities to score. Seattle is a streaky team and I think last week getting Miller back and having an offensive line play a little bit better went a long way in helping us get things rolling. I could conceivably see us putting up at least 30 points in each of our next five games. I think Wilson will have something close to a 220 passing yard/ 1 TD day while Lynch does the rest of the work.


    The only way I see this game being close is if Jeff Fisher and the coaching staff can convince their players that the season is not lost. In order for that to take hold, Kellen Clemens needs to come out early and show he can score. If they can drive down the field early and put it in the end zone, this suddenly becomes a competitive game. If Seattle gets out to an early lead, however, look for this game to end up a lot like last week, minus the part where Carson Palmer gets to show off his complete mastery of garbage time (and hopefully with less Wilson fumbles). I just think the atmosphere is going to be in the ‘Hawks favor, especially with the awesome showing in Arizona last week – our guys will be that much more cranked up to have the fans in their corner. The rams inability to stop the run will open up the passing game, as well as create opportunities for Wilson to make his easy jogs past the first down marker and out of bounds.

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    Last edited by Hawknballs on Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:48 pm
  • Well Done. But this is far too well thought out and lucid to be posted on this board. Next time bring some knee jerk worry worting, hand wringing and baseless speculation to not stand out so much.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:51 pm
  • I would argue LOUDLY that we want Carolina to win and develop into a team on the edge of playoff contention as they have 3 games against the Saints/9ers remaining.
    Change It.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:52 pm
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:Well Done. But this is far too well thought out and lucid to be posted on this board. Next time bring some knee jerk worry worting, hand wringing and baseless speculation to not stand out so much.

    LMAO Sgt.

    Great write up/analysis Hamknballs. I don't see a backup QB in Clemens putting up 16 on our team's D this week though.


    P.S. Go Bills!! Go Jags!!
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:58 pm
  • I disagree with the above and
    Would say that this board has multiple gems to offer, this being one of the prime ones. Great job and thank you. That was a random thoughts post, preview and prediction rolled in one. Bravo!
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:08 pm
  • falcongoggles wrote:I disagree with the above and
    Would say that this board has multiple gems to offer, this being one of the prime ones. Great job and thank you. That was a random thoughts post, preview and prediction rolled in one. Bravo!


    Was it not obvious I was being sarcastic? Good lord some of you guys need to find a sense of humor.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:03 pm
  • bestfightstory wrote:I would argue LOUDLY that we want Carolina to win and develop into a team on the edge of playoff contention as they have 3 games against the Saints/9ers remaining.
    Change It.


    Good point and edited. Oh those Kelly Jennings division games....


    hawksfansinceday1 wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:Well Done. But this is far too well thought out and lucid to be posted on this board. Next time bring some knee jerk worry worting, hand wringing and baseless speculation to not stand out so much.

    LMAO Sgt.

    Great write up/analysis Hamknballs. I don't see a backup QB in Clemens putting up 16 on our team's D this week though.


    P.S. Go Bills!! Go Jags!!


    I can see the rams getting a couple garbage time scores. Plus, it's hard for me to predict that a team will get no touchdowns. Too easy for a fluky play here or there to happen, especially on the road.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:15 pm
  • This looks like excellent work. I must overcome my ADD and actually read it!
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:26 pm
  • The only thing I can add is: I don't think we can just root against NFC West foes all the time.
    I think we need them to do well enough to limit their draft position.
    Obliviously, we need some space between S.F. and us but, I feel comfortable with the lead on rams and cards.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:29 pm
  • If Wilson is responsible for a share of the fumbles, it's the lesser share. I've noticed that no matter how good opposing pressure is or how poor protection is, it can never prevent people from ascribing to the QB his "fair share" of the blame. I think this fallacy of moderation is because we can't come up with a precise number to assign blame. It's difficult to separate offensive line play and QB stats. In fact, offensive lineman are very important and their failures can absolutely negate even the best of QBs. Russell Wilson played an incredible game against the 7th rated (by DVOA) defense on the road. If he had also not fumbled, his game would have been super heroic. Super heroic is not a reasonable standard.

    Wilson says he has to take care of the ball better and that will be awesome and incredible if he can do it by himself while still making plays. Then he *will* be superheroic. But the only way to be very secure with the ball is to make more risky passes leading to more interceptions or take more sacks or throw the ball away more, none of which we can probably afford. It's easy to second guess particular fumbles: He should have just taken that sack there, why did he try to scramble? What about all the other plays where he made something out of nothing, like converting the 3rd down while he was being sacked? What's the clear principle he should be following that divides that play from the other?
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:31 pm
  • nepahawk wrote:The only thing I can add is: I don't think we can just root against NFC West foes all the time.
    I think we need them to do well enough to limit their draft position.
    Obliviously, we need some space between S.F. and us but, I feel comfortable with the lead on rams and cards.



    true but do you want the Falcons to be completely hopeless by the time they play the Saints?

    I would rather the Falcons put some wins together at this point. Especially if they can still be sniffing around a wild card by week 16 when the 49ers head to the Georgia dome.

    Other than that I obviously can't pick the Rams this week or the niners any week.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:35 pm
  • formido wrote:What's the clear principle he should be following that divides that play from the other?


    The first fumble, replay shows he looks at the guy about to hit him. Instead of protecting the football it looks like he is going to try to escape. Which is admirable, but also improbable.

    The factor here that makes this stand out as being on Wilson is that A.) he sees the guy coming and B.) he's inside his own 10 yard line. At this point he needs to protect the football first and foremost. Especially with a 14 point lead on the road. It's that simple.

    Wilson is as heroic as they come but he is human.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:39 pm
  • Hawknballs wrote:
    nepahawk wrote:The only thing I can add is: I don't think we can just root against NFC West foes all the time.
    I think we need them to do well enough to limit their draft position.
    Obliviously, we need some space between S.F. and us but, I feel comfortable with the lead on rams and cards.



    true but do you want the Falcons to be completely hopeless by the time they play the Saints?

    I would rather the Falcons put some wins together at this point. Especially if they can still be sniffing around a wild card by week 16 when the 49ers head to the Georgia dome.

    Other than that I obviously can't pick the Rams this week or the niners any week.


    I understand your picks this week.
    I was just making a general statement, we don't need our division strengthen too much through the draft.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:52 pm
  • There are enough what-ifs in football, I tend to not put too much stock in draft positioning. Being #4 to draft Aaron Curry didn't help us out a whole lot, for example.

    In fact take that 2009 draft and look at the top 10:


    Rnd. Pick # NFL team Player Pos. College Conf. Notes
    1 1 Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford QB Georgia SEC
    1 2 St. Louis Rams Jason Smith OT Baylor Big 12
    1 3 Kansas City Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE LSU SEC
    1 4 Seattle Seahawks Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest ACC
    1 5 New York Jets Mark Sanchez QB USC Pac-10 from Cleveland [R1 - 1]
    1 6 Cincinnati Bengals Andre Smith OT Alabama SEC
    1 7 Oakland Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland ACC
    1 8 Jacksonville Jaguars Eugene Monroe OT Virginia ACC
    1 9 Green Bay Packers B. J. Raji† DT Boston College ACC
    1 10 San Francisco 49ers Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech Big 12

    Sure Stafford is pretty good. The rest of those guys? eh. Some are decent players while others are not super.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:07 pm
  • Every year is different:

    2010

    Pick # NFL Team Player
    1 STL Bradford, Sam, QB, Oklahoma
    2 DET Suh, Ndamukong, DT, Nebraska
    3 TB McCoy, Gerald, DT, Oklahoma
    4 WAS Williams, Trent, OT, Oklahoma
    5 KC Berry, Eric, SS, Tennessee
    6 SEA Okung, Russell, OT, Oklahoma State
    7 CLE Haden, Joe, CB, Florida
    8 OAK McClain, Rolando, LB, Alabama
    9 BUF Spiller, C.J., RB, Clemson
    10 JAX Alualu, Tyson, DE, California
    11 SF Davis, Anthony, OT, Rutgers

    2011

    Pick # NFL Team NFL Draft Pick
    1 CAR Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
    2 DEN Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
    3 BUF Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
    4 CIN A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
    5 ARI Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
    6 ATL Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
    7 SF Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
    8 TEN Jake Locker, QB, Washington
    9 DAL Tyron Smith, OT, USC
    10 JAX Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
    11 HOU J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

    Draft is hit or miss but, why chance a hit.
    2010 & 2011 produced some nice players at the top of the board.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:17 pm
  • I agree the bills are going no where and with a backup qb I don't expect a win vs. the saints, especially at N.O but they've played pretty good so far. Lost by 2 opening day vs the pats and lost in overtime to Cincy. Would love to see an upset
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:14 pm
  • Great work. Thanks for the read.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:05 pm
  • Fantastic post - props!!!

    I actually think the Jags have a shot vs the 49er's... Jags have shown blips of being an NFL team, and this is an easy to game to look past, and to not play up-to-par already.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:12 pm
  • Great work, thank you very much :) My only argument would be that our running yards are skewed by Russell's running. People used to say how good the Jim Mora/Michael Vick Falcons were at running the ball but a lot of that was attributed to Vick. I'd prefer if Mr. Wilson were to run less and that would drop the rush yards per game average.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:23 pm
  • I'm rooting for Carolina the rest of this season as well. They play SF and the Saints twice. It would be nice if they could manage a win out of those three games (2 are on the road). Even if they catch fire and make the playoffs, Seattle owns the tiebreaker so losing HFA to them is highly unlikely, and we hold the matchup advantage in a potential playoff face off too.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:30 pm
  • Maybe the Jags will get fired up to win one for their coach.

    A guy can dream.

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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:37 pm
  • Redskins over Bears NOT GOOD. Skins victories only helps the Niners SOS tiebreaker against us. We want Packers and Skins to lose, Vikings and Giants to win. The Bears can go lose to someone else, we already hold the lead on them.
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:45 pm
  • SalishHawkFan wrote:Redskins over Bears NOT GOOD. Skins victories only helps the Niners SOS tiebreaker against us.



    Debateable. See where you're at, but Washington also plays the 49ers and a competitive Washington team with something to play for poses a greater threat to beat the 49ers and help make tiebreaking formulas irrelevant, on our behalf. :th2thumbs:
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:45 am
  • Keep these coming. This is one of my "Must-Read" posts every week.

    Thanks!

    As far as the Redskins over the Bears, I'm leaning towards that being a "bad". I really doubt the Skins beat the 49ers and the Bears aren't a threat to our HFA at this point I don't think. They were already looking beatable, and now Cutler is out for at least 4 weeks. I think I'd rather see the Bears win that division anyway, for some reason we have trouble with the Lions and I'd rather not face the Packers in the playoffs
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Re: Week 8 Cheat Sheet
Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:15 pm
  • Keep in mind with the strength of schedule business. . .youre all assuming we lose at SF in December. I think a healthy hawks team beats SF on any field.
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