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 Post subject: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:38 am 
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It's true. I calculated it out. Let me preface this by saying that this is not a downer post and that I am not being pessimistic, or anything like that. This could be an amazing divisional race to watch for NFL fans in general, not just those that reside in the NFC West.

If the 49ers win out, they finish 14-2. If the Seahawks win out except for dropping the @ 49ers game, we finish 14-2 as well. Both teams in this scenario will have lost to the Colts, and to each other. NFL tie-breaking procedures to determine division winner go by the following:

1) Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3) Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5) Strength of victory.

Let's break it down. The first criteria would obviously be the same; both teams 14-2. The second piece of criteria would also be the same, we'd both be 5-1 in the division with each losing to each other once, so that's a wash. The third piece of criteria would also be a wash. Every team plays 16 games, and this year, the Seahawks and 49ers share 11 common opponents. (Covering 14 games because 3 are division foe duplicates.)

Seahawks 2013 Schedule:
@ Panthers
vs 49ers
vs Jaguars
@ Texans
@ Colts
vs Titans
@ Cardinals
@ Rams
vs Buccaneers
@ Falcons
vs Vikings
vs Saints
@ 49ers
@ Giants
vs Cardinals
vs Rams

49ers 2013 Schedule:
vs Packers
@ Seahawks
vs Colts
@ Rams
vs Texans
vs Cardinals
@ Titans
@ Jaguars
vs Panthers
@ Saints
@ Redskins
vs Rams
vs Seahawks
@ Buccaneers
vs Falcons
@ Cardinals

We play all the same opponents except for two, the Seahawks play the Vikings and Giants, and the 49ers play the Packers and Redskins. So, since in this scenario both teams would beat the two different opponents, we would be left with identical numbers of wins against common opponents. Another wash.

On to the 4th tie-breaking criteria. Best record against teams in the conference; the NFC in our case. Since each team would have one AFC loss (to the same team, no less; the Colts) and one NFC loss, (to each other) then this is also a wash, because both teams would have 11 wins, 1 loss in the NFC, and 3 wins, 1 loss in the AFC. Both teams would finish with 11 NFC wins.

The 5th piece of criteria is what would determine the tie-breaker if the 49ers won out the rest of the year. Right now per ESPN, the Seahawks have a strength of victory of 0.390, and the 49ers have a strength of victory of 0.441. They beat us in this category; that is, the opponents they've beaten have more wins than the opponents we have beaten, which is how strength of victory is decided. If we look at the remaining opponents of both the Seahawks and the 49ers, the 49ers face fewer losing teams if current trends continue than the Seahawks do, which means they would almost certainly finish the year with a better strength of victory number.

That would make them the NFC West winners, and the Seahawks would be a 14-2 wild card.

Even though the 49ers are a game behind us, if they win out, they win the NFC West. Incredible. Now, this is not likely to happen, but the 49ers are on a streak and it's definitely possible that we may lose to them when we go there. If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed to win the division at 15-1; but if we win all of the rest of our games except @ San Francisco, and the 49ers win out, period...We lose the division unless there are drastic changes in the right way for us with some of our future opponents.

I didn't create this thread to start a panic, and I'm certainly not panicking myself, or whining; but if anyone was under the impression that we "should still be alright" if we drop another game somewhere, it's time to think again. The best wild card the NFL has ever seen was when the 1999 Titans finished 2nd place in what was then the AFC Central division with a 13-3 record. There has never been a 14-2 wild card team. It's possible that the NFC West may produce a 14-2 wild card this year. That would be absolutely crazy.

If the 49ers and Seahawks both keep winning until we face each other in San Francisco in week 14, that game will have huge divisional implications of historic proportions. The NFC West may have been won by a team with 11 wins last year, but at this point, it's hard to see the winner of it this year not having 14 wins, possibly more.

Go Hawks!

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:43 am 
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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:45 am 
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There's a lot of crazy scenarios this time of year. How about a team from the NFC East winning the division at 6-10 and getting to host a 14-2 wild card team?


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:45 am 
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it'd be ironic that the team that won the NFC West a couple years ago as the first team to win a division at 7-9 could also potentially be the first team to ever win a wildcard with a 14-2 record.

You could call us book ends of the NFL postseason at that point.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:45 am 
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Win or lose SF still has to play the following week coming off the Seattle effect. Let's see right now teams 0-7 the following week after playing the Hawks.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:51 am 
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if that happens the only fair way to settle it would be to play it on a neutral field. so that there is no noise to disrupt the 49ers, that would be unfair.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:54 am 
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Not going to happen. The Niners will drop a game or two along the way.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:56 am 
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grizbob wrote:
My sanity requires that we sweep the ninners :180670:


This

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:57 am 
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Thanks for the breakdown. I have pondered this scenario as well.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:07 pm 
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There is a logical flaw in all that information.

It is a known fact that we will beat the 49ers when we play them. So the best the 9ers can get to is 13-3 which means that we can lose 2 more games and have the tie-breaker by having beaten them twice.

All the rest goes to the wayside


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:08 pm 
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The strength of opponents change on a weekly basis. It's really not meaningful until the end of the season where the entire 16 game schedule is used to base the strength of each opponent. A lot of teams have streaks where they have 2-3 "easy" or "hard" games in a row.

I think the real message here is - Win in SF and win the Division.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:08 pm 
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I have gone through this scenario already an you know what? I don't care. First of all I don't see us losing to the niners because we match up so well with them. Crushed them the last 2 times we played them, yes I know they were at home but even at San Fran last year when we were still hand cuffing Wilson we should've beat them and would've if we didn't drop so many big first down passes.
Now Of course I want home field advantage, but if we don't get it, we go on the road and kick ass. Defense and running game gets us through jan. and nobody does that better then us. I'm tired of hearing we can't win on the road


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:09 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
Even though the 49ers are a game behind us, if they win out, they win the NFC West. Incredible. Now, this is not likely to happen, but the 49ers are on a streak and it's definitely possible that we may lose to them when we go there. If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed to win the division at 15-1; but if we win all of the rest of our games except @ San Francisco, and the 49ers win out, period...We lose the division unless there are drastic changes in the right way for us with some of our future opponents.


Another way to phrase this is "If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed HFA throughout the playoffs." :mrgreen:

And in a nice change of pace, the Niners get to soften the Saints up for us, as they play them a couple of weeks earlier than we do (on the road, no less).

I'll go ahead and say it right now. I don't think our division will come down to tiebreakers. I think the thought of both of our teams winning out until our matchup in SF tends to overlook history and underestimate other NFL franchises. That road game against the Falcons could still be dangerous, and while I love that we get the Saints at home, I'm a touch worried about it happening after a bye. And on the 49ers side, they've got to travel to face New Orleans, and they're getting a Panthers squad that is starting to hit its stride.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:12 pm 
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9ers also play @Wash. who may be getting things rolling.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:14 pm 
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Definitely rooting for the Saints in that game vs. SF. While I don't think we lose in SF, I'll be able to stomach the #2 seed much more than the #5.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:15 pm 
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chrispy wrote:
The strength of opponents change on a weekly basis. It's really not meaningful until the end of the season where the entire 16 game schedule is used to base the strength of each opponent. A lot of teams have streaks where they have 2-3 "easy" or "hard" games in a row.

This is true, but the 49ers already have the SoV advantage, and since they only play two different opponents than we do the rest of the year, the Packers & Redskins compared to our Vikings and Giants, which group of two do you think will have a LOT more wins at the end of the year than the other? It's pretty likely that the 49ers would win SoV over us if they went 14-2. Not guaranteed, but pretty likely.

volsunghawk wrote:
Another way to phrase this is "If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed HFA throughout the playoffs." :mrgreen:

Very true. :)

volsunghawk wrote:
I'll go ahead and say it right now. I don't think our division will come down to tiebreakers.

Oh, I don't think it will, either. I'm just saying, there is a realistic chance that the scenario I described could happen. Not a one-in-a-thousand kind of thing, but as in, it really could happen.

volsunghawk wrote:
I think the thought of both of our teams winning out until our matchup in SF tends to overlook history and underestimate other NFL franchises.

I also agree.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:15 pm 
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I think 1 and 0 every week should make us not worry about anything else we cannot control. I think there are so many scenarios which will play out as we get there, but I think seahawks is peaking again, I just hope we continue to do so and win every game from hear on out.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:15 pm 
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Largent80 wrote:
9ers also play @Wash. who may be getting things rolling.


Thank goodness we don't have to play on that sorry excuse for a field this year!


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:16 pm 
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cacksman wrote:
Largent80 wrote:
9ers also play @Wash. who may be getting things rolling.


Thank goodness we don't have to play on that sorry excuse for a field this year!

No kidding. Let's call Vegas and see what the over/under would be on a 49er tearing an ACL or MCL in that game.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:17 pm 
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Very interesting post. It is not unrealistic at all that both teams could wind up 14-2. That would be pretty unbelievable to be a 14-2 wild card, for either team. Hopefully the Hawks can double up and beat up on the 49ers down in SF somehow


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:22 pm 
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We have the Niners number. We are not losing to them again this year, and probably for the next few years. That is how I see it.

And yes we will win the division and have home field advantage for the playoffs. Book it.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:48 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
cacksman wrote:
Largent80 wrote:
9ers also play @Wash. who may be getting things rolling.


Thank goodness we don't have to play on that sorry excuse for a field this year!

No kidding. Let's call Vegas and see what the over/under would be on a 49er tearing an ACL or MCL in that game.


It was redone for this year. Did I miss information about how poorly it was done?


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:53 pm 
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mikeak wrote:
It was redone for this year. Did I miss information about how poorly it was done?


It's redone every year. That field sees a lot of non-NFL action throughout the season (marching bands, local schools using it for this and that, etc.) and it's poorly maintained on an ongoing basis. Whether they are taking better care of it going forward starting this year is what the real question is.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:55 pm 
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The reason that the Strength of Victory is leaning toward SF is they have yet to play the Jags. After this weekend, that will change.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:57 pm 
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Hasselbeck wrote:
Not going to happen. The Niners will drop a game or two along the way.


I agree, I see them dropping one of the road games to Washington or New Orleans.

While I admire a well thought out analysis such as this thread, long rang predictions rarely come to fruition in the NFL. Way too many things can happen over the course of a schedule.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:59 pm 
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hawkfan68 wrote:
The reason that the Strength of Victory is leaning toward SF is they have yet to play the Jags. After this weekend, that will change.


Again, iRo's point about the only two differing opponents left on either schedule applies.

Any change in their SoV from the Jags would have the same effect on ours.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 1:00 pm 
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seahawks08 wrote:
I think 1 and 0 every week should make us not worry about anything else we cannot control. I think there are so many scenarios which will play out as we get there, but I think seahawks is peaking again, I just hope we continue to do so and win every game from hear on out.


We are fans... we cannot control any of it..... how about just putting down the hard hat and having a little fun?

We all get it, anything can happen during a season. We also understand talking about things Seahawk related is entertaining. Put those two together and you can openly talk without having to rely on "Post Game Cliques" .

Go Hawks!


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 1:08 pm 
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Whiners do not match up well with the Hawks. Like several folks here have said, Seattle will beat them in the Dump....er Stick.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 1:10 pm 
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Historically speaking, it's probably more likely that both teams lose a game or two that nobody is talking about right now but both teams are THAT talented. Could happen.

This year, I think we see between 4 and 6 teams with 13+ wins (SEA, SF, DEN, KC, GB, Indy). I lean toward 4 because two teams in the NFC North - which I think is the toughest division this year - play one another quite a bit (and they play a talented Lions team).

Other possible scenarios include splitting SF and NO (in either way). If NO manages to win just ONE of the games against SF or SEA and wins out, do they win #1 seed? We'd have the tie breaker over SF if they were the team we beat, but if not, we wind up being a wildcard as iRo just described.

I know there are a lot of "what if" scenarios but looking at SF and SEA schedules, it's entirely plausible.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:22 pm 
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That also makes it super tough this year for other teams not winning their division. 11-5 might not get you a wildcard spot.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:31 pm 
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So we root for the Giants to be the Redskins and the Vikings to beat the Packers. We pretty much root for the Vikings and Giants the rest of the way and root for the teams playing against the Packers and Redskins.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:37 pm 
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cacksman wrote:
Definitely rooting for the Saints in that game vs. SF. While I don't think we lose in SF, I'll be able to stomach the #2 seed much more than the #5.

I'm feeling you on that one. Hey, was that you at Bill's Off Broadway last sat rooting for the Cougs and crowding me with all your flaccid Coug chubb? That sure sucked when the rec fell down in the end zone and let the other guy get the pick. I was actually rooting for the Cougs for a second there.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:53 pm 
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Niners are dead last in NFL in passing game based on average yards per game. Wait till they fall behind late in a game and need to depend on passing the ball to win a game late. That's when they lose a game or two.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/bytea ... up=Offense


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:44 pm 
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I get this, it's a math problem.

Problem being that, because of your comments, there are those here who will equate you with the dude in 5 Monkeys who got on the plane at the end.

Be careful Bro, be careful. The Zombies are here, and they're awakening.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:21 pm 
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San Francisco is likely to lose to New Orleans because it's in The Dome and it looks like RG3 is finally healthy so that game will be another very losable game beyond our tilt. So not likely they win out, more likely they go 12-4. Which is the worst we will go at this point.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:57 pm 
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KCHawkGirl wrote:
San Francisco is likely to lose to New Orleans because it's in The Dome and it looks like RG3 is finally healthy so that game will be another very losable game beyond our tilt. So not likely they win out, more likely they go 12-4. Which is the worst we will go at this point.

We could still end up as a wild card if the Whiners and Hawks end up with the same record and the Whiners beat us @SF. Whether it's 14-2 or 12-4...it could happen.

Need to take care of business!

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:04 pm 
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KCHawkGirl wrote:
San Francisco is likely to lose to New Orleans because it's in The Dome and it looks like RG3 is finally healthy so that game will be another very losable game beyond our tilt. So not likely they win out, more likely they go 12-4. Which is the worst we will go at this point.


2012 Bears started 7-1 and finished 10-6.

Sure would be nice if the 2013 49ers would duplicate the back end of their season.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:08 pm 
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Surely this would not happen, right?
Please tell me this will not happen.
I'm in decent shape, but this might kill me.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:11 pm 
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Hell, I think we can win three straight on the road anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:12 pm 
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Look at the bright side, that would mean we'd get an extra game of Seahawks football this season.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:15 pm 
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But seriously, the way the Vikes and Giants look, we'd better win both those games.

I still think Seattle and San Fran are 1-2 in the league, so a really good team is going to get hosed this year.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:18 pm 
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JSeahawks wrote:
Look at the bright side, that would mean we'd get an extra game of Seahawks football this season.


My SeaHawk blinders prevent me from seeing a bright side of finishing behind the 9ers in the div. I will die.
Stress kills ya know.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:32 pm 
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Roland, you forgot to factyor in the week after syndrome.

The week after we visit the niners, they are guaranteed to lose whoever it is they play . . . therefore, even if we drop the ninner game, ninners end up with one more loss.

Problem solved


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:44 pm 
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That would suck to have to play on the road wildcard weekend with a record of 14-2.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:59 pm 
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Smelly McUgly wrote:
But seriously, the way the Vikes and Giants look, we'd better win both those games.

I still think Seattle and San Fran are 1-2 in the league, so a really good team is going to get hosed this year.


That was a horrible game. If Eli wasn't over throwing open receivers, they were dropping the ball when he did throw accurately. And I can sure see why Tampa Bay decided to part ways with Freeman. That guy couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. He's going to get eaten alive in our house.

A really good team got hosed last season, too.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:50 am 
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hawkfan68 wrote:
The reason that the Strength of Victory is leaning toward SF is they have yet to play the Jags. After this weekend, that will change.


Our SoV will be the exact same over 14 games, with the other 2 games coming against Green Bay and Washington for SF, and New York & Carolina for us.

I think we can expect Green Bay will probably end up with more wins than our two opponents combined thanks to the ineptitude of the Giants.


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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:04 am 
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By the time we return to candlestick we will have some extra weapons. I'm expecting some real class from niners fans upon our entry into the stadium

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:04 am 
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The calculation above of equal record while interesting is powerful early to be made. Still lots of football to be played and Frank Gore has yet to suffer his annual ankle injury which if timed well enough should be troubling for the Digits. Too many variables still to consider this calculation more than a well thought out troubling concern what if situation.

I think I will pay more attention to the playoff positions after we seen 1/2 the season played or at least until the next home series is done. Then it wIll be more interesting to assess if the team is a wildcard or bye team heading into the playoffs. I still am totally of the belief this team could easily be the #1 seed and the playoffs will be going through Seattle this year. We need to keep the faith.

Time will tell but the next two divisional games for us are key for the year, especially the SF game.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:29 am 
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Tech Worlds wrote:
That would suck to have to play on the road wildcard weekend with a record of 14-2.

Truth.

I do get a vibe that us and the Niners have to play 3 times this year. Destiny. Which is fine, I like the way we match up with them, and there is zero chance a road game at the stick will be an early game.

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 Post subject: Re: The Seahawks could be a 14-2 wild card.
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:00 am 
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if we somehow go 14-2 we will have the number one seed and HFA throughout the playoffs. you can take that to the bank.

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