Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina

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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:17 pm
  • KCHawkGirl wrote:
    I think the 10am thing is dead and gone with us, and I think this year will demonstrate that. It was basically irrelevant last year, and we're a better team in 2013.
    I certainly agree with this.


    Not sure why you would think the 10am thing is dead and gone considering the very last game this team played was at 10am and they started it like crap
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:25 pm
  • I have a feeling #3 wont let silly things like 10 AM or road history be an issue any more. Here we all are debating as if we've ever had a top 5 QB before. It's different. So different we don't know how to react.

    I don't blame any of you for holding on to doubt, we're a victimized, beaten down fanbase. But, not anymore.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:35 pm
  • kearly wrote:I'd probably put the odds at -1 Carolina. Seattle is statistically (DVOA) close to a dead average team on the road, plays worse than that at 10 am, and Carolina is riding a 4 game winning streak from the end of last season. Their weighted DVOA defense ranked 12th last season after finishing dead last year prior. They finished the year on a bit of a roll on defense and that was before they drafted two promising DTs in the draft to shore up their defense's biggest weakness. If you've watched Luke Kuechly play, particularly this preseason, you know how much of a monster he's becoming.

    By contrast, Seattle is hobbled and stumbling a bit. They will be starting their 4th and 5th string pass rushers on the ends. We probably have the best #4 and #5 options in the league, but still, these guys were considered roster fringe less than a month ago. Russell Wilson has shown different varieties of rust in each preseason game so far.

    Carolina's run defense ranked 11th last season and that was without Star Lotulelei and Jon Beason, who are both outstanding run defenders. I hope Pete has the brains to be more pass oriented in this game- Carolina's pass defense is merely average but their run defense could be a problem. Very similar to the situation in Miami last year.

    Our saving grace is that Cam Newton struggled last season and hasn't gotten better this preseason. Carolina's running game (sans Newton) was a joke even before they lost Stewart. Barring injury our run defense looks special. Shutting out Carolina's offense is a real possibility, although it's worth noting that Seattle actually lost a game last season against a team that didn't score an offensive touchdown, and they nearly lost two more against teams that scored 14 points or less. Also, our defense had most of their worst performances in 10 starts am last season.

    Sure, those were early season games before Wilson clicked, but Wilson hasn't looked like he's in mid-season form this preseason and is making uncharacteristic mistakes. Teams have figured out how to make Wilson uncomfortable with interior pressure, delayed blitzing and gap-controlling D-lineman. It's up to Wilson and Bevell to prove they can adjust. I think they will eventually, but immediately? That would surprise me.

    I do think our offense is going to be amazing this year, but it could hit a bump at Carolina since Wilson is struggling and even the best run games tend to hit a wall against very good run defenses. And if the penalties show up like they did in the preseason, I would almost expect an ugly loss.

    IMO, this is the toughest game of the season. 10am, summer heat, under-rated team that matches up well against us, SF the week after, week 1 which is upset central, Wilson not looking quite like himself, and then key injuries.

    If we lose, I won't be surprised and I won't take it any harder than if we lost at Atlanta or SF. This is going to be a TOUGH game to win unless Seattle plays mistake free, which they haven't been, lately. I'd give Seattle probably a 45% chance to win. It's a huge game, especially if Carolina becomes a WC contender later this season, but if we do lose I'd count it as a losable game that we didn't win.

    I am totally with Kearly on this. I stated my opinion very early in the thread and got called an idiot for it. I am not wearing rose-colored glasses here. Kearly pretty much summed up everything I wanted to point out. I WANT us to win badly but if we lose, I won't be shocked at all. The first team(including Wilson) has not impressed me at all. Add the injuries...Well. I think I will just pray for a miracle.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 4:25 pm
  • Seahwkgal wrote:We shouldn't be. Carolina is a much better team now than the one we faced last season. We have key players that will/might not play. The oddsmakers are dumb here. JMO.


    Aren't the Seahawks better too? Russell was still under wraps in last year's game.

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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 4:32 pm
  • kf3339 wrote:
    JSeahawks wrote:I think Seahawks win by 10+.

    :13:


    i'm on this wagon. :thirishdrinkers:
    I don't know why I bother... no one cares what I think.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 4:34 pm
  • Missing_Clink wrote:
    KCHawkGirl wrote:
    I think the 10am thing is dead and gone with us, and I think this year will demonstrate that. It was basically irrelevant last year, and we're a better team in 2013.
    I certainly agree with this.


    Not sure why you would think the 10am thing is dead and gone considering the very last game this team played was at 10am and they started it like crap

    well, for one, that game was not against Carolina. :stirthepot:
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:03 am
  • Who are you guys going to be missing in this game?

    Panthers will be without Jonathan Stewart and RG Amini Silatolu.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:14 am
  • Joat wrote:Who are you guys going to be missing in this game?

    Panthers will be without Jonathan Stewart and RG Amini Silatolu.



    All of our known passrushers. And Percy Harvin.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:18 am
  • kearly wrote:I'd probably put the odds at -1 Carolina. Seattle is statistically (DVOA) close to a dead average team on the road, plays worse than that at 10 am, and Carolina is riding a 4 game winning streak from the end of last season. Their weighted DVOA defense ranked 12th last season after finishing dead last year prior. They finished the year on a bit of a roll on defense and that was before they drafted two promising DTs in the draft to shore up their defense's biggest weakness. If you've watched Luke Kuechly play, particularly this preseason, you know how much of a monster he's becoming.

    By contrast, Seattle is hobbled and stumbling a bit. They will be starting their 4th and 5th string pass rushers on the ends. We probably have the best #4 and #5 options in the league, but still, these guys were considered roster fringe less than a month ago. Russell Wilson has shown different varieties of rust in each preseason game so far.

    Carolina's run defense ranked 11th last season and that was without Star Lotulelei and Jon Beason, who are both outstanding run defenders. I hope Pete has the brains to be more pass oriented in this game- Carolina's pass defense is merely average but their run defense could be a problem. Very similar to the situation in Miami last year.

    Our saving grace is that Cam Newton struggled last season and hasn't gotten better this preseason. Carolina's running game (sans Newton) was a joke even before they lost Stewart. Barring injury our run defense looks special. Shutting out Carolina's offense is a real possibility, although it's worth noting that Seattle actually lost a game last season against a team that didn't score an offensive touchdown, and they nearly lost two more against teams that scored 14 points or less. Also, our defense had most of their worst performances in 10 starts am last season.

    Sure, those were early season games before Wilson clicked, but Wilson hasn't looked like he's in mid-season form this preseason and is making uncharacteristic mistakes. Teams have figured out how to make Wilson uncomfortable with interior pressure, delayed blitzing and gap-controlling D-lineman. It's up to Wilson and Bevell to prove they can adjust. I think they will eventually, but immediately? That would surprise me.

    I do think our offense is going to be amazing this year, but it could hit a bump at Carolina since Wilson is struggling and even the best run games tend to hit a wall against very good run defenses. And if the penalties show up like they did in the preseason, I would almost expect an ugly loss.

    IMO, this is the toughest game of the season. 10am, summer heat, under-rated team that matches up well against us, SF the week after, week 1 which is upset central, Wilson not looking quite like himself, and then key injuries.

    If we lose, I won't be surprised and I won't take it any harder than if we lost at Atlanta or SF. This is going to be a TOUGH game to win unless Seattle plays mistake free, which they haven't been, lately. I'd give Seattle probably a 45% chance to win. It's a huge game, especially if Carolina becomes a WC contender later this season, but if we do lose I'd count it as a losable game that we didn't win.

    Kip, I don't often think you are wrong, but I think you have this one way off. The summer heat is about the only concern I agree with, and that is a big one.

    Wilson is not struggling. I simply don't see how you are calling pre-season tinkering with an offense is equal to struggling. A bit of read option will serve to freeze some DE and safeties, things we simply did not for good reason see in the pre-season. The run game might struggle, and if it does this could be a low scoring affair.

    You have been really impressed with how Carolina played late last year. I am not. I watched those games, they beat really bad teams with one exception, Atlanta, and we saw first hand how a mobile QB turns taht Atlanta D inside out.

    Worthy of note: Rivera is not a good HC. Carolina is playing out the string with him. And Cam may have a new OC, but the much touted offensive changes this yer have mostly amounted to just letting Cam do what Cam does best and more run game. Chud was in error trying to make Cam play more traditional. But Seattle's strength is lateral speed on defense, which is where Cam makes his hay, and down the numbers to the sidelines press coverage, which is where Cam makes his best throws.

    But there is the heat.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:35 am
  • Chud FINALLY let Cam play more traditional and that's when the offense turned around. We abandoned a lot of the zone read crap and went for a more conservative play action offense. As a result Cam finished as one of the hottest passers in the league. Chud was terrible at getting too fancy. We're recommitted to the run game in a traditional sense and I think it's going to pay dividends.

    You have a terrific D, but your lack of a pass rush will allow Cam time to throw and I think that'll will make a huge impact. Even the best secodary can't cover forever and I like Olsen in this game.

    We have no household names in our secondary, but I like this group. Wilson isn't experienced enough as a passer to really worry me about him "fooling" the young CB's. I do think our front 7 is going to put a lot of pressure on him.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:55 am
  • Joat wrote:Chud FINALLY let Cam play more traditional and that's when the offense turned around. We abandoned a lot of the zone read crap and went for a more conservative play action offense. As a result Cam finished as one of the hottest passers in the league. Chud was terrible at getting too fancy. We're recommitted to the run game in a traditional sense and I think it's going to pay dividends.

    You have a terrific D, but your lack of a pass rush will allow Cam time to throw and I think that'll will make a huge impact. Even the best secodary can't cover forever and I like Olsen in this game.

    We have no household names in our secondary, but I like this group. Wilson isn't experienced enough as a passer to really worry me about him "fooling" the young CB's. I do think our front 7 is going to put a lot of pressure on him.


    What makes you think Cam is more experienced than Wilson as a passer?
    As a starter, Wilson has 4 years of college experience plus 1 year as a pro to Cam's 1 year of College experience and 2 years as a pro.
    And while your pass rush might get pressure on him, he's probably the best player in the league at escaping pressure, never mind the fact that in his last 8 regular season games he posted a passer rating of over 100 in 7 of them. The one game he managed a "paltry" 88 rating? He was pulled one series after halftime because we were 45-0 up.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 6:23 am
  • themunn wrote:What makes you think Cam is more experienced than Wilson as a passer?
    As a starter, Wilson has 4 years of college experience plus 1 year as a pro to Cam's 1 year of College experience and 2 years as a pro.
    And while your pass rush might get pressure on him, he's probably the best player in the league at escaping pressure, never mind the fact that in his last 8 regular season games he posted a passer rating of over 100 in 7 of them. The one game he managed a "paltry" 88 rating? He was pulled one series after halftime because we were 45-0 up.


    I didn't compare Wilson to Cam, I was speaking in respect to Wilson vs NFL defenders who are used to the likes of Matt Ryan, Drew Brees. I doubt his ability to move defenders with his eyes, great ball fakes and body language is where it needs to be to manipulate our D.

    As a passer Wilson is far more polished than Newton.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 6:26 am
  • If Carolina wins, they will be the first team to win a rematch with Wilson. 3-0 so far.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 3:16 pm
  • MysterMatt wrote:I expect a sloppy game, and as much as I like our prospects for the season, this one concerns me. Getting out with a win by a field goal will be just fine by me.

    I agree, with all the Hype and the travel this game worries me. I'm not really sold on the offensive guard situation at this stage of the season either. I'm sweat'n this one out from start to finish!
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:12 pm
  • As much as I hate to say it, I predicted a loss and can see it going poorly for us. This team does still have some proving to do in a few areas, and obviously early road games is one. We weren't good to start the year and I need to be shown that the last half of 2012 wasn't lightning in a bottle.

    Traveling across the country to open the season is difficult for anyone, especially us historically. That's a tough environment to play in, but if we play as fast and hit as hard as the pre-season has shown, that will increase our chances dramatically if our offense isn't tight. I don't expect us to be able to win a boat race yet. If I were a betting man, it'd be Carolina at home with points.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:16 pm
  • I think the outcome will be decided by the officials with confusion over points of emphasis and subjective interpretation.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:01 pm
  • Carolina has been aweful early in the year under Rivera. Now they have Shula as their OC and he was flat out terrible in TB. The biggestconcern is the 10 am start. Other than that, this is a game we should win if we are a serious contender.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:32 pm
  • I do remember RW's 56 yard strike to Tate at the Panther's 12, that got called back with an extra 10 yards because of Giacomini's hold.

    I also remember a 19 yard pass to some TE for a crucial 3rd down conversion that was called back 15 yards because Gio knocked a dude off his feet and out of bounds which drew a personal foul/late hit.

    Penalties happen and those plays never happened because of them, but to say we started slow because 1 man was stinking it up and called back some of our crucial plays until he got benched, is stretching the truth somewhat.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:34 pm
  • I love the fact that we are opening on the road, 10 am game (1 pm ET actually) and against a team that finished pretty strong last year. I just hope not a repeat of the '05 season opener. Great test!
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 3:16 am
  • I'm interested in seeing a new OC vs a new DC.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:11 am
  • Joat wrote:I'm interested in seeing a new OC vs a new DC.


    Make no mistake, the Defense is Pete's.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:33 am
  • So Gus Bradley added nothing?
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:49 am
  • Joat wrote:So Gus Bradley added nothing?


    Well, he added soft zone to give up huge plays at the end of 4th quarters a good number of times, for sure. ;)

    (To be clear, I don't hate Bradley or think he was a bad D-coord, I just think that was his one considerable weakness/issue.)
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:53 am
  • Joat wrote:So Gus Bradley added nothing?

    Of course he added something.

    Who runs your D, the DC, or are Rivera's fingerprints all over it? It's probably just like that in Seattle
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:56 am
  • I am definitely irritated that our pass rushers are basically ALL out... Especially pissed at Irvin, it was his fault, and the effect of his stupid mistake are magnified by the injuries around him.

    And pissed at the FedEx field grounds crew for Clemons.

    BUT, if anyone has the secondary to compensate for poor pass rush, it's Seattle.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:43 am
  • JSeahawks wrote:I think Seahawks win by 10+.

    I'll be happy with any win even by 1. That said I agree with you.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 9:01 am
  • GL to you Seahawks! have a great season! look forward to playing you again :-) love from Falcons country (dont ask, im bored and enjoyed talking to ya'll last year..so figured id visit and say hi!)
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 9:10 am
  • Scottemojo wrote:
    Joat wrote:So Gus Bradley added nothing?

    Of course he added something.

    Who runs your D, the DC, or are Rivera's fingerprints all over it? It's probably just like that in Seattle


    That's a great way to explain it.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 9:16 am
  • Panther's added S Quintin Mikell to the roster today. Given his familiarity with McDermott and the Seahawks I think he'll see quite a few snaps this Sunday.

    I wasn't that worried about our secondary, but this makes me feel better.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 9:18 am
  • CaptainSkybeard wrote:I am definitely irritated that our pass rushers are basically ALL out


    Are they?
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 11:33 am
  • Our DL is a big reason I think the Panthers emerge victorious.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:56 pm
  • Joat wrote:Our DL is a big reason I think the Panthers emerge victorious.



    The two things that PC values most are the reasons I think we will win - explosive plays plays and turnovers, especially turnovers. Yes, your D-line is improved, but our ZBS BeastMode ground game routinely handled good defensive fronts last season and even in our losses it kept us in every game (biggest margin of defeat was 7 points to SF, 13-6). I don't see your D-line putting you over the top in this game, nor will it be enough to overcome what will likely be a multi-turnover game for Cam against our secondary, which will be set up by Seattle jumping out to a wide first half lead with multiple explosive PA plays exploiting your spare secondary. With a first half lead we will go ball control BeastMode in the second half, forcing Carolina to abandon the run game in favor of the passing game to play catch-up, at which point our secondary will get multiple picks. In short, good Carolina D-line or no, I see this game being about explosive plays and turnovers, both of which Seattle should win.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:10 pm
  • Multi-turnover game?

    Well, at least you have confidence going for you.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:28 pm
  • Joat wrote:Multi-turnover game?

    Well, at least you have confidence going for you.


    Yep, I expect Cam to throw the ball to our secondary multiple times in this game. That combined with fumbles created by our many ball hawks on defense as well as our superior special teams and we will comfortably win the turnover battle in this game. It wouldn't surprise me if a good chunk of our points were scored by our defense in the form of pick-6's and fumble returns for TD's. I am very confident we will win the turnover battle, which will be even more exacerbated if we can generated explosive plays in the first half and take a double digit lead into the third quarter.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:33 pm
  • Vegas is not "dumb". They have considered travel, climate, injuries and most importantly...public perception when creating a line. Poster 1 says "3 pts is too much" and bets Carolina. Poster 2 says "3 pts is not enough" and bets Seattle. Vegas' work is done. They have created balance. Each poster bets $1000 and no matter who wins, Vegas pockets $100. Genius.

    IF suddenly $2000 comes in on Seattle and only $500 on Carolina, Vegas will rebalance by moving the line up (3.5-4, etc) to attract that Carolina bettor and will move it as far as necessary to get that mandatory balance. Vegas is only dumb when they do not attain that balance by kick off (it happens). They will then create (more) prop bets to attract money to the weak side (of their ledger) for the second qtr / 2nd half, etc.

    My approach: Because of the conditions we face (opening day hostile crowd, travel, etc) I will award Carolina a generous 7 pts for HFA. I think Vegas has done the same. That said, Vegas believes the typical bettor believes Seattle is 10 pts better than Carolina on a neutral field.

    My own line tells me Seattle is more like 13 pts better on neutral turf, which means I believe we will win by 6 @ Carolina. But that is too close to -3 for my liking. Consequently, I see no (clear) weakness in this line and will not bet this game. YMMV.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:37 pm
  • Joat wrote:Panther's added S Quintin Mikell to the roster today. Given his familiarity with McDermott and the Seahawks I think he'll see quite a few snaps this Sunday.

    I wasn't that worried about our secondary, but this makes me feel better.


    You have something in common with Russell Wilson...neither of you are worried about the Prancer secondary.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:37 pm
  • Joat wrote:Panther's added S Quintin Mikell to the roster today. Given his familiarity with McDermott and the Seahawks I think he'll see quite a few snaps this Sunday.

    I wasn't that worried about our secondary, but this makes me feel better.


    You have something in common with Russell Wilson...neither of you are worried about the Prancer secondary.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:50 pm
  • On a nuetral field I'd give the edge to Seattle, most people would.

    But with it being a home opener on the east coast I like our chances. I also think our D will wind up top 5 and it starts with this game.

    I see a Panther win by at least a TD.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:55 pm
  • HawkWow wrote:Vegas is not "dumb". They have considered travel, climate, injuries and most importantly...public perception when creating a line.


    That doesn't matter anywhere near as much as most people think it does. Vegas doesn't create odds based on who they think will win, they create odds and adjust them as the game gets closer to even out the betting, to make themselves as likely to win as often as possible.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:19 pm
  • Scottemojo wrote:Kip, I don't often think you are wrong, but I think you have this one way off. The summer heat is about the only concern I agree with, and that is a big one.

    Wilson is not struggling. I simply don't see how you are calling pre-season tinkering with an offense is equal to struggling. A bit of read option will serve to freeze some DE and safeties, things we simply did not for good reason see in the pre-season. The run game might struggle, and if it does this could be a low scoring affair.

    You have been really impressed with how Carolina played late last year. I am not. I watched those games, they beat really bad teams with one exception, Atlanta, and we saw first hand how a mobile QB turns taht Atlanta D inside out.

    Worthy of note: Rivera is not a good HC. Carolina is playing out the string with him. And Cam may have a new OC, but the much touted offensive changes this yer have mostly amounted to just letting Cam do what Cam does best and more run game. Chud was in error trying to make Cam play more traditional. But Seattle's strength is lateral speed on defense, which is where Cam makes his hay, and down the numbers to the sidelines press coverage, which is where Cam makes his best throws.

    But there is the heat.


    This post is a relief, because I was starting to think you were afraid to openly disagree with me.

    You bring up some good points, here is what I think.

    As much as I think the world of Wilson, one of his few flaws is distance accuracy. It was a problem in college, it was a problem early last season, and it was a problem this preseason. Sure, you could argue that he was over-throwing and under-throwing deep passes because he wasn't used to those WRs yet, and maybe that really is the reason. But this has been a problem for him in the past so it makes me think it probably is more than just chemistry. He also took some sacks that I thought were on him as much as anyone else.

    I do agree that in real games Wilson will be a lot better than he was in the preseason. Getting Rice, Lynch, and Miller back is huge, and the read option will open things up just like last year. That said, I did see signs of rust in the preseason and while Wilson is an elite QB, he does tend to get most of his production in spurts with little "recession" moments in-between where he looks like a mere mortal. I don't think anything is wrong with Wilson, I just think there were some potentially negative signs that he might be shaking off rust and I tend to take those signs seriously even if they turn out to be a mirage.

    Carolina has a big, fast front seven that will be very hard to run on. It is far better than last year's front seven when we faced them and Seattle had a relatively tough time running on that defense as well. If Bevell/PC are smart and use the read option to set up the pass instead of gunning for 40 carries, I think we probably do just fine on offense, but if they stubbornly stick to the run I could see another Miami situation.

    I did not watch Carolina's defense last season, but I did see them rocket up FO's season rankings, and I did watch their starting defense twice in the preseason and was highly impressed both times.

    Rivera probably is a bad coach, I don't really know much about him. That said, if Cam Newton doesn't skip rocks on 4th and goal to an open TE in the endzone, we might have lost to them last year anyway. That said, Carolina's offense sucked against us in that game and I don't expect that to be any different. I expect Seattle's defense to dominate. Newton has looked pretty bad in the preseason and their RB situation is a mess.

    I just put up a post earlier today (before I saw this response) saying I feel a lot better about the Carolina game now, but I do think our offense will wait to the 2nd half to wake up, similar to the Jets game last year. That is unless Seattle unloads on Carolina early with a ton of play action. I think Carolina is really going to game plan the run, despite the fact that based on the matchup, they should do the opposite. They know that Seattle likes to run the ball often early in games, and that our offense is a lot less comfortable on 3rd and longs.

    I know it was preseason, but Oakland went all out to attack our run offense because they didn't really have the pass rushers to do what Green Bay did to us the week before. I think Carolina is in the same boat. They will blitz the run and stack the box early, and though I'd love to be wrong, I think Pete will play right into their hands (ala Miami) before snapping out of it at half time.
    Last edited by kearly on Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:43 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:38 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    HawkWow wrote:Vegas is not "dumb". They have considered travel, climate, injuries and most importantly...public perception when creating a line.


    That doesn't matter anywhere near as much as most people think it does. Vegas doesn't create odds based on who they think will win, they create odds and adjust them as the game gets closer to even out the betting, to make themselves as likely to win as often as possible.


    With all respect, I sincerely hope you do not believe public perception does not play a role in the line setting. Such a belief would make you 100% inaccurate.

    If you read my entire post, you will see I never said Vegas sets the line based on who Vegas thinks will win (!?)...you would also see that I said they adjust the line based on incoming action. This incoming action, by definition, IS public perception.

    I have made book and set lines for better than 25 years. This is a rather serious subject and I encourage you to get your facts straight before arguing accurate information.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:40 pm
  • Vegas puts the line initially where they think it makes the most sense, but the ultimate goal is to get an equal number of people betting on both sides of the line, so it will of course move based purely on public perception.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:42 pm
  • I cant believe it is only 3.

    This team is not going to come out and lay an egg to start the season. Not after all the buildup. Pete will have these guys ready to dominate.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:50 pm
  • kearly wrote:Vegas puts the line initially where they think it makes the most sense, but the ultimate goal is to get an equal number of people betting on both sides of the line, so it will of course move based purely on public perception.


    Exactly. The initial line is published with the belief it will get equal action from both sides. The line will then adjust accordingly (if necessary) thereafter.

    The savvy bettor sets his own lines using a rather typical system (can run, can stop run, propensity for take aways. give aways, sacks for and against, turf, injuries, etc, etc). He does this without peeking at Vegas' line (too easy to be distracted by it). Once he has established his own lines, he looks at the Vegas lines, finds a weakness, then exploits that weakness. I typically spend no less than 50 hrs per week searching for that weakness. It's a grind, if done correctly. And still nothing is assured.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:53 pm
  • I was one of the guys who was very concerned going to AZ last year. Knowing that they would come after the rookie hard, I saw a low scoring game, with little chance of winning while RW got up to speed.

    RW picked up the game a lot sooner than I thought though and actually got some offense going. They could have easily won that game, which would have changed everything. While I have my reservations about another 10AM road game to start the season, I am far more confident now than I was then.

    Last year, RW threw his only pick 6 of the season, he also had a freak play end up as a pick too. Even with that, he still played good enough to win. That won't happen again, it will be a much cleaner Wilson.

    The teams are different yes, but offensively the Hawks are miles ahead of where they were. The Panthers? Their improvement from that time is not something to rave about. I think the Hawks probably win this by 6, but the line is good at 3. If the offense is on? Not even close.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:20 pm
  • Should be 23 and not 3. What a joke!!!! Time to go out to the casino and put some money down.
    Colin Kaepernick wrote:I think our efficiency in the huddle was more of a factor than the crowd.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 9:10 pm
  • loafoftatupu wrote:I was one of the guys who was very concerned going to AZ last year. Knowing that they would come after the rookie hard, I saw a low scoring game, with little chance of winning while RW got up to speed.

    RW picked up the game a lot sooner than I thought though and actually got some offense going. They could have easily won that game, which would have changed everything. While I have my reservations about another 10AM road game to start the season, I am far more confident now than I was then.

    Last year, RW threw his only pick 6 of the season, he also had a freak play end up as a pick too. Even with that, he still played good enough to win. That won't happen again, it will be a much cleaner Wilson.

    The teams are different yes, but offensively the Hawks are miles ahead of where they were. The Panthers? Their improvement from that time is not something to rave about. I think the Hawks probably win this by 6, but the line is good at 3. If the offense is on? Not even close.



    Totally agree. I am positive (barring the unforeseen) RW will make Tate a household name by mid-season. We have the best back field in football (IMO) as well as the best secondary in football. This time last year, this young team had no reason to be overly confident....this year, they know who they are and confidence is not exactly in short supply. We might need to keep that in check, though.

    We just need to prove we can win consistently on the road. Home? We could win at home with TJack! ; ) Go Hawks!
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 9:13 pm
  • C-Dub wrote:Should be 23 and not 3. What a joke!!!! Time to go out to the casino and put some money down.



    May luck be on your side.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 10:05 pm
  • HawkWow wrote:With all respect, I sincerely hope you do not believe public perception does not play a role in the line setting. Such a belief would make you 100% inaccurate.

    Public perception is largely irrelevant in the SETTING of the line. Public perception CHANGES the line after it's initially set. Vegas could put out a line right now for 1.25-1 odds that the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl, and it will generate a flood of betting against it. It almost doesn't even MATTER what the initial line is that Vegas sets for most things, because the action they get dictates how it changes after it's set.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 10:44 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    HawkWow wrote:With all respect, I sincerely hope you do not believe public perception does not play a role in the line setting. Such a belief would make you 100% inaccurate.

    Public perception is largely irrelevant in the SETTING of the line. Public perception CHANGES the line after it's initially set. Vegas could put out a line right now for 1.25-1 odds that the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl, and it will generate a flood of betting against it. It almost doesn't even MATTER what the initial line is that Vegas sets for most things, because the action they get dictates how it changes after it's set.



    Do you think they just pull a number out of a hat...and then let the betting public dictate its swings?

    The scariest thing in the world for Vegas is to open with a bad line that gets hammered. IE; They set the line at -3 (instead of let's say-7) smart bettors see that weakness and jump on it..BIG and fast. Vegas is now concerned. Seldom happens, but they may have to go as high as -8 to balance the action. When they do that...those same smart bettors turn around and bet the same amount, but the other way hoping for the middle. Best case, bettor wins BOTH bets...worse case, he loses a paltry 10%.

    Vegas don't like that and use a quick checklist to set the opening line. And if you do this as much as I do...you'll see the lines actually change very little. That's becuz they are very good and have a very good idea of what the PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION of this game will be. Watch this weeks lines. You will see very little swing as the bets come in. That's not an accident...that's a solid initial line. I won't discuss this any further.
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