Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina

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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:21 am
  • I also missed the previous thread about whether we started slowly or not. I believe the way to look at it would be with win probability plots from a site like advancednflstats or ideally one that released the data in tabular form, and estimate the overall slope. For the context of this discussion, you probably want to look specifically at road games because "starts slowly on the road" is the criticism that Vegas seems to have against us.
    Last edited by AgentDib on Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:23 am
  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    bestfightstory wrote:No. We absolutely did not. I debunked that myth a week or two ago. On 8/9/2013, actually. And kearly acknowledged it. Nuff said.


    Based on what? Also, I decided to check this myself based on points, and it certainly appears that I'm right based on points scored/allowed overall based on half. Here, I added them up; and the only reason offense is virtually dead even is because of the three games in a row towards the end where we had first-half blowouts.

    Seahawks offensive points scored in the first half and the second half, then defensive points allowed in first half and second half:

    Week 1: 3/13, 10/10
    Week 2: 13/14, 7/0
    Week 3: 7/7, 0/12
    Week 4: 7/6, 13/6
    Week 5: 6/10, 3/9
    Week 6: 10/14, 17/6
    Week 7: 6/0, 3/10
    Week 8: 17/7, 14/14
    Week 9: 20/10, 17/3
    Week 10: 14/14, 7/0
    Week 12: 7/14, 7/17
    Week 13: 10/13, 7/10
    Week 14: 38/20, 0/0 (lol)
    Week 15: 31/19, 17/0
    Week 16: 28/14, 6/7
    Week 17: 3/17, 7/6
    Week 18: 13/11, 14/0
    Week 19: 0/28, 20/10

    Offensive totals: 233 points scored in the first half, 231 points scored in the second half. Three outlier games in a row starting with the Cardinals bumped the first half total up DRAMATICALLY. We scored more points in the second half of a game 8 times, and scored more points in the first half 8 times; an even split, with two games allowing the same number of points in both halves. Factor in the fact that defenses get tired towards the end of games, and you should see more offensive scoring in the second half than the first, on average. The only reason this is even is because of that three-game hot streak we had towards the end of the regular season. It took that just to even it out; otherwise, there's a pretty good difference in points scored in the first half versus the second half.

    Defensive totals: 169 points allowed in the first half, 120 points allowed in the second half. When you again remember to factor in the fact that defenses tire towards the end of games along with us having blown several games in the 4th quarter last year, that is a mightily impressive differential. The Seahawks allowed WAY fewer points in the second half than in the first half, on average.

    BFS, can you link the thread you're referring to? I don't recall it, and I'd like to see what it's based on; because the overall scoring trends sure agree with the assertion that we were slow starters as a team more often than not.


    Dude, your subjective look on starting slow is dumb. Just because the second halves were better, doesnt correlate to first halves being slow. You need to put that data up against league averages per half. Cmon, your smarter then this. Or at least you pretend to be.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:30 am
  • Cartire wrote:Dude, your subjective look on starting slow is dumb. Just because the second halves were better, doesnt correlate to first halves being slow. You need to put that data up against league averages per half. Cmon, your smarter then this. Or at least you pretend to be.

    Unless he is looking at whether the team started relatively slow, and that may be more reflective of how fans are looking at it. In other words, I may be concerned that the Seahawks under performed in the first half based on their own potential, not compared to a team like the Miami Dolphins. There are many ways to interpret "starting slow."
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:35 am
  • AgentDib wrote:
    Cartire wrote:Dude, your subjective look on starting slow is dumb. Just because the second halves were better, doesnt correlate to first halves being slow. You need to put that data up against league averages per half. Cmon, your smarter then this. Or at least you pretend to be.

    Unless he is looking at whether the team started relatively slow, and that may be more reflective of how fans are looking at it. In other words, I may be concerned that the Seahawks under performed in the first half based on their own potential, not compared to a team like the Miami Dolphins. There are many ways to interpret "starting slow."


    His interpertation is that because the second half was better, the first half was slow. Why cant the first half be normal and the second half be better?

    You have to compare to a constant if your going to make the claim that we are slow. The constant is the league average in first halves. Not our own record in second halves.

    And the less subjective the better. Otherwise, all you get is "feelings" which is good enough to be an NFL.com analyst (ps, dont strive to be that).
    hawksincebirth wrote:So Russell has leverage but marshawn doesn't ? I thought its next man up. Hey we got t jack and bj Daniels right ??
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:42 am
  • Cartire wrote:Dude, your subjective look on starting slow is dumb. Just because the second halves were better, doesnt correlate to first halves being slow.

    Actually, when your defense consistently allows more points when they're fresh and less points when they're tired, that does in fact PROVE there is a correlation. Apply a little logic, Car.

    Cartire wrote:You need to put that data up against league averages per half. Cmon, your smarter then this. Or at least you pretend to be.

    I'm not going to spend hours and hours writing down and adding those numbers for the other 31 teams in the league. You can feel free to literally spend the next 10 hours doing that, if you want. Also, for a season average, it's NOT just dumb. Points are the single largest stat to measure performance by, by a huge margin. When you see a trend over the course of an entire season, it's not dumb.

    Cartire wrote:His interpertation is that because the second half was better, the first half was slow. Why cant the first half be normal and the second half be better?

    Dude, if the second half is faster, the first half is slower no matter what. How slow overall compared to the rest of the league is a hard thing to quantify, feel free to do it, but WE WERE SLOWER in the first half than in the second half. Even if our first half performance is not slow at all by league standards, it doesn't change the fact that WE were slower in the first half than in the second. You're killin' me, Smalls.
    Last edited by RolandDeschain on Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:43 am
  • First drives the Seahawks killed it. Of course it took Bevell half a year to get points every time.

    The 1st Rams game sticks out. The Hawks flat-out dominated the Rams on the ground. They did whatever they wanted. But, no points.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:45 am
  • Cartire wrote:His interpertation is that because the second half was better, the first half was slow. Why cant the first half be normal and the second half be better? You have to compare to a constant if your going to make the claim that we are slow. The constant is the league average in first halves. Not our own record in second halves.

    Because in both cases, I think it is perfectly reasonable to feel that your team started slow based on their own potential. The constant you may want to compare to is their own average production.

    I do agree with you that a difference in production doesn't automatically imply something is wrong. After all, you would expect an offense with Carroll's philosophy to do slightly better as games progressed as your successful running game was able to wear down their defensive line.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:46 am
  • Sarlacc83 wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:If Carolina was smart, they'd just run the ball down our throats with the makeshift D-Line we're going to have. Which also worries the hell out of me for week 2 if we don't start getting some of these guys back.


    This would worry me more if DeAngelo Williams was any good and Stewart wasn't out. Same with Frank Gore and the 49ers.


    So you don't think Gore and the SF Line are good? That my friend, is crazy talk.

    You saw what Gore and the SF line did to us the first time we met last year, and that was WITH most of our healthy D-Line. SF has arguably the best O-Line in the NFL, I can guarantee you they're going to try and ram the ball down our throats..............and this time they won't be coming off an exhausting cross country trip to NE where they had to use up all their energy staving off a torrid NE comeback.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:58 am
  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    Cartire wrote:You need to put that data up against league averages per half. Cmon, your smarter then this. Or at least you pretend to be.

    I'm not going to spend hours and hours writing down and adding those numbers for the other 31 teams in the league. You can feel free to literally spend the next 10 hours doing that, if you want. Also, for a season average, it's NOT just dumb. Points are the single largest stat to measure performance by, by a huge margin. When you see a trend over the course of an entire season, it's not dumb.



    Spending 10 hours ..... Only you, iRo, would go into such Hyperbole.

    First Half/Second Half Offensive points.
    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/1s ... s-per-game
    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/2n ... s-per-game

    First Half/Second Half points allowed. (note, you dont want to rank 1st on these)

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/op ... s-per-game
    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/op ... s-per-game

    Wooo, 10 hours down in about 23 seconds.

    So now you know, against the average, or defense was 5th best team in the first half, and 1st best in the second half.
    Our offense was 9th best in the first half and 11th in the second half.

    Now please, enlighten me with your all powerful brain, are we really "slow" to start?
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:00 am
  • peachesenregalia wrote:We own Cam Newton


    Um, we've played Newton ONCE, and if he hadn't thrown that 4th down ball into the dirt in the end zone at an open receiver's feet, we likely lose that game.

    Now, that's not to say that we shouldn't win. I think we should. But anyone acting like this is a cakewalk hasn't been watching Carolina at ALL. They won 5 of their last 6 games in 2012, and Newton played pretty strongly down the stretch (10/2 TD to INT ratio over those 6 games, with 4 rushing TDs added on).

    Now, it's true that Carolina's secondary is awful, and that the receiving corps is essentially the corpse of Steve Smith and nobody else. But that being said, upsets happen all the time in Week 1, and defenses are usually still well ahead of offenses the first week of the season. Carolina will be playing in front of a raucous crowd (or at least as raucous as they get there), so their D will feed off of that. Their front 7 isn't "decent." It's one of the top in the game, and Keuchly is a monster and a half. If our offense has a hard time getting in rhythm, it could be a long day for the Seahawks. Add to that our issues along the D-line with injury and suspensions. We won there last year in part because we had Clemons and Irvin wreaking havoc on Newton. Guess who we don't have in week 1?

    You can strut and thump your chest all you like about a Seahawks beatdown, and I sincerely hope you get to rub it in my face how right you were, but I think it's going to be a very, very close game and that we'll be lucky to escape with a W.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:02 am
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Sarlacc83 wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:If Carolina was smart, they'd just run the ball down our throats with the makeshift D-Line we're going to have. Which also worries the hell out of me for week 2 if we don't start getting some of these guys back.


    This would worry me more if DeAngelo Williams was any good and Stewart wasn't out. Same with Frank Gore and the 49ers.


    So you don't think Gore and the SF Line are good? That my friend, is crazy talk.

    You saw what Gore and the SF line did to us the first time we met last year, and that was WITH most of our healthy D-Line. SF has arguably the best O-Line in the NFL, I can guarantee you they're going to try and ram the ball down our throats..............and this time they won't be coming off an exhausting cross country trip to NE where they had to use up all their energy staving off a torrid NE comeback.


    I never mentioned the SF line. Gore, however, is now on the wrong side of 30 and I think he's going to be remarkably less effective this year.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:22 am
  • Seahwkgal wrote:We shouldn't be. Carolina is a much better team now than the one we faced last season. We have key players that will/might not play. The oddsmakers are dumb here. JMO.

    Unless that secondary suddenly morphs into something good and they suddenly find a 2nd/3rd WR we have nothing to worry about. That team still has 6-10 written all over them and Cam for all his athleticism still can't throw the ball with accuracy.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:27 am
  • Sarlacc83 wrote:
    I never mentioned the SF line. Gore, however, is now on the wrong side of 30 and I think he's going to be remarkably less effective this year.


    Maybe. Gore's stats are almost identical in 2011 and 2012, so don't really see where you're getting a drop off from, other than he's just a year older.

    My point is don't expect a drubbing of the niners like last year at home. I still like us at home against ANYBODY, but make no mistake this game should be close.

    As far as the Panthers game, I always hate road games to start the season, because even bad teams play like it's the Superbowl at home in game #1. So yeah, Carolina might end up 6-10, but they won't play like 6-10 until week #6. Week #1 with a full house, I expect this to be a very tough game.

    Remember how we all thought we'd go down to Arizona and beat the crap out of a bad Cards team in week #1 last year?
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:29 am
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Sarlacc83 wrote:
    I never mentioned the SF line. Gore, however, is now on the wrong side of 30 and I think he's going to be remarkably less effective this year.


    Maybe. Gore's stats are almost identical in 2011 and 2012, so don't really see where you're getting a drop off from, other than he's just a year older.

    My point is don't expect a drubbing of the niners like last year at home. I still like us at home against ANYBODY, but make no mistake this game should be close.

    As far as the Panthers game, I always hate road games to start the season, because even bad teams play like it's the Superbowl at home in game #1. So yeah, Carolina might end up 6-10, but they won't play like 6-10 until week #6. Week #1 with a full house, I expect this to be a very tough game.

    Remember how we all thought we'd go down to Arizona and beat the crap out of a bad Cards team in week #1 last year?

    But that was with a rookie quarterback on a tight leash and a divisonal game. All factors that made that game not at all comparable to the Carolina game. I figure it should be close with us winning by around 10 in the end.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:32 am
  • C-Dub wrote:
    SoulfishHawk wrote:Gotta pound the rock all...fricken....day

    That's going to be very tough. Open the run game up first by attacking the secondary.

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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:42 am
  • Sarlacc83 wrote:
    Sgt. Largent wrote:If Carolina was smart, they'd just run the ball down our throats with the makeshift D-Line we're going to have. Which also worries the hell out of me for week 2 if we don't start getting some of these guys back.


    This would worry me more if DeAngelo Williams was any good and Stewart wasn't out. Same with Frank Gore and the 49ers.

    This!

    The only guys that scares me running the ball is Cam. Contain his running and force him to throw.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:59 am
  • Id love to see Wilson have his biggest passing game as a hawk. 400+ yards and 4 TD's.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:12 am
  • Chukarhawk wrote:Id love to see Wilson have his biggest passing game as a hawk. 400+ yards and 4 TD's.

    Of course we would all love to see that, but will our offensive line give him three seconds for those routes to develop? Carolina's defense matches up very well against mobile QBs and they practice against an offense who's QB led the team in rushing last season.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:47 am
  • grizbob wrote:This place is sounding eerily similar to a year ago :180670: :141847_bnono:


    Luckily for us, it doesn't matter how this forum sounds, just how the team plays.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 12:49 pm
  • I would call this a Pick 'em at best. I think that there is a very good chance Seattle loses this game.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 12:57 pm
  • I'd probably put the odds at -1 Carolina. Seattle is statistically (DVOA) close to a dead average team on the road, plays worse than that at 10 am, and Carolina is riding a 4 game winning streak from the end of last season. Their weighted DVOA defense ranked 12th last season after finishing dead last year prior. They finished the year on a bit of a roll on defense and that was before they drafted two promising DTs in the draft to shore up their defense's biggest weakness. If you've watched Luke Kuechly play, particularly this preseason, you know how much of a monster he's becoming.

    By contrast, Seattle is hobbled and stumbling a bit. They will be starting their 4th and 5th string pass rushers on the ends. We probably have the best #4 and #5 options in the league, but still, these guys were considered roster fringe less than a month ago. Russell Wilson has shown different varieties of rust in each preseason game so far.

    Carolina's run defense ranked 11th last season and that was without Star Lotulelei and Jon Beason, who are both outstanding run defenders. I hope Pete has the brains to be more pass oriented in this game- Carolina's pass defense is merely average but their run defense could be a problem. Very similar to the situation in Miami last year.

    Our saving grace is that Cam Newton struggled last season and hasn't gotten better this preseason. Carolina's running game (sans Newton) was a joke even before they lost Stewart. Barring injury our run defense looks special. Shutting out Carolina's offense is a real possibility, although it's worth noting that Seattle actually lost a game last season against a team that didn't score an offensive touchdown, and they nearly lost two more against teams that scored 14 points or less. Also, our defense had most of their worst performances in 10 starts am last season.

    Sure, those were early season games before Wilson clicked, but Wilson hasn't looked like he's in mid-season form this preseason and is making uncharacteristic mistakes. Teams have figured out how to make Wilson uncomfortable with interior pressure, delayed blitzing and gap-controlling D-lineman. It's up to Wilson and Bevell to prove they can adjust. I think they will eventually, but immediately? That would surprise me.

    I do think our offense is going to be amazing this year, but it could hit a bump at Carolina since Wilson is struggling and even the best run games tend to hit a wall against very good run defenses. And if the penalties show up like they did in the preseason, I would almost expect an ugly loss.

    IMO, this is the toughest game of the season. 10am, summer heat, under-rated team that matches up well against us, SF the week after, week 1 which is upset central, Wilson not looking quite like himself, and then key injuries.

    If we lose, I won't be surprised and I won't take it any harder than if we lost at Atlanta or SF. This is going to be a TOUGH game to win unless Seattle plays mistake free, which they haven't been, lately. I'd give Seattle probably a 45% chance to win. It's a huge game, especially if Carolina becomes a WC contender later this season, but if we do lose I'd count it as a losable game that we didn't win.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 1:40 pm
  • I disagree, I wouldn't look at Wilson's preseason as an indication of rust. More likely is Wilson working without Lynch for most of his time, Robinson and Miller out, and Rice as well on the outside. Getting everyone on the same page is the bigger issue and one that shouldn't hinder the offense once Miller and Lynch are back.

    I'm only really concerned about missing Clemons and Irvin on defense, but even without them people are forgetting Bennett who has plenty of experience against Newton at the line of scrimmage. Also, Wagner is playing so much better than this time last season I feel pretty confident against the Carolina offense without our best pass rushers. I'd feel a lot better with Irvin back though but Clemons isn't officially out just yet, not a time to think Carolina is going to clobber us.

    This is probably going to look more like the Chicago game from Pete's first season when our team went in and manhandled Cutler with blitzes and stunts. Also, I don't believe Newton has the patience to take what the D gives him and will try an create a big play right of the bat or force throws to Smith all day, playing right into the hands of Seattle's secondary. I guess we'll find out pretty soon though.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:14 pm
  • kearly wrote:I'd probably put the odds at -1 Carolina. Seattle is statistically (DVOA) close to a dead average team on the road, plays worse than that at 10 am,

    We only played slightly worse at 10am on the road compared to 1pm and later on the road last year, though. (2.025%)

    @Arizona: -16.8%
    @St. Louis (10am): 12.8%
    @Carolina: 57.5%
    @San Francisco: 4.9%
    @Detroit (10am): 23.4%
    @Miami (10am): -3.1%
    @Chicago (10am): 40.4%
    @Buffalo: 36.0%

    Average DVOA on the road, 1pm and later: 20.4%
    Average DVOA on the road at 10am: 18.375%

    I think the 10am thing is dead and gone with us, and I think this year will demonstrate that. It was basically irrelevant last year, and we're a better team in 2013.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:18 pm
  • I just cannot allow myself to believe that this team, which has prepared the way it has all offseason, is capable of starting off the 2013 campaign with an 'L'.

    They have worked too hard and visualized too many great things to disappoint at the opening gun.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:34 pm
  • Cartire wrote:Spending 10 hours ..... Only you, iRo, would go into such Hyperbole.

    It wasn't hyperbole. What I posted, I manually added up from looking at the games; and that took a bit of time for one team. I've never heard of teamrankings.com, the sites I normally go to for stats don't have half-based stats like that. (PFF and FO)

    Cartire wrote:Now please, enlighten me with your all powerful brain, are we really "slow" to start?

    Those links prove what I asserted, we started SLOWER than we finished based on half, overall. Even a million miles an hour is slower than 2 million. It can still be slow comparatively, junior. For instance, a 3-3 start to the season is slow, or bad, for the Patriots; but fast, or good, for the Browns. Comprehend, yet?

    Thanks for that site, I plan to add it to my repertoire; but you need to understand that you just proved me right.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:39 pm
  • I think the 10am thing is dead and gone with us, and I think this year will demonstrate that. It was basically irrelevant last year, and we're a better team in 2013.
    I certainly agree with this.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:47 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    Cartire wrote:Spending 10 hours ..... Only you, iRo, would go into such Hyperbole.

    It wasn't hyperbole. What I posted, I manually added up from looking at the games; and that took a bit of time for one team. I've never heard of teamrankings.com, the sites I normally go to for stats don't have half-based stats like that. (PFF and FO)

    Cartire wrote:Now please, enlighten me with your all powerful brain, are we really "slow" to start?

    Those links prove what I asserted, we started SLOWER than we finished based on half, overall. Even a million miles an hour is slower than 2 million. It can still be slow comparatively, junior. For instance, a 3-3 start to the season is slow, or bad, for the Patriots; but fast, or good, for the Browns. Comprehend, yet?

    Thanks for that site, I plan to add it to my repertoire; but you need to understand that you just proved me right.



    I proved nothing but your subjectiveness. You say slow, because we are slower then the second half. The only other option is faster then the second half and then you would say, we need to finish out games faster (oh, and I know the third choice of a completely even count on both sides, not going to happen). That why you cant compare to the second half, you compare to the average of a constant. Your logic is flawed. And dont try to pretend its not. Its ok to be wrong once in awhile Roland.

    We dont start games slow compared to the normal game from a normal team. We start faster then that. I dont care if were slower then the 2nd half, because its not relative. One side has to be greater.
    hawksincebirth wrote:So Russell has leverage but marshawn doesn't ? I thought its next man up. Hey we got t jack and bj Daniels right ??
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:10 pm
  • Car, your grammar reflects your ability to contemplate this subject.

    I guess starting off spotting 20 points to Atlanta and 14 points to Washington weren't slow starts, either. Whatever you say, dude.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:14 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:Car, your grammar reflects your ability to contemplate this subject.

    I guess starting off spotting 20 points to Atlanta and 14 points to Washington weren't slow starts, either. Whatever you say, dude.


    Nice, introducing the strawman.

    iRo, the Grammar nazi, will save the day. Your argument must be wrong because your grammar says so.

    You chose two outliers (weren't you just the one in your own stats that called AZ, Buf, and SF outliers) and thats your basis. I love it.

    Roland, the man who can never admit hes wrong. Stay strong brother. Were all rooting for you.
    hawksincebirth wrote:So Russell has leverage but marshawn doesn't ? I thought its next man up. Hey we got t jack and bj Daniels right ??
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:16 pm
  • The grammar thing is SOOOOO DEAD and over with. We get it Roland...we all get it...you prefer proper spelling and punctuation. We all assume you're ticked off about grammar now, really, you waste time posting it.

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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:17 pm
  • KCHawkGirl wrote:
    I think the 10am thing is dead and gone with us, and I think this year will demonstrate that. It was basically irrelevant last year, and we're a better team in 2013.
    I certainly agree with this.


    Not sure why you would think the 10am thing is dead and gone considering the very last game this team played was at 10am and they started it like crap
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:25 pm
  • I have a feeling #3 wont let silly things like 10 AM or road history be an issue any more. Here we all are debating as if we've ever had a top 5 QB before. It's different. So different we don't know how to react.

    I don't blame any of you for holding on to doubt, we're a victimized, beaten down fanbase. But, not anymore.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:35 pm
  • kearly wrote:I'd probably put the odds at -1 Carolina. Seattle is statistically (DVOA) close to a dead average team on the road, plays worse than that at 10 am, and Carolina is riding a 4 game winning streak from the end of last season. Their weighted DVOA defense ranked 12th last season after finishing dead last year prior. They finished the year on a bit of a roll on defense and that was before they drafted two promising DTs in the draft to shore up their defense's biggest weakness. If you've watched Luke Kuechly play, particularly this preseason, you know how much of a monster he's becoming.

    By contrast, Seattle is hobbled and stumbling a bit. They will be starting their 4th and 5th string pass rushers on the ends. We probably have the best #4 and #5 options in the league, but still, these guys were considered roster fringe less than a month ago. Russell Wilson has shown different varieties of rust in each preseason game so far.

    Carolina's run defense ranked 11th last season and that was without Star Lotulelei and Jon Beason, who are both outstanding run defenders. I hope Pete has the brains to be more pass oriented in this game- Carolina's pass defense is merely average but their run defense could be a problem. Very similar to the situation in Miami last year.

    Our saving grace is that Cam Newton struggled last season and hasn't gotten better this preseason. Carolina's running game (sans Newton) was a joke even before they lost Stewart. Barring injury our run defense looks special. Shutting out Carolina's offense is a real possibility, although it's worth noting that Seattle actually lost a game last season against a team that didn't score an offensive touchdown, and they nearly lost two more against teams that scored 14 points or less. Also, our defense had most of their worst performances in 10 starts am last season.

    Sure, those were early season games before Wilson clicked, but Wilson hasn't looked like he's in mid-season form this preseason and is making uncharacteristic mistakes. Teams have figured out how to make Wilson uncomfortable with interior pressure, delayed blitzing and gap-controlling D-lineman. It's up to Wilson and Bevell to prove they can adjust. I think they will eventually, but immediately? That would surprise me.

    I do think our offense is going to be amazing this year, but it could hit a bump at Carolina since Wilson is struggling and even the best run games tend to hit a wall against very good run defenses. And if the penalties show up like they did in the preseason, I would almost expect an ugly loss.

    IMO, this is the toughest game of the season. 10am, summer heat, under-rated team that matches up well against us, SF the week after, week 1 which is upset central, Wilson not looking quite like himself, and then key injuries.

    If we lose, I won't be surprised and I won't take it any harder than if we lost at Atlanta or SF. This is going to be a TOUGH game to win unless Seattle plays mistake free, which they haven't been, lately. I'd give Seattle probably a 45% chance to win. It's a huge game, especially if Carolina becomes a WC contender later this season, but if we do lose I'd count it as a losable game that we didn't win.

    I am totally with Kearly on this. I stated my opinion very early in the thread and got called an idiot for it. I am not wearing rose-colored glasses here. Kearly pretty much summed up everything I wanted to point out. I WANT us to win badly but if we lose, I won't be shocked at all. The first team(including Wilson) has not impressed me at all. Add the injuries...Well. I think I will just pray for a miracle.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 4:25 pm
  • Seahwkgal wrote:We shouldn't be. Carolina is a much better team now than the one we faced last season. We have key players that will/might not play. The oddsmakers are dumb here. JMO.


    Aren't the Seahawks better too? Russell was still under wraps in last year's game.

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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 4:32 pm
  • kf3339 wrote:
    JSeahawks wrote:I think Seahawks win by 10+.

    :13:


    i'm on this wagon. :thirishdrinkers:
    I don't know why I bother... no one cares what I think.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Thu Aug 29, 2013 4:34 pm
  • Missing_Clink wrote:
    KCHawkGirl wrote:
    I think the 10am thing is dead and gone with us, and I think this year will demonstrate that. It was basically irrelevant last year, and we're a better team in 2013.
    I certainly agree with this.


    Not sure why you would think the 10am thing is dead and gone considering the very last game this team played was at 10am and they started it like crap

    well, for one, that game was not against Carolina. :stirthepot:
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:03 am
  • Who are you guys going to be missing in this game?

    Panthers will be without Jonathan Stewart and RG Amini Silatolu.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:14 am
  • Joat wrote:Who are you guys going to be missing in this game?

    Panthers will be without Jonathan Stewart and RG Amini Silatolu.



    All of our known passrushers. And Percy Harvin.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:18 am
  • kearly wrote:I'd probably put the odds at -1 Carolina. Seattle is statistically (DVOA) close to a dead average team on the road, plays worse than that at 10 am, and Carolina is riding a 4 game winning streak from the end of last season. Their weighted DVOA defense ranked 12th last season after finishing dead last year prior. They finished the year on a bit of a roll on defense and that was before they drafted two promising DTs in the draft to shore up their defense's biggest weakness. If you've watched Luke Kuechly play, particularly this preseason, you know how much of a monster he's becoming.

    By contrast, Seattle is hobbled and stumbling a bit. They will be starting their 4th and 5th string pass rushers on the ends. We probably have the best #4 and #5 options in the league, but still, these guys were considered roster fringe less than a month ago. Russell Wilson has shown different varieties of rust in each preseason game so far.

    Carolina's run defense ranked 11th last season and that was without Star Lotulelei and Jon Beason, who are both outstanding run defenders. I hope Pete has the brains to be more pass oriented in this game- Carolina's pass defense is merely average but their run defense could be a problem. Very similar to the situation in Miami last year.

    Our saving grace is that Cam Newton struggled last season and hasn't gotten better this preseason. Carolina's running game (sans Newton) was a joke even before they lost Stewart. Barring injury our run defense looks special. Shutting out Carolina's offense is a real possibility, although it's worth noting that Seattle actually lost a game last season against a team that didn't score an offensive touchdown, and they nearly lost two more against teams that scored 14 points or less. Also, our defense had most of their worst performances in 10 starts am last season.

    Sure, those were early season games before Wilson clicked, but Wilson hasn't looked like he's in mid-season form this preseason and is making uncharacteristic mistakes. Teams have figured out how to make Wilson uncomfortable with interior pressure, delayed blitzing and gap-controlling D-lineman. It's up to Wilson and Bevell to prove they can adjust. I think they will eventually, but immediately? That would surprise me.

    I do think our offense is going to be amazing this year, but it could hit a bump at Carolina since Wilson is struggling and even the best run games tend to hit a wall against very good run defenses. And if the penalties show up like they did in the preseason, I would almost expect an ugly loss.

    IMO, this is the toughest game of the season. 10am, summer heat, under-rated team that matches up well against us, SF the week after, week 1 which is upset central, Wilson not looking quite like himself, and then key injuries.

    If we lose, I won't be surprised and I won't take it any harder than if we lost at Atlanta or SF. This is going to be a TOUGH game to win unless Seattle plays mistake free, which they haven't been, lately. I'd give Seattle probably a 45% chance to win. It's a huge game, especially if Carolina becomes a WC contender later this season, but if we do lose I'd count it as a losable game that we didn't win.

    Kip, I don't often think you are wrong, but I think you have this one way off. The summer heat is about the only concern I agree with, and that is a big one.

    Wilson is not struggling. I simply don't see how you are calling pre-season tinkering with an offense is equal to struggling. A bit of read option will serve to freeze some DE and safeties, things we simply did not for good reason see in the pre-season. The run game might struggle, and if it does this could be a low scoring affair.

    You have been really impressed with how Carolina played late last year. I am not. I watched those games, they beat really bad teams with one exception, Atlanta, and we saw first hand how a mobile QB turns taht Atlanta D inside out.

    Worthy of note: Rivera is not a good HC. Carolina is playing out the string with him. And Cam may have a new OC, but the much touted offensive changes this yer have mostly amounted to just letting Cam do what Cam does best and more run game. Chud was in error trying to make Cam play more traditional. But Seattle's strength is lateral speed on defense, which is where Cam makes his hay, and down the numbers to the sidelines press coverage, which is where Cam makes his best throws.

    But there is the heat.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:35 am
  • Chud FINALLY let Cam play more traditional and that's when the offense turned around. We abandoned a lot of the zone read crap and went for a more conservative play action offense. As a result Cam finished as one of the hottest passers in the league. Chud was terrible at getting too fancy. We're recommitted to the run game in a traditional sense and I think it's going to pay dividends.

    You have a terrific D, but your lack of a pass rush will allow Cam time to throw and I think that'll will make a huge impact. Even the best secodary can't cover forever and I like Olsen in this game.

    We have no household names in our secondary, but I like this group. Wilson isn't experienced enough as a passer to really worry me about him "fooling" the young CB's. I do think our front 7 is going to put a lot of pressure on him.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:55 am
  • Joat wrote:Chud FINALLY let Cam play more traditional and that's when the offense turned around. We abandoned a lot of the zone read crap and went for a more conservative play action offense. As a result Cam finished as one of the hottest passers in the league. Chud was terrible at getting too fancy. We're recommitted to the run game in a traditional sense and I think it's going to pay dividends.

    You have a terrific D, but your lack of a pass rush will allow Cam time to throw and I think that'll will make a huge impact. Even the best secodary can't cover forever and I like Olsen in this game.

    We have no household names in our secondary, but I like this group. Wilson isn't experienced enough as a passer to really worry me about him "fooling" the young CB's. I do think our front 7 is going to put a lot of pressure on him.


    What makes you think Cam is more experienced than Wilson as a passer?
    As a starter, Wilson has 4 years of college experience plus 1 year as a pro to Cam's 1 year of College experience and 2 years as a pro.
    And while your pass rush might get pressure on him, he's probably the best player in the league at escaping pressure, never mind the fact that in his last 8 regular season games he posted a passer rating of over 100 in 7 of them. The one game he managed a "paltry" 88 rating? He was pulled one series after halftime because we were 45-0 up.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 6:23 am
  • themunn wrote:What makes you think Cam is more experienced than Wilson as a passer?
    As a starter, Wilson has 4 years of college experience plus 1 year as a pro to Cam's 1 year of College experience and 2 years as a pro.
    And while your pass rush might get pressure on him, he's probably the best player in the league at escaping pressure, never mind the fact that in his last 8 regular season games he posted a passer rating of over 100 in 7 of them. The one game he managed a "paltry" 88 rating? He was pulled one series after halftime because we were 45-0 up.


    I didn't compare Wilson to Cam, I was speaking in respect to Wilson vs NFL defenders who are used to the likes of Matt Ryan, Drew Brees. I doubt his ability to move defenders with his eyes, great ball fakes and body language is where it needs to be to manipulate our D.

    As a passer Wilson is far more polished than Newton.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 6:26 am
  • If Carolina wins, they will be the first team to win a rematch with Wilson. 3-0 so far.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 3:16 pm
  • MysterMatt wrote:I expect a sloppy game, and as much as I like our prospects for the season, this one concerns me. Getting out with a win by a field goal will be just fine by me.

    I agree, with all the Hype and the travel this game worries me. I'm not really sold on the offensive guard situation at this stage of the season either. I'm sweat'n this one out from start to finish!
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:12 pm
  • As much as I hate to say it, I predicted a loss and can see it going poorly for us. This team does still have some proving to do in a few areas, and obviously early road games is one. We weren't good to start the year and I need to be shown that the last half of 2012 wasn't lightning in a bottle.

    Traveling across the country to open the season is difficult for anyone, especially us historically. That's a tough environment to play in, but if we play as fast and hit as hard as the pre-season has shown, that will increase our chances dramatically if our offense isn't tight. I don't expect us to be able to win a boat race yet. If I were a betting man, it'd be Carolina at home with points.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:16 pm
  • I think the outcome will be decided by the officials with confusion over points of emphasis and subjective interpretation.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:01 pm
  • Carolina has been aweful early in the year under Rivera. Now they have Shula as their OC and he was flat out terrible in TB. The biggestconcern is the 10 am start. Other than that, this is a game we should win if we are a serious contender.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:32 pm
  • I do remember RW's 56 yard strike to Tate at the Panther's 12, that got called back with an extra 10 yards because of Giacomini's hold.

    I also remember a 19 yard pass to some TE for a crucial 3rd down conversion that was called back 15 yards because Gio knocked a dude off his feet and out of bounds which drew a personal foul/late hit.

    Penalties happen and those plays never happened because of them, but to say we started slow because 1 man was stinking it up and called back some of our crucial plays until he got benched, is stretching the truth somewhat.
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:34 pm
  • I love the fact that we are opening on the road, 10 am game (1 pm ET actually) and against a team that finished pretty strong last year. I just hope not a repeat of the '05 season opener. Great test!
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Re: Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina
Mon Sep 02, 2013 3:16 am
  • I'm interested in seeing a new OC vs a new DC.
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