Re-Evaluating the Harvin Trade (w/ a T-Jack return)

Pandion Haliaetus

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If the Seahawks sign Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks theoretically only would have traded a 2013 1st rounder + 2014 3rd rounder for Percy Harvin.

Jackson was signed as a free agent from the Vikings (2 yrs, 8 mil), traded to Buffalo in 2012 pre-season for a 7th round pick, that 7th round pick was then traded to the Vikings as part of the Harvin deal.

I know the Seahawks don't recuperate the talent lost in the 7th round pick but the Seahawks had 4 7th round choices in the 2013 draft entering a season where most of the roster would be set from existing players before the draft.

The original talent was Jackson and he is a quality backup QB in this league. His trade was almost necessary if not necessary altogether, the Seahawks needed to dismantle T-Jack's support group in order from Wilson to fully establish control of this team (something that took almost half a season to achieve) and any savings gained helped off-set Flynn's contract.

Getting Jackson back now would be a great move after the necessary excursion ... most likely he'll be cheap, he already knows the system, he already knows the players including new additions like Harvin, Winfield, and Cliff Avril. Jackson also wouldn’t sign a contract unless he knows that he’ll have to compete with Brady Quinn merely as Wilson’s support group rather than competing for a substantial role. However, I wouldn’t scratch off the Scouting Team as wholly unimportant, there is value, and Tarvaris Jackson has quality value to this team.

Again, Jackson’s value comes from his departure to allow Wilson or Flynn to thrive, as well as a small savings if any towards the cap, and the Seahawks obtaining a 7th round pick for a player that was scheduled to become a free agent in 2013.
Meaning the Seahawks could have traded Jackson and just as well pursued his services in 2013. But if the Seahawks had signed Tarvaris Jackson I’m sure it would have diminished a lot of what little value the Seahawks got in return from Flynn. Jackson was retained by the Bills over Fitzpatrick and Thigpen (Buffalo’s 1 and 2 QBs on the DC in 2012) and Seahawks most likely opted out on not pursuing Tarvaris Jackson again to sort of upsell Flynn to the rest of the league.

The moment Jackson becomes a free agent, Seahawks are one of the first teams to come knocking on his door, establishing that Jackson in the least has a consideration of value and the Seahawks know this. Simply, the Seahawks know what they have in Tarvaris on a team that had less support. The Seahawks don’t know what they have in Quinn nor Johnson under a critical microscope. So getting back Jackson after trading his services for a 7th round pick is a win for the Seahawks.

In establishing that value for the audience I can reassess the central idea of this thread about Percy Harvin. In that if the Seahawks sign Jackson its almost as getting Percy Harvin for only a 2013 1st round pick (25th overall) and a 2014 3rd round pick (TBD, however, it is commonly known that a future pick is always valued at a round less in the current year i.e giving up a 2014 2nd rounder would only net you a 2013 3rd Rounder. Another example would have been the Broncos giving up their 2010 1st rounder (Earl Thomas) for the Seahawks 2nd rounder (CB, Alphonso Smith) in 2009. Essentially, Seahawks giving up their 2014 3rd rounder is merely worth a 4th round pick in 2013.

The Vikings took CB, Xavier Rhodes with the 25th pick. Seahawks took WR Chris Harper with their 2013 4th Rounder.
Without the Harvin trade, Seahawks are most likely looking at Cordelle Patterson at #25 (perhaps DeAndre Hopkins) and going WR in round 1, do they still take a WR in round 4? Logically, they acquired Harvin but still drafted Harper, so, I’ll say yes, they would’ve still drafted 2 WRs out of this draft.

So Harvin’s contract aside, (and if the Seahawks sign T-Jack back), Harvin’s trade value ultimately becomes:
Harvin = Patterson/Hopkins + Harper/Patton

Its hard to predict what will become of the 2014 3rd rounder as the future hasn’t taken place and we don’t even know who will be chosen, or who the Seahawks would have chosen with the pick which is why I establish Harper or Patton (however it plays out if the Seahawks didn’t trade for Harvin) as the theoretic 4th round value in compensation as the 2014 3rd Rounder.

The real question to answer now becomes could the Seahawks traded 2013 1st, 4th, and 7th round selections to the Vikings for Percy Harvin, and how much do the Seahawks value Chris Harper to inadvertently tie him to the value that was lost in 2014 3rd rounder. Not really, but thinking about it… Harvin should remain Harvin but better and more grown up as Harvin is merely 25 years old in his 5th season plus now being well paid to contribute and compete. We already know Harvin is worth tremendous value but many believe it isn’t a 1st, 3rd, and 7th compensation on top of a hefty contract.
But if Harper becomes a good to great player in the future plus (T-Jack) Seahawks theoretically would break even on the Harvin in added and weighted value of compensation.

25th pick = Harvin + Contract: Seahawks get one of the best young play-makers in the NFL.

2014 3rd Rounder = Chris Harper in value, If Harper becomes a starter, plus a solid to quality contributor (receiving, blocking, and special teams)… Then losing out on the 2013 3rd Rounder almost means nothing (in value).

2013 7th round pick = Tarvaris Jackson. Seahawks had to get rid of Jackson in order for Wilson or Flynn to take full command of the team. It was a necessary deduction, they would have cut Jackson regardless, so the fact they could pick up an extra pick off a player they signed as a free agent and then use it to acquire a marquee player like Harvin even if it was only a 7th round pick is pretty genius. Getting T-Jack back especially when he has more value to this team than Quinn or Jerrod Johnson almost cancels out the initial trade entirely.

NO ONE would have complained if the Seahawks would have traded their 2013 1st round and 4th round selections for Percy Harvin. A lot of people would have labeled it a steal even with considering his contract.

And simply if the pieces fall into place, i.e. getting T-Jack back but he’ll have to out compete Quinn and Harper becoming a legitimate starter player and solid contributor in the future , the Seahawks essentially get Harvin for the equivalent value for only a 25th pick and a contract. And that’s pretty damn good considering they outbid the 49ers for Harvin.

Furthermore, the real kicker will be this… Harvin most likely will put the Seahawks over the edge, the Seahawks were becoming an offensive powerhouse without him, so he only makes them that much more dangerous, not only that Harvin’s presence and influence will make the Seahawks Defense better by preparing them from quick, devastating players such as Harvin. The same players that burned one of the top defenses in the NFL last season. The Seahawks will be that much better and that much prepared, and it is likely they’ll be one of the last 4 teams standing giving them a 2014 draft position from 28-32. I would bet safely that Schneider will likely trade out of the first in 2014 to recoup that lost 3rd round and lessen the monetary worth of a draft pick by getting out of the 1st round. Realistically, without looking at stipulating values the Harvin trade becomes a 2013 1st rounder, about 20 spots in a trade down, and a mere 7th round pick.

Arguably, if the Seahawks win the Superbowl and Harvin was a contributing factor, who really cares what we gave up.

I kind of rambled on for probably a good thousands words more than I wanted to but there has been relatively little news to write about…so I kind of went on and on and on… (apologies). I just wanted to show and insinuate that compensation give up for Percy Harvin could almost become the Seahawks giving up little or nothing in return just a 1st rounder and a big contract for a player that is one of the most dynamic at what he does and can do in the NFL.
 

QuahHawk

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i fixed it for you
"when the Seahawks win the Superbowl and Harvin was a contributing factor, who really cares what we gave up."
 

kearly

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My guess is that Seattle would have taken Datone Jones at #25. John Schneider admitted after the draft that DT was the only position they felt was a need going into that draft, and Datone Jones would have been at least arguably the best value pick there. He also perfectly fit the kind of profile Seattle really goes for- highly athletic with a good upward trajectory. And he came from the Pac-12.

As far as the Harvin trade, I am waiting until next season is over before I try to judge it too much. I've thought for a while that Seattle really needed that ultra quick slot guy ala Wes Welker, and given Welker's age I think he might be handing over the mantle of the ultimate slot WR to Harvin very soon. The upgrade on special teams was very nice too (Washington was probably near the end of the line). Also, the trade freed up a 3rd running back spot which allowed the team to draft Christine Michael, a move that I am a huge supporter of.

On the other hand, I do feel that the picks plus money was a lot to give up, and if Harvin has another 900 yard season next year it will be hard to avoid feeling like Seattle overpaid. I say this as someone who was a big fan of Erik Bedard as a Mariner, but though he was a terrific pitcher when he suited up, the Mariners did overpay to get him. That's kind of how I feel about the Harvin deal as of this moment, though that could certainly change depending on how next season goes. As of right now, I'd rather have Datone Jones, a future 3rd, a 7th rounder, and all that cap space than Harvin. Heck, the money portion of it might matter more than the draft picks do when you look at the kind of money we'll need to keep our players.

But what's done is done, and it's not a horrible move by any means. Harvin is a terrific player. It's just that the move to get him was a really expensive one that we maybe didn't need to make, and part of why the Seahawks are a great team today in the first place is because John Schneider made hundreds of frugal moves while mostly avoiding the splashy stuff. With so many expensive Seahawks hitting contract time in the next few years, being economical has never been more important. So for that reason I'm uneasy about it, though I'm sure Harvin will thrill all of us as a Seahawk.
 

brettb3

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You mean a 900 yard half season? If Harvin has 900 yards over the first nine games like he did last season, I'll take that right now.
 

FlyingGreg

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Harvin was a great move, but it needs to really "work". We gave him a ton of cash without seeing him in our system, and that cash could have ben directed elsewhere with three mega, mega deals looming (Thomas, Sherman, Wilson).

I loved the deal and think he is going to be spectactular, especially with a real QB unlike he had in Minnehaha. But it certainly cost a lot both in draft capital and salary, so it isn't without risk.

The stark reality is, this team won't look the same in the next few years - if for anything else but the salary cap. We are pretty tight against it now and have a lot of core players coming due for huge deals. We have been fortunate to be getting All Pro and Pro Bowl seasons from players getting paid peanuts (comparitively), but that grace period ends in the near future.

I think the front office knows the time is "now" and pushed their chips all in.
 

kearly

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brettb3":5c0pxs92 said:
You mean a 900 yard half season? If Harvin has 900 yards over the first nine games like he did last season, I'll take that right now.

He was on pace for 120 catches though. Minnesota had zilch in their WR corps other than Harvin. He'd be lucky to see 80 catches here. That's not his fault or anything, but I do think the way the Seahawks run their offense puts a de-emphasis on the vaunted #1 WR. Especially with Wilson, who is so adept at spreading the ball.
 

Treefiddy

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Percy Harvin was in talks for MVP before he went down. All we gotta do is get him the ball
 

Trenchbroom

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If Harvin gets 80 catches, 900 yards in the air, 250 on the ground, is a force as KR and is a direct cause for both Marshawn and Russell Wilson having banner years by giving defenses fits, he will be worth every penny of that steep contract.
 

xCalibur

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My God...what is wrong with you people...What is it about Tjack that made so many go off the deep end. They guy sucks and is not a quality backup. If that where the case he would have stuck somewhere...But nope, he sucked in Minny, sucked in Seattle and couldn't even beat out crappy qb's in buffalo. I love this team, and have for over 30 yrs...bringing back a subpar player like Tjack would be too much to take.. It will never happen, get over it...he is gone
 

bestfightstory

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xCalibur":2s8mtkx6 said:
My God...what is wrong with you people...What is it about Tjack that made so many go off the deep end. They guy sucks and is not a quality backup. If that where the case he would have stuck somewhere...But nope, he sucked in Minny, sucked in Seattle and couldn't even beat out crappy qb's in buffalo. I love this team, and have for over 30 yrs...bringing back a subpar player like Tjack would be too much to take.. It will never happen, get over it...he is gone

Guess you are INCORRECT!

Pete and John must not love the team as much little old you.
 

CANHawk

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xCalibur":mg6zsu0a said:
My God...what is wrong with you people...What is it about Tjack that made so many go off the deep end. They guy sucks and is not a quality backup. If that where the case he would have stuck somewhere...But nope, he sucked in Minny, sucked in Seattle and couldn't even beat out crappy qb's in buffalo. I love this team, and have for over 30 yrs...bringing back a subpar player like Tjack would be too much to take.. It will never happen, get over it...he is gone

I don't agree with this at all. I think Tarvaris is perfectly suited to being a back up. Only problem I ever had with him is all the crazy fanboys that seemed to follow him everywhere who thought he was Warren Moon waiting to happen. They were just silly. Tarvaris isn't a starting caliber quarterback, but he's plenty good enough to keep the machine pointed in the right direction if the main man... needs to take a nap or something.

He's a good dude, a team player, a hard worker and tough as shit. Always room on the team for a guy like that (in a 2nd/3rd string capacity).
 
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Pandion Haliaetus

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Yeah, I'm in the camp that Harvin will likely see limited targets and I would be surprised to see any Seahawks WR surpass 800 yards. Too many weapons with a QB that spreads the ball around in a rush-heavy offense. But I do see several WRs with 5-10 TDs. Scoring wins games

Harvin's influence or his value isn't going to be precedent on his production, I don't think the Seahawks care one bit if Harvin doesn't get the prototypical 1000+ yards, 7+ TDs qualifers you'd want in a #1 guy or #2 guy on some teams.

The importance of Harvin's value:

1. Will Harvin's influence open up things the offense in general? (Without Wilson improvisation, the Seahawks struggled to separate and get open, particularly in the short to intermediate passing game. Harvin's influence in this regard is tremendous, last year, in only 9 games, Harvin had 677 yards on 62 catches/85 targets for a paltry 10.9 yards per catch clip. However, what some people fail to realize is of that 10.9 average, 8.9 of those yards was yards after the catch. Simply, on average Harvin’s staring position after the catch was a mere 2 yards after scrimmage. 10.9 average is enough to get first downs and move the chains... 36 of Harvin’s 62 catches went for first downs… 58% if you will or once every 1.72 catches. Harvin’s influence in the short to intermediate game and what it means for an offense that lacked in this particular area is going to be tremendous

2ndly, in this aspect… is the Harvin influence on Marshawn Lynch. Statistically, Lynch saw more 8-man boxes than any other RB. For Lynch to be as productive as he was especially through all the O-line changes easily makes him the 2nd best RB behind Peterson last year, sorry Alfred Morris. For the same reasons I explain below, Harvin will also open up plenty of opportunity for Lynch to be more productive. No way defenses will be able to handle all of what the Seahawks can put on the table… just too many weapons and at least 3 of them are catastrophic at doing damage after contact in Lynch, Tate, and Harvin)

2. Will Harvin’s influence open up things for other WRs? (This goes without question, Harvin is a talent that needs to be accounted for, as I proved above he can take what little he gets and then use his own ability to be productive. Teams understand this, Harvin is undeniable talent that can strike like lightning and flash away… To control Harvin’s influence teams will likely leave Rice, Tate, Baldwin, Miller and Co. in very favorable, winnable matchups. They are all receivers who don’t necessary excel at gaining separation but effective at winning the ball in one on one situations. Harvin’s influence will open up a lot of opportunity for the Seahawks’ offense that otherwise wouldn’t be there without having the type of player Harvin brings to the table.)

3. What does Harvin’s influence do to the Defense side of things? (Like I theorized in a different thread, there is almost a direct correlation of success going both ways between competition that is Percy Harvin the Ball-Carrier and Antoine Winfield the Defender. Their competition in practice made both players better, Harvin likely kept Winfield young in many ways and the type of explosive player Harvin is probably led to instant success when the Vikings moved Winfield to slot corner. Vice Versa, with Winfield being one of the best run defending and tackling CBs in the game gave Harvin the daily opportunity to transcend into one of the best in the game at becoming slippery, anticipating tackles, and breaking them. Whether you guys can agree with that is up to you, but Harvin’s influence plus Winfield’s guidance plus experience should vastly improve the very few weaknesses Seahawk’s defense had last season particularly against smaller, quicker players (Slot WRs, Smaller RBs) and Nickel Defense. Harvin is a player that will help the defense prepare for the Tavon Austins, Randall Cobbs, Wes Welkers, Danny Amendolas, the Reggie Bush and so forth.

In this aspect, one of the reasons why the Seahawks did draft WR Chris Harper with a 4th round pick is because the 49ers traded for Anquan Boldin. None of the other current Seahawks WRs other than Phil Bates are Boldin-esque. Preparation is in the separation. Win your Division and you’re in the post-season. So while to some Harper looked like a luxury project player, however, in a matter of words, I just realized an important role, immediate purpose. Not just with Boldin, either, but with big, physical, and athletic WRs in general. With Harvin, Harper, and Luke Willson in the mix, the Seahawk’s defense now can prepare for anything this league can throw at them and they’ll be more than ready for it.

4. And the final slice pie of the Harvin influence is Special Teams. Harvin’s job most likely isn’t to be ultra-productive individually but to ensure the Seahawks’ are efficiently productive as possible as an offense. Remember, scoring points not yards is what wins games in the end. On offense, Harvin’s success will be correlated with team success, however, on special teams, Harvin has big shoes to fill as his arrival, led to Leon Washington’s departure. Statistically, Harvin in his limited Return opps, Harvin has been absolutely electrifying, easily one of the best in the NFL in the last 4 years. The real question is can he survive an increased workload. And despite his injury history I believe he can because, he won’t see as many opportunities in our spread offense as he did with the Vikings. His bread and butter statistically will be felt on Special Teams, and he’s certainly a player with the dynamic to “tilt the field” in every way possible.
 
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