how many games should hawks be the favorite in this yr?

Just read interesting little piece off cnnsi which states hawks are favs in 13 games...i think that's about right...what say you? Also, who if any, should they be underdog against?

should be dogs @SF, @Hou, @NYG and @ATL

I'll be more impartial than most...

@ Panthers - Seahawks favored ~ 3
49ers - Seahawks favored by ~3
Jaguars - Seahawks favored by ~13
@ Texans - Texans favored by ~3
@ Colts - Pick 'em
Titans - Seahawks favored by ~10
@ Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~3
@ Rams - Pick 'em
Bucs - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ Falcons - Falcons favored by ~3
Vikings - Seahawks favored by ~7
Saints - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ 49ers - 49ers favored by ~3
@ Giants - Giants favored by ~3
Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~10
Rams - Seahawks favored by ~7

Seahawks favored in 10 games, opponents favored in 4 games, and pick 'em in 2 games.

The only thing that matters in gambling is what line you can get from Largent80's bookie.

NinerBuff":1nngdmit said:

I'll be more impartial than most...

@ Panthers - Seahawks favored ~ 3
49ers - Seahawks favored by ~3
Jaguars - Seahawks favored by ~13
@ Texans - Texans favored by ~3
@ Colts - Pick 'em
Titans - Seahawks favored by ~10
@ Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~3
@ Rams - Pick 'em
Bucs - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ Falcons - Falcons favored by ~3
Vikings - Seahawks favored by ~7
Saints - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ 49ers - 49ers favored by ~3
@ Giants - Giants favored by ~3
Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~10
Rams - Seahawks favored by ~7

Seahawks favored in 10 games, opponents favored in 4 games, and pick 'em in 2 games.

Click to expand...

pretty much agree with this.

First, these are all pretty meaningless as they will change drastically as the season progresses - that being said (assuming I was picking on speculation from today) - there are some logic issues here - for example:

For example - you have Rams +7 @ Seahawks and then Rams 0 vs Seahawks.

No chance those lines co-exist - If the Seahawks are favored at home against a team by 7 they would be favored on the road by at least -3.

For the @ Rams lines and the @ Colts lines you can bet your bottom dollar those lines would move toward the Seahawks - Colts more than Rams. Smart betters would have the Hawks and the line would move.

Conversely, Saints @ Hawks - no way the Hawks are favored by that much. Saints are a team of the masses and you can bet no one would have the same amount of money on the Rams as Saints in the same situation.

Although pointless, this seems like fun so I will post the following lines -

@ Panthers - Seahawks -2.5 but may move toward the Panthers
49ers - Seahawks -3 no movement
Jaguars - Seahawks -9.5 maybe moves toward Hawks
@ Texans - Seahawks +3 maybe moves toward Hawks
@ Colts - Seahawks -1 and probably movement toward the Hawks
Titans - Seahawks -9.5
@ Cardinals - Seahawks -3.5 Seven is too high for a divisional road game
@ Rams - Seahawks -2.5 and may move toward the Rams
Bucs - Seahawks -3.5 - could move either way
@ Falcons - Seahawks +3 but I bet this also moves toward the Hawks
Vikings - Seahawks -4.5 Vikings are good team and will still have AP
Saints - Seahawks -3 Saints are a Vegas team
@ 49ers - Seahawks +3
@ Giants - Seahawks +3
Cardinals - Seahawks -6.5
Rams - Seahawks -5 (Vegas line as per Bill Simmons) - the people will decide this one

NinerBuff":1jmc3ags said:

I'll be more impartial than most...

@ Panthers - Seahawks favored ~ 3
49ers - Seahawks favored by ~3
Jaguars - Seahawks favored by ~13
@ Texans - Texans favored by ~3
@ Colts - Pick 'em
Titans - Seahawks favored by ~10
@ Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~3
@ Rams - Pick 'em
Bucs - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ Falcons - Falcons favored by ~3
Vikings - Seahawks favored by ~7
Saints - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ 49ers - 49ers favored by ~3
@ Giants - Giants favored by ~3
Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~10
Rams - Seahawks favored by ~7

Seahawks favored in 10 games, opponents favored in 4 games, and pick 'em in 2 games.

Click to expand...

Very reasonable.

NinerBuff":2banh6kn said:

I'll be more impartial than most...

@ Panthers - Seahawks favored ~ 3
49ers - Seahawks favored by ~3
Jaguars - Seahawks favored by ~13
@ Texans - Texans favored by ~3
@ Colts - Pick 'em
Titans - Seahawks favored by ~10
@ Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~3
@ Rams - Pick 'em
Bucs - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ Falcons - Falcons favored by ~3
Vikings - Seahawks favored by ~7
Saints - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ 49ers - 49ers favored by ~3
@ Giants - Giants favored by ~3
Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~10
Rams - Seahawks favored by ~7

Seahawks favored in 10 games, opponents favored in 4 games, and pick 'em in 2 games.

Click to expand...

That's not being impartial. Vegas is impartial and has already released opening lines for every game in weeks 1-16 (not week 17 due to uncertainty about teams resting players) and the actual odds are:

@ Panthers - Seahawks favored by 3.5
49ers - Seahawks favored by 2.5
Jaguars - Seahawks favored by 14
@ Texans - Seahawks favored by 1
@ Colts - Seahawks favored by 4
Titans - Seahawks favored by 11
@ Cardinals - Seahawks favored by 6
@ Rams - Seahawks favored by 4
Bucs - Seahawks favored by 7
@ Falcons - pick 'em
Vikings - Seahawks favored by 6
Saints - Seahawks favored by 3.5
@ 49ers - 49ers favored by 2.5
@ Giants - Seahawks favored by 1
Cardinals - Seahawks favored by 8.5
Rams - no line

Obviously we would be favored at home against the Rams. Of course being favored in 14/16 games and underdogs in 1/16 doesn't mean Vegas expects us to go 14-2 or 15-1 because it's unlikely we'll win every game as a small favorite, but @SF is the only game where we opened as an underdog.

TDOTSEAHAWK":et4monl4 said:

First, these are all pretty meaningless as they will change drastically as the season progresses - that being said (assuming I was picking on speculation from today) - there are some logic issues here - for example:

For example - you have Rams +7 @ Seahawks and then Rams 0 vs Seahawks.

No chance those lines co-exist - If the Seahawks are favored at home against a team by 7 they would be favored on the road by at least -3.

For the @ Rams lines and the @ Colts lines you can bet your bottom dollar those lines would move toward the Seahawks - Colts more than Rams. Smart betters would have the Hawks and the line would move.

Conversely, Saints @ Hawks - no way the Hawks are favored by that much. Saints are a team of the masses and you can bet no one would have the same amount of money on the Rams as Saints in the same situation.

Although pointless, this seems like fun so I will post the following lines -

@ Panthers - Seahawks -2.5 but may move toward the Panthers
49ers - Seahawks -3 no movement
Jaguars - Seahawks -9.5 maybe moves toward Hawks
@ Texans - Seahawks +3 maybe moves toward Hawks
@ Colts - Seahawks -1 and probably movement toward the Hawks
Titans - Seahawks -9.5
@ Cardinals - Seahawks -3.5 Seven is too high for a divisional road game
@ Rams - Seahawks -2.5 and may move toward the Rams
Bucs - Seahawks -3.5 - could move either way
@ Falcons - Seahawks +3 but I bet this also moves toward the Hawks
Vikings - Seahawks -4.5 Vikings are good team and will still have AP
Saints - Seahawks -3 Saints are a Vegas team
@ 49ers - Seahawks +3
@ Giants - Seahawks +3
Cardinals - Seahawks -6.5
Rams - Seahawks -5 (Vegas line as per Bill Simmons) - the people will decide this one

Click to expand...

totally valid points...so many variables, so many factors still remain to be seen...who knows what injuries teams will have suffered say by week 6 etc..etc..etc i was just basing it off today..good points

NinerBuff":1b979u3c said:

I'll be more impartial than most...

@ Panthers - Seahawks favored ~ 3
49ers - Seahawks favored by ~3
Jaguars - Seahawks favored by ~13
@ Texans - Texans favored by ~3
@ Colts - Pick 'em
Titans - Seahawks favored by ~10
@ Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~3
@ Rams - Pick 'em
Bucs - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ Falcons - Falcons favored by ~3
Vikings - Seahawks favored by ~7
Saints - Seahawks favored by ~7
@ 49ers - 49ers favored by ~3
@ Giants - Giants favored by ~3
Cardinals - Seahawks favored by ~10
Rams - Seahawks favored by ~7

Seahawks favored in 10 games, opponents favored in 4 games, and pick 'em in 2 games.

Click to expand...

Not bad. Looks reasonable to me.

jewhawk":rfpvcju0 said:

That's not being impartial. Vegas is impartial and has already released opening lines for every game in weeks 1-16 (not week 17 due to uncertainty about teams resting players) and the actual odds are:

@ Panthers - Seahawks favored by 3.5
49ers - Seahawks favored by 2.5
Jaguars - Seahawks favored by 14
@ Texans - Seahawks favored by 1
@ Colts - Seahawks favored by 4
Titans - Seahawks favored by 11
@ Cardinals - Seahawks favored by 6
@ Rams - Seahawks favored by 4
Bucs - Seahawks favored by 7
@ Falcons - pick 'em
Vikings - Seahawks favored by 6
Saints - Seahawks favored by 3.5
@ 49ers - 49ers favored by 2.5
@ Giants - Seahawks favored by 1
Cardinals - Seahawks favored by 8.5
Rams - no line

Obviously we would be favored at home against the Rams. Of course being favored in 14/16 games and underdogs in 1/16 doesn't mean Vegas expects us to go 14-2 or 15-1 because it's unlikely we'll win every game as a small favorite, but @SF is the only game where we opened as an underdog.

Click to expand...

Vegas sets the lines in order to get equal $$ on both sides. My lines were based solely on how I see the teams match up. So, in that mode, I see the Seahawks being the favorites in 10 of the 16 games, being the underdog in 4 of the 16 games, and 2 games being a toss-up. My lines aren't based on trying to get equal money.

The Seahawks are going for the perfect season this year. And right now I challenge anyone to argue they will not go 16-0 (since it's the off-season, and I will never ever agree with you, don't bother).

The Seahawks offense will be an unstoppable force.

The Seahawks defense will be equal parts destruction and desolation.

I love the off season. It's when you can let your expectations run wild.

Go Hawks.

NinerBuff":329fn8qj said:

Vegas sets the lines in order to get equal $$ on both sides. My lines were based solely on how I see the teams match up. So, in that mode, I see the Seahawks being the favorites in 10 of the 16 games, being the underdog in 4 of the 16 games, and 2 games being a toss-up. My lines aren't based on trying to get equal money.

Click to expand...

You're wrong about Vegas. They set the lines to be accurate based on how the teams match up and are very accurate, with every team in the league being near 50% historically ATS. If what you're suggesting were true, you could make a killing in Vegas by always betting on the less popular teams and against the more popular teams, but you can't because the lines are so accurate. Also, based on the lines you suggested, the games where you most underrated the Seahawks were the Giants, Colts, Texans, Falcons and Rams. This suggests you think more people would be willing to bet on the Seahawks than the other teams in those games compared to how you think they would actually perform. But four of those five teams are quality, popular teams that you would expect a lot of people to bet on, especially when they are at home. So inflating the line to encourage people to bet on those teams over the Seahawks wouldn't make sense if you're trying to get equal money on both sides. Really, what's happening is you're either underrating the Seahawks or overrating a handful of teams on our schedule. I actually think it's the latter based on your close-to-accurate assessment of the Sea-SF lines and your lines with some of the scrubs on our schedule.

jewhawk":1rdisbb1 said:

NinerBuff":1rdisbb1 said:

Vegas sets the lines in order to get equal $$ on both sides. My lines were based solely on how I see the teams match up. So, in that mode, I see the Seahawks being the favorites in 10 of the 16 games, being the underdog in 4 of the 16 games, and 2 games being a toss-up. My lines aren't based on trying to get equal money.

Click to expand...

You're wrong about Vegas. They set the lines to be accurate based on how the teams match up and are very accurate, with every team in the league being near 50% historically ATS. If what you're suggesting were true, you could make a killing in Vegas by always betting on the less popular teams and against the more popular teams, but you can't because the lines are so accurate. Also, based on the lines you suggested, the games where you most underrated the Seahawks were the Giants, Colts, Texans, Falcons and Rams. This suggests you think more people would be willing to bet on the Seahawks than the other teams in those games compared to how you think they would actually perform. But four of those five teams are quality, popular teams that you would expect a lot of people to bet on, especially when they are at home. So inflating the line to encourage people to bet on those teams over the Seahawks wouldn't make sense if you're trying to get equal money on both sides. Really, what's happening is you're either underrating the Seahawks or overrating a handful of teams on our schedule. I actually think it's the latter based on your close-to-accurate assessment of the Sea-SF lines and your lines with some of the scrubs on our schedule.

Click to expand...

I agree with most of what you said, but Vegas makes money by setting the line to garner equal (or approximately equal) $$ for both sides, which allows them to profit regardless of the outcome. Now, fan perception does play into the line, as well as previous betting. So the games vs. NYG, IND, HOU, and ATL, generally viewed as quality teams, will affect the line differently than the JAX or TEN games. You are right that Vegas wouldn't want to inflate those home teams, as the betting would be skewed to one side.

That being said, my projections were not based on even $$. They were my over/under based on how I believe the games will go. I see the Colts and Rams as a better team than Vegas does. But generally, our projections are similar.

Overall, I see the Seahawks going 8-0 at home, 4-4 on the road and being in a horse race with the 49ers for the division crown.

jewhawk":13qoaesw said:

You're wrong about Vegas. They set the lines to be accurate based on how the teams match up and are very accurate, with every team in the league being near 50% historically ATS. If what you're suggesting were true, you could make a killing in Vegas by always betting on the less popular teams and against the more popular teams, but you can't because the lines are so accurate. Also, based on the lines you suggested, the games where you most underrated the Seahawks were the Giants, Colts, Texans, Falcons and Rams. This suggests you think more people would be willing to bet on the Seahawks than the other teams in those games compared to how you think they would actually perform. But four of those five teams are quality, popular teams that you would expect a lot of people to bet on, especially when they are at home. So inflating the line to encourage people to bet on those teams over the Seahawks wouldn't make sense if you're trying to get equal money on both sides. Really, what's happening is you're either underrating the Seahawks or overrating a handful of teams on our schedule. I actually think it's the latter based on your close-to-accurate assessment of the Sea-SF lines and your lines with some of the scrubs on our schedule.

Click to expand...

I have to disagree - in an ideal world - Vegas gets 50% of the money on each side and therefore places it's lines accordingly. The lines have much less to do with Vegas correctly predicting the outcome of the game per se compared to getting a 50/50 split of the bets; this is why the line moves when there is heavy money on one side (though it can't move that much as there are bettors who just wait for this).

Bettors, on the other hand, focus their efforts on correctly predicting the outcomes of games.

Conversely, there are three major influences on how bookies set lines - computers, the "wise guys" and the people - whereas major bettors only have access to computers.

Computers will set the initial lines - but then they pay close attention to where the "wise guys" are betting (the best gamblers with a lot of money) and where the people are betting.

With the "wise guys," these days the bookies follow the trends of bettors who win often to ascertain whether they have an edge to make their predictions better - then the bookies with change too. There is a famous better who won a ton of money from Vegas betting on NBA second half games because he had a beat on how the bookies set lines but since the bookies have caught up.

With the people, they check which teams the majority of the small bets are going and these sually go with the most popular teams. In the NFL teams like the Cowboys, Packers and 49ers will always have a slight edge in the points toward them to ensure not too much money is put on them and they win.

At the end of the day remember the Vegas edge is 10% so if there is a greater than 10% differences in betting - Vegas would lose money.

NinerBuff":ab67c740 said:

I agree with most of what you said, but Vegas makes money by setting the line to garner equal (or approximately equal) $$ for both sides, which allows them to profit regardless of the outcome.

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That's not exactly true about Vegas. It's a common misconception that most people have about the lines. While Vegas would like to get even money on both sides of every game, in practice that is impossible. There will be times where for whatever reason, one side gets bet more heavily than the other. And the solution isn't as simple as moving the line. Say two teams open up with one being a 3.5 point favorite and most of the money is being bet on the favorite, the books can't just move the line a couple points to 5.5 to get more money on the underdog because that opens up the possibility of middling. In that case, if the favorite won by exactly 4 or 5 points, the gamblers would win and the house would lose. Line changes happen, but generally it is due either to new information coming in (injuries, weather, etc.) or the books re-evaluating their lines due to known sharps overwhelmingly favoring one side.

Think of it as short-term vs. long-term thinking. It's similar to other gambling in Vegas. You can go to a roulette wheel and make one bet on red getting even odds. Sometimes (18 of 38 times) you'll win that bet and the house will lose money, but over the long-term it favors the house. Sports betting isn't different. If the house always sets accurate lines where the favorite and underdog are each 50% to cover, then long-term they will win against the gamblers who are betting $110 to win $100 on bets that are 50% to win. That remains the case even if more money is wagered on one side than the other in a single game. It's short-term vs. long-term thinking and it's the basis of the whole casino business model. If Vegas sets improper lines, the sharps will pounce on them and the house will lose long-term.

NinerBuff":ab67c740 said:

That being said, my projections were not based on even $$. They were my over/under based on how I believe the games will go. I see the Colts and Rams as a better team than Vegas does. But generally, our projections are similar.

Click to expand...

My point is that Vegas also sets lines based on how they believe the game will go. You also see the Falcons, Texans, and Giants as better teams than Vegas does. Maybe you're right - there are a few teams I think Vegas is over- or under-valuing too - but Vegas is still more impartial compared to you or me and has an amazing track record with its lines.

jewhawk:

Obviously Vegas can't be perfect on even money every time. But that's their goal and how they make money long-term. It seems like we're arguing the same point.

Your point that I seem to value ATL, HOU, and NYG more than Vegas is interesting. Obviously, we'll have to wait and see. Also, the Colts game will be a second consecutive 10am game, so the fact that Vegas still favors the Hawks is curious.

Cant wait for the season! :snack:

TDOTSEAHAWK":3l9vst5e said:

Conversely, there are three major influences on how bookies set lines - computers, the "wise guys" and the people - whereas major bettors only have access to computers.

Computers will set the initial lines - but then they pay close attention to where the "wise guys" are betting (the best gamblers with a lot of money) and where the people are betting.

With the "wise guys," these days the bookies follow the trends of bettors who win often to ascertain whether they have an edge to make their predictions better - then the bookies with change too. There is a famous better who won a ton of money from Vegas betting on NBA second half games because he had a beat on how the bookies set lines but since the bookies have caught up.

With the people, they check which teams the majority of the small bets are going and these usually go with the most popular teams. In the NFL teams like the Cowboys, Packers and 49ers will always have a slight edge in the points toward them to ensure not too much money is put on them and they win.

Click to expand...

You're right about the computers and the sharps (aka "wise guys" as you call them). However, the point is that the sharps mostly have systems similar to the books' computers to figure what they believe the spreads should be, so the books' lines will generally be similar/equal to the sharps. That is why the line moves when the known sharps overwhelmingly bet one side, the house reconsiders and line movement happens.

You're wrong about the people and the popular teams having a slight edge. I can't find the exact numbers right now, but every team - including the Cowboys, 49ers, Packers, and unpopular teams like the Jaguars and Rams - is right around 50% historically ATS. The general public doesn't cause line movement, the sharps do.

TDOTSEAHAWK":3l9vst5e said:

At the end of the day remember the Vegas edge is 10% so if there is a greater than 10% differences in betting - Vegas would lose money.

Click to expand...

See my post above on short-term vs. long-term. The casinos can take a loss one game just like they can take a loss on one roulette spin. Setting accurate lines ensures that the house will win long-term.

NinerBuff":3l9vst5e said:

jewhawk:

Obviously Vegas can't be perfect on even money every time. But that's their goal and how they make money long-term. It seems like we're arguing the same point.

Click to expand...

Their method of guaranteeing money long-term isn't "try to get even money on both sides in every game." Rather, it's "consistently offer wagers that the bettors have a 50% chance to win and offer them 10/11 odds."

Even though they are not favored, I just can't imagine the Hawks losing at Atlanta this year. We all know the Hawks do revenge on a massive level.

Nineteen.