NinerLifer wrote: onanygivensunday wrote: NinerLifer wrote:
Think production differential
from the RB position... not total production from the position.
The way I think... if Lynch can gain 100 yards against a certain opponent, Turbin should be able to gain 75 yards.
The 25 yard differential is the "slight slack".
Ok, I'll go with that.
How do you believe he would do against your first 4 opponents next year, based on their run D?
I'll take a numbers approach.
Seattle averaged 161.2 yd/game running the ball last year.
First 2013 opponent is Carolina on the road, who were 14th in the league for Run D (near the middle of the pack), giving up 110.1 yd/game on average. If Lynch were unavailable, I could still see Seattle accumulating just under their 2012 average... let's say 150 yards in that game.
Second 2013 opponent is the 49ers at home, who were 4th in the league on Run D, holding 2012 opponents to 94.2 yd/game on average last year. I could see the Hawks gaining about 130 yards on the ground in that home game. I imagine that Pete would use Percy in the backfield quite a bit in this game.
Third 2013 opponent is J'Ville at home, who were a dismal 30th in the league in Run D last year, giving up a generous 141.0 yd/game on average. I could see the Hawks putting up 180 or 190 at home against the Jaguars, even without Lynch.
Fourth 2013 opponent is Houston on the road, who were 7th in the league in Run D last year, giving up 97.5 yd/game on average. Without Lynch, I foresee the Hawks only mustering about 100 yd on the ground against the Texans at their place, principally because Brian Cushing should be back at full strength.
All in all, I don't foresee a significant drop-off in the event Marshawn is unable to play in the first four games.