HawkWow wrote:Now that right there is respect. Basically, Vegas is just creating a popularity poll. More money will always come in on SF and NE so they don't have to make the odds any more tempting. We are far from the 3rd most popular team in the country, but Vegas understands the heavier bettors are football savvy, so the fact they have us at 3 really suggests we are the team to beat. I love it.
Edit: I misread Denver's line. We are actually at 4. But that changes little and what I said about us can be applied to (Manning) and the Broncs (who we will defeat in NY).
This is a great post. A lot of people don't understand that sports betting isn't just the odds that the team are going to win, there's a lot more that goes into it than that. That's why good, popular, teams are never smart to bet on because you're never getting your monies worth. This is why you'll find professional (addict
) gamblers will often bet on games and teams you've never heard of.
Thanks for the kind words and you're so right: (most) savvy bettors stay away from the "big names" in big games. Especially prime time games. The books want to get the odds out, for the following week, by Sunday night before the crowds go home. Lefty Rosenthal was the God of this...but even he couldn't get accurate lines out that fast. 15-16 pro games and maybe close to 100 college games. Look and you will find weakness.
There was a time that I had a very real (ugly) gambling addiction. I flew to LV twice a month from Hawaii. Every gambler will tell you he's wins....I think I actually did. I started winning as soon as I realised where the weakness' were. The book has to get those lines out and he knows which games will be most bet on. He concentrates on those (and prime time games).
I studied 40-50 hrs per week on teams like Brown, Yale and Columbia. I created my own lines before I'd look at Vegas'. It's not hard, but it's hard work. There were times that I would place my (large) bet on a team like Lehigh. The book (Caesars) would look at me and say..."you're the only one that has bet this game...what do you know"?. Sometimes my single bet would move the line 7 pts. I didn't always win...but I always felt good about my bet.
Another thing you bettors need to understand is that America loves winners. It's hard for the avg Joe to take the points, so typically, the line is inflated. If you are a big enough bettor, the book will work with you....don't hesitate to ask.
Having your views challenged is a lot more healthy than simply jabbering on with people who think exactly the same way as you.