Are the pundits scared to give us bad draft grades now?

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  • E.C. Laloosh wrote:
    Scottemojo wrote:http://mynorthwest.com/292/2263296/Carroll-Schneider-have-scared-off-the-draft-critics

    My favorite quote is how the rumor is in the NFL right now, the day after the Hawks work out a guy, 7 teams show up to check him out.


    Hard to argue with to a certain extent I suppose but I think the environment that PC and JS have created from an organizational standpoint might have every bit as much to do with how these late picks have performed as anything else.


    I've been arguing this point since we drafted Kam Chancellor. He could have been a spectacular failure on a different team, and it wouldn't have been his fault.

    There is a reason Pete and John value athleticism over all, they value a player from a college perspective, what would this guy be if he had attended Pete Carroll's USC? A 5 star recruit can be a game changer in the NFL but it all depends on what happens between high school and the pros.

    And if they end up not getting the coaching they need to make it to the next level, P & J will draft them, redshirt them for a year (Toomer) and turn them in to All-Pros (Sherman).

    You can't teach athleticism and while it helps to have the college experience at a big school, it isn't necessary if you have the coaching capable of teaching them how to play at the next level. Clay Mathews and Brian Cushing have a lot to be thankful for because if they hadn't learned under Pete and Norton, they might not be making Pro-Bowls and Big Bucks.
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  • Listening to Kiper this year I would say absolutely. Every pick made sense according to him. After the Poe pick he was praising like crazy.
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  • I wish they would get rid of Dukes, Heath Evans, That guy with the big ass ears, Marshall Faulk, the ugly chick, and NFL Redzone guy on NFLN. I'm sure I'm leaving someone out, but all those people make the NFLN almost unwatchable... Oh yeah I forgot entire staff on NFLAM except the chick and Eric Davis.

    On topic, who cares what the "experts" think. If they were that great at their jobs they would be professional scouts. There is a reason they are posting on a website or BSing on tv.
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  • McG wrote:I wish they would get rid of Dukes, Heath Evans, That guy with the big ass ears, Marshall Faulk, the ugly chick, and NFL Redzone guy on NFLN. I'm sure I'm leaving someone out, but all those people make the NFLN almost unwatchable... Oh yeah I forgot entire staff on NFLAM except the chick and Eric Davis.

    On topic, who cares what the "experts" think. If they were that great at their jobs they would be professional scouts. There is a reason they are posting on a website or BSing on tv.


    Ultimately, the grades are worth diddly squat, except to get ticket buying fans jacked up. The very fact that they would hold back on analysis because of the team that took the player shows what they knew to begin with. Or how much faith they actually have in what they thought they knew.

    However, part of me resents being pandered to. For years, every pick Bill Belichick has made on defense has been glossed over because he is Bill, defensive genius. Well, the Patriots D has been kinda sorry for a while now. But the pandering to anything Bill has not stopped. I kinda like being told what I don't want to hear, as long as I think honesty was the objective.

    Also, along with what somebody posted earlier, are they genius picks for Pete and John, or is Pete selecting good athletes and then just coaching them very well? Is it the pick that is good, or is it the system that is making the players? We haven't had enough of Pete's players go elsewhere and fail/succeed to know that for sure.
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  • I'd say it's somewhere around 50/50, Scotte; but as you said, we don't have evidence for it one way or the other, yet.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:I'd say it's somewhere around 50/50, Scotte; but as you said, we don't have evidence for it one way or the other, yet.


    Way to ride the fence as usual, iRoland.
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  • /sigh
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  • amill87 wrote:I'm with ya 100% on this one. I've been saying it pretty much since Baalke took over, he just doesn't impress me much. He seems like an average GM. Not terrible but he's not great either.


    In your opinion what GM other than Schneider has done a better job putting a roster together and working contracts over the past 3-4 years than Baalke?
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  • Disp wrote:
    amill87 wrote:I'm with ya 100% on this one. I've been saying it pretty much since Baalke took over, he just doesn't impress me much. He seems like an average GM. Not terrible but he's not great either.


    In your opinion what GM other than Schneider has done a better job putting a roster together and working contracts over the past 3-4 years than Baalke?


    No offense but much of the core was there before Baalke took over. He was part of it but not the ringmaster. I'm not saying he is average either. I'm just sayin.
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  • CALIHAWK1 wrote:No offense but much of the core was there before Baalke took over. He was part of it but not the ringmaster. I'm not saying he is average either. I'm just sayin.


    And what does that have to do with the roster moves, trades, and signings he's made since being GM?
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  • How many guys in the mid/later rounds (say, round 3 and later) have earned All Pro or Pro Bowl nominations? Serious question, Disp.
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  • Disp wrote:
    CALIHAWK1 wrote:No offense but much of the core was there before Baalke took over. He was part of it but not the ringmaster. I'm not saying he is average either. I'm just sayin.


    And what does that have to do with the roster moves, trades, and signings he's made since being GM?

    He hasn't made any of real importance, that's the point. Not anything bad but not anything that makes you say "wow". He hasn't taken 5th rounders and made them AllPro or a 3rd rounder and come up with a virtual lock elite quarterback or hundred others like that.
    Last edited by MizzouHawkGal on Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:How many guys in the mid/later rounds (say, round 3 and later) have earned All Pro or Pro Bowl nominations? Serious question, Disp.


    Dunno, is Google down for you?

    KCHawkGirl wrote:He hasn't made any of real importance, that's the point. Not anything bad but not anything that makes you say "wow".


    Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, Navorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Colin Kaepernick make me say wow. Fourteen picks heading into the 2013 draft, and 10 going into the 2014 draft before any comp. picks make me say wow.
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  • Disp wrote:Dunno, is Google down for you?


    Sorry, my "Googling 49ers information" button next to my spacebar is, indeed, broken.

    I've got a severe case of Don'tGiveACrap-itis.
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  • Disp wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:How many guys in the mid/later rounds (say, round 3 and later) have earned All Pro or Pro Bowl nominations? Serious question, Disp.


    Dunno, is Google down for you?

    KCHawkGirl wrote:He hasn't made any of real importance, that's the point. Not anything bad but not anything that makes you say "wow".


    Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, Navorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Colin Kaepernick make me say wow. Fourteen picks heading into the 2013 draft, and 10 going into the 2014 draft before any comp. picks make me say wow.

    Nearly every one of them 1st and 2nd rounders correct?
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  • Disp wrote:Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, Navorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Colin Kaepernick make me say wow. Fourteen picks heading into the 2013 draft, and 10 going into the 2014 draft before any comp. picks make me say wow.


    Kaepernick made me say wow until I saw him play in seattle looking not much better than mark sanchez.
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  • I looked it up for you, anyways. The 49ers have exactly one player drafted after the second round that has earned a Pro Bowl or All Pro (1st team) spot from their 2010, 2011, and 2012 drafts. Navorro Bowman. In fact, none of their 2nd-round picks during that time have earned either one, too.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... _draft.htm
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... _draft.htm
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... _draft.htm

    The Seahawks, on the other hand, have drafted two after the first two rounds of the draft in the past three years.. Three, if you count Wilson; but he wasn't 1st-team Pro Bowl.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... _draft.htm
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... _draft.htm
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/t ... _draft.htm

    I'm not calling Balke a bad or even average GM, from what I can tell I think he's good; but show me another GM that has drafted so many starters that have performed on a top unit at a high level. Schneider, at this point, is making a name for himself as standing alone atop the NFL drafting pyramid. This 4th draft class of his will help show whether that's warranted, or not; but as many have pointed out, we were lambasted pretty badly for last year's draft; and look how that turned out, lol. Even ignoring Wilson, it was a very successful draft for us. Wagner and Wilson both should have gotten defensive/offensive rookie of the year. Kuechly was behind Wagner in virtually all categories except tackles, and Wagner got his on an elite defense, he didn't have the benefit of picking up the slack of mediocre players around him like Kuechly did.
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  • Disp wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:How many guys in the mid/later rounds (say, round 3 and later) have earned All Pro or Pro Bowl nominations? Serious question, Disp.


    Dunno, is Google down for you?


    Classic. :roll:

    Dunno, is the logout button down for you? Dude, you come in pounding your chest, you can't just weasel out with the 'google it yourself' line.


    Anyways, back on topic.

    I found this article, gives a recap of some draft grades from last year, pretty harsh. In retrospect they look pretty silly now. Some embarrassed writers out there. :oops:

    http://www.mattmcgee.com/what-nfl-exper ... 012-draft/
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  • Baalke is a damn good GM. Good enough that I think the media gives him a pass on headscratchers too. Like Jenkins.

    But the smartest move Baalke ever made did not involve a player, it was hiring Harbaugh.
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  • Can't disagree that Baalke is a very good GM or that his best move was hiring Harbaugh.
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  • twisted_steel2 wrote:
    Disp wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:How many guys in the mid/later rounds (say, round 3 and later) have earned All Pro or Pro Bowl nominations? Serious question, Disp.


    Dunno, is Google down for you?


    Classic. :roll:

    Dunno, is the logout button down for you? Dude, you come in pounding your chest, you can't just weasel out with the 'google it yourself' line.


    No, I'm still here, I'm just incognito. I'm not comparing Schneider and Baalke. I asked who, other than Schneider in your fan base's eyes, has done a better job at GM over the past few years. I brought it up because Baalke has been exceptional, yet some of you seem to think he's a middle of the road GM. You guys are the ones pounding your chests.

    I asked a legitimate question that didn't have anything to do with the Seahawks at all and you guys got all defensive.
    Last edited by Disp on Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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  • I love Harbaugh, the dude is so fun to hate and make fun of! It was a great hire!!

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  • That Gif is priceless. :D
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  • Disp wrote:
    Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, Navorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Colin Kaepernick make me say wow. Fourteen picks heading into the 2013 draft, and 10 going into the 2014 draft before any comp. picks make me say wow.


    That's a good haul. The future picks is equally impressive.

    Even though he wasn't named GM until 2011, he in essence ran the draft in 2010 as the VP of player personnel.

    While I think his day 3 drafting acumen pretty much sucks, he's been equally successful to Schneider in day 1 and two. He's also shown to be a more shrewd trader/negotiator than Schneider has been. Baalke has been the best in the business at 'winning' his trades in terms of trade value. He gets more for picks he gives up and he gives less to move up. Seattle tends to give away draft pick value in general but doesn't suffer for it because those throw away picks to other GMs John can turn to gold.

    I like Schneider's ability to get good players late better than Baalke. I like Baalke's ability to put the screws on his trading partners and wring extra value. I also very much like his ability to parlay today's draft value into better value the following year. I wish we were better at getting day 2 selections in the following year rather than 5th/6th round picks in the current year.

    Baalke has just shown to be better at getting more out of his deals. And he doesn't seem to lack for willing trade partners. John (and I'd have to naturally put Pete in with this), develops players better.

    Seattle could learn several tricks from our rivals down south. They are set up to roll picks over year to year and perpetually keep 4-5 picks in the top 3 rounds. I could only imagine what Seattle could do by adding future 2nd/3rd round picks while adding 5th/6th round picks in the current year. Seattle's roster is such, that we really should be looking to lock in a perpetual churn of picks. After a two year cycle, you could indefinitely keep a first, second and third round pick in a current year, while adding 2-4 early day 3 picks.

    It's a draft version of 'Win Forever'. You are always flush with a couple extra day 1/2 picks you can trade. Teams generally overpay for those picks. Particularly if the big expense is in next year's draft ledger.
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  • Disp wrote:
    amill87 wrote:I'm with ya 100% on this one. I've been saying it pretty much since Baalke took over, he just doesn't impress me much. He seems like an average GM. Not terrible but he's not great either.


    In your opinion what GM other than Schneider has done a better job putting a roster together and working contracts over the past 3-4 years than Baalke?


    Two starters from his first draft without McLoughan's draft board set up....hmmmm But the following draft for Baalke was AWESOME!!! He actually had ONE rookie play some snaps.... WAY TO GO BAALKE!!!
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  • Disp wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:How many guys in the mid/later rounds (say, round 3 and later) have earned All Pro or Pro Bowl nominations? Serious question, Disp.


    Dunno, is Google down for you?

    KCHawkGirl wrote:He hasn't made any of real importance, that's the point. Not anything bad but not anything that makes you say "wow".


    Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, Navorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Colin Kaepernick make me say wow. Fourteen picks heading into the 2013 draft, and 10 going into the 2014 draft before any comp. picks make me say wow.


    Smith and Kaepernick are the only two starters Baalke has drafted without McLoughan's help. Plus the one player drafted last year that played several snaps.
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  • Disp wrote:No, I'm still here, I'm just incognito. I'm not comparing Schneider and Baalke. I asked who, other than Schneider in your fan base's eyes, has done a better job at GM over the past few years. I brought it up because Baalke has been exceptional, yet some of you seem to think he's a middle of the road GM. You guys are the ones pounding your chests.

    I asked a legitimate question that didn't have anything to do with the Seahawks at all and you guys got all defensive.

    So, I give you a legit and true response about Baalke, one you can't possibly deny, and you continue to thump the SeaHawks don't respect my guy drum? Puhleeze. I think you want to feel persecuted. Baalke is a great GM and his best move was hiring Harbaugh. Right? Or is your inferiority complex demanding you feel like all Hawk fans must disrespect your boy?
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  • Disp wrote:
    amill87 wrote:I'm with ya 100% on this one. I've been saying it pretty much since Baalke took over, he just doesn't impress me much. He seems like an average GM. Not terrible but he's not great either.


    In your opinion what GM other than Schneider has done a better job putting a roster together and working contracts over the past 3-4 years than Baalke?


    Ozzie Newsome, Mike Brown, Rick Smith, Jerry Reese (who btw has 2 rings in 4 years), and Les Snead just to name a few.

    As for the whole "well he got the Niner's a bunch of draft picks!"....big deal. The amount of draft picks you get doesn't mean anything unless you hit on them,

    And BTW, between the 2010 to 2012 draft, the Niners drafted 25 players. 5 of them are starters. That doesn't wow me. It's not bad but it's not great either
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  • amill87 wrote:And BTW, between the 2010 to 2012 draft, the Niners drafted 25 players. 5 of them are starters. That doesn't wow me. It's not bad but it's not great either


    I don't think that's a fair argument to use though, as they had so much talent on the team already that it's going to be a situation like the one we're now in, where no draft picks are likely to be starters, and I think that's where Schneider is taking a better direction.

    Rather than trade players and picks and accumulate several picks in the top 3 rounds where you'll pick players who may ultimately be good players but not starters for a few years, he traded away our top pick and some others to pick up one of the best players in the league. That's an expensive habit, but it also means not paying 1st round rookie salaries and picking up potential starters of the future at bargain 5th/6th/7th round salaries.

    Baalke hit 2011 out of the park with his first 3 picks and picking up Bruce Miller (but not great apart from that) and 2013 looks like he's done a good job too (but it's too early to tell), but 2012 was a pretty bad draft - with the entire class managing to play a part in 6 games between them.

    In 3 drafts (before 2013) with the Seahawks Schneider has made 28 picks, and 22 of those players are still with the team (though I expect a few will be cut to make room for some 2013 guys), almost of whom have had significant playing time. In the process has built inarguably one of the strongest rosters across the board in the entire league - to such the extent that he could afford to pick a 3rd RB with his first pick in 2013 and nobody has criticised him for not filling a position of need... because there aren't any.

    As it appears, Baalke had his best draft in 2010, followed by 2011 and then 2012. Schneider's best was 2012, and 2011-10 should be tied (2010 brought Earl Thomas and Russell Okung by virtue of two top-15 picks, set up by the previous FO, but 2011 brought Sherman and KJ Wright at absolute bargain prices).

    In that regard it looks like one GM is getting better every year and the other getting worse (although I'll concede I thought the 49ers had a very good 2013 draft)
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  • The Niners systems, or at least their approach to their systems, are much less rookie friendly than ours are. To accurately gauge their draft success based on the number of starters they produce, we'd have to adjust our scope of measurement to be broader because their learning curve is presumably steeper. That or we're much better at quickly coaching our new faces up than they are which is only remotely a slight to their GM. It's also a slight I would imagine their fan-base is more than okay with at the moment.
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  • [quote="themunn"].

    In 3 drafts (before 2013) with the Seahawks Schneider has made 28 picks, and 22 of those players are still with the team (though I expect a few will be cut to make room for some 2013 guys), almost of whom have had significant playing time. In the process has built inarguably one of the strongest rosters across the board in the entire league - to such the extent that he could afford to pick a 3rd RB with his first pick in 2013 and nobody has criticised him for not filling a position of need... because there aren't any.

    quote]

    When comparing GMs around the league, this point can't be emphasized enough. Schneider built one of the youngest, athletic, talented rosters in the league from scratch. We're only in his fourth offseason, and we're already stacking for projected depth. He built the equivalent of the 90's Cowboys with relatively light draft capital (i.e., it wasn't built from top-10 first rounders aside from Okung).
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  • amill87 wrote:And BTW, between the 2010 to 2012 draft, the Niners drafted 25 players. 5 of them are starters. That doesn't wow me. It's not bad but it's not great either


    Starters:

    2011:

    Smith
    Kaepernick
    Miller

    3 pro bowls between them and an All Pro

    2010:

    Davis
    Iupati
    Bowman

    3 pro bowls. 3 All Pro nods

    6 starters, 6 pro bowls. 4 AP distinctions. Even despite the 2012 mulligan, that's incredibly impressive over 3 years.

    Comparatively, we've added 11 starters. But this team was bereft of talent. Some of those starters are likely to be replaced in the next year or two as they aren't real quality starters. We've also not had the success that the Niners have had over that span. So the lack of all pro distinctions is understandable.

    Their drafting under Baalke is inconsistent. They've had issues getting good players past the early 2nd round. Bowman is clearly the outlier. Miller is -- well he's a fullback. And even a good fullback is just not something you rest your laurels on as a personnel guy. Baalke has hit significantly on his early picks. This year will be the 2nd consecutive year they've picked late in the rounds. And it's reasonable to think that SF will be saddled with low draft capital for the medium term. Thus far, their record without having high draft picks is poor. This draft will probably not resolve the inconsistency label -- it really can only confirm the poor results of 2012.

    SF is approaching the precipice. They have to find a quality replacement for Justin Smith and Frank Gore. They also are going to have to acquire quality depth to spell some of the players hitting the wrong side of 30 (Asomugha, Goodwin, Boldin and Rogers). They also have several approaching the 30 mark (Brooks, Davis and Staley)

    It's going to be increasingly difficult for SF to maintain quality, if they remain reliant on 1st and 2nd round picks. Particularly top half of the draft picks. This is a big year for them. They have to show they can get significant quality outside the top 15 overall.
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  • twisted_steel2 wrote:I love Harbaugh, the dude is so fun to hate and make fun of! It was a great hire!!

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    What is he, 3 years old?
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  • Attyla the Hawk wrote:
    amill87 wrote:And BTW, between the 2010 to 2012 draft, the Niners drafted 25 players. 5 of them are starters. That doesn't wow me. It's not bad but it's not great either


    Their drafting under Baalke is inconsistent. They've had issues getting good players past the early 2nd round. Bowman is clearly the outlier. Miller is -- well he's a fullback. And even a good fullback is just not something you rest your laurels on as a personnel guy. Baalke has hit significantly on his early picks. This year will be the 2nd consecutive year they've picked late in the rounds. And it's reasonable to think that SF will be saddled with low draft capital for the medium term. Thus far, their record without having high draft picks is poor. This draft will probably not resolve the inconsistency label -- it really can only confirm the poor results of 2012.

    SF is approaching the precipice. They have to find a quality replacement for Justin Smith and Frank Gore. They also are going to have to acquire quality depth to spell some of the players hitting the wrong side of 30 (Asomugha, Goodwin, Boldin and Rogers). They also have several approaching the 30 mark (Brooks, Davis and Staley)

    It's going to be increasingly difficult for SF to maintain quality, if they remain reliant on 1st and 2nd round picks. Particularly top half of the draft picks. This is a big year for them. They have to show they can get significant quality outside the top 15 overall.


    Good catch on Miller. I forgot about him cause well....he's a full back.

    Bowman is a great pick for him and he deserves kudos there but even Ruskell hit on an all pro player in Max Unger. Than you got a starting full back, who is pretty good. Than three players in the the top 17, two of which are all pro (although it is debatable how good Smith is when Justin Smith is out, elite players don't need other players to make them elite but I digress). And finally Kaep. I know it'll sound hypocritical but I think the story of how good he is is still yet to be written.

    So just like you said, Baalke has been pretty good at the top half of the first round, half his starting players came from there. By definition, he appears average. He isn't like the bad GMs who do terrible in the first round and he isn't like the greats who do great later in the draft. He hits on the players that are supposed to hit.
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  • Scottemojo wrote:
    Disp wrote:No, I'm still here, I'm just incognito. I'm not comparing Schneider and Baalke. I asked who, other than Schneider in your fan base's eyes, has done a better job at GM over the past few years. I brought it up because Baalke has been exceptional, yet some of you seem to think he's a middle of the road GM. You guys are the ones pounding your chests.

    I asked a legitimate question that didn't have anything to do with the Seahawks at all and you guys got all defensive.

    So, I give you a legit and true response about Baalke, one you can't possibly deny, and you continue to thump the SeaHawks don't respect my guy drum? Puhleeze. I think you want to feel persecuted. Baalke is a great GM and his best move was hiring Harbaugh. Right? Or is your inferiority complex demanding you feel like all Hawk fans must disrespect your boy?


    Radish asked me to stop posting in the thread because it was stirring stuff up, so I did. I don't think anyone would argue that his best move was hiring Harbaugh, just like the Patriots hiring Belichick was their franchise's best move.
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