I can't remember if I originally saw this posted on this site, or if I just saw it browsing YouTube one day.... but I thought it'd make for a nice offseason thread, with the 2013 season quickly approaching.
I remember watching throughout the season and noticing that MANY of Russell Wilson's interceptions were either not his fault at all, or were thrown in situations where he was just throwing the ball up (end of half, etc). A lot of people (that don't know the details) will point out that Russell Wilson had twice as many INTs as RGIII, but they just don't understand that many of the balls thrown weren't his fault.
So here is a video showing all of Wilson's INTs from the 2012 season:
Interception by chronological order (at least chronological in video):
1) Cardinals- Can't really fault him for this one. Just tossing it up at the end of the half. Could have been a better throw I suppose, but still... 2) Rams- Baldwin has the ball in his hands, and the ball comes out, and it is picked off. Not Wilson's fault. 3) Rams- Wilson is hit from behind as the ball comes out, causing it to be an ugly wobble of a throw. Should not be entirely faulted for this one IMO. 4) Rams- McCoy slips on the turf. Ball looked to be accurate and on the way to a completion otherwise. Not Wilson's fault. 5) Carolina- Lynch catches the ball, bobbles it, and it is picked. Again, not Wilson's fault. 6) Carolina- This is one of the few that is Wilson's fault. Threw it behind McCoy, and was picked off. 7) San Francisco- This was his fault as well. Threw into double coverage deep to Braylon. Picked. 8] Detroit- Deep to Sidney. An accurate throw, would have been a great catch by Sidney, but unfortunately a Lions defender made a good play on the ball. 9) Arizona- Golden Tate tripped so was unable to get a hand on the ball to prevent Peterson from making a good play on the ball. Could go either way. 10) San Francisco- Pretty catchable ball thrown to Turbin. Ball was batted up like a tip drill and then picked off.
So out of all his INTs, I would say only three were legitimately Wilson's fault because of bad throws (1 @ Carolina, 1 @ San Fran, 1 @ Detroit). He gets a pass @ Arizona because he was just throwing it up @ the end of the half, but it's still an interception. At MOST, I think Wilson is responsible for 4 of his interceptions, if you include the Arizona one. This would give him less interceptions than RGIII, vaulting his QB rating and likely ending the debate about who the better quarterback was (by many of the talking heads), statistically, for the season.
I'd be interested in seeing the same statistics (INTs by fault) for each starting NFL quarterback, similarly.
JSeahawks wrote:I bet Russell would tell you they were all his fault.
Yep. Even though that's clearly not the case.
And you missed one at the end, the hail Mary to end the playoff run at the Falcons. Again, not his fault, but not NOT his fault. It's a hail Mary. Sometimes you get the Taterception, but mostly you get that.
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I understand where you coming from, but remember ... there were passes that SHOULD have been intercepted but weren't ... So, he got lucky a few times as well. I watched RW for 3 years here at NC State, the guy just doesn't turn the ball over. It is simply amazing how he does it. At some point, he went 320+ consecutive passes in college without an INT. I have no doubt in my mind, he will go on such a tear during his NFL Career. This season he threw a total of 400 passes. So imagine a guy going a whole season throwing less than 4 ints ... ridoncoulous ... Yesterday Payton Manning, Eli Manning were here at Duke U. throwing to Wes Walker and Jose Cruz.
joeseahawks wrote:Yesterday Payton Manning, Eli Manning were here at Duke U. throwing to Wes Walker and Jose Cruz.
Hahah off topic? "With the additions of Avril and Bennett or pass rush will be better. Oh I saw Troy Aikman and Joe Buck here at Pike Place this morning" sorry, I just got a good laugh or that, maybe I missed something though
As stated above, sure many of those weren't his fault directly or completely, however he had a few other throughout the year that could have been INT's, but those are obviously assumptions. Either way you look at it he had a phenominal year taking care of the ball (Contrast with Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez here). I'm confident he will only improve, and by doing so well make us all that much more ecstatic to have him as our QB.
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On Wilson's missed throws the one important takeaway I get is that he's just unwilling to force things and would rather throw a ball wide and hope the receiver can make a play than he is trying to fit it too tight and getting it picked off.
Also I wonder how much of that has to do with having to share offseason reps 3 ways? I think once he has a full offseason to work with his receivers they will have a much better understanding of timing. Lets not forget how much the new CBA limited practices - I think we would all probably be shocked to find out exactly how few balls he threw outside of games to each individual reciever over the course of the entire offseason/season last year. Each receiver runs different, has varying speed, and different break on the ball, length, etc. . . thats not something you just know whether you're peyton manning or otherwise until you actually repetitiously throw balls to the same guys over and over again.
Likewise, having an offseason should help the audibles. However, not technically audibles, one of wilson's biggest detractors hugh millen was also quick to point out that between wilson and unger, they did a really good job at checking and changing protections, which is a similar test of awareness and understanding. Audibles are just something you need time with.
It's been said 900 times here but I can't way to see what Wilson will do with an offseason as the clear cut franchise QB.
A lot more than 3 are his fault. The Detroit one he needs to read that safety.
The Arizona int where Jenkins hit his arm is his fault; he drifted left right into the pressure. Pocket awareness is something you can control.
The Peterson INT was also his fault. It was a hell of a comeback throw, but both Tate and Peterson had equal chance to come back for it. You don't really need to make that throw, and I'm sure Russ would point that out.
The SF INT by Willis that Turbin dropped is also on Russ. Sure, Turbin could've caught it, but you don't throw a screen pass to a RB and make his either jump for it or catch it full extension. Even if he does catch it, he doesn't in stride and the play is a loss.
I'm in the camp that I think Wilson will be better this year with full reps with his WR's. He's also a film room freak and I think he's already working on how to improve.
Another positive that I haven't seen anyone else mention is the fact that our receiver core will be much more settled this year. Of the very limited number of reps he got last TC he spent many of them throwing to guys like TO and co who didn't make the team. I know there will still be camp fodder this year, but to a much lesser extent. He'll be able to throw a lot of balls to the guys he'll be throwing to on a Sunday... which makes me a happy boy indeed!
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It's really hard to tell that kind of thing from a youtube video. We don't know if the receivers were where they were supposed to be, plus it can be difficult to decipher things like OL mistakes that might have forced Russell into a throw he wouldn't have otherwise made (I know some can decipher that kind of thing, I can't).
joeseahawks wrote:I understand where you coming from, but remember ... there were passes that SHOULD have been intercepted but weren't ... So, he got lucky a few times as well. I watched RW for 3 years here at NC State, the guy just doesn't turn the ball over. It is simply amazing how he does it. At some point, he went 320+ consecutive passes in college without an INT. I have no doubt in my mind, he will go on such a tear during his NFL Career. This season he threw a total of 400 passes. So imagine a guy going a whole season throwing less than 4 ints ... ridoncoulous ... Yesterday Payton Manning, Eli Manning were here at Duke U. throwing to Wes Walker and Jose Cruz.
Ehh, I'm not that impressed with interception-free streaks. Any quarterback who doesn't take any risks can build up similar streaks, and Wilson's streak was indeed early on in his time on NC St., when his coaches told him to be conservative. What would impress more is if that streak occurred with no drop off in TD percentage, accuracy or YPA. Wilson's completion percentage was quite low that year, so I guess he must've thrown it away a lot.
As for near-interceptions, Football Outsiders had an article about it just this week, here. It doesn't include receivers slipping, so the last interception at St. Louis still counts, but it's pretty accurate otherwise.