pinksheets wrote:I've always thought of sophomore slumps as defenses catching up to special athletes that defenses and coaches simply hadn't seen before or weren't prepared for or decent rookie quarterbacks who benefit from other aspects of their offense or coaching that caused opposing defenses to focus elsewhere. A lot of guys can coast in on their initial abilities, being something new and different, not as many can adapt.
I don't see that as being the case with Russell. He runs on his football IQ, his ability to read defenses, and his preparation just as much as his athleticism. You can't say that about many QBs who break out in their first year. I think Russell and Luck are the only 2 guys I'd be so confident as to bet money not dropping off or struggling a bit more following their breakout year.
Aros wrote:volsunghawk wrote:Peyton Manning.
They had legendary work ethics, too. And while they didn't suffer sophomore slumps, they had down years later in their careers (at least, compared to their own excellence).
I think the reason you see "sophomore slumps" is that teams catch up to special rookies eventually - usually after a season when opponents have had more time to study them and really work on plans to counter their skills. It happens to everyone. The key is how those sophomore players respond to the inevitable down games. Sophomore players tend to still have a bit of immaturity, and allow themselves to get in a funk or press too hard. Wilson should have the maturity to counter that. But nothing is guaranteed. Not even for Wilson.
Whatever buzz kill.
Personally I think you are wrong but we shall all see soon enough.
SalishHawkFan wrote:Sophomore slump is not our real worry. The odds of a QB staying healthy all season long is 4-1 against. Wilson did it last season. It's extremely unlikely that he'll not miss any games this year.
volsunghawk wrote:SalishHawkFan wrote:Sophomore slump is not our real worry. The odds of a QB staying healthy all season long is 4-1 against. Wilson did it last season. It's extremely unlikely that he'll not miss any games this year.
Out of curiosity, where did you get the 4-1 odds that a QB won't stay healthy all season long? Seems to me that at least half the league's teams last season had starting QBs who played all 16 games.
Aros wrote:Tech Worlds wrote:What if he does have a slump and it appears as if defenses have figured him out?
What ya all gonna do then?
Punch you in the nuts.
WestcoastSteve wrote:The reason I don't see him slumping is because he has even more weapons than he had last year.
jewhawk wrote:The whole idea of a sophomore slump is overblown and based on a players' performance compared to the perceived expectation of what he should do. A rookie is expected to play at a C level but actually plays at a B level, generating a ton of hype about how great he was. Then everyone assumes he will progress and play at an A level in his second year, but instead he plays at a B+ level so he is considered a disappointment despite being better than he was as a rookie.
Consider these two QBs:
Player A: 6.24 ANY/A, 7.8 Y/A, 0.16 EPA/P, 84.5 Rating, 3.3 INT%, 404 DYAR, 0.8% DVOA; 706 rush yards, 5.6 rush Y/A
Player B: 6.65 ANY/A, 8.0 Y/A, 0.21 EPA/P, 86.2 Rating, 2.5 INT%, 422 DYAR, 2.0% DVOA; 741 rush yards, 5.8 rush Y/A
Player A is rookie Cam Newton; Player B is second year Cam Newton. He is the most recent poster child of sophomore slumps despite being better in his second year than in his rookie year.
It's possible that Wilson will be worse in his second year than he was as a rookie, but it's unlikely. Most players are better in their second years than they were as rookies.