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 Post subject: Re: Would anything less than an 8-0 home record be disappointing
 Post Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:49 pm 
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bestfightstory wrote:
FreshlySnipes wrote:
no I would be ok with a superbowl.



Hey, Snipes, did you finish your research project?

Hope to get the info from the court sometime this week

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 Post subject: Re: Would anything less than an 8-0 home record be disappointing
 Post Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 5:44 am 
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Going back to two years ago,how long is the current home winning streak?I am wondering if we are close to a club record?


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 Post subject: Re: Would anything less than an 8-0 home record be disappointing
 Post Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 5:56 am 
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Looking back,we lost our last home game of the previous season,so the streak stands at 8.


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 Post subject: Re: Would anything less than an 8-0 home record be disappointing
 Post Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2013 6:16 pm 
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jewhawk wrote:
The people saying 8-0 at home should be expected are drastically underestimating the variance of NFL games. If we are 90% to win each home game, we would be less than 50% to go 8-0 in those games. And 90% is a ridiculous over-estimation for how likely we are to win each game. A 90% favorite to win translates to a 17 point favorite in Vegas which is incredibly rare. From 2000 to 2011, there were a total of 13 NFL games where one team was favored by 17 or more. If you say we are 75% to win (translates to 8.5 point favorites) the 49ers and Saints games and 90% to win the others, we would be less than 30% to go 8-0 at home. If you say we are on average 80% to win each home game (translates to 10.5 point favorites), we would be less than 17% to go 8-0 at home.

Alright Spock! You convinced me. Full warp speed, this teams going undefeated in 2013!!!!!!

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