Kearly's offseason preview

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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Tue Jan 22, 2013 3:14 pm
  • Hawkscanner wrote:
    drrew wrote:
    Hawkscanner wrote:... Jared Cook is another (who I believe could be had for fairly low lost) that really intrigues me as well.

    Jared Cook is likely to be franchised by TEN. Not sure why you'd think he could be had at a 'fairly low cost' but it's just not happening.

    You're right, I probably shot my mouth off with that one. Still, I'd stand by my contention that Cook getting franchised isn't necessarily a slam dunk. He caught 44 passes for 523 Yards and 4 TD's this season. That's good for a TE, but it's not like he set the world on fire or anything. The Titans have $19.4 Million in available Cap Space this season, and the Titans COULD afford to Franchise him if they wish ... but the question that I'd be asking myself if I were their GM is, "Is Cook truly worth it?" Here are the top TE salaries in the NFL ...

    Jason Witten, Dallas: $7.4 million/yr, $18.5 million guaranteed
    Vernon Davis, San Francisco: $7.35 million/yr, $23 million guaranteed
    Antonio Gates, San Diego: $7.235 million, $20.4 million guaranteed
    Jermichael Finley, Green Bay: $7 million, $1 million guaranteed
    Rob Gronkowski, New England: $6.9 million, $18 million guaranteed

    So, Franchising Cook basically means that he would be earning around $7 million/season. Is he truly worth that? I'm not certain that I would place him in the category of the other Tight Ends I have listed there. Therefore, I'm not sure he gets Franchised or not.

    So, I have been watching Jared Cook quite a bit, and he is more talent than skill. Big caveat, Tennessee is a disaster zone on offense. Chris Palmer was running damn near the run and shoot down there, Cook was almost never off tackle. Cook is a fast guy who rarely gives his QB a good target, and the next time Cook just sits in a zone will be the first. He blocks like a wide receiver, runs routes like a wide receiver, and to my eye is a finesse player.

    I don't think the market for him will be as big as it would first seem. Cook wants out of Titsville, I know that. After Palmer got fired in November, the Titans started doing a lot more two tight end sets off the tackles, and when Cook has to play in the traffic he looks out of place.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Tue Jan 22, 2013 4:03 pm
  • Great review- insightful.

    I hope we look at trading an Okafor/Hunt type and signing a DT perhaps Bryant, Starks, or Melton. This is a terrible DT class for what we're looking for, so I'd rather look to UFA for that one position.

    I've always like DRC, and long term think he fits our mold rather than a PED Browner.

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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:58 pm
  • There's one more name that I'd like to add to Kearly's list of possible FA Targets that the Hawks could seriously look at this offseason. I saw someone yesterday mention the name William Hayes ... and he's frankly a guy that I've personally been intrigued by for awhile now. He was originally drafted in the 4th Round back in 2008 by the Titans ... was signed by the Rams this past offseason to a 1 year deal ... and he had a career year with the Rams (7 Sacks and 7 Tackles for Loss). He is once again a UFA. For a DE, he has good size (6'3" 272 Pounds) and extremely impressive speed for a big man (he's been clocked at 4.59 in the 40). He's 27 years old (will turn 28 in May) and one reason that he's never really broken out prior to this year is that he's played 2nd fiddle to some fairly talented DE's (like Jason Babin and Jevon Kearse) -- i.e. he's had a lot of competition for playing time.

    And I'm not the only one high on William Hayes. Ben Stockwell of Pro Football Focus ran an article back in June in which he called Hayes a "secret superstar". His forte has always been against the run and PFF ranked him the 9th Best DE in the league in terms of stopping it ... but obviously he added to his resume last year when given more playing time.

    Hayes only made $900,000 last season, so if John Schneider is truly looking for bargain basement options (which he undoubtedly is) ... I submit that he is an excellent candidate (to put in the rotation) that probably won't break the bank.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:18 pm
  • If Gonzalez comes back, I am sure the Falcons will do a full court press to get him back with them. I doubt Wilson's praise was calculated other than he is sure to praise the prime time players in the league. Nothing more and nothing less. I know it reads better to have the whole thing be some master plan. Maybe it is. I doubt it though. And I sincerely doubt Gonzalez would sign here to play behind Miller.

    Either way, I appreciate the effort it takes to produce these type of posts and the discussions that they generate. Still not feeling the Osi move but others seem to think it has value so I would support it if the FO decided to take this path.

    BTW, not sure where I read it regarding trading Flynn. He cannot be traded or cut until March 1st, the beginning of the NFL year. At least that was what I saw in the PFT report.

    While Seattle can’t trade (or release) Flynn until the new league year begins in March, they certainly can inquire around the league to see what the interest is once he becomes available. Flynn’s current contract calls for him to be paid $7.25 million in 2013 with $2 million guaranteed.

    Jaguars OC is talking about implementing read option so I wonder if Flynn would fit in that scheme?

    "I feel like there's certainly a place for [the zone-read offense]," Fisch said when asked about that system. "We ran some of it (at Miami), we ran no-huddle and ran the quarterback. As soon as you can run your quarterback, you have to defend another gap and if you have to defend another gap then [the defense has] one less guy. So all those things, there's a place for it. It's just about making decisions on how it fits with your team and how it fits with your personnel and if it's in the best interest of your players."

    NOTE: Notice the language Fisch and Bradley are using. I think Bradley used Faster, Stronger, Tougher during one of his interviews.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Wed Jan 23, 2013 12:19 am
  • The reason the 49ers are in the Super Bowl and not us is because they pressured and hit Matt Ryan on Atlanta's final drive (not counting their hail mary) when it mattered, and we didn't. They hit Ryan hard, injured his nonthrowing shoulder, and that little distraction was probably the difference for Ryan missing the next few passes. Not to mention a hurting Ryan couldn't even get the ball to the end zone on the Hail Mary. If we sack and pressure Matt Ryan during that game, we win easily. We also win at Detroit and Miami. So we're a 13-3 team playing the Falcons or whoever in the divisional round at home, with a healthy Chris Clemons, and then beating up on the 49ers to get to the Super Bowl.

    Notice Carroll mentions pass-rushers, plural. He's thinking always compete, and next man up. That also suggests Jason Jones may not be brought back; I have mixed feelings on that, but trust this FO. I think even Jones would have tipped the scales in our favor in the Atlanta game. I expect PC/JS to look to stockpile several DT's and DE's that can rush the passer, expecially DT's that can collapse the pocket. So I really expect they will go after Usi Umenyora, and Henry Melton, and other FA's, and be willing to pay one bigger contract if they can find the right guy, like a Melton.

    I expect Seattle will select a WR early in the draft rather than reach for a DT, since the draft is so thin at DT. WR is the other area that could really help. I was struck by how much Wilson ran around the last few games, trying to find an open receiver. So an Amendola or Welker in FA if the price is right, plus an early round draft pick WR, , and suddenly Wilson has good options. Gonzalez would be a dream come true at TE, but yeah, he'd sign with Atlanta most likely.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Wed Jan 23, 2013 12:59 am
  • kearly wrote:
    kf3339 wrote:Who do you think would be a strong pick at our pick at 25 in the first round, because I don't see anyone short of a major move up in the first. That would require probably our 1st and 2nd round picks. Also, why wouldn't they use the same method they used for Branch and Clemons to find a proven 3tech in FA or trade when there are obvious quality choices in now?

    I just don't see it, and really hope that they don't play moneyball with this offseason options. It's time to be bold.

    You are preaching to the choir. I feel exactly the same way you do and if I was GM, that's how I would do it. But I look at their history. Whatever they identify as their top need is pretty much always their 1st round pick, regardless of whether it is a good draft for that need or not. They got lucky in 2010 because needs matched a good draft class for that area, but in 2011 and 2012 they did not. Unfortunately, 2013 looks to be the 3rd year in a row where need isn't met with an obvious match in the draft.

    I totally agree with you about the D-line talent at #25 and it bothers me to no end.

    If there is a glimmer of optimism, there is a growing chance that prize 3-tech Sheldon Richardson could be in play for us. He's been steadily dropping down prospect boards by draftniks, I saw him ranked #22 on a top 50 board the other day. Obviously, draftnik rankings are hardly gospel but in the early to mid 1st round they tend to be very accurate. Maybe he won't reach #25, but it's no longer a pipe dream and if he reaches the late teens Seattle might be able to snag him while keeping their 2nd rounder.

    There are some intriguing albeit "unique" pass rushers that could go in rounds 2-5. It's possible that Seattle might decide to go that route and stockpile on misfit pass rushers after taking a non-pass rusher in round 1. That is the best coarse of action. I just hope they realize it. But right now, by gut says "most likely" we'll be looking at a DL pick at #25, and it probably won't be a pick anyone will get excited for.

    I get it. Then go get Starks on a 2 year deal so he can have a real chance at a Super Bowl ring, and get Richardson using our 1st and possibly 3rd round pick to get it done. We take care of the short and long term need for a 3tech. Richardson can learn and rotate with Starks like Jones did with Branch. What is wrong with that?

    I just want them to be bold and not let money be their primary decision. I really get sick of teams who play moneyball. I have not seen a championship team that has gone this route and been successful. Not in MLB and not to my knowledge in the NFL.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:58 am
  • I believe they will do the opposite, sign an FA DT and draft a WR in the first. This team is too clos e to dominating to pass up on a great WR in the draft for a mediocre DT who won't make significant contributions in 2013.

    We desperately need pass rush up the middle and need to improve the run defense. No DT in this draft other than Sheldon Richardson can make that kind of difference, and to pick any old DT at 25 just because we need one is a complete waste of a 1st round pick.

    I'd spend the money to sign Melton then take BPA at #25.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:14 am
  • ivotuk wrote:I believe they will do the opposite, sign an FA DT and draft a WR in the first. This team is too clos e to dominating to pass up on a great WR in the draft for a mediocre DT who won't make significant contributions in 2013.

    We desperately need pass rush up the middle and need to improve the run defense. No DT in this draft other than Sheldon Richardson can make that kind of difference, and to pick any old DT at 25 just because we need one is a complete waste of a 1st round pick.

    I'd spend the money to sign Melton then take BPA at #25.

    I agree with this, mostly. I don't think BPA will be a WR, I think it could be a LB or DE. The difference between a 1st round WR and a 2nd or 3rd round WR in this draft is nominal. The difference between Keenan Allen and Quinton Patton is smaller than you may think.

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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:06 am
  • What do you guys think about Phil Dawson as our kicker? He's a career 84.0% kicker with a career long of 56. He had a career year last year at 93.5% with a long of 53. He has always kicked outdoors in Cleveland which makes the 84.0% career avg. more impressive to me. If he's interested, I think he's a top 5 K in the league.

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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:21 am
  • Very well thought out and written. This should be pinned, as a reference as the off-season progresses.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:33 am
  • Thanks, great stuff as usual, but still unusual in it's perception. Great post.

    I'm selling out for Starks or Melton, then Umenyiora followed by drafting DeAndre Hopkins.
    Then I spend the next four rounds getting, not necessarily in this order, a right tackle, fast
    linebacker, defensive end and a defensive tackle.
    Spend the last five picks to find cornerback depth and a tight end. Maybe even a Quarterback.

    Next, I would book hotel space for the Super Bowl.
    This is a great time of year, we can let our "what ifs" run wild.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:47 am
  • I would not put it past the team to try and drop back in the draft. I agree it is so-so on DT , but with decent depth. The draft looks pretty good depth at receivers in rounds 1-4. The more I look at the draft and needs I see a weak LB , and DT or 2 for improved depth. I think the big signings will be at DT and maybe DE as free agents. I see Jones as another 1 year deal if they sign him. This is his 3rd year of missing significant playing time due to injury.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Wed Jan 23, 2013 12:07 pm
  • I want to believe, but I don't think Melton or Bryant makes it to free agency. I'll hold out hope, but I think both teams know how valuable those two are, especially Chicago with Melton. In Oakland's case, I see them letting Seymour go and keeping Bryant. Reggie McKenzie is a Green Bay guy and believes in rewarding your own. Bryant's gone from UDFA and backup to valuable contributor all along the defensive line. I just don't see it happening. Fingers crossed though.

    I'm under the impression, and perfectly content with, Starks being the lone of the "Big 3" available and the Hawks getting him for a shorter, cheaper contract than Melton/Bryant, but not too cheap since he'll be the best DT on the market. 3 yrs/18 million? What I'm still not 100% certain with is if the Hawks get Starks, do I still want them to trade up to get Sheldon Richardson or if I'd rather they stay put and get DeAndre Hopkins. Not to mention what happens with Branch and Jones, but back to DeAndre, he strikes me as a special player and I wouldn't want the 49ers even getting a chance at taking him. I shudder to think... If you put a gun to my head right now... I'd sign the DT and then go WR in the draft. I'll probably be wrong though, knowing the way our guys operate, so we'll see how it turns out. I trust them regardless.
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Re: Kearly's offseason preview
Thu Jan 24, 2013 7:10 am
  • kearly wrote:Dwayne Bowe:
    the Chiefs had serious issues at QB last season and Bowe still managed 801 yards in 13 games.

    Saying the Chiefs had serious issues at QB last season is not saying enough for Bowe. He has had issues at QB since he came to the NFL and he has still been able to have pretty productive seasons. Here is the list of his starting QBs since he was drafted.
    Matt Cassel
    Brady Quinn
    Brodie Croyle
    Tyler Thigpen
    Tyler Palko
    Kyle Orton
    Damon Huard

    I would also be extremely unhappy if I was a WR and those are the QBs that may organization decides to through out there on game day. Don't you think he would be salivating at playing for any other team in the league that has just an average QB/pass offense? It's hard to say how good Bowe could be due to the QBs and the type of offense he has played in, but with a good QB I wouldn't be surprised at all if he is one of the top WRs in the league.

    I would LOVE to have him join the Seahawks, but I think there are going to be a lot of other teams wanting to sign him as well. I would be surprised if he lasts very long.
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