Expectations for Wilson next season

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Realistic expectations for Russell Wilson next season

Picks up where he left off.
147
57%
Has a statistically worse year.
2
1%
Improves in TD/Int ratio
39
15%
Has a sophomore slump.
10
4%
Performs light years ahead of 2012 season.
62
24%
 
Total votes : 260

Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 12:46 pm
  • I expect the same numbers wise regarding balance I see it 60-40 in favor of running.
    RW will cut picks and increase TD runs....5-7 maybe? . I suspect high 20s on TD passes. Around 3800-4200 passing yards.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 12:52 pm
  • Aros wrote:Will we even lose a game in 2013?


    I think that it's incredibly likely that we lose a game in 2013. We may even lose several, but I don't think it will be more than 4.

    Unfortunately, the Seahawks don't exist in a vacuum where they improve while the rest of the league stays exactly the same. Other teams will be working to improve, getting more from their young players, and bringing in new bodies in the hopes of exceeding expectations.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 1:01 pm
  • He'll be better. No way will he hit a sophomore slump. He works too hard and does not hang his head after making a mistake or being down by 20 in the 4th qtr.

    Regarding defenses having a full year of film..child please. ATL had 17 games of film. Russell only threw for 385 yards/2 TDs and scrambled for 60 yards/1 TD. Teams might be able to shut the read option down, but he'll still beat them in the air.

    I'm most concerned about the health of the line, WRs, and Lynch. As great as Wilson is his success is still tied to the talent around him. If one of those elements gets weakened he'll be fine but if all three were to crumble the offense would struggle.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 1:08 pm
  • I think that Wilson will lead the NFL in passer rating, probably significantly. I think he will lead an absolutely dominant Seattle team and will enter the national conversation as the best QB in the NFL. I think, unfortunately, Colin Kaepernick might be in the conversation, too, although I expect Wilson to both better and less system dependent. Wilson will always be a better passer and the gap will get wider over the next couple years.

    To understand Wilson's progress over the season, note that over the last half of the season, he led the NFL in passer rating, by far, at around 120 to RG3's 110:

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... ass_rating

    Not only that, his second half was the 6th best second half for a QB ever, not just rookies:

    Passer rating, Games 9-16 of any season 1900-2012 (through Profootball reference)
    2010 Tom Brady - 128.2
    1994 Steve Young - 123.6
    2010 Aaron Rodgers - 122.0
    2011 Drew Brees - 121.6
    2004 Peyton Manning - 121.0
    2012 Russell Wilson - 120.3

    Hat tip: http://www.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/commen ... he_second/

    Last year Chip Kelly gave a Nike sponsored coaches clinic presentation called "Efficient Use of Practice Time." As Kelly is a brilliant and innovative coach it was a gold mine of information. One thing I noticed is that Kelly would not have been fooled by any of the deprecating analysis about Russell Wilson at draft time. According to Kelly's simple model of finding QB talent, Wilson is right in the sweet spot:

    "lf the quarterback is not tall, look at his hands.
    That is the biggest coaching point to finding
    a quarterback. How big are his hands, and how
    well can he control the football? The height of
    the quarterback is not the important thing. No one
    playing quarterback throws over the line. They
    throw through lanes in the linemen. The important
    thing is the size of their hand"

    Source: http://fishduck.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... mplete.pdf
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 3:25 pm
  • FlyingGreg wrote:There's a reason why Rodgers, Brady, Brees etc put up gawdy numbers every season - the talent eclipses all else. I'm not saying Wilson is in their class, ...

    Well, if you won't, I will.

    Russell Wilson is in the same class as Rodgers, Brady and Brees.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 4:13 pm
  • Great post formido.

    My expectation is that Wilson will start where he left off. If we were an east coast team, I'd predict he'd win MVP, but being what we are, I'll settle for predicting that he'll be an MVP candidate.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 4:19 pm
  • Twitter:

    Russell Wilson ‏@DangeRussWilson

    I truly dislike not being able to prepare for a game this week. Miss my teammates and fans. #GoHawks


    Heard him on the radio yesterday saying he had spent part of the day at the practice facility. He's going to New Orleans for SB weekend just to get a feel for what type of environment he needs to prepare for in the future.

    This guy is unreal. It ALMOST makes me happy that we lost in 06 if it created the butterfly effect that allowed us to get this guy.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 5:21 pm
  • 14-2
    4000+passing yards
    650 rushing yards
    34 passing TD
    8 rushing TD
    MVP of the NFL
    SuperBowl win
    GO HAWKS & Rock ON
    Those are my expectations!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    :0190l: :stirthepot: :snack: :thirishdrinkers: :les:

    Almost forgot, those are regular season #'s
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 7:11 pm
  • Where he left off, to be sure. Having said that, he'll improve, IMO, exponentially. And no more (or very little) of that Fran Tarkenton stuff. The team will improve with him and PC/JS, et al. will find a way to get him an O-line that gives him the chance to become the pocket passer so many here seem to want for him.



    and a D-line improvement, too....
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:06 pm
  • He's going to win a Super Bowl on every single play.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:32 pm
  • I expect us to win the same amont of games. Maybe 12. Wilsons stats could look like this.

    Yards 3,850 PCT 62% 32 TD's 12 INT's 625 RUSH YARDS 6 TD's

    Wilson will have a few sub 200 yard games but will have more 300 yard passing games. I think we draft a WR or get someone in FA. Wilson will throw more to Miller. Rice, Tate, Baldwin and and X wideout will step up. He'll continue to impress and will bring us a Super Bowl soon.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 21, 2013 12:16 pm
  • More TDs less ints. I don't see him picking up where he left off because I'm pretty sure he's going to try and improve some during the off season. I think he already started from what it sounds like. So I could see him getting more TDs and less ints all while performing light years ahead of 2012. Go Win Seahawks!!!!!!!!!!!!12 :icon_new:
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Thu Jan 24, 2013 11:08 pm
  • He's a bust. Start Phlem!
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Thu Jan 24, 2013 11:43 pm
  • Regular season #'s:
    12-14 wins
    3800-4000 yards passing
    65%
    32 TDs, 7 INTs
    500+ yards rushing
    5 TDs

    Post season #'s:
    3 wins
    800-1000 yards passing
    67%
    8 TDs, 1 INT
    120+ yards rushing
    2 TDs
    Superbowl MVP
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Thu Jan 24, 2013 11:48 pm
  • Knowing what we know I am not worried about his growth. Someone said no or little of that Tarkenton stuff, those roll outs and sprints or avoiding sacks is what makes him dangerous and special, don't shy away from what makes him who he is.

    I just want him to continue to be healthy, he plays smart and protects himself pretty well now, I would expect that to improve more as the game really begins to slow down for him even more.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Thu Jan 24, 2013 11:53 pm
  • At the very absolute worst, he'll continue where he left off. I Think we'll see a light improvement, and more consistency, and it will be yearlong without this seasons growing/learning pains throughout the first half of the Season.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:35 am
  • First years at NC State:
    Balancing school work, baseball, and football = exceptional player (tops in the conference)

    Year at Wisconsin:
    Balancing school work and football = nationally recognized player (among top 3 QBs in country / best passer rating)

    First year at Seattle:
    Rookie experience and shared early season practice time = nationally recognized player (among top 3 rookie QBs and top 10 QBs in NFL)

    He now can devote a 100% of his work effort toward his craft. With the resources currently available through a professional team coupled with his effort and focus, it'll be interesting to see what kind of leap he makes next year. There has to be a ceiling for what kind of productivity he can have in his career, but I'm guessing we'll see him get pretty close to it next year.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 25, 2013 6:02 am
  • I was thinking about this last night, so I'm glad this topic exists.

    I'm gonna go with:

    13-3 or 14-2 as a starter, not sure yet, but for the sake of the thread I'll go with 14-2
    4240 Yards Passing (265 per game, not too crazy to imagine)
    40 Passing TD's (2.5 per game, again, nothing crazy)
    800 Rushing Yards (50 per game, realistic)
    8 Rushing TD's (.5 per game, might be a stretch but nothing would surprise me with him)
    4 INT (Not as many fluke dropped INT's, reverts to Wisconsin/NC State form)
    70% Completion
    Finishes as the runner up for MVP but his perceived "robbery" by the nation wins him even more fans and he becomes the nation's favorite QB and player in the NFL. A bigger name like Rodgers gets the award but many will want Russell to win it.

    Hawks go to the postseason as the #1 seed and win it all, Wilson wins Super Bowl MVP. Thus, the dynasty starts.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Fri Jan 25, 2013 6:45 am
  • formido wrote:I think that Wilson will lead the NFL in passer rating, probably significantly. I think he will lead an absolutely dominant Seattle team and will enter the national conversation as the best QB in the NFL. I think, unfortunately, Colin Kaepernick might be in the conversation, too, although I expect Wilson to both better and less system dependent. Wilson will always be a better passer and the gap will get wider over the next couple years.

    To understand Wilson's progress over the season, note that over the last half of the season, he led the NFL in passer rating, by far, at around 120 to RG3's 110:

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... ass_rating

    Not only that, his second half was the 6th best second half for a QB ever, not just rookies:

    Passer rating, Games 9-16 of any season 1900-2012 (through Profootball reference)
    2010 Tom Brady - 128.2
    1994 Steve Young - 123.6
    2010 Aaron Rodgers - 122.0
    2011 Drew Brees - 121.6
    2004 Peyton Manning - 121.0
    2012 Russell Wilson - 120.3

    Hat tip: http://www.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/commen ... he_second/

    Last year Chip Kelly gave a Nike sponsored coaches clinic presentation called "Efficient Use of Practice Time." As Kelly is a brilliant and innovative coach it was a gold mine of information. One thing I noticed is that Kelly would not have been fooled by any of the deprecating analysis about Russell Wilson at draft time. According to Kelly's simple model of finding QB talent, Wilson is right in the sweet spot:

    "lf the quarterback is not tall, look at his hands.
    That is the biggest coaching point to finding
    a quarterback. How big are his hands, and how
    well can he control the football? The height of
    the quarterback is not the important thing. No one
    playing quarterback throws over the line. They
    throw through lanes in the linemen. The important
    thing is the size of their hand"

    Source: http://fishduck.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... mplete.pdf


    Only 6th all time? SO!! He is not a "God" after all!. LOL

    OR....Is he ?????
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:19 pm
  • Voted picks up where he left off.

    I think no matter what his TD/int ratio will remain good, yardage-wise I expect better. How much better depends on this: there were games last year, especially the early games, where we'd stay run-first WAY too long. I hope they've learned their lesson, if the other team is stopping the run, let Russ throw on 1st down a lot more and let it be the RW show until we get a lead and then fine go back to grinding it out.

    I also expect him, now that we've discovered Zach Miller, to continue to torture teams with that, so I think that's another boost to his yardage totals.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:27 pm
  • I expect he ant little man Tate to really click after an off-season together watching film and dissecting defenses weak points and adjusting hot reads…. I also expect that be season’s end Russ will have viewed every existing NFL tape.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:05 pm
  • chris98251 wrote:Knowing what we know I am not worried about his growth. Someone said no or little of that Tarkenton stuff, those roll outs and sprints or avoiding sacks is what makes him dangerous and special, don't shy away from what makes him who he is.

    I just want him to continue to be healthy, he plays smart and protects himself pretty well now, I would expect that to improve more as the game really begins to slow down for him even more.


    This. :th2thumbs: Wilson's elusive that's what makes him so dangerous for other teams to try and defend against. I don't want to see him become sack city. Hopefully the line will be better next year so he won't HAVE to run as much, but I don't ever want to see him give it up. It's part of what makes him so great.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:40 am
  • NYCoug wrote:I was thinking about this last night, so I'm glad this topic exists.

    I'm gonna go with:

    13-3 or 14-2 as a starter, not sure yet, but for the sake of the thread I'll go with 14-2
    4240 Yards Passing (265 per game, not too crazy to imagine)
    40 Passing TD's (2.5 per game, again, nothing crazy)
    800 Rushing Yards (50 per game, realistic)
    8 Rushing TD's (.5 per game, might be a stretch but nothing would surprise me with him)
    4 INT (Not as many fluke dropped INT's, reverts to Wisconsin/NC State form)
    70% Completion
    Finishes as the runner up for MVP but his perceived "robbery" by the nation wins him even more fans and he becomes the nation's favorite QB and player in the NFL. A bigger name like Rodgers gets the award but many will want Russell to win it.

    Hawks go to the postseason as the #1 seed and win it all, Wilson wins Super Bowl MVP. Thus, the dynasty starts.


    Only 4 interceptions? I don't think any QB has started 16 games and thrown only 4 interceptions.

    70% completion rate? You realize that's only happened once right?

    I love Russell but pass the homer-ade.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:25 am
  • WestcoastSteve wrote:Only 4 interceptions? I don't think any QB has started 16 games and thrown only 4 interceptions.

    70% completion rate? You realize that's only happened once right?

    I love Russell but pass the homer-ade.


    Brady had just 4 interceptions in 2010.

    I think Wilson will continue with the form shown in the final 8 games of the season, which is MVP-worthy. We also face 8 defenses which ranked in the bottom 12 in pass defense this season past - and in that 8 game spell to close out the season, Wilson faced FIVE top 10 pass defenses out of a possible 9 (obiously he can't face us).
    It's not out of reason to believe he could have a high TD low INT season - though I don't know if I agree with 4 INTs and 70% completion, I'm thinking more like a 35-6 season with between 5 and 10 rushing TDs and 67% completion
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:50 am
  • Expectations will be high........higher than any QB or team in Hawk history. The good news is we have the talent to go all the way, as long as the team can stay healthy there's no reason not to expect it all.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:57 am
  • i picked light years which is a bit misleading... i think he'll pick up from where he left off, but he'll have a season far better than last season for obvious reasons... i think he still has some growth to make, a few key weapons on Offense, and the sky's the limit for next season..

    if we can get the right key players on the defensive side of the ball, it's SB bound time.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:00 am
  • lobohawk wrote:First years at NC State:
    Balancing school work, baseball, and football = exceptional player (tops in the conference)

    Year at Wisconsin:
    Balancing school work and football = nationally recognized player (among top 3 QBs in country / best passer rating)

    First year at Seattle:
    Rookie experience and shared early season practice time = nationally recognized player (among top 3 rookie QBs and top 10 QBs in NFL)

    He now can devote a 100% of his work effort toward his craft. With the resources currently available through a professional team coupled with his effort and focus, it'll be interesting to see what kind of leap he makes next year. There has to be a ceiling for what kind of productivity he can have in his career, but I'm guessing we'll see him get pretty close to it next year.


    Quality post here and I agree--thanks for contributing!
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:15 am
  • Thank you for the post, Formido. Very interesting stuff.

    Unfortunately, I chose sophmore slump. I hope I'm wrong, but if teams stop Russell in the read option, that eliminates a large amount of the yardage our offense was gaining in the second half of the season.

    But if anybody can prove me wrong, it's Russell Wilson!
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:44 am
  • Jerhawk wrote:
    Unfortunately, I chose sophmore slump. I hope I'm wrong, but if teams stop Russell in the read option, that eliminates a large amount of the yardage our offense was gaining in the second half of the season


    IMO the way we play offense is slump proof. If this was the Colts where we expect Russell to throw it 50-60 times a game like Luck, or the Skins where they expect RG3 to carry 80% of the offensive load and get hurt again, then I'd agree with you.

    But the Hawks are predicated on 60% run, so all Wilson has to do is exactly what he's been doing............hand the ball off to BeastMode 25 times, manage the game, read defenses and make a few plays here and there.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:46 pm
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:
    Jerhawk wrote:
    Unfortunately, I chose sophmore slump. I hope I'm wrong, but if teams stop Russell in the read option, that eliminates a large amount of the yardage our offense was gaining in the second half of the season


    IMO the way we play offense is slump proof. If this was the Colts where we expect Russell to throw it 50-60 times a game like Luck, or the Skins where they expect RG3 to carry 80% of the offensive load and get hurt again, then I'd agree with you.

    But the Hawks are predicated on 60% run, so all Wilson has to do is exactly what he's been doing............hand the ball off to BeastMode 25 times, manage the game, read defenses and make a few plays here and there.


    Dear god, I hope Bevell and Carroll aren't stupid enough to limit Wilson and treat him like a game manager next year.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:38 pm
  • I agree with 1.3 and 5, so I choose 5
    I don't know why I bother... no one cares what I think.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Tue Jan 29, 2013 7:04 pm
  • The important question is: what kind of year with Lynch have? And if his ailments catch up to him, will Turbin fill the void?

    Wilson's going to be fine.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:16 pm
  • The question is whether or not the league learns to set the edges and really stop these QBs who can buy time and get away. Next year could be different but I doubt it, not by much. Russel just doesn't get sacked. I thought he looked nervous and iffy in the beginning of the year, but he kind of made his own art of scrambling, he figured it out.

    I'd have to think many of those plays didn't turn out as drawn up, but successful nonetheless. Due to Russell just finding space to throw. A little 'out of control' but at the same time, totally in Russel's control. That would usually make me nervous, depending on such play to win, but the dude sets the rookie TD record doing it.

    It depends on how the team wants to move forward. And that depends on how the league adjusts, but I think it's safe to say there's going to be a whole lot more of Russel avoiding sacks like a family circus cartoon (...the little line drawn all around the field, I always think that with him..lol), and completing passes. Things looking up for RW.
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Re: Expectations for Wilson next season
Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:16 pm
  • themunn wrote:
    WestcoastSteve wrote:Only 4 interceptions? I don't think any QB has started 16 games and thrown only 4 interceptions.

    70% completion rate? You realize that's only happened once right?

    I love Russell but pass the homer-ade.


    Brady had just 4 interceptions in 2010.

    I think Wilson will continue with the form shown in the final 8 games of the season, which is MVP-worthy. We also face 8 defenses which ranked in the bottom 12 in pass defense this season past - and in that 8 game spell to close out the season, Wilson faced FIVE top 10 pass defenses out of a possible 9 (obiously he can't face us).
    It's not out of reason to believe he could have a high TD low INT season - though I don't know if I agree with 4 INTs and 70% completion, I'm thinking more like a 35-6 season with between 5 and 10 rushing TDs and 67% completion


    I believe you are very close to what shall occur. Wilson has taken the WRs aside and they are all on board with "The Separation Is In The Preparation" thing 100% He is making many plans and scenerios in his mind and sharing these ideas with the WRs from the films he has studied. Once the rookie he has risen by his own will and dedication to his plan to the undesputed leader of the Seahawk offensive players. There isn't a player on the Seahawks team that doesn't know that there is no QB playing in the NFL that could have done what he did that afternoon in Chicago. There is no QB playing in the NFL including Brady that could have done what Wilson did in Atlanta. Brady played lights out at home in an attempt to come back from the 9ers but that was in NE.

    I've never heard of a QB and recievers on a winning team not take off immediately after their last game.

    There WILL be separation for his recievers and Wilson will find them because he NEVER stops looking downfield.

    Next year is going to be so exciting that I cannot stand the anticipation.

    Other coaches will try to stop him but by gametime next fall Wilson will have seen it all and be ready.

    His recievers will have seen every coverage that has been played and they will be ready.

    Hail WILSON!!!!!
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